Question:
Finland and Sweden officially applied to join NATO on May 18, 2022, at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, this announcement was quickly followed by a Turkish objection due to the two countries' positions on Turkey's fight against armed Kurdish groups, primarily the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is active in Turkey and the region. It is well known that all thirty members must approve as a primary condition for membership, including Turkey. So, what is behind all of this and what are its motives?
Answer: To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
First: With the joining of Finland—which took the lead in making the decision before Sweden followed suit—the length of Russia's shared border with NATO member states (currently viewed as a "hostile alliance") will double to 2,600 kilometers. Note that the border with Finland alone is 1,300 km. In comparison, the length of the disputed Russian border with Ukraine—whose potential NATO membership was a major pretext for the current war—is no more than 400 km. If Sweden joins later, even though it does not share a direct border with Russia, it will become easier for NATO to conduct broader and more dangerous activities in the Baltic Sea. In this case, all countries with an outlet to the Baltic Sea, except Russia, will be members of the alliance, which means weakening Russia's strategic presence in this basin while it turns almost into a lake controlled by the Western alliance. Sweden's accession to NATO also means transferring the territory of the Swedish island of Gotland to the alliance's control. Consequently, it will be more difficult for Russia to operate actively in this region, conduct exercises and maneuvers, or even strengthen permanent presence capabilities in the area. It cannot be ignored here that Sweden, for example, possesses five highly modern submarines that will constitute a qualitative addition to the fleets of Poland and Germany, further encircling any Russian military movements in the region.
Second: From a military perspective, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance places the Kremlin before extremely complex and difficult options. This is not limited to the military and strategic dimensions of the most dangerous development of its kind since the Cold War. Beyond that, on the political level, the Kremlin fought the war in Ukraine under a primary slogan of pushing back the danger of NATO expansion eastward and preventing the alliance from strengthening its influence in Ukraine near the Russian borders. So how is it now, after Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance? This will be one of the most dangerous political repercussions of this war, because the alliance will effectively be only 200 kilometers from the borders of the city of St. Petersburg. This constitutes a severe political blow to President Vladimir Putin's ambitions and raises internal questions about the feasibility of launching the war on Ukraine in the first place without calculating such dangerous repercussions!
Third: The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will have repercussions on the Western confrontation with China. It is expected that the mission of deterring Chinese influence will be confirmed in the alliance's strategy for the first time in its history during the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of this month, June 2022. Furthermore, NATO does not hide its ambitions to expand the scope of the alliance outside the Western world, having sent invitations to attend this event to the foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. From this angle, the official request submitted by Finland and Sweden to join NATO constitutes a political victory for President Joe Biden, a failure for President Putin, and a danger to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Fourth: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded shortly after the end of World War II. It is an alliance comprising 30 countries, and Turkey is the second military power in it after the United States. When a new country applies for membership, it requires the unanimous approval of the alliance members to invite it to join. From here stems the importance of Turkey's reservation regarding the accession of the two European countries. Turkey has officially supported the expansion of the alliance since joining the bloc 70 years ago. Now, Erdogan opposes Sweden and Finland joining NATO for four reasons:
- Erdogan's attempt to stay in power amid the economic contraction. The inflation rate in Turkey has risen to triple digits amid the decline of the Lira's value, which has plunged the already staggering economy into a deeper crisis. This poses problems for the President ahead of the 2023 elections, making Erdogan's position weaker than ever since he came to power about 20 years ago. His popularity in recent opinion polls is declining; therefore, by pressuring the alliance by showing resistance to the joining of Finland and Sweden, he hopes to achieve economic and military aid from the alliance countries that will improve his popular status before the elections.
- Erdogan hopes to exploit the issue of Sweden and Finland's NATO membership as an opportunity to achieve a long-held goal of establishing a buffer zone free of Kurdish fighters along Turkey's border with Syria. By expanding the "liberated areas," Turkey can resettle Syrian refugees who constitute a problem in Turkey according to the opposition. The plans for the military operation also reflect his belief that the West will not oppose such operations when it needs Ankara's support for the two European countries' efforts to join the alliance. Erdogan's announcement also aims to bolster support from nationalists at a time when he is preparing for difficult elections next year. Cross-border military operations have boosted his approval ratings in the past. His move comes at a time when opinion polls show declining support for Erdogan and his ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), amid raging economic problems.
- Erdogan's desire to meet the US President. Last April, Erdogan complained in statements to reporters that he and Biden do not enjoy the type of relationship he had with former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama. (Erdogan said: "Of course, there are some meetings from time to time, but they should have been more advanced." He added: "I hope we can achieve this in the next process") (https://arabic.cnn.com 05/24/2022). That is, this matter is not related to Sweden and Finland, but rather it is an appropriate moment through which Erdogan hopes to accelerate his meeting with Biden, who has kept the Turkish leader at a distance.
- Stopping Western support for the Kurds and having the West hand over members belonging to the "Hizmet" movement. Erdogan is still pursuing those belonging to the Hizmet movement (The Turkish newspaper Zaman reported that authorities issued arrest warrants for 40 people, including dismissed employees and military personnel, on charges of "belonging to the Hizmet movement," affiliated with the preacher Fethullah Gulen. The newspaper pointed out the start of a security campaign in many cities centered in Istanbul and Ankara to arrest those wanted... Source: Zaman 06/01/2022). As for Western support for the Kurds, despite the European Union's classification of the PKK as a terrorist organization, many European countries have provided weapons support to the "People's Protection Units" (YPG), the military arm of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara considers the Syrian extension of the PKK. Therefore, Turkey met this with strong rejection. Ankara also objects to some European countries hosting representative offices for Kurdish organizations, receiving their members, and allowing them to organize political events on their soil. The majority of European countries have not responded to Ankara's requests to extradite them. Erdogan brought up this issue when speaking about his country's objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, trying to exploit it to influence the removal or reduction of Western support for the Kurds, as well as the extradition of those belonging to the Hizmet movement.
Fifth: Intensive talks are taking place between Turkey on one hand, and Sweden, Finland, the United States, and NATO members on the other, in an effort to meet some of Ankara's demands in exchange for its approval of Stockholm and Helsinki joining the alliance. (On May 18, 2022, Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin held phone talks with senior officials in Germany, Sweden, Finland, Britain, and the United States, dealing with the issue of Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO... https://futureuae.com 05/27/2022). (On the same day, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu held the first meeting of the "Turkish-American Strategic Mechanism" with his American counterpart, Antony Blinken, in New York, where the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO was discussed... https://mubasher.aljazeera.net 05/18/2022).
Sixth: Accordingly, it is expected that Turkey will reach a settlement with the European powers and the United States regarding the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. It is not likely, according to current data, that Ankara will persist in its objection to the point of completely blocking the two countries' accession to the alliance. Rather, it is expected in the end that it will agree after obtaining some "compensation" on the four points mentioned in item four above. Even if this takes time, something similar has happened before. In 2009, Turkey protested the appointment of former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as head of NATO, but after negotiations that took time, Turkey agreed to Rasmussen's appointment in exchange for obtaining "compensation" positions within the political and military structure of the alliance.
2nd of Dhu al-Qi'dah 1443 AH 01/06/2022 CE