Question:
On Wednesday, 16 June 2021, the first summit between US President Biden and Russian President Putin was held in Geneva. What is the significance of this summit? What is its objective? Were positive results achieved from the meeting of the two presidents in Geneva—meaning, are American-Russian relations heading toward improvement after years described as the worst in the history of the two countries?
Answer:
The dimensions of the American-Russian summit cannot be understood without understanding the backgrounds that led to the deterioration of relations between the two countries in recent years:
Many media outlets and some politicians repeat the description of the two countries, America and Russia, as "the two giants," continuing a reality ingrained in minds that America and the "Soviet Union" are the two strongest and largest countries in the world, each with its own camp. The truth is that the great weakness that befell the Russian state after the collapse of the Soviet Union dropped it many ranks below the level of international competition with America. For all that, the summit held between the presidents of the two countries is far less significant than the American-Soviet summits that carried many consequences. Nothing remains of the pillars of Russia's greatness except military power, especially nuclear and missile strength and its space capabilities; other than that, there is no greatness in Russia!
Russian relations with America began to deteriorate toward the end of the Obama administration. There were sanctions due to Russia's occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and its expulsion from the G8, then sanctions due to interference in the US elections in 2016, and the Obama administration’s expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats and its imposition of sanctions on Russian intelligence agencies at the end of December 2016—that is, after Trump won the US elections and before he assumed office (Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2021). Despite all the sweet talk Trump uttered toward Putin, America continued to impose more sanctions on Russia and push their relations toward tension. It closed Russian consulates in several American cities and restricted Russian news channels in America. American sanctions were imposed on Russia for various reasons, valid or otherwise: they were imposed for the arrest of the Russian opposition figure Navalny, for the accusations of poisoning the Russian opposition figure Skripal in Britain in 2018, and on Russian technology companies on charges of cyberattacks, as happened at the end of the Trump administration. When the Biden administration came, it increased the crisis in relations; US President Biden described Russian President Putin as a "killer" and said he would pay the price for his interference in the US elections (Sky News Arabia, 17 March 2021). The Russian ambassador left Washington as a result in March 2021, followed by the American ambassador leaving Moscow the following month. America even threatened to disconnect Russia from the international financial system.
The Democratic Biden administration carries more hatred for Russia and its president, Putin, accusing him of being the reason for Hillary Clinton's loss in the 2016 presidential election. When the Democrats were in opposition, they demanded that former President Trump punish Russia, accusing him of being lenient with it, embarrassing him in this regard, and promising to punish Russia if they won the 2020 election. When the Democratic President Biden won those elections, it coincided with extremely powerful cyberattacks against the systems of the SolarWinds company used by sensitive US government agencies, and US intelligence accused Russia of these cyberattacks. America began describing Russia as an "enemy." In fact, two days before the summit, Biden threatened to include Ukraine in NATO! Thus, this meeting did not align with the tension between the two countries; rather, it had another side. By pondering its background and proceedings, it becomes clear:
a- The meeting between the two presidents concluded after two and a half hours, though it was scheduled for four hours. No joint press conference was held; each held their own press conference separately, both of which were broadcast live by Al Jazeera (16 June 2021) and other media outlets. The joint statement was limited to an agreement that there is no winner in a nuclear war, even though one is not looming on the horizon between them. US President Biden pledged Washington's continued commitment to the START 3 treaty to reduce strategic weapons after the committees agreed upon complete the required tasks in this regard. Many contentious issues between the two countries were discussed. The Russian President asked his American counterpart about his description of him as a "killer," and Biden spoke in his press conference about the devastating effects of the potential death of the Russian opposition figure Navalny in prison. However, he described the conference as productive and positive, implicitly admitting that the meeting included threatening Russia if it interfered in US elections again or carried out cyberattacks again. The Russian President said in his press conference that it is difficult to say relations between the two countries are improving, but he spoke of a "glimmer of hope" for that. He attacked the United States on human rights issues, reminding of the US intelligence prisons in Guantanamo and other countries, and America's inhumane practices against Black people and other peoples, in response to the sharp American criticism regarding human rights inside Russia. Biden spoke about the importance of holding a direct meeting between him and Putin to avoid any misunderstanding in their relations, suggesting that the future of relations depends on steps taken by Russia.
b- Upon scrutiny, we find that America was the one initiating pressure on Russia, and America was the one that escalated relations to a degree previously described by Russian President Putin as "greatly destructive." It was America that initiated the summit meeting between the two leaders without there being an agreement on the points of contention. Russia was optimistic and cheered that Biden was the first American president to decide to meet its president on his first foreign tour, seeing it as proof of the importance Washington attaches to Moscow. The American President Biden responded by visiting Britain, meeting its Prime Minister Johnson, and making the G7 summit in Britain an in-person meeting after it was expected to be virtual. Biden added to this an in-person NATO summit in Brussels, during which he held several meetings, including with the President of Turkey, Erdogan. In Brussels, Biden also held a rare meeting with the presidents of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Thus, the Biden-Putin meeting became just one of many meetings the American President held in person during his European tour—effectively downsizing Russia's hopes for a special conference!
