Question: What led America, which dominates the government in Pakistan, to agree to pardon Bhutto and return her to Pakistan, given that she and her followers were imbued with loyalty to the British during the eight years she spent in London?
Furthermore, where is Pakistan heading amidst these successive events?
Answer: Answering this question requires looking back a little:
1 - Matters began to accelerate in Pakistan after Bush and the Neo-conservatives came to power in America, especially after the September 11 bombings. The American invasion of Afghanistan was a decisive factor in making the Pakistani President and America's primary agent in the region, Pervez Musharraf, stand with the Americans in their invasion of Afghanistan and their war against the Mujahideen Muslims within Pakistan itself. Musharraf's joining America in its declared war on terrorism (Islam) was effectively an announcement of launching a new military Crusade against the Kashmiri and Pakistani Jihadi movements and currents that used Pakistan as a stronghold and launching pad.
Through this alliance with the Americans, Musharraf succeeded in depriving these Mujahideen of their safe stronghold and base in Pakistan. He succeeded where all previous Pakistani governments had failed in their attempts to close Mujahideen camps, pursue them, arrest them, and label them as terrorists.
This traitor presented the greatest gift to India, which had been unable for decades to deter Pakistan from supporting these Mujahideen. This gladdened the hearts of the Hindus, who fully integrated with the new terminology launched by the Bush administration in fighting ("Islamic terrorism")—as they describe it—and considered the Kashmiri Jihadi resistance a form of terrorism. In this regard, the current Congress government with its British tendencies did not differ from the previous Janata government with its American inclinations.
2 - American officials did not stop demanding more from Musharraf, for he who finds humiliation easy finds it easy to endure. An American intelligence official threatened in the New York Times on 23/07/2007 to strike the tribal areas, and U.S. Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said two days later that Osama bin Laden was in an area in Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan, urging (Musharraf) to do more by mobilizing armies in the border area.
Indeed, the American administration was not satisfied with the services provided by the Pakistani army to the Americans on the borders; it demands more so that he performs the difficult and dirty tasks on its behalf.
The American administration wants Musharraf to continue the same approach he followed in fighting Islamic currents such as Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Harakat-ul-Mujahideen (formerly Al-Ansar), Jaish-e-Mohammed, and other movements. They want him to secure the 1,500-kilometer Afghan-Pakistani border, prevent fighters from using Pakistani territory to launch attacks against the American and NATO occupation in Afghanistan, and declare a total and decisive war against the tribesmen supporting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
Perhaps the visit of John Negroponte, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State specializing in igniting civil wars and bloodshed, to Islamabad in July 2007, was aimed at achieving these goals through the continued presence of Musharraf in power—a man accustomed to betraying Muslims and dedicating himself to serving the Americans. Negroponte admitted that during his visit to Pakistan, he discussed the issue of conducting a military strike within the tribal provinces.
3 - Musharraf has become accustomed to the policy of the "big stick" that America uses against him. He is an obedient agent who executes orders even if they are blatantly against the interests of his people and country. For this reason, the Americans described him as a "treasure," as he is a guaranteed agent who fulfills all American conditions in a volatile region like Pakistan.
He defied the feelings of Muslims, standing with America in its aggression against Afghanistan and making Pakistan an American front line in that aggression.
He is mobilizing armies in the tribal areas on the Afghan border in Waziristan and Balochistan, and the number of Pakistani military forces stationed on the Pakistani-Afghan border has been increased from 80,000 to 90,000. Today, 26/10/2007, he is launching a violent attack on Muslims in the Swat Valley, northeast of Peshawar, because they want to raise the status of Islam.
All this is to ignite the bloody war that Washington wants and pushes its agent Musharraf to continuously execute between Muslims: the Pakistani army on one side and the Muslim tribes on the other, in a provocative manner to keep the fire burning. Musharraf dealt with the protest movements against his link with America as one who wants to ignite a civil war, not as one who wants to reach a solution. This was evident when he killed the leader of the movement in Balochistan, Akbar Khan Bugti, aged 79, in August 2006, which caused the movements to increase and intensify, further exacerbating the crisis. Bugti was known by the title "The Old Lion" and held the positions of Governor and Chief Minister of Balochistan province in the late 1970s.
4 - When the Pakistani army was forced, following Bugti's killing and the escalation of movements against Musharraf's army, to conclude an agreement with the tribes to calm things down in September 2006, America was not pleased. America, under the name of NATO, carried out a bloody attack in the Bajaur border area in November 2006 to spoil the agreement with the tribes. American officials then intensified their statements criticizing the agreement and urged (Musharraf) to mobilize armies in the tribal areas, all to destabilize the agreement. This is exactly what happened: Rice criticized the agreement in her speech to Congress on 16/02/2007, and Cheney, the U.S. Vice President, criticized it on the same day during his visit to Pakistan. Likewise, Musharraf carried out Washington's wish by mobilizing armies on the border in a provocative manner to the tribes, in escalatory steps to cancel the agreement. It is clearly evident that America does not want to pacify the region peacefully but rather wants the war to remain burning between Muslims so they are distracted from resisting its occupation of Afghanistan. They found in Musharraf a "treasure," as they described him, to carry out their goals.
