Question Answer
Question:
The American President was among the first to congratulate the Janata Party and its leader, Modi, on their victory, inviting him to visit Washington. On June 5, 2014, it was announced that Modi would make this visit in September. On May 26, 2014, the inauguration ceremony for India’s new Prime Minister, Modi, took place after his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, won a landslide majority, securing 282 seats out of a total of 545 parliamentary seats (minus two appointed by the President). This dealt a historic and ignominious defeat to the Indian National Congress Party, which obtained only 44 seats. For the first time, a Pakistani Prime Minister attended such a ceremony after being invited by Modi and meeting with him. What are the indications of this? How will relations between the two countries proceed within American policy and its plans for the two nations and the region, and what are the repercussions for China and Afghanistan?
Answer:
- American support for Modi during the elections was remarkable. The campaign to polish Modi’s image was not limited to India but extended to a wide array of sympathetic Hindu organizations residing abroad, especially in America. They sought to promote "Modi" as a leader for all Indians, willing to work alongside minorities without exception. Among the organizations that stood by Modi were the Indian American Foundation and the Indian American Political Action Committee. These organizations coordinated and cooperated with branches directly or indirectly affiliated with the Bharatiya Janata Party, such as the Foreign Affairs Cell and Overseas Friends of Bharatiya Janata Party, not to mention thousands of Indians residing in America and elsewhere.
Perhaps what confirms this overwhelming support for the party is what the American Enterprise Institute in Washington published: that most of the funds raised abroad to finance the election campaign were directed to the Bharatiya Janata Party. Furthermore, more than ten thousand Indians holding American and European citizenships, who support policies that stimulate corporations and the market economy, flocked to India during the election campaign to support Modi and urge voters to give him their voices. Naturally, this momentum generated by the intense support of the party’s friends, the supporters of its policies, and Modi’s followers played a major role in elevating his status and marginalizing the election campaigns of other parties.
In any case, it is clear that urgent American interests in the Far East were behind the victory of the Hindu extremist Modi. An article published by BBC Arabic on May 19, 2014, titled "Viewpoint: How will Modi affect Indo-American relations?" quoted Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation under the heading "Working with Modi": "New Delhi and Washington share strategic goals, whether they involve fighting terrorism, keeping sea lanes open, or confronting the rise of China. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s particular interest in adopting a more assertive hedging policy toward China will give American officials an opportunity to deal with it closely." Additionally, US President Barack Obama invited Modi to visit the United States when he called him on Friday to congratulate him on the victory, according to a White House statement. Obama told Modi that he looked forward to a working relationship with him aimed at "achieving the extraordinary promise of a strategic partnership between the United States and India," as reported by BBC Arabic on May 16, 2014. Obama added that the "President extended an invitation to Modi at a mutually agreed time to further strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries."
- Thus, we saw American eagerness for the victory of the Janata Party led by Modi immediately after the election process ended and before the final and official results were announced. The Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported on May 12, 2014: "Obama praised the Indian elections that just ended on May 12, 2014, as preliminary results showed the Bharatiya Janata Party winning, urging the appearance of the final results on May 16, 2014," saying: "We are eager to see the formation of the new Indian government and to work closely with the new Indian administration so that the coming years are productive..." This indicates the extent of America’s desire for the victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party headed by Modi to cooperate with it, just as this party cooperated with it under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee when it was in power between 1998 and 2004. Now, as well, when the official victory of this party was announced on May 16, 2014, Obama congratulated its leader Modi by phone and invited him to visit Washington to meet him. The American President indicated in his phone call with Modi that he "looks forward to working closely with Modi to advance the extraordinary and promising strategic partnership between the United States and India," and they "agreed to continue expanding and deepening cooperation on a wide scale" (NDTV, May 17, 2014). On June 5, 2014, two Indian newspapers, The Times of India and Hindustan Times, published news that Modi’s visit to Washington would be in the coming September to meet the American President. All this indicates that America is confident that India, under the leadership of this party and its leader Modi, will walk with it under the name of an "extraordinary strategic partnership." News reports earlier this year mentioned meetings between the US Ambassador to India and Modi, the leader of the Janata Party, before the elections, indicating the drawing of joint plans that Modi would carry out after his election in accordance with American policy.