c- For all this, it can be said that the positive results of the summit meeting between the two leaders were very minor, limited to returning the ambassadors of both countries to each other's capitals and the pledge regarding the START 3 strategic treaty. The improvement of relations between them depends on Russia's next steps—meaning its concessions and mistakes, such as Russia's strategic error in helping America in Syria. By President Putin announcing his military intervention in Syria after his meeting with US President Obama in New York on 28 September 2015, Russia had offered its military services for the benefit of America. Perhaps Russia was driven by its hatred for Islam and Muslims to fight in Syria, and perhaps it also rushed to break its international isolation after its occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and the subsequent Western sanctions. But more importantly, America has tasted the Russian military services and seen their importance in serving its influence in Syria, and it has begun to greatly covet transferring this task to the vicinity of China. Russia's intervention in Syria, while being aware of Bashar's agency to America, was a major strategic mistake that no rational leadership of any independent state would undertake.
d- As for America's undeclared goals for its pressure on Russia, it is to make Russia an international stone in the American strategy against China. If the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was the architect of involving Russia in pressuring China and forcing it into peaceful coexistence with America during the Vietnam War in the mid-sixties of the last century, then American political circles have continued to view this American elder as a strategic political thinker with deep insight into international politics. Therefore, those circles arranged two important individual meetings for him in 2016, while he was in his nineties, with the US presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. His recommendations to them were the importance and necessity of involving Russia and pushing it with America against China.
e- Although these American goals are undeclared, America conveys them to Russia in one way or another, and Russia understands them well. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed: "the United States will not be able to turn Russia into a tool to serve its interests and confront China... They are now seriously discussing how to use Russia against China for their benefit... wanting to make us a tool to serve the interests of the United States." He added: "But of course, this will not work with us." (RT, 24 December 2018).
f- This is precisely what America wants from Russia. Therefore, it pressures Russia and creates tension in the atmosphere, applying Henry Kissinger's theory to contain China by involving Russia. Otherwise, Russia does not compete with America in the economy or international politics, and it possesses none of the components of a major power except the military machine. American-Soviet, then Russian, treaties have placed Russia's military machine within a framework of discipline far from threatening America. In fact, America has reneged on many treaties, such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty held since 1972, and built its missile shield. Russia does not possess a strong economy that qualifies it to further develop its military capabilities similar to what America possesses... Thus, Russia's nuclear and strategic capabilities were not the reason and motive for America to strain relations with it. Rather, this tension in relations with Russia was intended to pressure it to move away from China, which has become a major focus of attention for America. Its former Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan, called on his military leaders to focus on China, saying: "China, China, China" (Al Jazeera Net, 3 January 2019).
g- However, America, by straining relations with Russia, has so far failed to push Russia against China, especially since America's pressure on Russia coincided with its pressure on China through the trade war. This created a Russian rapprochement with China... meaning that the American pressure on Russia to force it to walk with it against China began to yield results opposite to what America wants, and it no doubt realizes the danger of the Russian trend toward rapprochement with China... Therefore, the Biden administration decided to set aside the "pressure" method on Russia and replace it with the method of giving it a "glimmer of hope" through the summit meeting, and thus distance the Russo-Chinese rapprochement as much as possible... and open a major dialogue with it through the committees that were formed in the meeting of the two leaders.
Thus, Biden's meeting with Putin is to achieve this goal—that is, to give a glimmer of hope to Putin in terms of removing American tension and sanction pressures toward Russia as a means to support America in its position toward China, or at least to prevent Russian rapprochement with China. As for other points of tension between the two countries, they do not deserve all that great importance. For example, the discussion between them about Syria and that America wants to solve the Syrian crisis as it wants; Russia does not oppose this as long as it saves its face. Likewise, in Afghanistan, Russia is too weak to ignite the ground under America's feet as America ignited it against them during the eighties. Furthermore, Russia's interference in the US elections is due to the openness of the internet as a new means of influence, and perhaps Russia did not appreciate the strength of America's reaction, otherwise it would have stayed away from that interference. As for the cyberattacks that America accuses Russia of carrying out, they do not have an effective impact that is difficult to treat. Biden responded after his summit with Putin that America has immense capabilities to hack Russia and carry out electronic sabotage if Russia returns to hacking again, giving an example of its ability to sabotage Russian oil pipelines...
The Russian President left Geneva knowing full well that America is waiting for Russia's next steps in the coming months and that it is in the process of examining and considering those steps through the joint committees that were approved for formation. The Russian President knows well that America's pressure capabilities on Russia are immense, and he has experienced some of them. He also knows that China might leave him and head toward the West because its commercial interests in the West are much larger than its commercial interests with Russia. For all this, the coming months will likely witness a breakthrough in American relations with Russia, and the return of ambassadors is the prelude. It is also likely that Russian-Chinese relations will take the path toward coldness; to the extent that there is warmth in Russia's relations with America, it leaves a coldness in its relations with China. If this is achieved, American President Biden's initiative to hold the summit with Russian President Putin will have put an end to the Russian rapprochement with China and also put Russia on the path of pressuring China, even if to a lesser degree than America's expectations according to Kissinger's theory. If this is not achieved and the tendency of rebellion continues within Russia under Putin's leadership, it is expected that the Biden administration will double its pressure on Russia and threaten it with a belt of fire around it in the Caucasus—where the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict lies—then Ukraine and Western support for it to reunify its territories...
Thus, these tyrannical states, headed by America, do not think about what benefits people, but rather about what achieves their interests even if it is fatal to people.
أُوْلَـئِكَ شَرٌّ مَّكَاناً وَأَضَلُّ عَن سَواءِ السَّبِيلِ
"They are worse in position and further astray from the right way." (QS. Al-Ma'idah [5]: 60)
9 Dhu al-Qi'dah 1442 AH 20 June 2021 CE