Question:
Drone experts in the United States noted that "the two drones that crashed over the Kremlin last Wednesday evaded a large number of defense systems inside and around Moscow, which indicates the possibility of them being launched from within Russia" (Al Jazeera, Reuters, 2023/5/6). The drone attack on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of Moscow took place on the night of 2023/5/3. The secretary of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament stated that "the attack on the Kremlin was planned by Moscow" (Al Jazeera, 2023/5/3). The question is: Was this attack an external plot by "Ukraine" as Russia accuses? Or was it an internal plot by "Moscow" as American experts and Ukraine suggested? In other words: Who stands behind this attack after these conflicting statements?
Answer:
Yes, the Russian presidency announced the thwarting of a drone attack on the Kremlin, describing it as "terrorist." Ukraine immediately denied any involvement, accusing Moscow of deliberately highlighting it in the media to justify any potential escalation of the conflict. The Kremlin stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not harmed. To understand the objectives of this attack, the following must be noted:
First: After more than a year of the war in Ukraine, which Russia began in February 2022, a certain stagnation has hit the battlefronts. Except for the continuous fighting in the city of Bakhmut for eight months and some Russian missile strikes deep within Ukraine, the rest of the fronts are witnessing a stalemate. This stagnation has two causes: the first is natural due to winter, and the second is due to a shortage of ammunition on both sides. With the continuous talk of an anticipated Ukrainian offensive, the attack on the Kremlin has effectively ended the stagnation of the fronts, making escalation likely.
Second: The West, led by America and through continuous and gradual support for Ukraine, has managed to drain Russia. The head of the Russian Wagner Group, which is fighting primarily in the city of Bakhmut, is constantly shouting about the lack of ammunition; he even accuses parties within the Russian military establishment of doing so deliberately, especially since the rest of the fronts were almost halted during the winter. Similarly, Russian strikes deep within Ukraine mostly take the form of "waves," meaning that Russia may not possess enough of these missiles and aircraft to carry out continuous attacks. It is as if they collect the quantity they manufacture during a month and then launch it inside Ukraine. This is another expression of the state of attrition in Russia, in addition to the shortage of sensitive parts in the Russian military industry due to Western sanctions. Although news reports also speak of the depletion of ammunition in the West, while this may be true, the Western military industry is more capable than Russia's industry in filling this gap.
Third: Consequently, the Russian army, despite recruitment campaigns, appears to lack offensive ground capabilities in particular. It is building trenches along the fronts as evidence of its fear of the anticipated Ukrainian attack with advanced Western weapons. In fact, the leader of the Wagner Group described the upcoming Ukrainian attack as a "catastrophe for Russia." When this is coupled with what resembles the absence of the Russian Air Force—which has completely failed to impose air superiority over Ukraine and settles for directing some strikes from a distance—this Russian weakness becomes apparent to the West and to America, which manages the war in Ukraine from behind the scenes. For all these reasons, war planning has begun to take on dimensions against Russia that were not imaginable when the war broke out, especially since America and the West are still successful in warding off the specter of nuclear war. All Russian hints that rise to the level of threatening the use of nuclear weapons have been met with widespread criticism, and even with intimidating Russia against its recklessness and the American reaction.
Fourth: Under all these circumstances, this summer will likely be hot and unrestrained by many restrictions. One of those restrictions was that the war took place inside Ukraine only. Several attacks have occurred inside Russia without Ukraine claiming responsibility for them; rather, the "Russian Resistance" rejecting Putin's rule was "invented" as if it were responsible for the attacks inside Russia. This attack on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of the capital, Moscow, severely wounds Russia's pride. Russia classified it as an attempt to assassinate Russian President Putin. Regardless of where the two drones were launched from, their arrival over the domes of the Kremlin buildings and their explosion directly over the Kremlin demonstrates Russia's weakness.
Fifth: Because of the shock in Moscow and across Russia from the audacity of the attack—which Russia accused Ukraine of executing—strong statements were issued indicating the severity of the shock among Russian officials:
The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated: "The only option left after the Kyiv regime's attack on the Kremlin is the physical elimination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his clique." Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on Wednesday: "After today's terrorist attack (on the Kremlin), there are no options left but the physical elimination of Zelensky and his gang" (Sputnik Russia, 2023/5/3).
The Chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, demanded the use of "weapons capable of deterring and destroying the terrorist regime in Kyiv" in response to the drone attack on the Kremlin. Volodin added in a statement on the Telegram app that Russia should not negotiate with the Ukrainian president after the "alleged" attack for which Kyiv denied responsibility, noting that negotiations with the Zelensky regime are "not possible, as it threatens the security of Russia, Europe, and the entire world" (Al Jazeera Net, 2023/5/3).
Thus, the magnitude of the shock pervading Russia from the drone attack on the Kremlin becomes clear.
Sixth: As for the idea that Russia itself staged the attack to escalate the war in Ukraine, this is unlikely. On one hand, it is a wound to its pride, a slap to its greatness, and a warning that no one fears it or its president anymore. On the other hand, Russia is unable to effectively escalate the war in Ukraine except with nuclear weapons, and it lacks the will to use them inside Ukraine for fear of the American reaction. What also refutes the possibility that Russia struck itself is that Russia has directly accused America of involvement in the attack. This is also unprecedented and indicates the severity of the shock in Moscow at the audacity of the attack. Relevant statements show this:
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the United States of America is behind Ukraine's attack on the Kremlin with the help of drones and that it chose Kyiv's targets. Peskov said in a press briefing on Thursday (2023/5/4): "Such attempts to disown this in both Kyiv and Washington are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions on such actions and such terrorist attacks are not made in Kyiv, but in Washington. Kyiv does what it is told, and the orders have come for that." America denied this through the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, John Kirby, on MSNBC, where he said: "We don't know yet what happened, and we are not making any assessments. I just saw Dmitry Peskov's comments this morning and the allegations of our involvement in some way in this matter. I can assure you that there was no involvement by the United States of America, and whatever it was, the United States was not involved" (RT, 2023/5/4).