America rejoiced at Modi's success and the return of the Janata Party to power after ten years of rule by the Congress Party, during which relations between America and India were not in good shape, as it did not respond much to America, especially regarding the issue of confronting China. Therefore, Obama rushed the announcement of the election results in India to declare his joy at the return of America’s agents to power. His joy made him forget the American decision to ban Modi from entering the United States because of the massacres of Muslims in Gujarat State when Modi was its Chief Minister. This is a lesson for those deceived by America’s claims of human rights; America discards all human rights if it serves its interests. America’s decision to ban Modi has turned into a warm welcome for his victory and a celebratory invitation for Modi’s upcoming visit to the United States.
Consequently, America is in the height of its ecstasy over the return of the Janata Party to power, as those loyal to America are now the rulers in both India and Pakistan. Therefore, it is expected that America will ask its agents in Pakistan, led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to provide more concessions to India to strengthen its position—meaning India’s position—in facing China. In other words, America wants to stop the state of conflict between Pakistan and India, but at Pakistan’s expense. The main issue weighing heavily on bilateral relations is the disputed Kashmir region, followed by the existence of active armed Islamic groups in India, which New Delhi accuses Pakistan of supporting. It is expected that America will pressure its agent Nawaz Sharif to make large and dangerous concessions in favor of India in Kashmir to satisfy the Hindu extremist Narendra Modi and his party. America will also demand that Nawaz Sharif pursue the Mujahideen in Kashmir to eliminate so-called "terrorism," so that India can devote itself to the confrontation with a rising China.
Something similar happened when the Janata Party was in power between 1998 and 2004, when Pakistan made concessions in Kashmir in favor of India to strengthen America’s agents there and consolidate its influence. Nawaz Sharif ordered the Pakistani army to withdraw from the Kargil heights after the army and the Mujahideen had liberated them in their heroic battles. This occurred after Nawaz Sharif visited America and met with its president at the time, Bill Clinton, on July 4, 1999, where America pressured him to withdraw, and he submitted and ordered the withdrawal. Here is Nawaz now, continuing the concessions. One of the signs was Nawaz Sharif’s participation in the inauguration ceremony of India’s new Prime Minister Modi on May 26, 2014, and his ninety-minute meeting with him. Modi told him: "Pakistan must prevent militants on its territory from launching attacks on India and must punish those who carried out the attack on Mumbai in 2008" (Reuters, May 27, 2014). However, Nawaz Sharif showed weakness and submissiveness, failing to counter this with a response of at least an equal level. Instead, he told reporters: "He held a warm and friendly bilateral meeting with Modi." He says these words while the events in the Indian state of Gujarat are still fresh in the minds of Muslims. In 2002, when Narendra Modi became the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Hindus committed atrocities against Muslims that led to the killing of more than 2,000 Muslims and the displacement of about 100,000 of them. They are still suffering from the repercussions of this displacement and have not returned to their homes, receiving no help from the regional or central government in India. Similarly, he did not raise the issue of India’s support for separatists in the Balochistan province of Pakistan. Thus, instead of Nawaz Sharif confronting the new Indian Prime Minister Modi and throwing all of this in his face at the very least, he was submissive before him according to the requirements of American policy for Pakistan to appease India!
