Question:
(...Earlier "today" Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and lifted the state of emergency, which had been declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek... Yeni Şafak Arabic, 16/10/2020). The Kyrgyz capital had witnessed violent protests, and protesters took control of government headquarters demanding the removal of the pro-Russian President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, which they achieved... So, what is the reality of what is happening in Kyrgyzstan? Is Russian influence being removed from this Islamic country? And is there a role for America in this conflict? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
To clarify the answer and reveal the reality of what is happening in Kyrgyzstan, the following must be explained:
First: The General Situation in Kyrgyzstan:
Kyrgyzstan is one of the Islamic countries in Central Asia, and its borders today connect with China from the side of East Turkestan, in addition to other Central Asian Islamic countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan... Kyrgyzstan fell under Tsarist Russian occupation in 1876. Several revolutions broke out against the Russian occupation, but Russia managed to abort them. It then became a republic within the Soviet Union, meaning it was ruled directly from Moscow from 1876 until 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated and Kyrgyzstan declared its independence. However, its political class had absorbed loyalty to Russia with their mother’s milk, so Russia maintained great influence there after its independence.
Since its independence, Kyrgyzstan has been ruled by the leaders of the Communist Party after they changed their masks and established parties with various names. These leaders took orders directly from Moscow. However, Russia's period of weakness during the nineties and its inward retreat gave America some access to these politicians. During the push of the Neo-conservatives during the era of George W. Bush, and America's declaration of war on Islam and its initiation of American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, America managed to penetrate Central Asia and began weaving relations with its rulers and political forces. Within this framework, it established the Manas military base near the capital, Bishkek, to assist the US military in its war against Afghanistan.
America's entrapment in the Iraqi quagmire between 2003 and 2009 coincided with the return of some vitality to the government in Russia after Vladimir Putin took the reins of power in Moscow. Consequently, America was forced in 2014 to dismantle its "Manas" military base near Bishkek. In contrast, Russia reinforced its military base in Kyrgyzstan, which it had established in 2003. In 2015, Kyrgyzstan canceled its agreement with America (Kyrgyz Prime Minister, Temir Sariyev, ordered his government to cancel the bilateral agreement concluded in 1993 with the United States. The government said in a statement that the agreement would no longer be effective as of next August 20. Al Jazeera Net, 22/7/2015). Thus, Russia succeeded in completely removing American influence from Kyrgyzstan. Russia had also included Kyrgyzstan in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which it founded on the ruins of the Soviet Union since its establishment in 1992, and Kyrgyzstan remained a member even during periods when America had influence in Bishkek. It also included it in the Eurasian Economic Union almost since its establishment in 2014.
On the local level, the political class in Kyrgyzstan, as in most countries that became independent due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, is characterized by extreme corruption. Competition for power quickly turns into a fierce struggle for the competitors to indulge in the nation's wealth, while any concepts of Ri'ayah (caretaking) are absent. This leaves the people wandering without a shepherd. Because the depth of corruption is great, the people in Kyrgyzstan revolted in 2005 against President Akayev, who had ruled since independence, and he fled to Russia. They revolted again in 2010 against President Bakiyev in a wave of overwhelming anger accompanied by violence that claimed dozens of lives and ended with a coup by security forces against the president, who fled to the south of the country and then left for Kazakhstan. Otunbayeva was then installed as the interim president of the country.
Although Russia was stoking conditions against Islam and Muslims in Central Asia, using rulers who were raised in the Soviet era as its tools, Islamic thought began to spread again in Kyrgyzstan shortly before its independence and thereafter. Hizb ut-Tahrir was active, vigorously calling for the rule of Islam and the establishment of the Islamic Khilafah. Its activity was remarkable, especially in the southern regions, which are geographically part of the Fergana Valley. This occurred despite the fact that the authorities in Kyrgyzstan—under the direction of Russia, which harbors hatred for Islam, similar to the tyrant of Uzbekistan and the rest of the Central Asian countries—confronted the party's activity with severe repression. Nevertheless, Islam in Kyrgyzstan still has a noticeable influence in many regions despite the fierce attack against it by Russia and its followers.
Second: The Recent Disturbances in the Capital, Bishkek:
President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, who has ruled the country since 2017, planned to obtain a majority in the recent parliamentary elections to enable him to amend the constitution so he could run again after his constitutional term ended. The constitution stipulates only one presidential term of six years. Therefore, a landslide victory was announced for the parties loyal to and close to the president in the parliamentary elections on 4/10/2020. Only four out of 16 parties were able to cross the parliamentary threshold (7% of the votes). This means the new parliament (120 members) was supposed, according to Jeenbekov's plan, to be formed by parties loyal to and close to him. (The Central Election Commission in Kyrgyzstan announced that 4 out of 16 political parties participating in the elections succeeded in entering the new 120-seat parliament, prompting supporters of the 12 non-represented parties to hold demonstrations protesting the results. Daily Sabah Turkish, 6/10/2020). This plan suppressed the political rights of the other parties that did not succeed. (The 12 losing parties issued a joint declaration saying they do not recognize the election results... TRT Arabic, 6/10/2020).
Thus, supporters of the political parties rejecting the election results flocked since the early morning hours to "Ala-Too" Square and the vicinity of the Prime Minister's headquarters. Then these angry crowds began attacking and seizing government headquarters. They indeed seized the Parliament building and the Presidential Administration. Some crowds also stormed prisons and released specific detainees. The headquarters of the National Security Committee in the capital, Bishkek, was attacked, and former President Atambaev, who was in a cell there serving an 11-year sentence on corruption charges, was released. Sadyr Japarov was also released, and the court hurried to acquit him of the charge of taking hostages in 2013, the charge for which he was in prison. Parallel to the capital, massive popular marches broke out in regional centers condemning the government and demanding the president's resignation. In the southern regions from which the president hails, some marches supportive of him took place, but they were not at the level of those demanding his removal.
