Question:
Russia intervened under the name of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Kazakhstan after its president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, requested its assistance in suppressing protests that broke out following the doubling of liquefied gas prices and then suddenly expanded. Russia accused external forces, particularly America, of interfering in the country's affairs and instigating the protests. Additionally, the director of the National Security Committee was accused of plotting a coup attempt. What is the background of these protests? Why did Russia intervene so quickly under the CSTO? And what is the American position regarding this?
Answer:
To clarify the answer to the above questions, we review the following points:
1- Kazakhstan, as part of Western Turkestan in Central Asia, is a vast Islamic country exceeding 2.7 million km², but its population is small relative to its area, numbering about 19 million, the majority of whom are Muslims (exceeding 75%). A large Russian minority lives in Kazakhstan, said to constitute 20% of the population, or about 3.5 million. The country is economically and geopolitically important to Russia, as it was under direct Russian control during the Soviet Union era until it declared independence in 1991. However, it remained linked to Russia within what is known as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It houses the Russian spaceport at the Baikonur site, from which rockets carrying spacecraft are launched. Russia used to monopolize its vast wealth; it is rich in oil, which accounts for 21% of the country's GDP, producing more than 1.5 million barrels per day. It is also one of the world's largest producers of uranium, as this Islamic country has a uranium reserve of 1.5 million tons. Large quantities of manganese, iron, chromium, coal, and natural gas are also available, with approximately 2 trillion m³ of natural gas discovered so far. Thus, Kazakhstan is vital for Russia, ranking second after Ukraine in what Russia considers its vital sphere of influence in the former Soviet space. Therefore, it exerts every effort to maintain its grip on it so that what happened to Ukraine—which gained independence in fact and not just in name like Kazakhstan—does not repeat itself!
2- America also realizes the importance of Kazakhstan, as its location is critical on Russia's southern border and China's western border. From here, America aspires to extend its influence in the country to encircle Russia from this side and deprive it of regional influence, while simultaneously encircling China from the other side. Furthermore, losing this country from Russia's hand might lead to the rest of the Central Asian countries escaping Russian control and influence. This American interest appeared since the declaration of Kazakhstan's independence; it was the first country to recognize Kazakhstan's independence, and subsequently, American companies began entering the country and took control of much of the oil and gas industry. For example, the American company Chevron owns 50% of the Tengiz oil field, which accounts for a third of the country's annual output. Similarly, European companies began to take control of part of Kazakhstan's energy resources. It is mentioned that ("about 90% of Kazakhstan's exports are energy resources such as oil and gas, and almost all of them are tied to and owned by Western capital, and the largest American and European oil companies"... Sputnik Russian Agency, 8/1/2022). America's attempts were not limited to oil and gas companies but extended to signing some military agreements during the administration of Nazarbayev, who ruled from 1989 until he announced his resignation in March 2019, and then during the period of his successor. However, their close relationship with Russia prevented America from concluding effective military agreements. Nevertheless, America did not despair. During his testimony before the Senate in February 2019, the commander of the US Central Command at the time, General Joseph Votel, described US relations with Kazakhstan as ("the most mature relationship in Central Asia"... cited by Al Jazeera, 6/1/2022). Contacts between the US and Kazakh militaries constitute an important aspect of bilateral relations. Since 2003, Kazakhstan has hosted multilateral military exercises, including those held in southeastern Kazakhstan in June 2019, in which US forces participated. Although these were closer to regular exercises, they indicate American interest in Kazakhstan, and Russia undoubtedly fears this interest.
