Question:
Analysis is escalating these days in the media, especially European and American, regarding the next president of Egypt after Hosni Mubarak, who has been reported as not intending to run in the upcoming presidential elections in 2011. The names of Gamal Mubarak, Ayman Nour, Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, and others are being circulated; however, the most prominent discussions concern the chances of Gamal Mubarak, as well as Ayman Nour...
We know that Gamal Mubarak, like his father, owes his loyalty to America. Is Ayman Nour from the same flock, especially since his recent release occurred shortly before Obama's visit? Or is Ayman Nour one of Europe's men? If this is true, does it mean that Europe, especially Britain, aspires to have a foothold in Egypt after all these long years of strong American influence in the country?
Answer:
Political monitoring of events in Egypt suggests that the person with the best chance of succeeding Hosni Mubarak is Gamal Mubarak. This is indicated by several factors:
First: America is interested in having Gamal succeed his father, and indicators of this interest include:
It is understood from the Americans' positions that they want him and that he is their next candidate. However, the American state does not show this openly, so it appears to the people that Gamal Mubarak did not come by its will, but rather through the "democratic game." This is also to avoid "burning" him and strengthening his opponents. Thus, it invites Gamal Mubarak to visit just as it invites others, making his candidacy appear natural. If America did not want him, it would have launched a fierce campaign against him; it holds many cards to expose him, as it is ostensibly against "inheritance of power" as being undemocratic, and it could release files on corruption he is involved in and the enormous wealth he acquired due to his father being the head of authority... and other such files.
On March 5, 2009, Gamal Mubarak visited America and met with several leaders in the Senate and House of Representatives, including Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Representative Howard Berman, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
On November 7, 2009, the Arabian Business page published a report regarding the US Congress, stating it expects Gamal Mubarak—son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the Policy Secretary of the National Democratic Party—to be the party's candidate in the 2011 presidential elections.
America fears that Hosni Mubarak might die before the next elections, so it is making preparations and grooming potential individuals from among its men, the most likely of whom is currently Gamal Mubarak. Gamal Mubarak is a figure of trust for them, as he worked at the Bank of America Cairo branch and became the manager of the bank's branch in London. In 2001, he was granted honorary membership in the Rotary Club, which is an American Masonic club.
Second: The Egyptian regime's interest in preparing Gamal to be the president after his father, and indicators of this interest include:
The regime has promoted Gamal Mubarak to positions where he makes decisions, such as his chairmanship of the Policy Committee of the National Democratic Party (NDP), as well as his promotion to Assistant Secretary-General of the ruling NDP. Recently, voices from the highest positions in the state have emerged nominating him for the presidency. Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif stated: "Gamal Mubarak is a candidate to succeed his father in the upcoming presidential elections in 2011." (Radio Netherlands, October 28, 2009).
The regime in Egypt provides all resources and many powers to Gamal Mubarak to present him in the best light, aiming to make people accept him and covering his poor past and present by polishing his image with all kinds of artificial makeup. Gamal Mubarak began appearing as someone interested in and addressing people's problems; he appears to care for the poor and help them, as well as for students and solving their issues. He started using the internet, imitating Obama, to answer the problems of the youth. The regime fabricates sensitive problems for the people and allows Gamal Mubarak to solve them, such as the problem of the live broadcast of the 2009 Egyptian League matches and the cement subsidy problem in 2009. Groups appeared supporting Gamal Mubarak's succession of his father, such as the "Yes" group headed by a Copt named Mamdouh Zakhari Girgis, and the "Ahrar" (Freemen) group which distributes leaflets and posters carrying the slogan "Gamal Mubarak... a beautiful dream for a more beautiful country." Its founder, Adel Sayyed, a young doctor, says the movement was founded in 2006 and operates secretly based on security advice, and that its members have reached 40,000, the oldest of whom is no more than thirty years old, most being university students (Al Jazeera, September 10, 2007). Alongside this, a "group of youth led by a former deputy wearing shirts that say 'Love, Sincerity, and Loyalty... Gamal Mubarak's Vanguards'" appeared in the village of Al-Najah in Beheira Governorate, where Gamal Mubarak delivered a speech at a popular conference attended by a crowd of ministers (Al Jazeera, September 3, 2009). All of this happens under the watchful eye of the regime, and indeed, by its planning.
