Question:
On June 1, 2012, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced at a security conference in Singapore: "The United States will maintain six aircraft carriers in the Asia-Pacific region and will shift 60% of its warships to the region in the coming years until 2020. He explained that the relocation of the US fleets comes in the context of implementing a new US strategy aimed at raising the level of the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region." What is the reason for America moving most of its naval warships to the Asia-Pacific region? Has America begun to take China into serious account at the current time or in the coming years? And when might China move to impose its control over that region?
Answer:
To answer this, we mention the following:
The Asia-Pacific region includes countries of great importance:
- Such as Japan, China, Taiwan, and North and South Korea. Among these countries, there is a dispute over the issue of sovereignty over the East China Sea, a dispute over some islands in it, and the freedom of navigation and fishing.
- Such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Among these countries, there is a dispute over the issue of sovereignty over the South China Sea and a dispute over some islands in it, in addition to the Strait of Malacca and the freedom of navigation and fishing.
- Furthermore, the region is considered an extension of the Indian Ocean, on whose northern shores lie Burma, Bangladesh, and India, reaching as far as Pakistan, which is closer to the Arabian Sea—an extension of the Indian Ocean. From there comes the Gulf of Oman, leading to the Gulf region and southwards to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb, reaching the Red Sea, which leads to the Mediterranean.
- Additionally, the Asia-Pacific region, along with the northern coasts of the Indian Ocean, contains the largest population density in the world and the largest population density of Muslims; in this region resides approximately half of the world's population and half the number of Muslims.
Maritime routes are considered more important than land routes because a larger quantity can be carried by ships, costs are lower, and ships sail easily away from the border barriers of states, except when passing through straits or sea lanes under the supervision of the countries overlooking them. To this day, 90% of goods are still transported via sea routes by ships, despite developments in land routes and the manufacturing of huge trucks, as well as developments in air transport—which remains expensive and cannot carry quantities equivalent to what ships carry. Furthermore, 65% of oil is transported across seas by ships despite the development of pipelines. Therefore, the Pacific Ocean is of great importance as it extends to the Indian Ocean, through which 70% of oil and gas supplies pass from the Gulf region to those countries. The need of this region, especially China and India, for oil will double in the next decade. There is also the Strait of Malacca, which is considered an important passage between the two oceans, extending for a distance of 800 km between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. About 40% of global goods pass through it, as well as half of the global oil and gas trade. It is important for China and India for the passage of goods east and west. Thus, this region is of paramount importance in terms of the existence of maritime routes...
Moreover, this region is important from a strategic perspective. China is working to establish dominance or control over this region because it considers it its region historically and geographically, in addition to its strategic and economic importance to it. China is a major regional power and is working to be influential in this region, but it has not been able to impose its control over it. US control and hegemony remain the largest and most influential. America was interested in this region during the Cold War era due to the threat posed to it by the Soviet Union at that time, as Russia has maritime borders in the North Pacific. During that period, America had more than 600 warships. When the Cold War ended with the fall of Communism, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the disappearance of its threat, America reduced the number of its warships by more than half, reaching 279, and the number stabilized in 2008 at 285 warships. It settled for this number as it no longer had a competitor or a threat to its presence in this region. In addition, America has a permanent military presence in military bases in Japan and South Korea, located on the shores of the East China Sea, and it has the same in the Philippines, located on the shores of the South China Sea. It has about a quarter of a million soldiers in the region... It has had a permanent military presence in the region since the fifties of the last century.
In light of the shaking of America's global position following the defeats it suffered in Iraq and Afghanistan at the hands of the Muslims, and following the financial crisis that exploded in 2008, China began to evaluate the situation and work to exploit it to increase its strength in order to impose its influence in its region if America were to collapse completely or suffer a shock stronger than what happened, such that it could not maintain its influence in that region or if the Muslims expelled it from the region. Although America realizes that China is not a global major power and is not working to displace it from its position as the leading nation in the world, it is a regional major power—meaning in the Asia-Pacific region, which China considers its own region and which is economically and strategically important to it. Thus, China is working to be sovereign in the East China Sea, and if it succeeds in this, it will bring Japan and South Korea under its mercy or dominance, in addition to North Korea, which it influences. China is also working to have sovereignty over the South China Sea, thereby bringing the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia under its influence or dominance, and subsequently controlling the Strait of Malacca, which is considered a lifeline for it. If China controls this region or imposes its influence or brings it under its dominance, it could influence the Indian Ocean region and seriously threaten American influence in the region. This is a vital issue (qadiyya masiriyya) for America; it will never allow this to happen, regardless of the exorbitant costs.
