Question:
The South Korean Yonhap News Agency reported on April 21, 2013, that both the South Korean Chief of Staff, General Jung Seung-jo, and his American counterpart, General Martin Dempsey, warned North Korea against continuing its threats due to the dire consequences that would follow. On the same day, the aforementioned agency reported that a high-ranking government source announced that the South Korean military had detected the deployment of two mobile missile launchers, suspected of carrying "Scud" missiles, on the eastern coast of North Korea. North Korea had previously deployed seven mobile missile launchers, including a platform for the medium-range "Musudan" missile on the eastern coast; with the deployment of two additional launchers, the number of missiles in the region has reached nine...
Prior to this, Reuters reported on Thursday, April 18, 2013, that North Korea offered a series of conditions to the United States and South Korea if they desired dialogue, including the lifting of UN sanctions imposed due to its nuclear and missile tests, in a possible sign of ending weeks of war omens that have clouded the Korean Peninsula.
It added that the National Defense Commission in North Korea, the highest military body in the country, issued a statement mentioning that making the Korean Peninsula a nuclear-free zone would begin when the United States withdraws its nuclear weapons, which Pyongyang says Washington has pushed into the region...
It is clear from this that while statements of "hot war" are escalating, statements about dialogue are also increasing. So, where are things heading? Furthermore, what is the reality of the positions of Russia and China? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
This issue can be understood by reviewing its beginnings, rather than based on recent statements alone. This crisis has passed through many stages which we will review, and then we will examine the recent developments and the positions of various countries:
This crisis is not born of yesterday; rather, it is recurring and escalates with every nuclear test North Korea conducts. It escalated during the first test in 2006, as well as the second in 2009, which was larger than the first. At that time, on May 25, 2009, it announced that it was no longer committed to the armistice signed between it and America in 1953. Now, after conducting a third successful nuclear test on February 12, 2013, it similarly announced on March 30, 2013, its non-commitment to that armistice, even declaring that it is in a state of war. It began positioning its missiles off the eastern coast, directing them toward Japan and the American base on the island of Guam, which has been controlled by America in the Pacific Ocean since 1898 after the defeat of Spain (which had occupied it since 1521). America announced its annexation to its territories in 1950, and its population, exceeding 180,000, is considered part of its own population. America maintains naval and air military bases there with about 6,000 troops; thus, it is important to America as a defensive line for its territories from the Pacific side.
What is new this time is that America managed to provoke North Korea with large-scale maneuvers conducted near North Korea. These began on February 19, 2013, and continued until the end of that month, April 30, 2013. These were unprecedentedly large maneuvers that coincided with sanctions moved by America in the Security Council and approved by Russia and China on March 7, 2013, after the West—particularly America—effectively exploited North Korea’s third test on February 12, 2013. These maneuvers created a "hot" provocation for North Korea. The maneuvers were unusual in nature, as America introduced advanced types of forces, including B-52 and B-2 bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs, stealth aircraft, and warships carrying missile systems in a show of force to terrorize North Korea and others.
The sanctions and maneuvers are a continuation of the styles of evasion, deception, pressure, and threats that America adopts in the region. As for the evasion and deception practiced by America toward North Korea, for example, North Korea agreed last year on February 29, 2012, to suspend its nuclear program and allowed the return of inspectors. In return, America sent aid to the North amounting to 240,000 tons, in the first test process after the death of its leader Kim Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un’s assumption of power. In a maneuver of deception to stop the aid, America accused the Northern leaders of monopolizing this aid and depriving the people of it, in a process intended to humiliate North Korea by showing it as begging for aid while its officials steal it. As for the methods of challenge, pressure, and threat followed by America, it announced last year a new strategy for the Asia-Pacific region involving the reinforcement of its power in this region by moving 60% of its naval force there to face potential risks until 2020.
All these American methods were intended to provoke North Korea into acting aggressively. In turn, America uses these actions as justifications to expand its bases near China and Russia in the region under the pretext of repelling the North Korean threat. What matters to America in the first degree is China, and to a lesser degree Russia... not North Korea. The expansion of the American presence near China would normally meet a Chinese reaction (and a milder Russian one); however, if there is a justification for America—especially if it perfects its exploitation—it can expand militarily and even install a missile shield without a counter-uproar.