3- Russia's fear increased when those protests occurred and expanded suddenly! These events began spontaneously, it seems, with protests against the doubling of liquefied gas prices by residents of the cities of Zhanaozen and Aktau in the west of the country on 5/1/2022. However, they expanded and spread to other cities like Almaty, the country's former capital and its largest city, and one of its most important commercial, economic, and financial centers. Reports mentioned that fire engulfed the presidential residence in the city, as well as the city hall. The Sputnik agency reported that "security forces imposed a security cordon around the administration building of the capital, Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), and residents of the capital rushed to withdraw their money from banks on a large scale amid the halt of non-cash payments due to the internet outage." Local media reported that "miners in the Balkhash region in the east of the country joined the protests and stopped working." Thus, the protests began to turn into acts of violence. The Kazakh ambassador in Ankara commented on the events in his country, saying: ("The beginning of the protests was aimed at demanding better living conditions and opposing the hike in liquefied gas prices. After moving to the city of Almaty, it took a different path and began to involve provocative and illegal practices"... Anadolu Agency, 6/1/2022). The resignation of the Kazakh government was announced on 5/1/2022 in an attempt to calm the situation, and liquefied gas prices were reduced. But the protests did not stop; rather, they expanded and evolved!
4- This expansion pushed Russia, even before Kazakhstan, to direct accusations at two parties:
The first party is internal/security:
a- The motive for this was that news was circulated that some security personnel were turning a blind eye to the protests and disturbances. Consequently, fingers of blame began pointing at the director of the National Security Committee (the intelligence service), Karim Massimov, responsible for maintaining security in the country. It was as if this man exploited the situation to seize power. Therefore, he was dismissed on 8/1/2022 and accused of treason. (The National Security Committee of Kazakhstan announced the arrest of its former head, Karim Massimov, on suspicion of "treason." According to a statement by the National Security Committee: "On January 6 of this year, the National Security Committee launched a criminal investigation into the fact of high treason, according to Article 175, Part One of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan." RT, 8/1/2022). Ermukhamet Ertysbayev, a former advisor to the former President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, had recently stated (that one of the reasons for the crisis in the country is the betrayal of some senior officials. He described what happened in the country recently as an "attempted coup and armed rebellion," saying: "The scale of this coup attempt and armed rebellion is shocking; it is an organized and powerful attempt, which was impossible to carry out without traitors from the highest levels of power, especially the executive authorities." RT, 8/1/2022).
b- Later, the Kazakh President Kassym Tokayev announced, justifying his request for the intervention of the Russia-led CSTO, saying: ("His country was subjected to a terrorist attack and an organized and premeditated act of aggression with the participation of foreign militants..." He added that "acts of violence by terrorists resulted in many casualties among members of the security services and civilians, and damage was caused to about 1,300 business facilities, attacks were launched on more than 100 shopping centers and banks, and 500 police cars were burned, and losses range between 2 and 3 billion dollars." He added, announcing "the arrest of about 10,000 people," and stated "that the situation has stabilized and is under control, the centers of terrorist threats have been neutralized, and particularly important strategic facilities and places for storing weapons and ammunition have been secured"... Russia Today, 10/1/2022).
c- Thus, Kazakhstan's President Tokayev requested Russia's intervention, and the Russians responded quickly, as if they had decided to intervene before he even requested it! They commenced military intervention in Kazakhstan through the CSTO, which it founded in 1992, and sent the first military battalion on 6/1/2022... (Al Jazeera Net, 6/1/2022). This was followed in the next two days by the transport of 2,500 soldiers with their equipment and military vehicles via air. More than 70 Russian military cargo planes participated in this emergency mission, including transporting troops from Armenia and Kyrgyzstan into Kazakhstan. For this reason, Tokayev said (I address words of special gratitude to Russian President Putin, as he responded quickly to my request for help... Russia Today, 7/1/2022). After that, Putin stated in a video conference of the CSTO Collective Security Council on 10/1/2022, saying: ("Some external and internal forces exploited the economic situation in Kazakhstan to achieve their purposes. The CSTO was able to take important measures to prevent the deterioration of the situation in Kazakhstan. It took the necessary decision at the right time. These forces will remain in Kazakhstan for a period determined by the presidency of this country. The events in Kazakhstan are not the first and will not be the last instance of external interference, and the CSTO countries showed that they will not allow 'color revolutions.' Recent events in Kazakhstan confirm that some forces do not hesitate to use cyberspace and social networks to recruit extremists and terrorists and form sleeper cells of militants"... Russia Today, 10/1/2022).
