Question:
US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Alaska on 16/08/2025. Was an agreement reached between them on fundamental issues? What is the impact of this meeting on the relationship between the two countries and on Ukraine? Furthermore, what is its international impact on Europe and China?
Answer:
To clarify the answer to the above questions, we review the following matters:
The relationship between America and Russia has evolved over the past three decades. It shifted from a relationship between two superpowers controlling the world's fate before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, to Russia's withdrawal from the international arena and its withdrawal into itself while America monitored the depth of the Russian collapse and attempted to take over its former Soviet spheres of influence. Subsequently, Russian President Putin attempted to restore Russia as a major power with international standing, which America rejected. In a sign of the deep conflict between the goals of the two countries, the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, through which Russia wanted to raise its international status by force, while America, through its support for Ukraine, wanted to strike Russia off the list of superpowers. This remained the case until the end of the Biden administration. When Trump returned as President of the United States, he began reorienting the American compass against China and announced that he wanted to ease tensions with Russia. He claimed he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and that this war was not his, but Biden's war. Thus, under Trump, America began to shift its relations with Russia. This shift became clearly evident through the repeated insults President Trump directed at Ukrainian President Zelensky, his sharp criticism of US military support for Ukraine, and his demand that European countries bear their financial and military responsibilities in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian war achieved a weakening of Russia's international standing. Its army appeared unable to achieve rapid, high-value objectives in Ukraine; nearly half of its naval fleet in the Black Sea was destroyed, and its strategic bases deep within Russia were hit. It lost significant elements of its ground forces, including equipment and generals. However, it was not defeated and remained capable of making progress inside Ukraine, even if described as a "snail's pace." But Russia, finding itself facing NATO's military capabilities as if it were in a war with NATO countries, began to show distress. Nuclear statements and preparations occasionally surfaced, which is extremely dangerous and something America does not want. This means the Ukrainian war demonstrated the risks of transitioning to nuclear war. The war in Ukraine pushed Russian President Putin to strengthen his strategic partnership with China. Although this direction was expected by America—and despite China not reciprocating Russia's enthusiasm to avoid losing its primary trade relations with America and Europe—the re-division of the world into something resembling two camps is the last thing America wants. It absolutely does not want China's economic power to integrate with Russia's military power into a single camp.
Russia's fear of the strategic defeat planned by America in the Ukrainian arena prompted it to increase its missile and nuclear armament. Nuclear agreements with America are at a minimum level after America's withdrawal in 2019 from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. In addition to Russia's introduction of hypersonic missile systems in its war in Ukraine, it also introduced the highly destructive "Oreshnik" missile in 2024. Finally, just before Putin's meeting with Trump, Russia announced tests—of which America was aware—of nuclear missiles with nuclear engines, meaning infinite range and speed. Aside from the danger this poses to America and its nullification of the missile shield America boasted about and spent billions on, it confirms to America that Russia is proceeding with a new strategic military race regardless of the cost to its economy. This requires America to reach an agreement with Russia to halt its progress and avoid a military race similar to the Cold War era.
Russia stood before a possible military defeat in Ukraine, as the image of its army as a superpower military was shattered by its inability to defeat the Ukrainian army. The war became a matter of "tug and pull," meaning Russia lost the advantage of decisive force, which damaged its international standing. In addition to its apparent military weakness in Ukraine, it fell under a deep package of Western sanctions that almost placed it on the verge of exiting the global economy and imposed significant international isolation. The Russian president was not even able to move freely outside the country due to arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court. Consequently, Russia pushed all its economic and military energy to ward off the specter of strategic defeat in the Ukrainian war, and its economy became a war economy. It saw that its international standing was determined by the war in Ukraine, but the specter of defeat never left it. Its greatest fear was that things would develop toward NATO intervention and a direct confrontation, which it is incapable of unless it employs its nuclear tools—but employing these tools is extremely dangerous. When US President Trump arrived and began flirting with Russia and praising its president, it breathed a sigh of relief. This represented an American shift away from plans for Russia's strategic defeat. Russia might have considered accepting Trump's offers as they were to limit its exhaustion, but it is monitoring the door Trump opened for its return to the international arena, standing on edge for fear it might close, while wanting to enter it.
