Question: On Wednesday, September 29, 2021, a summit was held between Erdogan and Putin in Sochi, Russia. The Turkish President led a delegation that included the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Hakan Fidan, the Presidency's Communications Director, Fahrettin Altun, and Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, notably without any of his ministers! (It was striking that the three-hour meeting took place behind closed doors, and the two presidents did not hold a joint press conference at its conclusion, contrary to the protocols usually followed by the Kremlin in similar visits. Furthermore, the two presidents did not issue a final statement... Asharq Al-Awsat, 2021/09/30). What are the reasons for this visit? And what are its objectives?
Answer: To answer the questions above, we review the following matters:
By observing America's current interests, it is understood that it is focusing its efforts toward China and planning to withdraw from the Middle East to devote itself to China. It then delegates its agents in the region to perform the role it desires. This policy was on the threshold of the Trump administration—shortly before it—where a change in American policy occurred. As America was mobilizing its political and military forces around China, it resorted to making greater use of its subordinate states like Turkey. Part of that policy was the Trump administration giving Turkey a role in Syria, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and other regions. With this new role for Turkey, America practically removed itself from the deliberations of the Syrian crisis, placing it between Turkey and Russia. Turkish-Russian talks in Astana and Geneva came to the forefront, followed by the entry of the Turkish army into northern Syria.
This role then diminished at the beginning of the Biden era due to political considerations seen by the Democrats. The first phone call between US President Biden and Turkish President Erdogan on 2021/4/23 was late, occurring three months after Biden took office in Washington. During the call, they agreed to hold a session on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels on 2021/6/14. In a clear sign of the disagreements between them, the US President announced one day after their call that what he called the Armenian massacres in Turkey were considered genocide. Biden had informed Erdogan of his intention to announce this during their phone call. Turkey and Erdogan made a lot of noise, but all this noise remained within media rhetoric. When the closed meeting between them took place on the sidelines of the NATO summit on 2021/6/14 in Brussels, their agreement on Afghanistan emerged. Erdogan hailed this mission, stating: ("Erdogan indicated that he discussed the situation in Afghanistan with Biden. He said: 'We are ready; we cannot neglect the Taliban in Afghanistan. We are ready to deal with them if we get support from the United States as well as other countries... CNN Arabic, 2021/6/14). However, it seems that more important than that was the issue of withdrawal from Syria, especially the Turkish role in talks with Russia regarding the withdrawal.
The most complex withdrawal for America currently is Syria because the matter does not concern it alone; it involves Iran, Iran's party (Hezbollah), Turkey, and most importantly, Russia, which was brought into Syria at the instigation of America on 2015/9/29 during Obama’s meeting with Putin. All these matters require certain measures to ensure America achieves a full withdrawal of others, specifically Russia, before it withdraws its own forces. This is especially true since it has reassured the Kurds that it supports them and will not leave them as it did in Afghanistan. (The General Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, stated that US President Joe Biden promised that the United States would not abandon its Kurdish allies in Syria after its withdrawal from Afghanistan last month... Abdi told The Times from his headquarters near the city of Al-Hasakah: "They reassured us that this is not Afghanistan. They said the 'American' policy here is completely different." RT, 2021/9/28).
America does not want to withdraw while Russia remains, especially since Russia has begun to show restlessness regarding America's policy and its preoccupation with China, at a time when Russia is drawing closer to China in several instances. Therefore, it is likely that during the meeting between US President Biden and Russian President Putin in Geneva on 2021/6/16, America was pressing Russia to distance itself from China and move closer to the American position. While America was planning to withdraw from Syria and delegate its agents to manage affairs on its behalf—and although Russia's withdrawal is important for America before it finally pulls its forces out of Syria and delegates its agents to fill the vacuum while it focuses on China—it simultaneously does not want to treat Russia as an equal. Thus, it did not discuss the issue of withdrawal from Syria with Russia directly but instead tasked Erdogan to discuss this matter with them. This is because Russia is considered too insignificant for America to discuss the Syrian withdrawal project with it directly, especially after America became reassured that the relations of its agent Bashar had improved with the countries in the region following the talks to transport Egyptian gas through Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. It became possible for America to rely on him until it finds a suitable alternative. Thus, America tasked Erdogan to discuss Russia's withdrawal from Syria with Russia. (Erdogan stated that he would meet Putin on September 29 to discuss bilateral relations and the latest developments in the Syrian province of Idlib. He said in a press statement: "My meeting with Putin will be bilateral without a third person present, and it will not be limited to the situation in Idlib; rather, we will discuss the general situation in Syria, the steps we will take in this country, and bilateral relations as well." Erdogan pointed out that Turkey and Russia are pivotal countries in the region, noting that Putin is a statesman and showed that in resolving the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. Al Jazeera Net, 2021/9/28). Erdogan, accompanied by Hakan Fidan, head of the National Intelligence Organization, said before meeting President Putin in the Russian city of Sochi: "Peace in Syria is linked to the relations between Turkey and Russia, and the steps taken by the two countries together are of great importance." Anadolu Agency, 2021/9/29).