After that, to motivate Pakistan to do more in attacking the tribes and Al-Qaeda, White House spokesman Tony Snow stated that Al-Qaeda poses a major threat to Pakistan, and therefore they are studying the possibility of conducting a surgical operation against specific Al-Qaeda targets inside Pakistan.
This prompted Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to declare that they are capable of carrying out such an operation themselves and that they will never allow Pakistani territory to be used as a launching pad for the activities of any terrorist organization. Thus, he tried to justify the operations launched by Pakistan against Muslims under the pretext that "if we do not carry out the operations, America will intervene to do them itself!"
5 - Following this, the heinous attack on the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) occurred in mid-July 2007. As a result, the previous agreement between the army and the tribes ended, and a state of actual war emerged—but not between the aggressor America and the Muslims as it should be, but between the Muslim tribes and the Pakistani army, which reinforced its forces against the tribes on the orders of Musharraf and his treacherous administration. America, through Bush's National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, announced that it views these military reinforcements positively and supports them.
Thus, Musharraf's hostility toward the tribal areas became apparent. Matters were further escalated by the cruelty, criminality, massacres, and total rejection of any negotiations revealed during Musharraf's aggression against the Red Mosque, abruptly cutting off successful mediations, followed by the humiliation of scholars and mullahs during and after their arrest or killing.
This was regarding Musharraf's hostility toward the tribes.
6 - As for Kashmir, the solution offered by America is to maintain the status quo regarding the borders to please India, which America wants to become a peer to China in the Far East and Southeast Asia. Musharraf took several steps to normalize the de facto situation after the two countries reached a ceasefire in Kashmir in November 2003 and resumed ("peace") negotiations in January 2004. This allowed for the reopening of symbolic bus crossings in Kashmir between India and Pakistan, and both sides took steps to strengthen trade and economic relations to normalize the current situation. This solution is what is currently being offered by India; Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on 15/07/2007 that the divided Kashmir region could become a symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan, and that talks aimed at ending 60 years of conflict would continue. Manmohan Singh emphasized his position that: "Borders cannot be changed, but they can be made irrelevant," meaning they should not be hostile borders. In a speech while receiving an honorary degree in Jammu, the winter capital of Jammu and Kashmir, he said: "There can be no doubt that divisions and barriers remain, but the Line of Control—the border—can become a line of peace with a freer flow of ideas, goods, and services for the people." Singh added: "I hope and trust that Jammu and Kashmir can one day become a symbol of cooperation between India and Pakistan instead of conflict."
The current reality witnesses that this is the solution Musharraf is pursuing with India. All statements related to Kashmir from the Pakistani side recently no longer deviate from this framework. Since the 2004 negotiations, the right to self-determination for the people of Kashmir is no longer a subject of discussion for Musharraf's Pakistan; it has not demanded it as it used to, nor does Musharraf's government demand negotiations based on international resolutions, let alone returning Kashmir through Jihad. This means that matters are moving toward conceding Kashmir and consolidating the existing situation as a final solution for Kashmir.
7 - Thus, Musharraf has severed his ties with Islam and Muslims:
He stood with America in its aggression against Afghanistan, mobilized armies in a bloody attack in the tribal areas committing massacres in Waziristan and Balochistan, shelled the Red Mosque with weapons of destruction, lost Kashmir, humiliated scholars and students of Islamic schools, and arrested the carriers of the Islamic call...
Consequently, he became an outcast rejected by Muslims and found himself exposed without ("popularity") regarding his desire for a second presidential term. At that point, America had no choice to preserve its "treasure" but to turn to the secularists of the British—namely Benazir Bhutto and her party—by striking a deal with her through which Bhutto would become pure and clean from her corruption and malpractice that Musharraf had previously accused her of, and for which he had exiled her. Under the deal, he issued a pardon decree for her on 05/10/2007, just before the presidential elections which he moved forward to 06/10/2007, when they should have taken place after the parliamentary elections in January 2008. However, he feared that his followers would lose in the upcoming parliamentary elections in January 2008, making his election by the new parliamentary body for a second term unattainable. So, he prioritized the presidential election over the parliamentary election, as the old parliament was formed before his scandals spread, which had led some people to be deceived by him and vote for him in the previous elections. Thus, he won the election held on 06/10/2007 according to the previous parliamentary electoral body!