From another perspective, it appears that America is giving India a role in Afghanistan and working to strengthen relations between these two countries so that it no longer needs Pakistan to promote stability there. The first president Modi met with at his inauguration was Karzai of Afghanistan. America trusts India when the government is loyal to it, as is the case now, more than it trusts Pakistan, even though the government in Pakistan is loyal to it. It fears that any change might occur in this Islamic country at any moment; it is not secure for it in the long term. Its people are in a movement for change, and there is a real and serious direction toward liberation and freedom from the West in general and America in particular, which dominates the regime and brings in agent rulers, in addition to its grip on the army leadership. Thus, America has established pillars for itself in the political and military leadership in Pakistan. America fears that the Ummah will destroy all the pillars America has built, and its greatest fear is that the Ummah will establish the rule of Islam and declare the Khilafah. This is what worries America. Therefore, it is not content with relying on the Pakistani regime to arrange matters in Afghanistan after achieving the "withdrawal" of American soldiers from there. Rather, it wants to give India an active role in Afghanistan in arranging those conditions by strengthening security cooperation between India and Afghanistan, making its reliance on India greater from a security perspective after the exit of American and Western forces from there. The Christian Science Monitor published a report on June 1, 2014, on Indo-Afghan relations, stating: "When Afghan President Hamid Karzai attended the inauguration of India's new Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week, Karzai brought with him a list of dramatic requests that Afghanistan wants to obtain, including tanks, weapons, trucks, and helicopters." The newspaper added: "Karzai's requests coincided with increasing discussions within the Indian government and military circles about whether New Delhi would intensify its military aid to Kabul or not..." The newspaper continued: "India shares warm traditional relations with Afghanistan and has become a strategic partner and friend to Kabul, after distancing itself during the period of Taliban rule." Thus, India, under the pro-American Modi, will play an active role from a security perspective in Afghanistan for the benefit of the pro-American regime there.
As for China, its influence has increased over the past two decades as it worked to strengthen itself in its region. The United States is working to curb China through the countries surrounding it, such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. For this reason, the United States has formed various alliances and partnerships to contain China and keep it occupied with the countries on its borders. America saw India in the subcontinent as a suitable country to confront China, due to its past hostility with it over various border disputes.
Thus, America wanted to use India effectively to increase pressure on China, to encircle it, and prevent it from controlling the surrounding areas, keeping it confined within its territory and preoccupied with India and the protection of its borders. Therefore, America announced its plan two years ago concerning the Asia-Pacific. Part of this policy was mobilizing about 60% of its naval power to confront China in this region and establishing alliances with regional countries to mobilize them alongside it and direct them to work against China. Among these countries is India, which it worked to direct toward the East Pacific region, specifically in the South China Sea, and tried to entice it with the presence of energy sources such as oil and gas. However, the Indian government, led by the Congress Party, did not respond much to America in this direction. This was despite America putting all its weight into attracting India under the leadership of the Congress Party, sending Vice President Joe Biden as well as Secretary of State John Kerry in the middle of last year for this purpose. It also pushed Australia to establish a partnership with India and pressured Pakistan to make concessions to India, including withdrawing its forces from the border region with India so that India could transfer its forces and interests toward the border with China. George Bush had visited India in March 2006 during the era of the Congress Party and signed numerous agreements supporting India, including in the field of developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Obama also visited India in November 2010. All of this was to influence the ruling Congress Party in India and draw it toward American policy. However, America was unable to influence it to follow American policy in the region or to be an effective partner alongside it in implementing its policy. This was due to the Indian Congress Party’s loyalty to the British and its criticism of American policy. The party's manifesto in the 2005 elections indicates this, stating: "It is sad that a great country like India has been turned into a mere subordinate relationship with the United States of America, such that the US government considers India's (loyalty) a guaranteed matter. This led to the BJP governments' readiness to adjust their (policies) according to US priorities and policies without the necessary regard for India's own vital foreign policy and national security interests."
Thus, America did not succeed in convincing the Congress Party to implement American policy toward China. In addition, the United States failed to make the Indian army leadership focus on positioning its army away from Pakistan and toward China. The Indian army focuses on internal stability, Kashmir, and its borders with Pakistan. Seven of India's nine armies, plus three brigades, are deployed along the border with Pakistan. Furthermore, 80% of its main forward bases are directed against Pakistan.
But now that the Janata Party has won the elections in May 2014—a party that has always been loyal to the United States since the time of Vajpayee in the nineties—another opportunity has arisen for America to place India in confrontation with China. The major obstacle to making India face China—the presence of the Congress Party in power—has been removed. It has become easy for America to convince the loyalist Janata Party to focus the Indian army on the Chinese border instead of the border with Pakistan, especially since the United States guarantees to the Janata Party that the Pakistani leadership will focus the Pakistani army toward the northern regions and reduce its numbers and equipment on the Indian border, given the submission of the military and political leadership in Pakistan to American requirements! For the record, the Pakistani ground forces are mainly organized into 13 armies, nine of which are deployed near the Indian border. Since Musharraf and Kayani, military operations in the northern regions and the Swat region have led to the transfer of some of these armies away from the Indian border.
