Question:
It has been observed since Obama took over the new US administration that statements from some US officials, as well as from Karzai, indicate a tension in the relationship between Karzai and America. Added to this are Karzai’s leanings toward Russia and China in some statements, positions, and the field of armaments—attempting to benefit from Afghanistan’s status as an observer member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Is the relationship truly tense, meaning that America no longer wants Karzai to continue, whether by preventing his candidacy, defeating him in the upcoming presidential elections this year, or even by killing him? Or are these statements and positions agreed upon with America to improve his image before the people so they re-elect him? Furthermore, can America find an agent like him? And if so, who is he?
Answer:
- To begin with, it must be remembered that the Democratic Party's policy toward Afghanistan was radically different from the previous Bush administration’s policy. Even before Obama came to power, Joseph Biden, the current US Vice President, was the most prominent figure in the Democratic Party interested in Afghanistan and critical of the Bush administration's policy there.
The American New York Times reported on a visit by Joseph Biden and two other members of the US Congress to Afghanistan in February of last year, during which they "interrogated" Karzai regarding rampant corruption in his government during an official luncheon. Karzai denied the existence of any corruption to his visitors, to which Biden replied angrily: "The lunch is over!" and left before the scheduled end of the visit.
The same newspaper stated on 8/2/2009: "Conditions have changed for Karzai and for Afghanistan, as Karzai now sees himself as unwanted by both Washington and his people." The paper added: "Obama described Karzai as untrustworthy," and quoted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as saying: "Karzai heads a narco-state." The paper concluded by saying: "Americans are worried and fear defeat in their war on Afghanistan, and they may intend to bypass Karzai and deal directly with rulers and governors in districts and rural areas."
Accordingly, it is clear that the current Obama administration places Afghanistan at the top of its foreign policy priorities. It wants fundamental change in Afghanistan, especially since Obama focused on bringing about change there during his election campaigns. Karzai realizes this fact and also knows that, as an American agent, he cannot seek help from any other country like Russia or China to maintain his seat of power. He does not control any city in Afghanistan, and his presence in power is dependent on the protection of American forces.
- From here, his relations with Russia and China can be interpreted as relations approved and agreed upon by America to seek the help of these major powers in fighting the Taliban.
As for Russia's acceptance of Afghanistan as an observer member in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, this does not indicate that Karzai is acting independently of America. Rather, it indicates that Russia is opening the door even for American agent states to enter this club to ensure the front remains quiet from its side, so it is not attacked from that direction. Naturally, this does not mean that Russia will not try to have some kind of influence in those American agent states, but this matter is unlikely for Afghanistan... at least in the foreseeable future.
As for Russia's acceptance to help Afghanistan in the field of armaments, and what was mentioned in the letter of Russian President Medvedev to Karzai regarding Russia's readiness to help Afghanistan in the defense sectors, it means that America is the one that requested this assistance from Russia because there are Russian weapons in the hands of the Afghan army that need Russian spare parts.
The spokesperson for Karzai's government, Homayun Hamidzada, confirmed this meaning, saying: "Despite Karzai's invitation to Russia to provide defense aid, Afghanistan is committed to its ties with NATO and the United States." He added: "Our national army's equipment, helicopters, and tanks are Russian-made; therefore, this request is of a technical nature, and we are linked by a strategic bond with NATO and the United States." He is referring here to the presence of Russian-made aircraft in Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion.
This means that Karzai's relationship with Russia is an ordinary matter and has nothing to do with international conflict...
- Accordingly, it can be said that Karzai himself knows his role in Afghanistan is nearing its end. He knows the Obama administration has decided to make new changes that include him personally, and his objections to current American policy are nothing but a theatrical performance through which he wants to present himself as a real president.
In other words, the Obama administration wants to try its luck with someone other than Karzai, who has been exhausted and is no longer fit to continue in this position.
As for the proposed person, America will try to find someone more acceptable to the Afghan people than Karzai, who has been proven to everyone to be nothing more than a vulgar American puppet.
The popularity of any president for Afghanistan necessitates that he be of Pashtun origin because they represent the majority of Afghans. Therefore, America excludes important and popular figures from the Uzbek, Tajik, or Hazara minorities, such as Yunus Qanuni, Qasim Fahim (the deputy of Ahmad Shah Massoud who was assassinated years ago), Ismail Khan (the governor of Herat), Rashid Dostum, Burhanuddin Rabbani, or any other person associated with the Northern Alliance that conspired with the Americans to overthrow the Taliban during the invasion in 2001.
According to the data available to date, it appears that Ali Ahmad Jalali, the former Minister of Interior, is the most likely candidate for the Americans to replace Karzai in the elections scheduled for next August or September. This is because he is a Pashtun first, and because he is a security man second, which is what is required for America. As for the other Pashtun names nominated for the presidency, we do not think they possess such qualifications.
However, political data moves rapidly. It is expected that if America does not find the appropriate person to succeed Karzai, it may postpone the elections, and Karzai will continue until it finds a competent agent for itself; meaning, Karzai’s staying is a matter of time. As for getting rid of him by America killing him, it is unlikely because the man is a loyal employee to them more than he is just an agent.
In conclusion, what appears to be a dispute between Karzai and the Obama administration is nothing but a play whose primary goal is to suggest that the post of president in Afghanistan is a real one and that he is not just a puppet. Thus, this dispute does not exceed the margin of maneuver allowed by America.
Finally, we say: The current Obama administration wants to pursue a new approach in Afghanistan, different from the Bush administration's approach which has proven to be a failure. One of the requirements of this new approach is to change burnt-out faces like Karzai and replace them with others, hoping thereby to improve the deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan and consequently ease the security pressure on American forces and their allies.