And this is exactly what happened. These provocations affected North Korea, pushing it toward hot escalation against America and its neighbors, South Korea and Japan. On March 9, 2013, North Korea hinted again at the outbreak of war in its region when its official agency published a statement saying: "The Korean Peninsula is heading toward a thermo-nuclear war." On April 3, 2013, this agency published a notice from the North Korean army stating that "American threats will be destroyed with smaller, lighter, and more diverse nuclear weapons," and that the army "has received approval to strike America, including the possibility of using advanced and diverse nuclear weapons." It also announced the cancellation of the armistice with America held since 1953.
North Korea then worked to escalate to the maximum, requesting Russia, Britain, and others to evacuate their embassies from the country, and asking foreigners to evacuate South Korea if events escalated. It placed its medium-range missiles on two launchers and hid them on the eastern coast in a move suggesting it is threatening Japan and American bases in the Pacific. It is responding to the maneuvers and the sanctions imposed by the United Nations. It also closed the industrial zone in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where Southern companies employ Northern workers, generating an income of about half a billion dollars last year. This zone was established by South Korea in the North, motivated by America, as a process of containment for the North. The work in the industrial zone between the two Koreas began in late 2004 according to a plan that started in 1998, comprising 123 South Korean companies and employing approximately 54,000 workers from North Korea. On April 2, 2013, North Korea announced the rehabilitation and operation of all facilities in the Yongbyon nuclear complex, which had been halted since 2007, including a uranium enrichment site and a 5-megawatt reactor, against the backdrop of this tension with America and South Korea. It wants America and the world to accept it as a nuclear state with ballistic missiles capable of defending itself and threatening others.
Following this, America began to exploit this hot tension resulting from North Korea’s fiery statements. It exploited this toward its objective: accelerating the deployment of the missile shield without a direct clash with Russia or China. It lured North Korea into creating justifications for America to expand its presence in the region, appearing as though it is doing so in defense of America and its allies, as Kerry stated during his visit to South Korea on April 12, 2013.
After the North Korean threats to strike American bases with its medium-range missiles, America announced—as reported by The New York Times on April 4, 2013—that it "will establish a missile shield on this island (Guam) to face medium-range missiles, as well as deploy anti-ballistic missile warships in the Pacific waters, whereas it was scheduled to deploy its missile shield in 2015." The newspaper added: "The decision to accelerate the deployment of the missile defense system came as part of a series of steps taken by Washington to deter North Korea from any military action or new missile tests, which was taken only a few hours after North Korean provocations..." It added that "deploying the missile defense system in Guam will unleash these warships to be positioned closer to the North Korean coast." This means they will be stationed adjacent to China, indicating that America benefited from its provocation of North Korea by accelerating the deployment of the missile shield in the region, and that it set a trap for North Korea in this manner to achieve these goals. Japan also announced the installation of Patriot missiles in the heart of the capital to counter North Korean missiles and stated it would allow the installation of the missile system on the island of Okinawa, where important American bases are located. Notably, the Japanese had been calling for the removal of the Americans from there, but now the Americans are reinforcing their presence under the pretext of North Korean threats, and no one is objecting.
The Philippines also announced its readiness to install this missile system and reinforce the American presence on its territory, even though there had been popular demands in the Philippines to end the American presence in the country.
Once America succeeded in exploiting North Korea's escalation as a justification for expanding the American military presence and deploying the missile shield, it returned to the customary policy of the Democratic Party: containing North Korea through dialogue "the American way." That is, by not making the issue appear as strictly American-North Korean, but by involving other regional countries, especially China, to become responsible for North Korea's actions. This is what the Six-Party Talks were designed for—to make the issue appear as North Korea vs. five other countries, rather than against America alone.