8 - A split emerged in the Pakistani government over the pardon project for Bhutto, as several members of the ruling "League" party considered dropping the charges "unfair." Religious Affairs Minister Ijaz-ul-Haq—son of the former military dictator Zia-ul-Haq, who executed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir's father, in 1979—said: "We expressed our reservations about the proposed amnesty offer, and we do not support it." He stressed that "amnesty should not be granted to corrupt politicians, especially those accused of looting $1.5 billion," referring to the opposition leader.
It is not strange for opposition to appear from within Musharraf's party, as the way this party was established explains this. Musharraf created his party (the Pakistan Muslim League-Q) from politicians he caused to defect from the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif), as well as from politicians who defected from the Pakistan People's Party (Benazir Bhutto), by threatening them with corruption charges if they did not comply. In a party like this, it is not surprising that conflicting opinions appear during crises.
9 - However, because the matter is greater than Musharraf's party, the opposition had no effect. Despite the opposition of some elements of his party, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto reached a deal agreement on 04/10/2007 managed by America and Britain in preparation for power-sharing between them. This was followed by the aforementioned pardon decree on 05/10/2007, 24 hours before the presidential elections that the court allowed to proceed on time. As a result of this pardon, Bhutto's party did not boycott the presidential election as the opposition parties did, thus securing the quorum and Musharraf's victory for a second term!
That pardon was part of the (National Reconciliation Ordinance) decree, which stipulates dropping the prosecution of politicians before the judiciary for crimes related to corruption. Before the presidential signature on that decree, the government approved it.
The decree allows for the pardon of politicians whose accused charges date back to the period from 1988 to 1999. It was drafted in this way so as not to include former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf overthrew in a bloodless coup in 1999, because the criminal cases filed against him date back to 2000.
Thus, the pardon was drafted to exclude Nawaz Sharif, even though he is a former agent of America. However, America became angry with him when he could not prevent the Pakistani army's sentiments from supporting the Kashmiri Mujahideen against the Indian army in the Kargil heights, which resulted in a defeat for the Indian army at the time in 1999. Its continuation nearly undermined the rule of the pro-American Vajpayee, so America overthrew him at the hands of Musharraf in 1999. Musharraf executed America's order and returned the Pakistani army to its positions held before the occupation of the Kargil heights. America did not overlook Nawaz Sharif's "slip" despite his years of service to it. If agents were wise, they would take heed from others and know that the colonial state discards its agent, no matter how much he served it, once it has exhausted its purposes for him.
After the aforementioned pardon decision issued on 05/10/2007, and after securing Musharraf's election on 06/10/2007, and after the Supreme Court's review of the validity of the presidential elections starting from 17/10/2007 (which has not invalidated the election results to this day despite its repeated meetings), Bhutto returned on 18/10/2007. She had served as Prime Minister twice from 1988 to 1990 and from 1993 to 1996, and she aspires to the premiership for a third time after the parliamentary elections in January 2008.
10 - America exerted effort in concluding the deal with Bhutto, all to ensure that its "treasure" Musharraf remains in power. Had Bhutto boycotted like the opposition did, it would not have been possible for Musharraf to win a second term.
America began the deal negotiations with the British and Bhutto in London for several months, until the broad outlines of future power-sharing were arranged between Musharraf as President and Bhutto as Prime Minister. America did this knowing that Bhutto would not accept being Prime Minister with current powers, but rather wanted actual power shared with the President. However, as the saying goes, "your brother is compelled, not a hero"; for Musharraf to remain while losing some powers to Bhutto is better than for American influence to vanish in Pakistan.
After that, in light of the basic steps taken by America, negotiations began between Musharraf and Bhutto—sometimes directly, other times between their envoys, sometimes in London and other times in the Emirates... and so on, to find balanced steps between the two parties with concessions here and gains there: Musharraf agreed to remove any legal obstacles to Bhutto's return "clean" of all corruption charges, as well as to enact legislation—if necessary—to facilitate Bhutto's assumption of the premiership for a third time since she had held it twice before, and not to harass her party in contesting the new elections at the beginning of next year... She agreed that her party would not boycott parliament as the opposition did, and that her followers in the Supreme Court would not stand against Musharraf's candidacy for the presidency before removing his military uniform until after his success...
Matters proceeded according to what they agreed upon:
The deputies of the People's Party led by Bhutto refrained from boycotting parliament as the other opposition deputies did.
The Supreme Court (Election Commission) reorganized the laws for electing the President issued in 1998. The Chief Justice, who opposed Musharraf and was loyal to Bhutto, was absent, making it easier for the remaining members to cancel Article (63), which constituted an obstacle for Musharraf. Consequently, he was allowed to run before removing his military uniform. At the same time, the secretary of Musharraf's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), stated that after Musharraf is elected for the second time, he will remove his uniform.