America places importance on protecting its territory from both sides—the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans that surround it. Since there is currently no significant threat to America in the Atlantic because European countries are not currently undertaking any serious action to compete with America in the Atlantic or beyond the Atlantic to the west, i.e., in South America, and America does not expect actual serious competition from Europe in the Atlantic or beyond in the foreseeable future, America is currently prioritizing other areas: the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and their associated bodies—the Arabian Sea, the Gulf, and the Bab el-Mandeb. For this reason, it has reduced its power in the Atlantic in favor of its power in the Pacific, as Panetta mentioned in detail that 60% of the naval force will be in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020, including six aircraft carriers and most of the cruisers, destroyers, combat ships, and US submarines. He referred to the disputes between the countries of the region and China, saying: "The position of the United States is clear: we call for restraint and a diplomatic solution, we oppose provocation, coercion, and the use of force." He claimed that "his country does not take sides with one party against another" (United Press International, 2/6/2012). This agency also noted that: "US President Barack Obama said in November; that the Asia-Pacific region is a top priority for the United States." The agency mentioned that "the American focus on the region comes in light of the rise of China and India as global economic powers and after the US withdrawal from Iraq and the nearing withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan." Furthermore, America's increase of military naval presence in the Asia-Pacific region enables it to increase the volume of exercises and maneuvers it conducts there in the coming years. America also plans to increase US naval visits to wider areas of the Pacific to include the Indian Ocean. It is mentioned that "the US armed forces participated during the past year in 172 training operations and war maneuvers (in this region) involving 24 countries." (BBC, 2/6/2012)
The US military strategy in the Asia-Pacific region announced by the US Secretary of Defense came within the new US military strategy announced by US President Obama on 6/1/2012, which focused on three main pillars; first: reducing the number of US forces in Europe; second: reducing defense spending while maintaining qualitative superiority; and third: focusing on the Pacific region to avoid the growth of China's power while giving importance to the Middle East and Asia. Since there is no danger or threat to America in Europe, there is no need for large numbers of US soldiers there within the military spending reduction plan, as America is still moaning under the weight of the financial crisis and has not been able to emerge from it. Thus, it adopted a plan to reduce military spending over the next ten years by $1.2 trillion and increase its forces in the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, the increase of US naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region is primarily directed toward China and its expected threat to US influence in the region.
However, there is another matter suggested by the movements of the US naval forces and the spread of its bases in the Pacific, passing through the Strait of Malacca to the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf, and the Red Sea... i.e., not limited to the coasts and seas of China... This matter is what America takes into account regarding the expected emergence of an Islamic power in the region, the "Khilafah State," making America account for the existing power of China and the expected power of the Islamic State... This is why it extends its bases and movements along the coasts of the Islamic region... It considers the possibilities of upcoming changes in the coming years and in the next decade, namely the emergence of an Islamic superpower in the Muslim world, especially since half the number of Muslims is in the Asia-Pacific region and the North Indian Ocean. This is an extension of the Muslim regions in the Gulf, the Middle East, and Africa; rather, it is a great strategic depth for the Islamic State when it is established, by Allah's permission. It is worth mentioning that the Islamic State, since its early ages, began working to reach that region to spread goodness throughout its parts, until it became a semi-Islamic region. This continued until the Western colonialists arrived and began sowing seeds of evil there to enable them to colonize and control it for three centuries, to break the back of the Muslims from the East, while they were simultaneously waging colonial wars and conspiracies against the Muslims in the West to finish off their state, the Khilafah State, and its Islamic system. They achieved all of that... and they fear its return anew... and it is returning by Allah's permission, and indeed, tomorrow is near for the one who awaits it.