The second party is external:
Although Putin did not explicitly mention in his statement during the CSTO conference that America was linked to the events, his meaning was clear in its indication. What the Russian media circulated before that confirms this meaning, as they had spoken about a supposed role for America in the protests. This is also confirmed by the response of White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki when she described what was circulated by the Russian media as ("crazy claims by Russia" regarding the supposed responsibility of the United States for the riots shaking Kazakhstan, emphasizing that these allegations are "completely false" and expose "the Russian disinformation strategy." Independent Arabia, 7/1/2022). To justify the Russian intervention via the CSTO, the current chairman of the organization, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, emphasized (that the alliance responded to a request that came following "external interference." Independent Arabia, 7/1/2022). That is, all these statements indicate that Kazakhstan, and behind it Russia—or rather in front of it—sees that these events are not only for internal reasons but that America has a hand in them. This American hand in these events is evident from reviewing the following American statements:
a- During a phone call with his Kazakh counterpart, Blinken called for ("finding a peaceful solution to the turbulent situation in Kazakhstan and respecting media freedom," and State Department spokesman Ned Price said "that Blinken stressed the United States' full support for constitutional institutions in Kazakhstan and advocated for a peaceful solution to the crisis that respects human rights." He said: "America is concerned about the events in Kazakhstan, but it believes that the republic can handle it on its own without the help of the CSTO... AFP, 6/1/2022).
b- Blinken commented on the statements of Kazakh President Kassym Tokayev regarding shooting at protesters, saying ("I condemn this statement; if this is the national policy, then I condemn it... CNN, 9/1/2022). The Kazakh President had announced, saying, "I have issued orders to shoot at terrorists without prior warning," and added "that 20,000 terrorists participated in the attack on the city of Almaty."
c- America demanded the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kazakhstan. The State Department spokesman said ("that the CSTO forces must leave Kazakhstan... and that their presence raises questions. There is no basis for their presence"... Novosti, 11/1/2022).
From all this, America's opposition to summoning Russian forces to Kazakhstan appears. It demanded that Kazakhstan solve its problems without Russian intervention and not use violence against protesters. It realizes that this reinforces the Russian presence in Kazakhstan and the regime's link to Russia. It denied the accusations of its interference in the events, but the tone of its discourse was demanding not to suppress the protests and to observe human rights.
Summary:
a- It is clear from the above the extent of the importance that Russia attaches to Kazakhstan. Russia stood behind the activation of the CSTO treaty clauses to suppress the protests in Kazakhstan with iron and fire. This is the first time since the founding of the organization of the same name in 1992 that such an intervention occurred, despite the events that rocked some countries of that treaty without an intervention by the organization, which indicates the extent of that importance.
b- However, on the other hand, the destabilization of security conditions in Kazakhstan has highlighted new vulnerabilities for Russian influence in the Soviet periphery. This may tempt the West to surround Russia with a ring of crises extending from Central Asia to Belarus!
c- Nevertheless, America was not able to achieve all it wanted from its attempts to extend its influence in Kazakhstan. It appears that it was satisfied with the course of the protests and wanted to employ them, and that it exploited them to have men on the inside and then apply pressure from within and without.
d- It is truly saddening that the enemies compete over an Islamic country like Kazakhstan, plundering its wealth and exploiting its location and capabilities for their interests, while the agents among the people of the country care for nothing but the struggle for seats and obtaining the highest positions. They leave the people of the country poor and suffering doubly while their land is rich in resources and bounties, even though the majority of its people are Muslims, and Islam commands them not to allow the disbelievers a way over them. From here, the necessity of working to establish the Rightly Guided Khilafah on the method of Prophethood is reaffirmed once again, to save the land and the people. Then this Ummah will return as it was, the best nation produced for mankind, honorable and victorious.
وَلَيَنْصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَنْ يَنْصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِيٌّ عَزِيزٌ
"And Allah will surely support those who support Him. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might." (Surah Al-Hajj [22]: 40)
12th Jumada al-Akhira 1443 AH 15/01/2022 CE