It is worth noting that the policy of Democratic administrations in America toward North Korea since Bill Clinton has been to resort to negotiation within its containment policy. It succeeded in 1994 in signing the first agreement with North Korea, but America maneuvered, especially during the Republican era, particularly in the first term of Bush Jr., who placed it in the "Axis of Evil." North Korea performed actions similar to its current ones—conducting a nuclear test and announcing non-commitment to the armistice—at the beginning of the first Obama administration in 2009. However, that administration did not respond to North Korea's provocations but instead called for the resumption of negotiations and allowed South Korea to continue its rapprochement with the North. Therefore, Democratic administrations tend toward negotiating with North Korea and applying the policy of containment. The situation is different now, as America wanted to employ this recent event to achieve important strategic goals before entering into negotiations and proceeding with the containment process. This will begin after it achieves the goals it planned and continues to plan since its announcement of installing the missile shield near the Korean Peninsula.
Thus, the statements took another turn but with conditions... which is the American game that leads only to diluting the issue and making it revolve in a vacuum under the name of "Six-Party Talks to ensure North Korea respects its international obligations." (AFP April 9, 2013). The second official in the Pentagon, Ash Carter, said: "The United States is in close contact with China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan," and stated that he "believes China can play a larger role in influencing North Korea to stop its provocation," emphasizing that "China has more influence over North Korea than any other party." US Secretary of State John Kerry said in South Korea before heading to China: "The United States will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power." He added: "Washington is ready to resume negotiations, but only if North Korea moves toward denuclearization." He said: "Beijing must take a tougher stance toward North Korea to push it to abandon its nuclear program." (Reuters April 12, 2013). Thus, America wants to make the North Korean issue a concern for the regional countries, especially China, and not America's issue alone.
As for China's position, it is different this time; it did not support North Korea in its steps. The new Chinese President, Xi Jinping, said: "No country should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains." He added: "We must act in consultation to overcome major difficulties to ensure stability in Asia, which faces new challenges, as long as there are sensitive issues and traditional and non-traditional security threats." (Asharq Al-Awsat April 7, 2013). Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for "the necessity of solving the crisis through dialogue." (Ibid). Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei announced that "the best solution to the North Korean nuclear issue is for all parties to exercise responsibility." (Reuters April 8, 2013). China supported the Security Council resolution regarding tightening sanctions on North Korea after its third nuclear test. This does not mean China has abandoned its friend North Korea, but it appears China sees North Korea's actions as harmful to its own interests, which annoyed it. This is because it reinforces the American presence in the region and gives America pretexts to install the missile shield in the entire region, which would be directed against China and its missiles, thwarting its plans to control its own region.
China announced its regret over Pyongyang's announcement to restart the nuclear reactor. The International Atomic Energy Agency stated that this announcement is another development that causes great regret and constitutes a flagrant violation of Security Council resolutions. This nuclear reactor is the sole source for producing plutonium for North Korea's nuclear program. Estimates suggest the North has enough plutonium stock to manufacture 4 to 8 nuclear bombs.
As for Russia's position, it was aligned with America and dissatisfied with North Korea's actions. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Alexander Lukashevich stated: "We stand in solidarity with them regarding the rejection of Pyongyang’s provocative and bellicose behavioral approach at the present time." However, he added at the same time that "we must not give up political and diplomatic efforts, because any country can bring the risk of severe disturbance in Northeast Asia." (Reuters April 9, 2013). Russia agreed to tighten sanctions on North Korea in the Security Council after the third test two months ago. Russia did not take serious stances toward the hostile American position against North Korea and America's provocation of it by conducting maneuvers with South Korea involving advanced weaponry. Russia did not pay attention to this or denounce it, even though it poses a danger to the region and aims to reinforce the American presence to terrorize everyone and impose American hegemony over the world. It is directed against Russia itself, such that it is not allowed any presence in this region. This behavior indicates a weakness in Russia's international political performance, declining to a level unbecoming of a major state that has its own international interests and works to compete with the Leading State or work to displace it from that position.
Thus, it can be said that America succeeded in provoking North Korea with massive maneuvers near its borders and with sanctions, which pushed North Korea toward escalating nuclear threats and a war atmosphere. This provided America with a justification to expand its military presence in the region and deploy the missile shield.
However, America’s arrogance, conceited by its power, makes its goals easily exposed. This enables China to realize America’s political games and its expansionist purposes in the region. All of this will cause the installation of the missile shield to enter a cycle of Chinese opposition once again.