Question:
Drone experts in the United States observed that (the two drones that crashed over the Kremlin last Wednesday evaded a large number of defense systems inside and around Moscow, indicating the possibility of their launch from within Russia. Al Jazeera, Reuters 06/05/2023). The drone attack on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of Moscow occurred on the night of 03/05/2023. The secretary of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament stated that (the attack on the Kremlin was planned by Moscow... Al Jazeera 03/05/2023). The question is: Was this attack an external plot by "Ukraine" as Russia accuses? Or was it an internal plot by "Moscow" as American experts and Ukraine suggested? In other words: who stands behind this attack following these conflicting statements?
Answer:
Yes, the Russian presidency announced the thwarting of an attack by two drones on the Kremlin, describing it as "terrorist." Ukraine immediately denied any involvement in the attack, accusing Moscow of deliberately highlighting it in the media to justify any potential escalation of the conflict. The Kremlin stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not harmed... To understand the objectives of this attack, the following must be noted:
First: After more than a year of the war in Ukraine initiated by Russia in February 2022, a certain stagnation has affected the battlefronts. Except for the continuous fighting in the city of Bakhmut for eight months and some Russian missile strikes deep into Ukraine, the rest of the fronts are witnessing a lull. This stagnation has two causes: the first is natural due to winter, and the second is due to a shortage of ammunition on both sides. With continuous talk of an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive, the attack on the Kremlin would have ended the stagnation of the fronts, and an escalation is likely.
Second: The West, led by America and through continuous and gradual support for Ukraine, has managed to exhaust Russia. The head of the Russian Wagner Group, which is fighting primarily in the city of Bakhmut, constantly cries out regarding the lack of ammunition, even accusing parties within the Russian military establishment of doing so deliberately, especially since the rest of the fronts were almost at a standstill during the winter. Likewise, Russian strikes deep into Ukraine generally take the form of waves, meaning Russia may not possess enough of these missiles and drones to carry out continuous attacks; it is as if it collects the quantity it manufactures during a month and then launches it into Ukraine. This is another expression of the state of exhaustion in Russia, not to mention the shortage of sensitive parts in the Russian military industry due to Western sanctions. Although news also speaks of the exhaustion of ammunition in the West as well, while this may be true, the Western military industry is more capable than Russia's industry to bridge this gap.
Third: Consequently, the Russian army, despite recruitment campaigns, appears to have lost its offensive ground capabilities in particular. It is building trenches along the fronts as evidence of its fear of the expected Ukrainian attack with advanced Western weapons. In fact, the leader of the "Wagner" group described the anticipated Ukrainian attack as a "disaster for Russia." If this is coupled with the apparent absence of the Russian Air Force—a force that has completely failed to impose air superiority in the skies of Ukraine and settles for delivering some strikes from afar—this Russian weakness is clear to the West and to America, which manages the war in Ukraine from behind the scenes. For all these reasons, the planning for the war has begun to take on dimensions against Russia that were not conceivable at the outbreak of the war, especially since America and the West are still successful in keeping the specter of nuclear war at bay. This is because all Russian hints that rise to the level of threats to use nuclear weapons have been met with widespread criticism, and even by intimidating Russia regarding its recklessness and the American reaction.
Fourth: Under all these circumstances, this summer will likely be hot and unchecked by many restrictions. Among those restrictions was that the war takes place inside Ukraine only; yet several attacks have occurred inside Russia without Ukraine claiming responsibility for them. Instead, the "Russian Resistance" opposing Putin’s rule was invented as if it were responsible for the attacks inside Russia. This attack on the Kremlin Palace in the heart of the capital, Moscow, severely wounds Russia's pride. Russia classified it as an attempt to assassinate Russian President Putin. Regardless of where the two drones were launched from, their arrival over the domes of the Kremlin buildings and their explosion directly above the Kremlin demonstrates Russia's weakness.
Fifth: Due to the shock in Moscow and throughout Russia from the audacity of the attack, which Russia accused Ukraine of executing, strong statements were issued indicating the severity of the shock among Russian officials:
The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated: (that the only option after the Kyiv regime's attack on the Kremlin is the elimination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his entourage. Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on Wednesday: "After today's terrorist attack 'on the Kremlin', there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his gang... Sputnik Russian, 03/05/2023).
The Chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, demanded (the use of "weapons capable of deterring and destroying the terrorist regime in Kyiv" in response to a drone attack on the Kremlin. Volodin added—in a statement on the Telegram app—that Russia should not negotiate with the Ukrainian President after the "alleged" attack for which Kyiv denied responsibility, noting that negotiations with the Zelensky regime are "not possible, as he threatens the security of Russia, Europe, and the entire world." Al Jazeera Net, 03/05/2023).
Thus, the magnitude of the shock pervading Russia from the drone attack on the Kremlin becomes clear.
Sixth: As for Russia being the one that orchestrated the attack in order to escalate the war in Ukraine, this is unlikely because it is a wound to its pride, a slap to its greatness, and a warning that no one fears it or its president anymore. Secondly, Russia is unable to effectively escalate the war in Ukraine except with nuclear weapons, and it lacks the will to use them inside Ukraine for fear of the American reaction. What also negates the possibility that Russia struck itself is that Russia has directed accusations directly at America for involvement in the attack. This is also unprecedented and indicates the severity of the shock in Moscow from the audacity of the attack, and relevant statements show this:
The official spokesperson for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, stated (that the United States of America stands behind Ukraine's attack on the Kremlin with the help of drones and was the one who selected Kyiv's targets. This came in Peskov's press briefing today, Thursday "04/05/2023", where he continued: "Such attempts to disown this in both Kyiv and Washington are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions on such actions and such terrorist attacks are not made in Kyiv, but in Washington. Kyiv does what it is told, and the orders have come for that." America denied this through the mouth of the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council at the White House, John Kirby, live on MSNBC, where he said: "We don't know yet what happened, and we are not making any assessments. I have just seen Dmitry Peskov's comments this morning, and the allegations about our involvement in some way in this matter. I can assure you that there was no participation by the United States of America, and whatever the case, the United States was not involved." RT, 04/05/2023).