Russia realized this and considered it an insult that Erdogan should discuss the issue of withdrawal from Syria with them instead of America discussing it directly, especially since it was America that brought Russia into Syria. How can it now not discuss the withdrawal directly but instead delegate Erdogan? Consequently, Russia considered this an insult, especially as Putin is stretching his neck to emulate America as a major influential global power! Therefore, Russia took a stance toward Erdogan to serve as a lesson for Turkey and, at the same time, a message to America, hoping it would return to agree on discussing this issue—the withdrawal—with it directly. This was done through:
a. (Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored the arrival of his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to his country on Wednesday. Instead of receiving him at the airport, he sent the Mayor of Sochi, Alexey Kopaygorodsky, and the Deputy Governor of the Krasnodar Territory, Alexander Ruppel. Erdogan was received at the Sochi airport by the Director-General of State Protocol at the Russian Foreign Ministry, Igor Bogdashev, the Turkish Ambassador to Moscow, Mehmet Samsar, the Consul General of Novorossiysk, Firat Bayar, and Turkish Embassy staff... Turkey Now, 2021/09/29).
b. Putin also instructed the newspaper Pravda to hurl insults at Erdogan, describing him as a "poor guy"! It is well known that Pravda is a Russian newspaper that was one of the world's largest in circulation during the Soviet era, and it is now one of the leading newspapers close to the Kremlin: (The Russian newspaper Pravda, close to the Kremlin, insulted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, describing him as a "poor guy" in an article containing sharp phrases before his visit to Sochi. In an article published in Pravda, Russian journalist Alexander Shtroum said, "The poor guy has no chance of being re-elected"... Turkey Now, 2021/09/29).
Accordingly, the meeting between Putin and Erdogan carried its failure from beginning to end, even before it started! It seems Erdogan expected this, which is why he insisted that the meeting attendance be very restricted—just between him and Putin—so that the circle of those aware of the failure would not expand. And that is exactly what happened. Thus, no positive result was achieved from that meeting, and he returned empty-handed. Even the protocol press conference usually held after every meeting was not conducted! (The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan concluded today, Wednesday, in the Russian city of Sochi without holding a press conference. After a three-hour meeting, the two sides did not disclose any results or understandings, except for diplomatic statements without any information on the content of the meeting... For his part, political analyst Darwish Khalifa, speaking to the Al-Araby Al-Jadeed website, considered that the failure to announce any outcomes from the meeting indicates a lack of agreement between the two parties and differences, and to maintain this, no press conference was held. Khalifa added that the Syrian file was the basis of the meeting, not what some promote regarding Ukraine or Libya... Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 2021/09/30).
As for Erdogan's scheduled meeting with Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit at the end of October, (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold a bilateral meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden during the G20 leaders' summit scheduled for next October... Sources added that Erdogan will meet his American counterpart Biden on the sidelines of the summit. Anadolu Agency, 2021/9/28), it seems to be regarding the next step after the failure of Erdogan's meeting with Putin!
It is expected that if America can dominate Russia's position toward China—meaning it makes Russia move closer to it against China—then America will not give any consideration to Erdogan but will leave him surrounded by his failure alone! It may return to an agreement with Russia if it ensures that Russia will distance itself from China. These colonial states do not care about respecting their agents or those revolving in their orbit if they see that it achieves an interest for them!
In summary, the matter can be included in the following points:
a. America is making preparations to withdraw from the Middle East and delegate matters to its agents and those in its orbit, and to devote itself to China. Even if it is not a hot conflict but a cold war, as the spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, accused America of, commenting on the alliance between America, Britain, and Australia by saying: "These countries should not form exclusionary blocs targeting the interests of other parties or harming them. The most important thing they should do is get rid of the Cold War mentality and ideological bias... Al Jazeera Net, 2021/09/16).
b. The Ottoman State, which used to severely provoke Russia, no longer exists. Thus, Russia and the enemies have breathed a sigh of relief. The rulers of Turkey are now, from Russia's perspective, too weak to be given any significance; it does not care to give them weight in either arrival or departure!
c. There is a positive point in all that has happened, which is that the disbelieving colonial states are almost packing their bags to leave the Muslim lands. This is a suitable opportunity for the dawah carriers and everyone who wants to follow the truth to rejoice in the proximity of the elevation of Islam and its people, and the degradation of disbelief and its people:
إِنَّ فِي ذَلِكَ لَذِكْرَى لِمَنْ كَانَ لَهُ قَلْبٌ أَوْ أَلْقَى السَّمْعَ وَهُوَ شَهِيدٌ
"Indeed in that is a reminder for whoever has a heart or who listens while he is present [in mind]." (Surah Qaf [50]: 37)
29 Safar 1443 AH 2021/10/06 CE