Question:
On 17/07/2021, a high-level negotiation session was announced in Qatar between two delegations: 7 representatives from the Taliban and 7 from the government, to discuss fundamental issues. This followed the US President's announcement on 08/07/2021 that the withdrawal of his forces from Afghanistan would be completed by August 31, retracting previously set deadlines. It has been noted that the Taliban movement has advanced across large areas of Afghanistan, reaching 85% as the movement announced... According to the Doha Agreement, it stipulates conducting negotiations between the movement and the government to reach a political participation. Will the Taliban control the government or participate in it? And will America actually leave, or will its influence continue?
Answer:
To clarify the most likely view on these matters, we review the following:
1- When America began seriously planning its withdrawal from Afghanistan since late 2010 and early 2011, it started seeking serious negotiations with the senior leaders of the Taliban. Pakistan was the intermediary for these negotiations and showed flexibility towards the Taliban. In 2014, negotiations led to the release of 5 Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo Bay in exchange for the Taliban releasing one American, Sergeant (Bowe Bergdahl), who was held by the Taliban... Then, the preparations for negotiation accelerated. Two individuals with long service to the parties they represent took charge: on September 5, 2018, Zalmay Khalilzad was appointed as the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation and was tasked with ending the American military occupation of Afghanistan. Within two months of Khalilzad's appointment, on October 25, 2018, Pakistan released Mullah (Abdul Ghani Baradar), who had been held in Pakistan since his arrest in Karachi during a raid on February 8, 2010. After his release, he was appointed head of the Taliban's office in Doha... The BBC published on 25/02/2019: ("...Mullah Baradar's name topped the lists of prisoners whose release the movement demanded in its successive negotiations with American officials and the Afghan government, until he was released in October 2018. Then Baradar took responsibility for the movement's political office in Qatar since last January"). These two men played a prominent role in the negotiations.
2- These negotiations culminated in the Doha Agreement on 29/02/2020. The most prominent part of it, as published by BBC News: ("American and Afghan officials announced that the United States and its NATO allies will withdraw their forces from Afghanistan within 14 months if the Taliban movement fulfills its commitments under an agreement signed in Qatar in Doha today. The announcement came in a joint American-Afghan statement issued in Kabul.
U.S. President Donald Trump said it was a 'long and hard journey' in Afghanistan. He added, 'After all these years, it is time to bring our soldiers back home'"). The agency added: ("And more than 2,400 American soldiers were killed in Afghanistan...").
3- After the Doha Agreement, statements and meetings accelerated with continued skirmishes, fluctuating between concession and escalation:
CNN published on 14/04/2021 that Joe Biden announced: ("I am now the fourth United States president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans. Two Democrats. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth. It is time to end America's longest war").
Biden delivered a speech followed by a press conference broadcast by American and international television media on 08/07/2021, saying: ("We announce the end of the longest war in the history of the United States. We succeeded in our mission in Afghanistan by eliminating Al-Qaeda and killing its leader Osama bin Laden," and "The military mission continues until the end of next August." He said, "American forces did not come to Afghanistan to build a country; that is the responsibility of the Afghans, and they must manage their state in the way they see fit for them"... and that the danger has moved outside Afghanistan and that the priority now is strategic competition with China, facing COVID-19, and cyber terrorism. We cannot do that if we continue in battles that started 20 years ago"). The American White House spokesperson, Jen Psaki, was more explicit when she said: ("There are no plans to celebrate the completion of the American withdrawal. We will not celebrate a mission-accomplished moment in this regard; it is a war that lasted 20 years without achieving a military victory"... Anadolu Agency 08/07/2021). Meaning that America did not achieve victory in Afghanistan over 20 years... It even evacuated Bagram Airfield on 02/07/2021, its most important and largest base, after closing its other bases, effectively ending its crusade campaign before the official date previously announced by its President Biden, which was September 11, and before the second date he set in his speech, next August 31.
