Answer to a Question
The US-Russian Summit in Helsinki
Question:
The American and Russian presidents held a summit in Helsinki, the capital of Finland, on Monday, July 16, 2018. Does this mean an end to the tension between the two countries? Are there implications for holding this summit after the NATO summit on July 12, 2018, and the tension that surfaced between America and its European allies? Does it have an impact on the Russian-Chinese relationship? Furthermore, what is the impact of this summit on the settlement in Syria?
Answer:
To answer these questions about the US-Russian summit in Helsinki, we say: After a relatively long period of tension in US-Russian relations that began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea—to which America and Europe responded by imposing economic sanctions on Russia—the tension intensified toward the end of the Obama administration, which accused Russia of interfering in the US elections in favor of candidate Trump. Since then, high-level meetings between the two sides had practically ceased. Although the two presidents met twice before this summit—on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, in July 2017, and on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Vietnam in November 2017—those meetings did not rise to the level of a summit; they were fleeting encounters that did not delve sufficiently into the hot files between them. During the year and a half of the Trump administration, Russia sought diligently to hold a summit between the two presidents, but America kept postponing it, using the delay as a means of pressure. Russia continued to wait for an initiative from Trump to improve relations, though it recognized the difficulties due to the massive wave of opposition in America to Trump's tendencies, which manifested in open investigations against Russia and resignations of members of Trump's team over alleged ties with Russia.
Thus, holding a full-scale summit became a major Russian dream that it failed to achieve on its own. It only became possible after America decided it should happen. (Harriet Marquis, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, announced last Thursday "June 21, 2018," that National Security Advisor Bolton would visit Moscow at the end of this month to discuss organizing a Russian-American summit.) Sputnik News Agency, June 24, 2018. Therefore, the most important thing to consider regarding this summit held on July 16, 2018, is why America (not Russia) decided to hold the summit, and what it wants to achieve through it? To clarify this matter, we say:
1- All indicators point to the continuation of American pressure on Russia. Two days before the summit, America accused Russian intelligence officers of involvement in hacking the US elections (The US Department of Justice accused 12 Russian intelligence officers of hacking the accounts of Democratic Party officials during the 2016 presidential election. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said the defendants used hacking messages known as "spear phishing" along with malicious software... The White House said the scheduled meeting between Trump and Putin on Monday would go ahead.) Egyptian newspaper Al-Ghad, July 14, 2018. Likewise, immediately following the conclusion of the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki, Al-Jazeera reported on July 16, 2018, the US announcement of the arrest of a Russian woman in Washington on charges of spying for Russia. Through these actions carried out by American government agencies, the easing of pressure on Russia is not expected to be achieved as Russia desires, despite the summit. This means that there are other factors that pushed America to agree to Russia's long-standing request for a summit, and these factors are clarified by the circumstances surrounding it:
2- The US-Russian summit took place at a time when America is fighting a trade war against two major rivals: the European Union and China. It appears that America decided to hold the summit to play the "Russian card" against both rivals simultaneously!
Regarding the European Union: America chose the timing of the summit with Russia to be immediately after the NATO summit held in Brussels amid major disputes between EU countries and America (The NATO summit began in Brussels today amid expectations that it would be fraught with tension, especially between Washington and its European allies, against the backdrop of disputes over trade, defense spending, and the Iran nuclear deal. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the existence of "disagreements and different views among the allies.") Russia Today, July 11, 2018. President Trump publicly described the EU as a "foe" for the first time in the history of transatlantic relations. The summit with Russia was one of the most important American tools of pressure against the Europeans, as follows:
A- President Trump threatened the Europeans by hinting at a lenient stance toward Russia regarding Ukraine. European Council President Donald Tusk said ("US President Donald Trump informed him that the motives of Russia's policy toward Ukraine interest him, and Trump admitted that his enthusiasm toward Ukraine is much less. Tusk added, in a talk with the Polish TVN24 channel: 'During several conversations with me, Donald Trump did not try to hide that he feels less enthusiasm toward Ukraine and has more understanding toward what Russia did in Ukraine.'") Russia Today, July 15, 2018. To make matters worse, the American president had announced during the G7 summit last June that "Crimea belongs to Russia because the majority of its inhabitants are Russian speakers." Russia Today, July 15, 2018. This is an extremely sensitive matter in Europe, as Europeans view Russia's actions in Ukraine as tampering with overall European security that cannot be tolerated. The EU considers Trump's statement extremely dangerous, as it means Russia is dismantling European borders and maps from the east!