In January 2013, General Kayani announced the country's strategic doctrine, adjusting the military posture and defining internal threats as the greatest danger to the country's security rather than India. Thus, Pakistan is shifting its focus from the Indian border to the northern regions of Pakistan adjacent to Afghanistan. However, India did not reciprocate Pakistan’s step; rather, it still views Pakistan as its primary threat and was reluctant to move its forces entirely away from the Pakistani border.
In any case, now that the regimes in both India and Pakistan are implementing American policy, America will continue to occupy Pakistan with the matter of Afghanistan and the northern regions. Consequently, there will no longer be a justification for the large Indian military presence on the border with Pakistan, allowing India to focus on confronting China. For this reason, the United States will provide military equipment to India through security deals. With the BJP now in power—a party that has long wanted to play the role of the subcontinent’s policeman—it will continue on this path. It is expected that America will offer India economic deals such as investment in Indian companies and technology transfer to help the Indian economy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to highlight its military expansion by seeking energy in the South China Seas.
America is interested in strengthening strategic cooperation to contain China and neutralize its activity by bringing it under control, with India emerging as a competing power to China. This is especially true since the Janata Party won the elections with a majority of votes, allowing it to hold power alone. This makes it easier for America to move India in the direction of China, especially in the following areas:
a- Raising the issue of Tibet’s independence and the ongoing dispute between China and India over the borders of the Ladakh region.
b- Trade routes; specifically, the security aspect of trade routes passing through the China Sea, which account for 50% of international shipping.
All of this creates problems that occupy China in solving them, thereby confining it to surrounding areas according to the American policy prepared toward China. It seems that America has succeeded in moving Modi toward China; Modi appointed the former army chief, V.K. Singh, as the Union Minister for the Northeast region to reform national security there, which Modi says became weak under the previous government and in dealing with China. Singh told reporters after taking his new post last Thursday: "The development of the Northeast will be my top priority." It is expected that Singh may revive India’s plan to create a force of 80,000 soldiers along the border with China in the Northeast.
Thus, America is proceeding with its plan to move India toward China after securing India's borders from the Pakistani side. It commands the Pakistani leadership to direct the Pakistani army to the borders with Afghanistan and the northern regions to engage in fighting with its Muslim brothers, instead of directing the army's attention to breaking the captivity of Kashmir and liberating it, as is the duty that Allah has imposed on Muslims—that they do not enable the enemies of Allah to have authority over any of the lands of the Muslims.
وَلَنْ يَجْعَلَ اللَّهُ لِلْكَافِرِينَ عَلَى الْمُؤْمِنِينَ سَبِيلًا
"And never will Allah grant to the disbelievers a way [to triumph] over the believers." (QS. An-Nisa [4]: 141)
America has exceeded the most hardened colonialists in its crimes, conspiracies, and violation of nations. For the sake of its colonial interests, it does not hesitate to commit every crime and conspiracy. It conspires against China openly and conspires against India secretly, portraying to it that standing up to China by land and sea is in India’s interest, enticing it with aid and strategic agreements. All of this will ultimately cause harm to India, as China is stronger than it materially and intellectually. Nonetheless, China and India are two countries that have nothing in common, so their conflict is not strange. What is strange, however, is that the regime in Pakistan and the regime in Afghanistan are implementing American policy, which necessitates the killing of Muslims in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Even more strange is that these two oppressive regimes still dominate the people! The duty of this Ummah, which Allah has honored with Islam, is to adhere to it and be judged by it, to remove these regimes, and to establish the State of Islam anew, the Rightly Guided Khilafah. Then it will trample America and its conspiracies, and Afghanistan, Pakistan, and all Muslim lands will return as brothers, servants of Allah.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice * In the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (QS. Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)