From all of this, it appears that the regime, and America behind it, are creating the conditions to facilitate Gamal Mubarak's accession to the presidency succeeding his father.
As for Ayman Nour, his background confirms his loyalty to Europe (the British). Therefore, it is unlikely that the regime, and America behind it, will enable him to reach the presidency in Egypt as long as American influence remains strong. Indicators of this include:
Ayman Nour began his political life in the Wafd Party and was close to its leader, Mohamed Fouad Serageddin. He was the deputy editor-in-chief of the Al-Wafd newspaper. It is well known that the Wafd Party is a pro-British party from the era of British colonialism. He later moved from the Wafd to the Misr Party and then to the Al-Ghad Party, which he founded in October 2004. These are parties that share the Wafd Party's primary loyalties, with some minor differences.
The regime exerted great effort in harassing the Al-Ghad Party until the party split a year after its founding. The split was led by the party's Secretary-General, Moussa Mostafa Moussa, who became the party leader and then announced the dismissal of Ayman Nour and his wing. He stated the reason was: "What Nour calls for represents a clear intention to disrupt the constitution and harm social peace" (Al-Gomhuria newspaper, October 13, 2009). It is clear from this that the Egyptian regime was behind this split, as what Moussa Mostafa said about Ayman Nour's intention to disrupt the constitution and harm social peace is a government accusation!
He was subjected to several arrests by the Egyptian regime under various pretexts, but it is clear that this was because he worked secretly and openly against the regime and its policies... He explicitly called for amending the Egyptian constitution or establishing a transitional phase for one year during which a constituent assembly would be called for a new constitution, in which none of those responsible for the transitional phase would participate. His serious quest to change the regime was clear, even his slogan was "Hope for Change."
The Europeans strongly demanded his release and objected to his arrest from the first day, working to contact him while he was in prison. Reuters reported on February 1, 2007: "The British Edward McMillan-Scott, Vice-President of the European Parliament and its rapporteur for democracy and human rights, sought yesterday to visit the opposition figure Ayman Nour but was prevented from doing so after waiting for an hour and a half. McMillan-Scott called on the European Union to take a tougher and stricter stance toward the Egyptian regime, pointing out that this regime deprived Nour of his freedom." Al Jazeera reported on October 11, 2008, citing the German News Agency, that "Ayman Nour stated while in prison that the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, filed a complaint on August 15 against Egyptian officials, headed by President Hosni Mubarak, Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, and Attorney General Abdel Meguid Mahmoud, regarding his detention..." This complaint was one of the strongest types of European pressure on the Egyptian regime. It is well known that Europe is behind the International Criminal Court. This also includes the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and its publication of a series of reports in 2008 exposing the falsity of the Egyptian regime's claims against Ayman Nour. This shows the extent of the Europeans' interest in and adoption of Ayman Nour.
The statements of American officials regarding Ayman Nour's case were ordinary statements necessitated by their slogans, but without a serious position to secure his release. However, when the European campaign intensified and reached the International Criminal Court, America feared for its loyal Egyptian regime, lest it face an international crisis added to the Bashir crisis... So it began focusing on democracy and human rights shortly before Obama's visit to Egypt. Its media outlets began demanding the release of detainees and mentioned Dr. Ayman Nour in their demands, suggesting that this would lead to the success of Obama's visit... Then the Washington Post wrote on February 6, 2009: "Dr. Ayman Nour, leader of the Al-Ghad Party, must be released; this is necessary if the Egyptian President wishes to meet Barack Obama under the current circumstances." Ayman Nour was released two days after this was written by the newspaper. His release, a few months before his prison term ended, was to alleviate pressure on the Egyptian regime regarding the European campaign and to show that America is the decision-maker and the influencer, not Europe.
Thus, it becomes clear that the likely loyalty of Ayman Nour is to Europe, especially the British. His political upbringing in the Wafd Party, the sponsorship of its former leader Mohamed Fouad Serageddin—the British agent—for him, his promotion to deputy editor-in-chief of the Al-Wafd newspaper, and the interest shown by European politicians, newspapers, media, and their International Criminal Court all confirm what we have concluded. This means that the regime, and America behind it, will not enable him to reach the presidency. Rather, the person with the best chance for the presidency after Hosni Mubarak is his son Gamal, as long as American influence remains dominant in Egypt.