Question:
Last week, specifically on October 18 and 19, 2010, a trilateral summit was held in the resort of Deauville, France, at the invitation of President Sarkozy, with the participation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Is this summit a precursor to the formation of a new axis between France, Germany, and Russia? If so, what is its purpose? What is its significance in the current international reality? Or is it merely an ordinary meeting, like any other between states, to share certain interests?
Answer:
1- Sarkozy called for this summit amidst specific domestic and international circumstances:
As for the domestic circumstances, France is witnessing turmoil and unrest following the passage of the law regarding the so-called pension reform...
As for the international circumstances, which are more significant, they are manifest in the upcoming Lisbon Summit on November 19, 2010, which will discuss the missile defense shield and nuclear weapons. Additionally, there is the G20 summit to be held on November 11 and 12, 2010, in South Korea, which will discuss the global financial situation. Sarkozy has been calling for its reform by creating a new international monetary system. Furthermore, France is preparing itself to take over the presidency of the G20 for one year following that date.
2- The importance of this summit lies in its relationship to the international situation. it is related to the positions of these major powers toward one another and toward the leading state in the world, which is America. Although Germany is not, in the international reality, a major state, it possesses the characteristics of a major state, and it is a major power within the European Union.
It appeared as though Sarkozy was working to revive the France-Germany-Russia axis, which was active before he and his counterparts, Merkel and Medvedev, came to power in their respective countries. Merkel and Medvedev also have an interest in this rapprochement, so they responded to their colleague Sarkozy. All three had a desire for this summit and hoped to achieve their interests. The French Press Agency (AFP) reported on October 18, 2010, quoting "sources from the German delegation that among Merkel's prominent goals behind this summit is the European security file, in addition to seriously considering linking the Russian economy to the European economic machine." It also quoted "sources from the Russian delegation stating that they see the summit only as a positive engagement with us as a European power that can be useful for Europe and the world." The French agency added to its report: "France has a small nuclear deterrent and fears it will pay the price in the event of a NATO-Russian agreement on nuclear disarmament in Europe, especially since Britain has begun to abandon its nuclear arsenal by not renewing it, while Berlin sees the missile shield as a positive step." The French agency further added that the three leaders "agreed to work towards establishing a new partnership." They expressed their "satisfaction with the sincere, open, and well-intentioned talks, even regarding contentious issues between them." This indicates that these three countries have interests they each want to achieve by establishing a partnership among them.
3- These interests are as follows:
France sees that its nuclear weapons are being targeted and that it faces American pressure, as occurred at the Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington on April 12 and 13, 2010. There, US President Obama called for Europe (and France specifically) to abandon nuclear weapons and settle for the missile defense shield system instead. However, France rejected the call to abandon its nuclear weapons. Its president, Sarkozy, said at the time: "France will never give up this weapon unless it is certain that the world has become stable and safe" (April 13, 2010, American CBS television). France believes it is the intended target of this and does not want to abandon its nuclear weapons, which it considers a source of strength and greatness. Sarkozy clarified this matter by saying: "This system (the missile defense shield) can only be complementary to the nuclear deterrent, which France has no intention of abandoning" (AFP October 19, 2010). France wants to strengthen itself through Germany and Russia to stand with it in the upcoming Lisbon Summit and to adopt its view in the summit in the face of America, preventing a Russo-American agreement on European nuclear disarmament and the missile shield taking its place...
As for Germany, its voice has recently risen to say that "the missile shield is called upon to replace nuclear deterrence." The agency added: "However, Merkel was careful not to anger France when she said that any nuclear disarmament can only take place on the basis of the principle of reciprocity." Germany supports nuclear disarmament as it does not possess such weapons and is prohibited from possessing them; thus, it does not agree with France on this point. However, Merkel wants other countries that possess nuclear weapons to disarm, not just France or Europe alone—primarily referring to Russia. Germany saw that it was in its interest for Russia to cooperate with NATO to ward off its danger. Merkel said: "It is good news that Dmitry Medvedev has agreed to participate in the NATO summit."
As for Russia, its position on the missile defense system is that it is not far from accepting it if America offers incentives and reassurances that it is not the target. Medvedev stated following this trilateral summit: "Russia has not yet made a decision to join the unified European missile defense system." He said: "We are now studying this idea, but I think that NATO itself must form a clear picture of Russia's participation in this system and understand the outcome of joining, the agreements that can be concluded in this context, and the future of our cooperation." He mentioned that relations between Russia and NATO were discussed at the Deauville summit and said: "I would like to attend Lisbon to participate in the Russia-NATO summit to be held on November 20. It seems to me that this will help in finding compromises and developing the dialogue between Russia and NATO in general" (Russia Today October 19, 2010).