During this, the Taliban movement expanded its military attacks, and districts began to fall in the north, south, west, and then the center. The speed of the Taliban's control over many Afghan territories became striking, especially on the borders of neighboring countries and its seizure of crossings with neighboring states... Shihabuddin Delawar, a member of the Taliban delegation's negotiating team, announced from Moscow on 09/07/2021 that: ("The movement has gained control over 85% of Afghan territory." The spokesman for the Afghan security forces, Ajmal Omar Shinwari, denied this, saying: "It is not true; battles are continuing in most areas"... France-Presse 11/07/2021). However, the Taliban delegation pledged ("not to target neighboring and friendly countries" and that "its visit to Moscow aims to provide all the information the Islamic Emirate has. And it will not allow the expansion of the Islamic State organization in Afghanistan and that the movement will fight it. And that the movement is conducting negotiations with representatives of society to determine the general structure of the state and that this work is nearing completion. And that the movement does not aim to fully usurp power"... Al Jazeera 09/07/2021).
4- Then it was announced on 17/07/2021: ("The two parties to the conflict in Afghanistan agreed today, Saturday, in Doha to form a committee composed of 14 members equally to discuss the negotiation agenda which examines fateful files. Al Jazeera's correspondent quoted a source in the Afghan negotiations in Doha saying that the opening session of the talks ended in a positive atmosphere. The new round of negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement began today in the Qatari capital, Doha, and this round discusses files and issues described as fateful. Abdullah Abdullah—the head of the Afghan Reconciliation Commission and head of the government delegation—said that achieving peace in the country requires flexibility from both sides, adding that the ground is now suitable for peace. For his part, the head of the Taliban's political office in Doha, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said they would do their best to reach a positive result in the Afghan peace talks that started today in Doha. Source: Al Jazeera + Agencies").
5- Then the committee concluded its work today, 18/07/2021, and a joint statement was issued about the meeting stating: ("Al Jazeera's correspondent in Doha said that the delegations of the Afghan government and the Taliban reached an agreement on a joint final statement for their ongoing negotiations in Doha with Qatari mediation, provided they hold another meeting soon within the Doha track. The two parties agreed to accelerate negotiations to find a just settlement for the conflict that has been going on in the country for decades. The joint statement of the Afghan government and Taliban delegations stipulated the agreement to accelerate negotiations in order to reach a just solution, provided they are conducted at a high level until the settlement is reached. The statement came after the conclusion of the second session of the Afghan peace talks, aimed at reaching a political settlement leading to peace in the country after decades of war. A source in the Taliban delegation stated that the movement submitted a proposal including measures to build trust between it and the government, by releasing prisoners on both sides and announcing a temporary truce during the period of Eid al-Adha...". Source: Al Jazeera + Agencies).
6- It is worth mentioning the position of the most prominent countries that America effectively uses in negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan:
a- Pakistan: It was Pakistan that forced the Taliban to hold talks with the United States in 2018. Zalmay Khalilzad thanked Pakistan for facilitating the Taliban's travel for talks in Doha, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin "expressed his gratitude" to his Pakistani counterpart in March 2021 for "Pakistan's continued support for the Afghan peace process." (Pentagon chief praises Pakistan's role in the Afghan peace process, Al-Fajr Magazine, March 23, 2021). Senior military officers and the political class in Pakistan have played a key role in the American strategy in Afghanistan.
Thus, the Pakistani role is a major one with a history; the Afghan Taliban movement has Pakistani roots, and Pakistani intelligence (ISI) has influence in Afghanistan, as well as its contacts and men within the Taliban. For all these reasons, America relies heavily on Pakistan's role.
b- Turkey: Just as it did in Syria and Libya, Turkey is moving towards Afghanistan and assisting the foreign policy goals of the United States. During an international meeting in the Turkish seaside resort of Antalya, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu proposed that Turkey operate and secure Kabul's airport... Washington welcomed Ankara's clear commitment to play a major role in securing Kabul airport after the Biden-Erdogan meeting in Brussels last month. It wants Turkey to perform the guarding mission at the airport, where it still maintains about 500 soldiers. Biden referred to this in his recent speech, saying, "We are coordinating closely with our partners to secure the international airport in Kabul." Erdogan said, "We have determined with the United States and Nato the arrangements for the future mission, what we accept and what we do not accept... We raised this issue during the Nato meetings and during my meeting with Biden and during discussions between our delegations... We will implement this measure in Afghanistan in the best possible way"... Al Jazeera 09/07/2021). Turkish Presidency spokesperson İbrahim Kalın said: "Turkey may continue the mission of securing Kabul airport after the withdrawal of Nato forces and the end of the American-led Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan this summer" (03/07/2021 Al-Sharq Al-Awsat). The Taliban movement rejected the Turkish presence and announced in a statement "its rejection of Turkish forces remaining in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of international forces led by the United States from the country and stressed that such a decision is reprehensible. It said that the decision of the Turkish leaders is not wise because it is a violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity and is contrary to our national interests" (Al Jazeera 13/07/2021).
