Question:
There are interesting events occurring in Yemen and Saudi Arabia; the Houthis have seized control of Sana'a, and the government, followed by the President of the Republic, resigned on the evening of 22/01/2015... Subsequently, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia passed away on the morning of Friday, 23/01/2015, and was succeeded by King Salman bin Abdulaziz. My question is two-fold:
First: Are the events in Yemen still proceeding according to what the Party issued on 01/10/2014? What is the expected solution?
Second: Does Salman bin Abdulaziz’s assumption of power after King Abdullah change Saudi policy, or will things remain as they are?
Apologies for asking two questions instead of one, and may Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
First: The Events in Yemen:
Regarding the events in Yemen, anyone who contemplates what is happening will find it exactly as stated in our previous answer dated 01/10/2014... America is acting in Yemen with its well-known arrogance—that is, through armed force and oppression. The Houthis have occupied Sana'a and other areas, arresting and killing under the pretext of the "popular revolution and popular committees..." Meanwhile, the British are working in Yemen through political cunning on two tracks: The first is Hadi's exploitation of his powers as President through a calculated maneuver. Whenever the Houthis surrounded him, he would promise them agreements and then procrastinate in their implementation... He continued this until his actions became exposed to the Houthis. When they surrounded him from all sides and insisted on implementing all agreements, he surprised them with his resignation! This shook them again just as they were about to settle... this pertains to the first track.
As for the second track, it is through the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. They made him impose his presence on the Houthis; he joined them and became their friend after having been their enemy. He assisted them with his forces until it became difficult for them to break away from him. This second track is intended so that if President Hadi’s maneuvers in obstructing the Houthis fail and they come close to power, Ali Abdullah Saleh and his group would share power with the Houthis. Thus, the British would have a share and America would have a share...
This is what is happening in Yemen. Britain is no longer able to dominate Yemen as it did previously, and at the same time, it cannot militarily confront America and its agents. Therefore, it resorted to political cunning through its two agents, Hadi and Ali Saleh, who have perfected their roles:
Hadi proceeded with his maneuvers and procrastination to their limit and then resigned. Protests spread across the country, leaving the Houthis in a predicament. After they had wanted to achieve their dominance through presidential decrees to gain legitimacy without being labeled as coup plotters, they are now described as such. They are struggling to manage a hot, tense situation, especially in the capital Sana'a, in addition to the vacancy of the presidency...
As for Ali Saleh, his interference with the Houthis has become clear to everyone. Britain, its agents, and its channels contributed to highlighting leaks of Ali Saleh with the Houthis to embarrass them before the people. The people revolted against Saleh for his evils, and now he and the Houthis are in the same boat, making it difficult for the Houthis to distance themselves from him! Anyone following these channels, especially Al-Jazeera, can see this. In their interviews, they focused on the fact that the Houthis claim to be at war with the corrupt while they are dealing with Saleh, the head of the corrupt. Then they publish leaks, supported by their followers, showing the relationship between the Houthis and Saleh... On 21/01/2015, Al-Jazeera broadcasted an audio recording between Saleh and the Houthi leader Abdul Wahid Abu Ras, which it claimed to have obtained! The recording, dating back to late last October after Sana'a fell to the Houthis in late September, showed coordination between Saleh and the Houthis. In some of its interviews, Al-Jazeera questioned the Houthis' statements that they are against corruption while they allied with the head of corruption, Ali Saleh!
Regarding what is expected, it is difficult for either party to settle the matter in its favor so that it becomes the sole dominant power in Yemen. Rather, the most likely outcome is a compromise solution according to the Capitalist method, which does not end the crisis but serves as a "warrior's rest" until one of the two parties can settle the matter in its favor... Nothing ends the crisis with justice and benevolence except the Khilafah, through which Islam and Muslims are honored and Kufr and the Kuffar are humiliated, and that is not difficult for Allah.
This is what is happening in Yemen in brief, and this is what we mentioned in our political opinion within the answer to the question dated 01/10/2014. I will quote some of it for you to see the correctness of our opinion issued more than three months ago:
("Britain realized that America is serious about using force to achieve significant gains in the governance of Yemen, and that the Houthis have an influential force of weapons and equipment supplied via Iran... Britain's realization of this matter made it move to resist this on two tracks: First: That Hadi exerts every effort in exploiting his position as President to prevent the Houthis from gaining effective power. The second track is introducing Ali Saleh as a partner to the Houthis as if he opposes Hadi's rule; some of his supporters joined the Houthis while carrying the banner of the General People's Congress 'the party of the former Yemeni president.' When the British Ambassador was asked whether she communicates with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, she said: 'I do not have a direct relationship with Ali Abdullah Saleh, but I have communication with the General People's Congress party, including parties close to him.' (Asharq Al-Awsat, 27/09/2014). From this, it is understood that Britain is the one who suggested to its agent Ali Saleh to also cooperate with the Houthis, as the British Ambassador admitted her communication with Ali Saleh's party, which he manages and controls without any competitor or opponent... These measures by Britain to thrust Ali Saleh with the Houthis are so that if Hadi is unable to exploit his position as President to prevent America and its followers from actually reaching power, Ali Saleh would be an active partner with the Houthis, and thus British influence remains in Yemen, especially since the Houthis have no popular support that would make them the sole rulers of Yemen...") End quote.