On September 27, when the candidacy for the presidential elections began, Musharraf stated that he would abide by the Supreme Court's decision on the permissibility of his candidacy after this permissibility was guaranteed! The Supreme Court (Election Commission) had issued a decision in Musharraf's favor on the last day of candidacy. On September 29, the Election Commission reviewed 43 applications, from which 6 were selected, including Musharraf's. Among those whose applications were accepted was Amin Fahim, one of Benazir Bhutto's supporters; however, he said that if Musharraf ran, he would withdraw his candidacy. Thus, Musharraf and his rival Wajihuddin Ahmed remained, along with three other candidates.
On October 1, when the final official lists of candidates were announced, 85 parliamentarians resigned, including supporters of Nawaz Sharif, but Bhutto's deputies continued! On October 2, one of Musharraf's ministers announced that Benazir Bhutto would not be criminalized. Immediately after that, Musharraf announced that if re-elected President, he would relinquish the post of Chief of Staff. He nominated one of his close associates to succeed him as Chief of Staff, the former head of intelligence Ashfaq Kayani. Musharraf believes that Kayani could be acceptable to Bhutto, or at least not objected to when she takes over the government, because Kayani was the one who led the government delegation on Musharraf's behalf during the months of talks with Bhutto's aides.
Then the pardon was issued on 05/10/2007, Musharraf won the election on 06/10/2007, the Supreme Court did not invalidate the results, and Bhutto arrived on 18/10/2007. Things proceeded smoothly, undisturbed except for the assassination attempt on Bhutto during her procession. It is unlikely that Musharraf was behind the attempt due to his need for her (at least) to pass the stage of the new elections at the beginning of next year. Nevertheless, as we mentioned, some wings of the government, especially those attributed to Zia-ul-Haq, protested against the pardon for Bhutto. Were the Bhutto deal not a vital matter for America and Musharraf at the present time, that deal would not have been concluded.
From the above, the reasons and motives that made America accept the deal with Bhutto are clear, even though it knows perfectly well that she was imbued with loyalty to the British during the eight years she spent in exile.
As for where Pakistan is heading in the midst of these events, since its establishment nearly sixty years ago, Pakistan has not been ruled by two colors but by one: the men of the British and then the men of America. For the first time in its history, it will be ruled with two heads: Musharraf with his loyalty to America, and Bhutto with her loyalty to the British—this is if the commitment to implementing the concluded deal continues. This makes the situation in Pakistan subject to conflict and unrest in the near future.
As previously explained, America was forced into the Bhutto deal to save Musharraf from falling and thus to maintain its influence in Pakistan, even if it is somewhat diminished due to the transfer of some powers to Bhutto and the British.
It is expected that the (good) implementation of the concluded deal will continue (at least) until the upcoming elections, as both Musharraf and Bhutto need that:
Musharraf to create an alliance in parliament between his party and Bhutto's party to enable him to issue the necessary decisions, and Bhutto to create weight for her party in parliament that enables her to reach the premiership through a legal formation (the majority party).
Although both are (secularists) and fight Islam and Muslims—their statements reveal this and what their hearts hide is even greater—the fact that they are agents for two different parties will not make their meeting last long.
This is because the struggle of the major powers for influence does not accept stopping halfway, especially when one of its parties is America with its arrogance and vanity. Therefore, America and Musharraf will fabricate problems for Bhutto legally and materially to reduce her size and even to re-exile her if they can. At the same time, the British and Bhutto, with known British malice as well as political shrewdness, will move to stir up the bad aspects of Musharraf's actions (and there are many, many) to be taken as an issue, or rather issues, to destabilize Musharraf's stay in the presidency, and even to remove him if they can, whether through political actions or judicial actions by moving their men in the Supreme Court against Musharraf once again...
Thus, what is expected is a struggle between the two parties, politically and materially. This has two faces:
A negative face, as the turmoil and instability resulting from the struggle make people's lives difficult and anxious.
And a positive face, where the forces of both parties are exhausted, Insha-Allah, and Allah takes revenge upon one oppressor with another, then takes revenge upon both of them, and Allah is Mighty and Wise.
And in this is good, Insha-Allah, for the Nusrah and its people.
وَاللَّهُ غَالِbuilderٌ عَلَى أَمْرِهِ وَلَكِنَّ أَكْثَرَ النَّاسِ لَا يَعْلَمُونَ
"And Allah is predominant over His affair, but most of the people do not know." (Surah Yusuf [12]: 21)
15 Shawwal 1428 AH 26/10/2007 CE