B- Trump's threat to Europe to return Russia to the G7 (US President Donald Trump called on Friday, June 8, 2018, for his counterparts in the G7 to consider returning Russia to the group. Trump said before heading to Canada: "They threw Russia out; they should let Russia back in because we should have Russia at the negotiating table." Russia had been excluded from the G8 after the annexation of Crimea.) Al-Arabiya Net, June 8, 2018.
C- Al-Jazeera reported on July 15, 2018, after the NATO summit, "European leaders' apprehension about the rapprochement between Russia and America." Indicating this great European concern, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned Trump against making unilateral deals at the expense of European allies. He told the newspaper Bild: "Unilateral deals at the expense of allies will also harm the United States. Whoever hits their allies risks losing the game." Russia Today, July 15, 2018. Furthermore, US-Russian rapprochement could harm the Union by making the European sanctions imposed on Russia (renewed every six months over Crimea and Ukraine) ineffective, as Russia would then disregard the European countries.
D- President Trump, who lacks political wisdom, does not stop publicly attacking the European Union, especially Germany regarding the purchase of Russian gas. Sometimes he describes it as a "foe," meaning an enemy, and sometimes he incites against it, as in his advice to the British Prime Minister during their summit in London (In an interview with the BBC, May said in response to a question about Trump's advice: "He told me I should sue the EU, not go into negotiations.") BBC, July 15, 2018. Britain, despite its declared intention to leave the EU, shares the same view of Russia as other European countries. It is not unlikely that British provocation of Russia was intended to disrupt the summit (The Mil Radar site, specialized in monitoring air traffic, reported that a British Air Force reconnaissance plane conducted flights near the coast of the Russian Crimean Peninsula.) Russia Today, July 15, 2018.
Thus, by America's pressure on Europe, its threat to return Russia to the G7, the hint of American recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, American indifference toward supporting Ukraine against Russian followers in the east (Donetsk and Luhansk), and improving relations with Russia through the summit—all these are significant, albeit indirect, threats to Europe to comply with American demands and increase defense spending in NATO. In other words, America pressured the EU countries through its rapprochement with Russia, which was one of the primary American goals for holding the summit.
3- As for the Chinese side, the matter proceeds as follows:
A- The US-Russian summit also took place amidst a trade war waged by America against Beijing. Once America exhausted Chinese services in softening North Korea's position and putting it on the path of peaceful solutions—represented by the US-North Korea summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018, for which China received thanks from the US president—America began implementing the policies Trump had announced against China even before becoming president. America imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, and China responded with tariffs on the same value of American imports. America then announced a new plan for tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, something China cannot respond to in the same manner because its total imports from America are $130 billion, while its exports to America are $500 billion. This forces China to think of other ways to respond to the trade war.
B- One of those Chinese methods was rapprochement with Russia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its last meeting in China on June 10, 2018, coinciding with the G7 meeting in Canada on June 9, 2018. These two meetings showed a global split: the West meeting in Canada and the East in China. This does not please America after it consolidated its global hegemony following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. America undoubtedly saw that the two active countries in the SCO are China, with whom Washington is fighting a trade war, and Russia, on whom America imposes harsh and increasing sanctions. On the other hand, America saw that Russia and China could increase their alignment in light of US policy against them, viewing them as rebellious rivals in international trade and politics. America witnessed that its policy was pushing the two countries toward more rapprochement and cooperation, including in the military aspect. Both Russia and China feel they are facing a single opponent, the United States, and that their cooperation enhances their strength. The Chinese Defense Minister's message was highly expressive of this feeling (Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu received his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe... Wei Fenghe said during the meeting: "The Chinese delegation arrived so that the Americans would know about the strong links between the Chinese and Russian armed forces, especially in the current situation... We have come to support you.") Russia Today, April 3, 2018.
C- Therefore, America saw that opening a door of hope for Russia with an American rapprochement would lead to a distancing between Russia and China, and ultimately dismantle their fragile alliance before its pillars—especially military—are completed. America knows Russia's military potential, and placing this potential, or part of it, alongside China would strengthen the latter and lead it to reject American policy. Washington saw this as easy to achieve; Russia is turning to China as a new strategy due to poor relations with the West. If America shows some rapprochement to ease the pressure, Russia will deviate from its path toward China.