Then we concluded the answer, which describes the precursors of what is happening, its results, and the correct solution, by saying:
("- This means that the expected solution in Yemen is a compromise solution between America and Britain in the Capitalist way, where governance is shared between the parties... A compromise solution usually does not last with them except as a warrior's rest until America or Britain can settle the matter to its side. This means the events in Yemen will continue to fluctuate, calming down at times and intensifying at others according to the balance of political and military power among the combatants.
d- Based on the above, it can be concluded that matters in Yemen are escalating without stabilizing decisively except in two cases: First: That America or Britain manages to settle matters in its favor and thus dominates actual influence in Yemen—and this is not easy, as we explained earlier. Second: That Allah honors this Ummah with the Khilafah, which will trample the influence of the colonial Kuffar, uproot them from the country, and end their evils among the servants. Thus, Kufr and its people will be humiliated, while Islam and its people will be honored, and the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah:
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Surah Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
...It is fitting for the people of Yemen, the people of faith and wisdom, to establish this matter and succeed in both worlds, and Allah protects the righteous.") End quote.
Thus, the course of events is still as we explained in our previous analysis dated 01/10/2014.
Second: The Events in Saudi Arabia:
As for what has happened and is happening in Saudi Arabia, in order to understand what occurred—whether it follows the same previous line that Abdullah was on in his relations with Britain and America, or whether it has changed; and what is the political status of the new King Salman—I say that to understand what happened, the following matters must be mentioned:
Within the Saudi family, American and British influences overlap among its princes. Based on the strength of the followers of both sides, the actual influence in the governance of Saudi Arabia is determined, and consequently, the character of Saudi-British or Saudi-American relations is formed.
By tracking these relations, it becomes clear that American influence is dominant in the Ministry of Defense, at least since 1382 AH when the minister was Sultan bin Abdulaziz, who was known as one of America's men. This political situation in the ministry continued during Salman bin Abdulaziz’s tenure at the Ministry of Defense on 09/12/1432 AH. He was then succeeded by his son, Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, starting from 03/04/1436 AH when Salman bin Abdulaziz became the King of Saudi Arabia.
Likewise, British influence is dominant in the Ministry of the National Guard, at least since 1382 AH when the head of the National Guard then was the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, and it continued until 1431 AH. He was then succeeded by his son, Mutaib bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, from 1431 AH until 1434 AH when the National Guard institution became a ministry, and Mutaib has continued as the Minister of the National Guard until now.
According to the family arrangements for who becomes king, these arrangements do not necessarily mean the king always comes from a specific institution. The King or the Crown Prince might come from the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard, or elsewhere... However, it has become known in recent decades that the influential figure in governance is the one who comes from these two institutions; if they come from elsewhere, they are less influential...
The late King Abdullah was from the National Guard institution, and therefore British influence was dominant in Saudi Arabia, along with methods of placating America. Relations with America would sometimes become tense and ease at other times, but the general policy had a British character while avoiding heating up the confrontation toward America; rather, as we said, using methods of appeasement in the British way where they show the opposite of what they conceal...
As for the current King, he is from the Ministry of Defense institution, and therefore it is expected that American influence will be dominant during his era. King Abdullah realized this, and for this reason, he introduced a new tradition in Saudi Arabia, which is for the King to appoint not only his Crown Prince but also a Deputy Crown Prince. He realized that Salman bin Abdulaziz follows America, and so that Salman would not appoint a Crown Prince from America's men as was the previous custom where the King appoints his own Crown Prince, King Abdullah pre-emptively appointed the Deputy Crown Prince. He appointed Muqrin as the Deputy Crown Prince for Salman bin Abdulaziz for the purpose we mentioned earlier.
Muqrin is known for his relations with the British, as he studied there and graduated from there (from the famous Cranwell school in Britain). He was a person of trust for the late King Abdullah, even one of those close to him. The late King’s innovation of appointing a Deputy Crown Prince was to block the continuation of the American chain after Salman bin Abdulaziz. King Abdullah confirmed this appointment by issuing a decree prohibiting the removal of the Deputy Crown Prince!
Based on the above, the political reality now is as follows:
a- The new King is close to America, while his Crown Prince is close to the British.
b- This means that the dominant influence will be for America, with British influence contesting it to some extent.
c- This will result in a decrease in tension between America and Saudi Arabia. This may affect the limitation of the continued decline in oil prices, because the previous King and the British behind him wanted, by lowering oil prices, to cause America to fail in benefiting from shale oil. This is because the cost of shale oil is relatively high, around $70 per barrel, so if the oil price is low, the production of shale oil becomes costly and unfeasible, whereas the cost of natural oil is a few dollars (around $7 per barrel)—and we detailed this matter in our previous answer dated 07/01/2015.
- In conclusion, it pains the soul that colonialist states hostile to Islam and Muslims have influence in the lands that house the Qibla of the Muslims and the site of the revelation to the Messenger of Allah, peace and blessings be upon him... and the land of Hijrah, the seat of the first Islamic State! But Islam has men who join their nights with their days, working with sincerity and devotion, by Allah’s permission, to restore the State of Islam, the Righteous Khilafah. Indeed, it shall come to pass by the permission of the Almighty, the All-Powerful, and on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah, and the colonialist Kuffar will retreat to their own homelands, if any homelands remain for them...