Question:
Events in Kyrgyzstan accelerated, with the opposition moving in a coup against Bakiyev on 8/4/2010, succeeding and seizing power. Bakiyev fled to his birthplace in the south of the country, and today, 16/4/2010, he has submitted his resignation and left for Kazakhstan... At the same time, Russia was the first to recognize and bless the coup, as the interim Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva held official (telephone) talks with Russian Prime Minister Putin on Thursday, 8/4/2010—the very day the interim government took control. This means Russia is behind what happened. If this is true, how did Russia turn on Bakiyev, considering it was Russia that brought him to power in the coup against Askar Akayev in 2005 and supported his recent election on 23/7/2009? Was his failure to close the American Manas base the reason that provoked Russia to topple him?
Answer:
Yes, all evidence indicates that Russia was behind the toppling of Bakiyev, but not because he did not close the Manas base or because he renewed the Americans' lease of the base. This is because Russia had agreed to the base remaining and to Bakiyev staying in power; in fact, it supported his election on 23/7/2009 after he had renewed the base lease agreement on 15/7/2009—that is, before his re-election and the Russian support for him. The Russian support for his election was striking, as Russian President Medvedev himself came to Kyrgyzstan and participated in the inauguration ceremony held for Bakiyev on 2/8/2009!
The Russians were not provoked by the renewal of the base lease; rather, they had agreed to it. Even the current new government brought in by the Russians has agreed to the base staying, and the coup leaders have stated this. Russia originally agreed to the renewal of the base contract to appease America and ward off its harm in this region, and because it considers the Manas base a "transit" point—meaning passage to and from Afghanistan, a Muslim country that is an enemy to both of them. This base has nothing to do with internal activities that would affect Russian influence.
However, what provoked the Russians and caused them to orchestrate the coup against their former agent, Bakiyev, was something else. To understand it, we note the following events:
Richard Holbrooke, the US President's envoy to Afghanistan, visited Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on 19/2/2010, meeting with the presidents of both countries. The "Russia Today" website, citing the Russian "Interfax" agency on 19/2/2010, reported that Holbrooke discussed with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev: "The prospects of bilateral relations and the situation in Afghanistan. Both parties exchanged views away from the spotlight on the situation in Afghanistan and discussed ways to activate mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries." It mentioned that the Kyrgyz presidential press office quoted Bakiyev as saying that "his country gives importance and priority to developing Kyrgyz-American relations and activating bilateral cooperation." While reporting the news, the Russian agency "Interfax" added the phrase "and both parties exchanged [views] away from the spotlight," meaning secretly, away from the eyes of the Russians so they would not know what their agent Bakiyev had agreed upon with the Americans. This was a hint and an insinuation from the Russians that something had occurred between the Kyrgyz president and the Americans.
"Russia Today" reported on 17/3/2010 that "the United States recently announced the allocation of 5.5 million dollars to help Kyrgyzstan build a training center for special counter-terrorism units in the city of Batken." "Russia Today" asked Alexander Knyazev, director of the Bishkek branch of the Institute of CIS Countries, about this center, and he said: "Washington may use this center to meet its needs in Central Asia. The slogan of fighting terrorism is nothing but a pretext to achieve American goals, as in Iraq and Afghanistan." He added: "Washington seeks, through these projects in Central Asia, to counter Russian and Chinese competition in the region."
The Russians felt apprehensive about Holbrooke’s visit to Kyrgyzstan and his meeting with President Bakiyev away from the spotlight, and the secret agreements reached between the two parties. This culminated in the establishment of an American center in Kyrgyzstan to train special forces and recruit agents under the pretext of the so-called "war on terror," so that America could strengthen its influence in Kyrgyzstan and then move from there to other regions.
The agreement to establish an American center for training special forces—or in other words, for graduating American agents in Kyrgyzstan—was a sounding of the alarm and a move toward crossing red lines for Russia. Therefore, it rushed to carry out the coup to prevent Bakiyev from going further in his relationship with America. Russia's euphoria of "victory" in executing the coup against Bakiyev and toppling him was evident.
As for America, it was shocked. The official spokesperson for its State Department, Philip Crowley, announced "his country’s deep concern over the disturbances taking place in Kyrgyzstan," saying: "We believe that the government is still in power, and that the United States has no information that the opposition has seized power," (World News 7/4/2010)... This indicates that America was worried about the change taking place and did not support the opposition, but stood with Bakiyev’s government. America closed its base in Kyrgyzstan for three days and then reopened it after the interim Kyrgyz Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva stated that the American base would not be touched and would remain as it was according to previous agreements.
In submission to reality, the United States has implicitly recognized the new government by sending an envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake, to hold talks with the new government in Kyrgyzstan. This envoy announced the United States' satisfaction with the new authorities' promises to ensure the continuity of the American Manas base and not to interfere with it, describing that news as wonderful. America currently wants to deal with the new reality, especially since it has guaranteed the survival of its Manas Air Base. It appears that it cannot do anything against this new reality at present, as Bakiyev fled to his village in the south of the country, then resigned and left for Kazakhstan...
Thus, America found no choice but to deal with the new reality, even if temporarily. It negotiated with Russia regarding the current situation in Kyrgyzstan. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin met with US Ambassador to Moscow John Beyrle on 13/4/2010 and discussed the situation in Kyrgyzstan, showing that they had reached an agreement... as they called for: "the return of normal life in the country!" Despite all this, the conflict will continue between Russia and America there, and this will manifest in various actions and forms, and in political, economic, and social unrest...
2nd of Jumada al-Ula 1431 AH 16/4/2010 CE