Question:
A referendum will be held in the United Kingdom on whether to remain in the European Union on June 23, 2016. This referendum comes at a sensitive time for the European Union, which is still suffering from the economic crisis that began in 2008. Questions are being raised about the possibility of the European Union’s survival if Britain withdraws, and whether it can have a future regardless of the referendum's outcome. Questions are also being raised in the United Kingdom about Britain's role in the world, as the referendum has many implications. What is expected from this referendum? May Allah reward you with KHAYR.
Answer:
To anticipate what might happen, we should review how the Union was established and Britain's stance toward it:
1- The roots of the formation of the European Union after World War II in 1945 were represented in the desire to unify Europe so that there would be no more wars on the continent. The European continent has a long history of wars. Winston Churchill, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the time, supported this idea and suggested that Europe should have "a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom... a kind of United States of Europe." At that time, after the destruction left by World War II, Britain did not take this idea of a united Europe seriously, nor did it even imagine it possible. When the European Coal and Steel Community was established in 1951, and the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, Britain did not join. It feared that a united Europe would threaten British authority; therefore, it took a "wait and see" approach to see if the Union would survive. On the other hand, Britain’s non-participation led to the weakening of the Union from the beginning, because a major European power was not part of it. One of the original architects of the Union, the Frenchman Jean Monnet, said: "I never understood why the British did not join. I came to the conclusion that it must have been because of the price of victory - the illusion that you could maintain what you had without change." (BBC, 01/04/2014).
2- By 1960, the European Union had stabilized, and British politicians realized that being outside the EU meant they had no influence over it. British politicians realized they needed to be at Europe's leadership table to influence it and ensure it did not unify to a degree that would make Britain weak and insignificant. Therefore, in 1961, it submitted an application to join the Union, but its entry was rejected—twice—by French President Charles de Gaulle. He sought to keep Britain out of Europe because he understood that Britain's strategy was to prevent the unification of Europe. He accused Britain of "deep hostility" toward the European entity. However, De Gaulle resigned from the French presidency in 1969 and died a year later. His successor, Georges Pompidou, met with British Prime Minister Edward Heath in 1971 and, after long negotiations, granted Britain membership in the European Union.
3- Immediately afterward, under the Conservative Party, Britain began calling for a renegotiation of the terms of its accession to the Union in an attempt to undermine it. When the Labour Party came to power in 1974, its leadership used renegotiation to threaten EU leaders by requesting that the terms of the renegotiation be presented to the public in a general referendum. Then, West German leader Helmut Schmidt and British Prime Minister Harold Wilson reached a deal to keep Britain in the EU, with Schmidt giving some concessions to show that the British government had achieved its goal of renegotiation. The three main parties in Britain campaigned fully to keep Britain in the EU; after the referendum in 1975, 67% of voters voted in favor of staying in the Union, which at that time was merely a free trade area. By 1980, Union leaders were focusing on increasing integration and moving toward a more federal Europe and a single currency. The EU was moving toward a political union and a single market, making Britain just another integrated country in Europe like Belgium! This also meant Britain giving up some of its sovereignty, authority, and parliamentary laws in favor of the European Parliament in Brussels. Although Margaret Thatcher initially supported Europe, in 1988, she delivered a speech in Bruges, Belgium, clarifying the British position, where she rejected "a European superstate exercising a new dominance from Brussels." This led to a split in the Conservative Party that still exists today, which eventually led to her downfall. Thus, Britain failed to keep the EU divided and eventually signed the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, which led to a broad transfer of power to the new European Union, but Britain secured an "opt-out" from the single currency.
4- During Margaret Thatcher's government (1979–1990), differences deepened significantly between Conservative politicians and the political class. Several ministers resigned, including Geoffrey Howe, the Deputy Prime Minister. While there was no opposition to the EU in 1971, opposition grew as some politicians saw Britain giving up too much power to Europe. Professor Bogdanor, an expert in British history at King's College London, said: "Europe has been a toxic issue in British politics, not just because it caused division between the two sides, but because of deep divisions within the [British] parties as well. Some might see that the primary conflict in post-war British politics is not so much between left and right as it is between those who believe Britain's future lies in Europe and those who do not." (BBC, 01/04/2014).