For all these reasons, it can be said that America has begun taking the war in Ukraine and moving it to a further extent, unchecked by many restrictions against Russia, because of the weakness and exhaustion it observes in Russia. In fact, the attack on the Kremlin represents a personal threat to the Russian President. It appears from the statements of Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, that Russia has understood the message; therefore, it wanted to tell America that it knows America stands behind the attack, but "Russia" refrains from threatening America directly due to its intense fear of it, settling for threatening Ukraine and threatening to liquidate its president, Zelensky.
What also indicates that the attack is a challenge to Russia planned by America is the removal of the Ukrainian President from Ukraine. He suddenly appeared on the morning of the attack on a visit to Helsinki, Finland, then his plane was seen landing in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and then it appeared in the German Chancellor's schedule that it included receiving the Ukrainian President Zelensky. All of this is to spare the President of Ukraine, Zelensky, from the Russian reaction—that is, to prevent his liquidation as demanded by Medvedev.
As for America itself, it appeared as if it did not want to comment on this event, and even showed doubt in the Russian narrative. (US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had seen reports from Moscow of an alleged drone attack by Ukraine on the Kremlin, but he "cannot verify them in any way." He said: "We simply don't know." Blinken added: "We will see what the facts are. It is really hard to comment or speculate on this without knowing the facts." CNN Arabic, 03/05/2023).
What indicates America's role in the attempt to kill Russian President Putin is that the American documents leaked during the past months, which were exposed in April 2023, spoke of the killing of Russian President Putin as one of the war scenarios. (It seems that the process of leaking secret documents from the US Department of Defense, the Pentagon, carries many surprises and secrets, including what The New York Times revealed regarding a secret intelligence document it obtained containing details of plans drawn up to deal with emergencies after a year of war in Ukraine. The document includes an analysis conducted by the US Defense Intelligence Agency identifying 4 hypothetical scenarios and how they could affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine if they occurred. The hypothetical scenarios include: "The killing of Russian President Vladimir Putin... and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky... and changing the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces... and Ukrainian strikes on the Kremlin." Ash-Sharq Newspaper, 12/04/2023).
Seventh: In conclusion, the drone attack on the Kremlin Palace in Moscow is a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.
It indicates that America, as well as Ukraine, possess enough agents inside Russia to launch powerful attacks that may change the course of the war. Bombings have begun taking an increasing trend inside Russia, targeting railways, oil and electricity facilities, and others. In other words, the process of transferring the war from Ukraine to inside Russia is actually underway, and is extremely daring, especially since the Russian army is exhausted to a great extent in Ukraine and finds it difficult to carry out effective attacks to change the course of the war. Likewise, the West, led by America, continues to support Ukraine with more advanced weapons to change the course of the war in Ukraine's favor. Note that the current course of the war is not in Russia's favor after Ukraine regained the city of Kherson and areas in Kharkiv, as well as the severity of Russia's losses in its eight-month-long attack on the city of Bakhmut without capturing it.
These are the dimensions of this attack on the Kremlin in Russia, and those were its backgrounds. All of this indicates the shaking of Russia's military and security capability, to the point that it could not protect its political center in the heart of Moscow! It is true that the fighting is not only between Russia and Ukraine, but that America and the West support Ukraine materially and morally. Nevertheless, for Russia's attack on Ukraine to continue for more than a year and Russia's stability still be severely shaken in the regions it occupied in Ukraine along with the major material and human losses—all of this indicates Russia's departure from the title of a "Major Power," a departure that is visible to the eye. It seems that Russia realizes this, and for this reason, it has exerted every effort to restore respect to this title by occupying all of Bakhmut before Russia's celebration on 09/05/2023, but it has failed to do so until today despite intensifying its attacks and mobilizing the Wagner group.
As for America and the West, they are fighting until the last Ukrainian soldier! They do not want to intervene in the fighting; rather, those countries achieve their interests with the blood of others.
In conclusion, I reiterate what I previously mentioned in the Answer to a Question dated 01/03/2023: [...these colonialist disbelieving states called "great" in today's world are struggling among themselves not for the good of the world, but for evil and harm. Russia aggresses against Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian that moves, and America and the West fight the aggression with every Ukrainian and not with their own soldiers! Both sides are struggling in Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian... Such are these countries that seek corruption on earth, placing no weight on the intensity of the blood shed as long as it achieves their interests, or even some of their interests... It is as if history is repeating itself when the Persian and Roman states were in conflict, this one prevailing and that one being defeated, and so on... and each of them behaves like a machine sucking people's blood to achieve its own interests... and that continued until Allah honored the people of truth and justice, the Islamic Ummah, with victory and clear conquest, so Islam and the Muslims were strengthened, and disbelief and the disbelievers were humiliated. And this will surely happen again by the permission of Allah.] And that is through the establishment of the Rightly Guided Khilafah.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
وَيَقُولُونَ مَتَى هُوَ قُلْ عَسَى أَنْ يَكُونَ قَرِيباً
"And they say, 'When will that be?' Say, 'Perhaps it will be soon.'" (Al-Isra [17]: 51)
19th of Shawwal 1444 AH
09/05/2023 CE