For all these reasons, it can be said that America has started taking the war in Ukraine further and making it more unrestrained by many restrictions against Russia, due to the weakness and exhaustion it observes in Russia. In fact, the attack on the Kremlin represents a personal threat to the Russian president. It appears from the statements of Kremlin spokesperson Peskov that Russia has understood the message. Therefore, it wanted to tell America that it knows America is behind the attack, but "Russia" refrains from threatening America directly due to its intense fear of it, settling for threatening Ukraine and threatening to liquidate its president, Zelensky.
Another indication that the attack is a challenge to Russia planned by America is the removal of the Ukrainian president from Ukraine. He suddenly appeared on the morning of the attack on a visit to Helsinki, Finland, then his plane appeared landing in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and then he appeared in the German Chancellor's schedule for a reception. All of this was to shield Ukrainian President Zelensky from Russia's reaction—meaning to prevent them from liquidating him as Medvedev demanded.
As for America itself, it appeared as if it did not want to comment on this event, and even showed skepticism about the Russian narrative. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had seen reports from Moscow about an alleged drone attack by Ukraine on the Kremlin, but he "cannot validate them in any way." He said, "We simply don't know." Blinken added: "We'll see what the facts are. And it's really hard to comment or speculate on this without knowing what the facts are" (CNN Arabic, 2023/5/3).
What points to America's role in the attempt to kill Russian President Putin is that the American documents leaked over the past months, which were exposed in April 2023, spoke about the death of Russian President Putin as one of the war scenarios. "It seems that the process of leaking classified documents from the US Department of Defense 'Pentagon' carries many surprises and secrets, including what the New York Times revealed regarding a secret intelligence document it obtained containing details of plans laid out to deal with emergencies after a year of war in Ukraine. The document includes an analysis conducted by the US Defense Intelligence Agency identifying four hypothetical scenarios and how they could affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine if they occurred. The hypothetical scenarios include: 'the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin... and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky... and a change in the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces... and Ukrainian strikes on the Kremlin'" (Asharq Newspaper, 2023/4/12).
Seventh: In conclusion, the drone attack on the Kremlin Palace in Moscow is a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine. It indicates that America, as well as Ukraine, possess enough agents inside Russia to launch powerful attacks that could change the course of the war. Explosions have begun and taken on an increasing character inside Russia, targeting railways, oil and electricity facilities, and others. This means that the process of transferring the war from Ukraine to inside Russia is actually underway, and it is extremely bold, especially since the Russian army is exhausted to a large extent in Ukraine and finds it difficult to carry out effective attacks to change the course of the war. Similarly, the West, led by America, continues to support Ukraine with more advanced weapons to change the course of the war in favor of Ukraine, noting that the current course of the war is not in Russia's favor after Ukraine regained the city of Kherson and areas in Kharkiv, as well as Russia's heavy losses in its continuous eight-month offensive on the city of Bakhmut without capturing it.
These are the dimensions of this attack on the Kremlin in Russia and its background. All of this indicates the shaking of Russia's military and security capability, to the extent that it could not protect its political center in the heart of Moscow! It is true that the fighting is not between Russia and Ukraine alone, but rather America and the West are supporting Ukraine materially and morally. Nevertheless, for Russia's attack on Ukraine to continue for more than a year while Russia's stability remains severely shaken in the regions it occupied in Ukraine, with major material and human losses—all of this indicates Russia's clear distancing from the title of a "Great Power." It seems that Russia realizes this, and for this reason, it has exerted every effort to restore credibility to this title by occupying all of Bakhmut before Russia's celebration on 2023/5/9, but it has failed to do so until today despite intensifying its attacks and mobilizing the Wagner Group.
As for America and the West, they are fighting to the last Ukrainian soldier! They do not want to intervene in the fighting; rather, these countries achieve their interests with the blood of others.
In conclusion, I repeat what I previously mentioned in the Answer to a Question on 2023/3/1: "...these disbelieving colonialist countries called 'Great Powers' in today's world are struggling among themselves, not for the good of the world but for evil and harm. Russia is attacking Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian who moves, and America and the West are fighting the aggression with every Ukrainian and not with their soldiers! Both parties are struggling in Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian... This is how these countries that seek corruption on earth are; they do not give weight to the amount of blood shed as long as it achieves their interests, or even a part of their interests... It is as if history is repeating itself when the Persian and Roman states were struggling, this one prevailing and that one being defeated, and so on... Each of them acts as a machine sucking the blood of people to achieve its own interests... This continued until Allah honored the people of truth and justice, the Islamic Ummah, with victory and clear conquest, so Islam and the Muslims became mighty, and disbelief and the disbelievers were humiliated. This will happen again, by the permission of Allah."
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (QS Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
This will be through the establishment of the Righteous Khilafah.
وَيَقُولُونَ مَتَى هُوَ قُلْ عَسَى أَنْ يَكُونَ قَرِيباً
"And they say, 'When will that be?' Say, 'Perhaps it will be soon.'" (QS Al-Isra [17]: 51)
19th of Shawwal 1444 AH 2023/5/9 CE