When America saw Russia's hesitation and refusal to stop the war, and voices rose in the West claiming that Putin was merely exploiting Trump's recent trend and his desire to stop the war in Ukraine, the US President announced a 50-day deadline for Russia to stop the war. Despite Russia's extreme annoyance at this deadline and its request for clarifications, it continued to stall within this period, wanting to exploit it to the end. This prompted the US President to threaten a reverse shift—closing the door and returning to the positions of the Biden administration. He announced the shortening of this period to only 10 days. Russia, through the Deputy National Security Advisor and former President Medvedev, viewed this as a step toward war. Medvedev reminded America of Russia's "deadly nuclear hand." The US President exchanged barbs with him, telling him to be careful as he was entering an extremely dangerous zone. With this American threat of a reverse shift and a return to supporting Ukraine and imposing harsher sanctions on Russia—including anyone who buys oil from it, specifically China—the clock struck in Moscow that a decision must be made.
Thus, Russia saw that it must hasten toward making concessions to America. It does not want the momentum of American support for Ukraine to return, which would impose more exhaustion on it and cause it to lose the opportunity President Trump offered to break its international isolation. Furthermore, Russia has doubts regarding China; if China were to choose between benefiting from cheap Russian oil and its trade relations with America, it would certainly choose the latter due to its greater benefits. Moreover, Trump's peace offer provides Russia with what it desires—an agreement with America alone, similar to the Yalta Conference in 1945. It does not want to involve other European or Ukrainian parties; rather, it wants an agreement with America that is then presented to other parties as a fait accompli. Thus, Russia took the initiative to request a meeting with the US President's envoy (Witkoff) to kill the idea of the deadline granted to Russia. This certainly required it to waive some of its demands. On the threshold of approving the summit between the two presidents and during the short preparation period, both sides showed signs of their desire for this meeting. Indeed, Trump responded to Russia's request to send his special envoy Witkoff to Moscow. Trump spoke about opportunities and the exchange of land and borders between Russia and Ukraine. Russia spoke about America's sincerity: (Putin said that Moscow is working to create conditions for peace and that the United States is making sincere efforts to settle the situation regarding Ukraine. Putin stressed the importance of reaching agreements with Washington regarding the reduction of strategic offensive weapons. Al-Jazeera Net, 14/08/2025). Russia agreed to have the summit in Alaska, i.e., in America, to please Trump: (Trump believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to travel to Alaska to hold a meeting with him is an "act that carries a lot of respect." RT, 12/08/2025).
But from another angle, America, having seen Russia's hesitation for months after Trump arrived at the White House, did not want this summit to be without concessions from Russia. Trump said this summit is "exploratory" and that he would know from the first minutes of the summit whether Putin is serious about ending the war in Ukraine or not. He warned of the summit's failure and set a 25% probability for its failure, threatening Russia with dire consequences: (US President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin with "dire consequences" if he obstructed peace efforts in Ukraine, hinting at the possibility of imposing economic sanctions if their meeting scheduled for Friday in Alaska fails to achieve concrete results. Trump explained that the meeting with Putin would be "preparatory" for a second meeting involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, noting that its occurrence depends on what the Alaska meeting results in. Arab 48, 14/08/2025). Then US President Donald Trump described his summit with Vladimir Putin as "high-stakes" before heading to Anchorage, Alaska, for their first meeting in seven years. Trump expressed his desire to see a ceasefire "very, very quickly." (Independent Arabia, 15/08/2025). Trump said he would hasten to return from Alaska to Washington if Putin was not serious (US President Donald Trump arrived at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. Trump said that if the summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin went poorly, he would leave. CNN Arabic, 15/08/2025). This statement about leaving the meeting carries a kind of insult to President Putin, who came to meet Trump in America!
All these statements carry pressure on Russia to provide concessions. He threatens it with dire consequences, sanctions, and leaving the meeting, meaning the meeting between them was not equal as the important meetings between Soviet and American leaders were in the past. It is not a meeting of two giants, nor does it even reach the level of US-Chinese summit meetings. It reinforces America's arrogance and its demand for Russia to submit, as well as the decline of Russia's new status, which accepted all these conditions, deadlines, and American threats. Its president traveled to America to hold the meeting with Trump instead of it being in a third country. Perhaps the procedure contrary to protocol—when Russian President Putin accepted the US President's offer to ride with him in his private car despite the presence of Putin's car that accompanies him in all his international meetings—is evidence of Russia's submission and its need for the warmth of the relationship with Trump to reduce its strategic losses. What confirms this is that despite the state of massive rupture in US-Russian relations imposed by the Biden administration, the Russian president was keen to entice Trump. Yuri Ushakov, assistant to the Russian President, said: (Cooperation between Russia and the United States has enormous potential that has not yet been exploited. He noted that the Russian delegation would include Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev. RT, 14/08/2025). This is an indicator of weakness for Russia that America must have picked up. Perhaps in the statements of Russian President Putin after the meeting, there is what indicates that weakness and the depth of Russian concern about continued tension in relations between the two countries: The Russian President began his speech at the press conference by acknowledging the deterioration of US-Russian relations in recent years. He said: ("It is known that no summits have been held between Russia and the United States for four years, which is a long time. This period was very difficult for bilateral relations. Let's be honest, they reached their lowest level since the Cold War. I believe this does not benefit our countries or the whole world." He added: "The holding of a personal meeting between the presidents of the two countries is long overdue." Putin said: "The negotiations were held in an atmosphere of constructive respect and mutual respect and were comprehensive and very useful." CNN Arabic, 16/08/2025).
