Question:
Events in Kyrgyzstan accelerated as the opposition moved with a coup against Bakiyev on April 8, 2010, succeeding in seizing power. Bakiyev fled to his birthplace in the south of the country, and today, April 16, 2010, he submitted his resignation and left for Kazakhstan. At the same time, Russia was the first to recognize and bless the coup; the interim Prime Minister, Roza Otunbayeva, held official (telephone) talks with Russian Prime Minister Putin on Thursday, April 8, 2010—the very day the interim government took the reins of power. This implies that Russia is behind what happened. If this is correct, how did Russia turn against Bakiyev when it was the one that brought him to power in the 2005 coup against Askar Akayev and supported his recent election on July 23, 2009? Was his failure to close the American Manas Air Base the reason that provoked Russia to topple him?
Answer:
Yes, all evidence indicates that Russia was behind the ousting of Bakiyev. However, it was not because he failed to close the Manas base or because he renewed the Americans' lease. This is because Russia had agreed to the base remaining and to Bakiyev staying in power; in fact, Russia supported his election on July 23, 2009, after he had already renewed the base lease on July 15, 2009—meaning the renewal happened before his re-election and the Russian support for him. Russian support for his election was striking; Russian President Medvedev personally traveled to Kyrgyzstan and participated in the inauguration ceremony held for Bakiyev on August 2, 2009!
The Russians were not provoked by the renewal of the base lease; they had consented to it. Even the current new government brought in by the Russians has agreed to the base staying, and the coup leaders have explicitly stated this. Russia originally agreed to the base contract renewal to satisfy America and ward off its harm in this region, and because it considers the Manas base as a "transit" point—meaning passage to and from Afghanistan, a Muslim country that is an enemy to both of them. This base was not seen as interfering in internal affairs that affect Russian influence.
However, what did provoke the Russians and led them to orchestrate the coup against their former agent, Bakiyev, was something else. To understand it, we note the following events:
Richard Holbrooke, the US President's envoy to Afghanistan, visited Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on February 19, 2010, and met with the presidents of both countries. The "Russia Today" website, citing the Russian "Interfax" agency on February 19, 2010, reported that Holbrooke discussed with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev: "the prospects of bilateral relations and the situation in Afghanistan, and the two parties exchanged views away from the spotlight regarding the situation in Afghanistan and discussed ways to revitalize mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries." It also mentioned that the Kyrgyz presidential press office quoted Bakiyev as stating that "his country gives importance and priority to developing Kyrgyz-American relations and activating bilateral cooperation." By adding the phrase "away from the spotlight" (i.e., secretly, away from Russian eyes), the Russian Interfax agency was hinting that something had occurred between the Kyrgyz president and the Americans.
The "Russia Today" website reported on March 17, 2010, that "the United States recently announced the allocation of 5.5 million dollars to assist Kyrgyzstan in building a training center for special counter-terrorism units in the city of Batken." When "Russia Today" asked Alexander Knyazev, director of the Bishkek branch of the Institute for CIS Countries, about this center, he said: "Washington may use this center to meet its needs in Central Asia. The slogan of fighting terrorism is merely a pretext to achieve American goals, as is the case in Iraq and Afghanistan." He added: "Washington seeks through these projects in Central Asia to counter Russian and Chinese competition in the region."
The Russians felt apprehensive about Holbrooke's visit to Kyrgyzstan, his meeting with Bakiyev away from the spotlight, and the resulting secret agreements between the two parties. This culminated in the establishment of an American center in Kyrgyzstan to train special forces and recruit agents under the pretext of the so-called "war on terror," all so that America could strengthen its influence in Kyrgyzstan and then launch into other regions from there.
The agreement to establish an American center for training special forces—or in other words, for producing American agents in Kyrgyzstan—sounded the alarm. It represented a crossing of red lines for Russia. Therefore, Russia rushed to carry out the coup to prevent Bakiyev from going further in his relationship with America. Russia's sense of "victory" in executing the coup and toppling Bakiyev was evident.
As for America, it was shocked. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley expressed his country's "deep concern over the disturbances taking place in Kyrgyzstan" and said: "We believe the government is still in power, and the United States has no information that the opposition has seized power" (World News, April 7, 2010). This indicates that America was worried about the change taking place, did not support the opposition, and stood with Bakiyev's government. America closed its base in Kyrgyzstan for three days and then reopened it after the head of the interim Kyrgyz government, Roza Otunbayeva, stated that the American base would not be touched and would remain as it is according to previous agreements.
Submitting to the reality, the United States implicitly recognized the new government by sending an envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake, to hold talks with the new government in Kyrgyzstan. This envoy announced the United States' satisfaction with the new authorities' promises to ensure the Manas American airbase remains untouched, describing those reports as "terrific." America currently wants to deal with the new reality, especially since it has guaranteed the survival of its Manas airbase, and it has become clear that it cannot do anything against this new reality at present, as Bakiyev fled to his village in the south, then resigned and left for Kazakhstan.
Thus, America found no alternative but to deal with the new reality, even if temporarily. It negotiated with Russia regarding the current situation in Kyrgyzstan; Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin met with the US Ambassador to Moscow, John Beyrle, on April 13, 2010, where they discussed the situation in Kyrgyzstan and appeared to have reached an agreement, as they both called for "the return of normal life in the country!" Despite all this, the conflict between Russia and America there will continue, and this will manifest in various actions, forms, and political, economic, and social disturbances.