c- Central Asia: The United States has been talking with leaders in Central Asia about repositioning some of its forces there. The New York Times reported that American officials were in contact with Kazakh, Uzbek, and Tajik authorities regarding the possibility of using bases in the region. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in tweets that he spoke on April 22 with the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan about the use of military bases by U.S. and other Nato forces. Drones, long-range bombers, and spy networks will be established to maintain surveillance over Afghanistan. (The New York Times, April 27, 2021).
7- From the above, the following is clear:
a- The continuation of negotiations does not lead to the removal of America from Afghanistan but rather to deception; it exits through the front door and returns through the back door guarded by agents and followers in Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and those who revolve in America's orbit within Afghanistan itself. Subsequently, they play the primary roles in maintaining American influence in Afghanistan...
b- As for Qatar, it prepares the atmosphere for negotiation for two purposes: First, to bargain with America to lift the Saudi blockade on it, which has happened... especially after the conclusion of the Doha Agreement on 29/02/2020 during the Trump administration... Second, Qatar and the British behind it have begun using their contacts with the Taliban to embarrass America as part of a calculated disruption. Qatar provides financial assistance to the Taliban movement and opens a representative office and a media platform for it. Consequently, America becomes in need of Qatar's role to facilitate its contacts with the Taliban... Thus, the British are in the picture of what is happening and use it to serve their interests in Qatar and the Gulf, exploiting America's need for the Qatari role in facilitating contact with the Taliban...
c- The Taliban's entry into negotiations with America and its agents in the Afghan regime was a great mistake... We ask Allah, the Almighty, the All-Powerful, to protect the Muslims in Afghanistan from its evil. The colonialist disbelievers do not negotiate except to achieve their interests due to circumstances surrounding them. Anyone who scrutinizes the circumstances surrounding America now can see them clearly:
Firstly: The emergence of China as a military and economic power in this century threatens American interests... and the American orientation towards it has become a priority. Statements by American officials express this as we mentioned earlier (in Biden's speech on 08/07/2021 he said: "...and the danger has moved outside Afghanistan and the priority now is strategic competition with China").
Secondly: The losses incurred by America in Afghanistan during its occupation, as we quoted earlier: (BBC News added on 29/02/2020 commenting on the Doha Agreement: "And more than 2,400 American soldiers were killed in Afghanistan...").
All this indicates that America was leaving Afghanistan dragging the tails of defeat without needing negotiations that preserve for it the influence it could not achieve in wars!
d- We realize that there are sincere brothers in the Taliban, so to them we address:
That they rectify the matter and stop these negotiations, so they do not enable America to achieve what it could not achieve in the war...
That they be certain that the primary cause for Muslims is the re-establishment of the Khilafah after a long absence, for it is the obligation of Allah (swt) and the obedience to the Messenger of Allah ﷺ...
That they know that participating in a government that is a mixture of Islam and secularism is not accepted by Allah, for the Almighty, the All-Powerful, accepts only that which is pure...
This is the truth:
فَمَاذَا بَعْدَ الْحَقِّ إِلَّا الضَّلَالُ
"So what is there after the truth except falsehood?" (Surah Yunus 10:32)
Following the truth is what will save the Taliban, the country, its people, and all Muslims... This is what Hizb ut-Tahrir advises you, just as it advised you at the beginning of your rule to declare the Khilafah, but you refused and then realized that you had erred in that refusal, as reported from Mullah Omar (rh) in one of his sessions, but it was too late... and here we are repeating the advice, so is there any respondent?
يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا اسْتَجِيبُوا لِلَّهِ وَلِلرَّسُولِ إِذَا دَعَاكُمْ لِمَا يُحْيِيكُمْ وَاعْلَمُوا أَنَّ اللَّهَ يَحُولُ بَيْنَ الْمَرْءِ وَقَلْبِهِ وَأَنَّهُ إِلَيْهِ تُحْشَرُونَ
"O you who have believed, respond to Allah and to the Messenger when he calls you to that which gives you life. And know that Allah intervenes between a man and his heart and that to Him you will be gathered." (Surah Al-Anfal 8:24)
9th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1442 AH 19/07/2021 CE
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