5- There were two issues on which politicians and much of the British public diverged: sovereignty and nationalism. Joining the EU meant transferring many powers to EU institutions. This includes many laws being made in Brussels instead of the British Parliament. This contradicts each country being a nation, as secular states making their own laws and policies is a sign of independence. Thus, as EU integration increased, the UK lost more powers, causing many divisions within the political class. The EU is also a supranational organization, which challenges British identity and British history as a separate English state. These issues caused major splits and were a significant problem for successive governments in using the EU for their own interests. The establishment of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) around the anti-Europe issue led to that party gaining support from much of the British people, causing further divisions within the Conservative Party and leading to more public opinion opposing the EU. UKIP won seats in the European Parliament and used its position there to challenge and undermine it. The party's popularity was confirmed in the 2015 general election when it finished third, but the British "first-past-the-post" electoral system ultimately kept it out of power.
6- Since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, Britain has clashed with the EU on many issues. British Prime Minister David Cameron clashed with Europe over plans to impose a tax on banks and restrict London's financial sector. In March 2015, the UK won a lawsuit against the European Central Bank (ECB) in the European Court of Justice, where the ECB had tried to move the clearing function for Eurozone transactions inside the Union. Such a move could have excluded London, while making Paris and Frankfurt more attractive as financial centers, which would weaken Britain's economic position. David Cameron used the threat of leaving the EU as a means to negotiate better terms with EU officials, and if this threat did not work, he threatened them with a referendum on leaving the Union.
7- For Britain, a unified European Union constitutes a threat to its power, so keeping it divided has been its constant goal. Britain wants, on the one hand, to keep the EU divided, and on the other hand, wants to use it for its own interest in international issues. Britain has worked at every opportunity to undermine the EU since the moment it joined, immediately calling for negotiations, which in turn led to the referendum: it called for a single market in the EU and then stood against it; it criticized the creation of a European superstate because it undermines its sovereignty; Britain called for unity in Europe and then opted out of joining the Eurozone. Thus, Britain has worked at every opportunity to dismantle the EU and keep it weak, but it realized from the early days of the EU that it must be in the Union to influence it. Politically, it needs to stay within the EU; thus, it joined the Union to achieve this goal after seeing that it could not achieve it from the outside. De Gaulle recognized Britain's aforementioned goal and kept Britain out of the Union, but it was eventually allowed to join!
8- Britain also benefits economically from the EU, and this benefits its companies and its wealthy elite. Britain's economy is dominated by services, and the main service in Britain is financial services. Britain exports few goods but relies on financial services for income, capital, and foreign exchange. The EU Single Market also means Britain can export without trade restrictions to all of Europe, benefiting large companies and the wealthy elite. Therefore, leaving the EU would lose it this position and lead to political problems in the country. Likewise, leaving the EU means Britain would stop taking laws or decisions issued by the EU, and because the EU is Britain's main trading partner, leaving the Union while it is a European country weakens its position in Europe. This is in addition to the fact that, in this case, it would need to challenge the EU from the outside, which weakens its influence in the Union. Its influence from within is stronger and more effective.
9- Based on the above, Britain's relationship with the Union and what is expected from the referendum can be summarized as follows:
a- Britain has always wanted to weaken European unity and has worked from within the EU to achieve this.
b- At the same time, Britain views the EU through the lens of its own interests and works to modify it in its favor, which often provokes the anger of France and Germany.
c- There are some harms to Britain as a result of its presence in the EU, where it loses sovereignty and authority; however, this is seen as a price it must pay to remain influential within it. This has caused divisions among politicians, the elites, and the British people, prompting the British government to demand the return of some powers by threatening to hold a public referendum on leaving the EU.
d- For these reasons, it is not expected that Britain will leave the EU; rather, it is likely they will vote in favor of the status quo...
This is what is most likely on this matter. Nevertheless, Britain masters the art of blackmail; therefore, it is not ruled out that it might extend the referendum date if its interest requires it, or make the results inconclusive, so that there is room for give-and-take to further blackmail the EU into providing concessions. It is expected that Britain will continue its deception of the EU until someone in the Union recognizes its reality and expels it without being blackmailed by its knocking on the doors of referendum dates!
25th of Rajab 1437 AH 02/05/2016 CE