For all these reasons, Washington saw fit to open a door of hope for Russia to restore its relations with America to their former state through the summit, specifically to halt the Russian orientation toward China. While it may be too early to judge the achievement of these American goals, as it depends on subsequent steps, America can easily dismantle the fragile and ambiguous "alliance" between Russia and China. America is taking multiple steps: sometimes on the Russian side, as in this summit, and sometimes on the Chinese side, as China's commercial interests with America are a greater priority in Beijing than any relations with Russia.
4- To increase the impact of Trump's heated messages to the EU and China, he made the summit an "open meeting" to be utilized as needed—it is a beginning for subsequent steps! Therefore, he announced after his private meeting with Putin in Helsinki that this summit was a "good start," according to Russia Today on July 16, 2018. In the press conference, he announced the agreement of the two countries to open negotiations regarding extending the 2010 nuclear disarmament treaty (New START), which expires in 2021. Trump stated that relations with Russia were at their worst four hours ago, but now they have changed... This is all general talk that aligns perfectly with what John Bolton announced (White House National Security Advisor John Bolton told ABC's "This Week": "We asked and the Russians agreed that the 'meeting' would be open-ended. We are not looking for concrete results." The US Ambassador to Russia, Jon Huntsman, told NBC: "It’s not a summit... it’s a meeting... this is an attempt to see if we can defuse and reduce the emotions and frankly some of the risks in the relationship right now.") Reuters, July 16, 2018.
5- This confirms that America has not yet planned to genuinely improve its relations with Russia; it continues the policy of pressure. However, for reasons related to the international circumstance and the trade war with the EU and China, it saw fit to scare Europe with its rapprochement with Russia and to open a door of hope for Russia to break its international isolation. This is to distance Russia from China and perhaps to get Russia to respond to American demands in other international issues, as it did in supporting American policy in Syria by keeping the subservient ameel regime in power! Consequently, the summit was not to resolve specific international issues but was a heated message directed toward China and the EU. Beyond that, the talk was general. Trump said the talks would cover "everything from trade to military matters, missiles, and China." Putin said it was time to talk about relations and complex multilateral international issues. Lavrov indicated the summit would address "all complex topics where our positions differ... without expecting to reach agreements." This generality makes it clear that resolving specific issues was not the intent. For example, they agreed on the security of the Jewish entity, which is nothing new, as both have declared this for a long time. Regarding nuclear disarmament, anyone with insight knows that America and Russia do not meet to voluntarily disarm their nuclear weapons, regardless of what they say.
6- As for the impact of the summit on the Syrian arena, it can be said that there is nothing new regarding American and Russian policies in Syria. Both countries are in complete agreement on liquidating the Syrian revolution. Since the meeting between Obama and Putin on September 29, 2015, Russia has been implementing American policy in Syria in coordination. While Russia carries out direct military actions, such as the bombing of Daraa, America supports it by informing the opposition that "America will not provide any support against the attack on Daraa." There is no news regarding Russian efforts to militarily liquidate the revolution and the American facilitation of that.
As for the political settlement in Syria, America has delayed it until the regime in Damascus and Russia complete the liquidation of the armed opposition. Then, America will lead the comprehensive political process in Syria according to its interests, with a scripted Russian role, or without it. That political process was not addressed in the summit, indicating that America is postponing it or does not want a role for Russia, or both. It is not unlikely that Russia realizes American political goals in Syria do not allow for its participation, but Russia hopes America will not tighten the noose on it in Ukraine, specifically Crimea. Trump tickled Russia's feelings with his statements about Crimea, which is extremely dangerous for Europe. Perhaps Russia will fall victim to its own actions due to Trump's statements; indeed, it already has, as its face has blackened with the Muslims because of its crimes against them for the benefit of America! These actions will remain in the memory of Muslims toward America, Russia, and their followers. Days change, and crimes will not preserve their perpetrators.
سَيُصِيبُ الَّذِينَ أَجْرَمُوا صَغَارٌ عِنْدَ اللَّهِ وَعَذَابٌ شَدِيدٌ بِمَا كَانُوا يَمْكُرُونَ
"There will afflict those who committed crimes debasement before Allah and severe punishment for what they used to conspire." (QS Al-An'am [6]: 124)
8th of Dhu al-Qi'dah 1439 AH July 21, 2018 CE