In conclusion, by closely examining and reflecting on the course of the meeting between Trump and Putin and what was reported by the media, it can be said that what their meeting covered are the following matters:
a- Ukraine: This is the most prominent topic, although not the only one, but it is the most famous and heated. Despite the rigidity of Russian security demands represented by keeping Ukraine out of NATO and not allowing it to possess a strong army that threatens Russia, a clear agreement has had its broad outlines drawn by the summit. This was represented in one of its aspects by Russia's future pledge not to commit aggression against Ukraine: (Putin stressed that he agrees with the need to ensure Ukraine's security, saying: "I agree with (US President Donald) Trump on the need to ensure Ukraine's security, and we are, of course, ready to work on that." He added: "I hope that the agreement we reached together will contribute to achieving this goal and pave the way toward peace in Ukraine." CNN Arabic, 16/08/2025). What also confirms the existence of an agreement is that the US President gave his meeting with Putin a score of 10 out of 10 (Sky News, 16/08/2025). America is cooling down the Ukrainian battlefield in preparation for stopping it, which requires an American pledge to gradually slow down American and Western military support for the Ukrainian army, then announcing a ceasefire, which might be through a subsequent summit bringing together the two presidents with Ukrainian President Zelensky within weeks. Then, moving forward with the solution in Ukraine on a low heat, perhaps over several years. This means America is postponing the final solution and wants speed in the ceasefire, and that the final solution should take many years, during which America compels Ukraine to concede land and borders to the extent of Russian concessions to America in other files. It is as if it is making Russia's mouth water by recognizing the borders of Russian control in Ukraine under conditions that Russia must meet and that satisfy America.
b- Normalization of US-Russian Relations: Although this process began with the Istanbul meeting in April 2025, it is expected to gain momentum. It is likely that this momentum will be apparent after the second meeting between the two countries, which Ukraine could join for the purpose of announcing a ceasefire. Normalizing relations is considered an urgent necessity for America to open negotiations on other strategic files.
c- Arms Race and Strategic Power: It is highly likely, given the need of both parties, that negotiations on armament and strategic nuclear and missile power will open urgently. It is likely that Russia today agrees to America's previous condition that China joins these negotiations, making them tripartite. This is because Russian-American agreements before this were a continuation of agreements between two military giants for decades, which America cut off because it wanted to include the Chinese giant. Especially since China today is implementing nuclear armament programs that would put it in the ranks of the two giants soon; its nuclear program leads to it possessing about a thousand nuclear warheads by the year 2030, meaning it has surpassed for years medium nuclear powers like Britain and France. Therefore, it is likely that all reasons for Russia's embarrassment in inviting China to participate in Russian-American negotiations regarding strategic weapons have vanished. This represents a step for America on its path to dismantling the Russian-Chinese alliance. For all these reasons, it is likely that America's hope of dismantling Russia's alliance with China is great, but without approaching it directly to avoid wounding Russia's feelings; rather, through steps of rapprochement with Russia to gradually weaken the Chinese-Russian alliance.
Finally, it is painful that the states of kufr (disbelief) control the world, with their presidents meeting, discussing, and planning... while the Islamic Ummah, the best Ummah brought forth for mankind, remains a body with no impact on international events. Even independent control over its own issues is not within its power; rather, they are managed by the hands of the musta'mirin (colonialist) disbelievers!!
The problem is that this Ummah, which numbers nearly two billion, is a body without a head. The Khilafah (Caliphate) that unites it is not established, and the Khalifah (Caliph) who looks after its affairs, and behind whom the people fight and are protected, does not exist! Nevertheless, the Khilafah is returning by the permission of Allah, by the promise of Allah the Almighty and the glad tidings of His Messenger ﷺ. However, the Sunnah (way) of Allah dictates that angels will not descend from the sky to establish the Khilafah for us while the Ummah is sitting and not working for its establishment; rather, Allah sends the angels to help us while we are working. Hizb ut-Tahrir, the leader that does not lie to its people, calls the Ummah to work with it to establish it. At that time, Islam and the Muslims will be honored, and kufr and the disbelievers will be humiliated.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Quran Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
25th of Safar al-Khair, 1447 AH 19/08/2025 CE