The Russian President hinted at his suspicion of the missile shield, wanting to understand the intent behind it, its program, the guarantees for Russia, and what will be offered to Russia in return. Nevertheless, Russia currently does not want to stand against America as happened during the era of that previous axis. Rather, it is working on rapprochement with America to restore its status as a superpower that manages world affairs alongside America. It flatters America at times and flirts with it at others so that it might be given that recognition and shared in the management of world affairs, as was the case during the era of the collapsed Soviet Union. It knows that Sarkozy’s France and Merkel’s Germany are unable to stand in the face of America, and thus it sees that it will not benefit much from forming a front with them against America. It also knows that they are not sincere with it, as they are working to exploit and use it.
5- It is not expected that France will succeed in reviving the France-Germany-Russia axis due to the difference in goals and objectives:
Russia did not respond fully to France, and both France and Germany did not meet Russia's demands in a way that satisfies the latter. Their procrastination appeared evident, particularly regarding the issue of entry visas for Russian citizens to Europe. France wants to exploit Russia by bringing it to its side to stand against America on the issue of nuclear weapons, as Russia possesses a large nuclear arsenal and has no intention of abandoning it. The missile shield issue concerns Russia because it relates to it and is positioned against it.
As for France, Sarkozy wanted to find supporters for his idea of calling for a reform of the global monetary system controlled by America. This means reconsidering the Bretton Woods Agreement concluded in 1944, which enabled America to control the world economy through international financial institutions established following this agreement, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as making the dollar a global currency and a measure for gold and state currencies. Sarkozy's call has been ongoing since the global financial crisis reached its peak in 2008, but France has not been able to achieve it because America stood in its way and because France was unable to rally the countries of the world behind it to achieve that.
France is working to strengthen itself through Germany and Russia to stand against America on the issue of nuclear weapons and the missile shield, as well as the issue of reforming the global monetary system. However, this is not easy to achieve due to the existence of Russian interests with America, and because Germany is not a nuclear state, nor does it dare to sever its relations with the international economic institutions established by America.
Furthermore, Sarkozy wanted domestically to strengthen his position before his people and internal political forces so he could proceed with passing the pension reform law, which the French Parliament approved today, October 28, 2010, after the Senate adopted it the day before yesterday, October 26, 2010, despite the unrest sweeping his country. He did this by showing himself as performing great works for France, winning Germany and Russia to his side, and facing risks confronting France from which he wants to save it. Germany and Russia are aware of this, and they realize that France wants to lean on its meeting with them to solve its internal problems.
As for the Germans, they want to continue sending their companies to Russia for investment and exploitation. In fact, they want the doors of Russia to be opened wide for them to do as they please without the Russians receiving the same in return. They also want to sell their goods to it, so that Russian markets are opened wide for them, without Russians coming to Europe, so that the Russians do not benefit from Western expertise or invest inside Europe; thus, the doors of Europe remain closed in their faces. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union until today, Russians cannot easily come to Europe, as obstacles are placed in their way and they do not obtain entry visas easily from European embassies in Moscow. It is the European companies that go and invest there and export goods there. As for ordinary Russian traders, they obtain European goods, such as cars, through the Baltic republics like Lithuania and Latvia; they reach there but cannot move beyond them into the heart of Europe. This is because the citizens of these republics bordering Russia can reach the heart of Europe, especially Germany, and transport goods to the Russians because their countries have been part of the European Union since 2004. Before this date, there were significant facilities for the citizens of these republics since their separation from the Soviet Union with the aim of annexing those countries to the Union, which was achieved.
Consequently, these political and economic (conflicts) between France, Germany, and Russia make it difficult to establish this axis.
6- Therefore, alongside this trilateral summit, Germany and France held a parallel Franco-German summit to study their common interests... A joint Franco-German statement was issued calling for a review of the Lisbon Treaty between now and 2013. They called for establishing a "permanent mechanism to provide an organized treatment of crises in the future, and to allow, in the event of a serious violation of the basic principles of the Economic and Monetary Union... the suspension of the voting rights of the concerned states." France and Germany embrace the European Union and want to preserve it with all their might. they want to strengthen the Union through economic openness to Russia, but without economically merging Russia with the European Union. Therefore, the opinion of France and Germany regarding entry visas for Russians to the European Union remained procrastinatory toward canceling the visas, despite Medvedev's repeated requests. Merkel's response was: "We know that the visa issue is an important topic for Russia, and we must proceed step by step, because that does not happen all at once." As for Sarkozy, he replied: "Visas are an important issue for our Russian friends, so we will talk about it," adding, "We have taken into account the request of President Medvedev, who himself committed to other topics," referring to the energy issue, and said, "There is no problem, and we are trying to reach an understanding; the important thing is that we make progress."
7- In conclusion, the Deauville summit was held by these three countries, each aiming to achieve specific interests—some private and some general shared by the three. While it is not expected that this meeting will result in the formation of a new effective axis, the mere fact of holding it is an internationally influential step. For years, European countries have not been able to meet independently of America to form an axis between them, even if only theoretically.