The wave of protests was so sweeping that it terrified the state. The Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament resigned, as did the heads of some regions. President Jeenbekov disappeared, and with him, the security services disappeared from the streets. The president began issuing statements from a hidden location via the internet, announcing that he had asked the security services not to confront the protesters. He accused the opposition of a coup and seizing power, announced his readiness for a compromise, and demanded the Central Election Commission to investigate violations and cancel the results if necessary, in an indication of the intensity and strength of the protests against him. (Jeenbekov called on the political parties to be patient, addressing the youth: "You have shown that the value of Kyrgyzstan is greater than the struggle for power, through action and not words. Our goal is to ensure peace and order in our country. I am confident that we will emerge from this crisis through collective efforts." He added: "I thank the youth who have not ceased to fulfill their responsibilities in the country." AR Haberler.com 7/10/2020).
Then the Central Election Commission announced the cancellation of the election results, and opposition parties formed the Coordination Council of Opposition Forces, which appointed Sadyr Japarov as the new Prime Minister during an emergency session of Parliament held in a hotel in the capital, Bishkek—he who the opposition had liberated from prison. (...and appointed Sadyr Japarov as the new head of government after a vote during an emergency session, replacing former Prime Minister Kubatbek Boronov who resigned. It added that the current Parliament would continue to work until a new Parliament is elected. RT, 7/10/2020)... (Today, Wednesday, more than 80 out of 120 deputies attended an extraordinary session of Parliament during which they voted to approve the appointment of Japarov to the position along with his proposed government. Then Jeenbekov signed a decree confirming the appointment of Japarov as Prime Minister alongside his government, according to a presidential statement... Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020).
("...Earlier "today" Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and canceled the state of emergency declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek. Participating in the session, during which the president's resignation and the cancellation of the state of emergency were approved unanimously, were Jeenbekov, Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov, alongside the Speaker of Parliament Kanat Isaev. Before the vote, Jeenbekov delivered his final speech to the members of Parliament, stating that his stepping down came for the sake of ensuring peace in the country and preventing the division of society... Yeni Şafak Arabic, 16/10/2020)... Thus, (the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, consolidated his power after the powers of the president were transferred to him following the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, "which he submitted" yesterday, and he promised to maintain the country's foreign policy. Japarov told Parliament today, Friday: "I thank God that the change of power was peaceful... I will do my best to maintain the foreign policy and other important directions"... Sputnik, 16/10/2020).
Third: Russian Influence in Kyrgyzstan:
Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan is considered strong and multifaceted. Russia built a military base in Kyrgyzstan during the same period America was building its base. Therefore, Russian influence was never absent from Kyrgyzstan, even during the period when America could inject some of its influence. Russia built a military base in 2003 (The Russian Kant Air Base was opened in Kyrgyzstan in October 2003 as an aviation component of the Collective Rapid Deployment Forces of the CSTO. Its main tasks are air cover for the ground operations of the CSTO. It is equipped with Su-25SM aircraft and Mi-8MTV helicopters... RT, 28/3/2019). On this same day, Thursday, Moscow and Bishkek, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to the Kyrgyz capital, signed a protocol introducing amendments to the agreement between the two countries regarding the Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan. Assistant to the Russian President Yuri Ushakov said: ("A number of agreements were signed, including a document amending the 2012 agreement regarding the status and conditions of the Russian military base's presence in Kyrgyzstan"... For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "The Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan is an important factor for security and stability in Central Asia and contributes to the defense capability of Kyrgyzstan." This base includes Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters... Al-Dustour Newspaper, 28/03/2019)... Thus, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Jeenbekov, was in total loyalty to Russia, coordinating with it in the CSTO and complying with everything it wanted, such as developing the military base.
However, Russia is deeply afraid that some opposition parties that have contacts with America will take the reins of government in Bishkek and break Russia's monopoly on influence there. Although Russia maintains relations with most opposition parties in Kyrgyzstan to ensure they are not hostile to Russia, and some of these parties are loyal to Russia and not outside its sphere of influence, Russia monitors this struggle for power, attempting to prevent the intervention of external powers and holding the reins of the security services that can intervene at critical moments. (Russian President Vladimir Putin said today, Wednesday, that Moscow is in contact with all parties to the conflict and hopes for a return to the democratic process soon. Al Jazeera Net, 7/10/2020)... What increases Russia's fear is that the forces loyal to it sometimes engage in fierce conflicts, as seen periodically and especially recently after President Sooronbay Jeenbekov's attempt to manipulate the election results. Such disturbances, especially if election manipulation is exposed, create opportunities for American followers—even if they are relatively few—to embarrass Russia.
The Russian position is fundamentally against protests against rulers loyal to it, unless it is forced otherwise to preserve its interests. It does not allow the situation to get out of its control. (The Kremlin considered today that this country is witnessing a state of chaos. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia has obligations to prevent the total collapse of the situation in Kyrgyzstan. Al Jazeera Net, 8/10/2020). Russia, which controls the security services in Kyrgyzstan, does not allow parties with contacts with America and its cohorts to lead the scene in Bishkek. It held the stick for President Jeenbekov, who hinted at resignation without resigning until Russia decided based on its interests. For this reason, Russia sent the Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration in the Kremlin, Dmitry Kozak, this week to hold talks with Jeenbekov and Japarov and study matters closely... (The Russian Embassy said yesterday, Tuesday: "The fundamental role of the head of state" in ensuring the future development of Kyrgyzstan was emphasized during Kozak's visit... Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020), all to take the necessary measures... Nevertheless, it is unlikely that Russia will intervene militarily directly, as it believes its followers are capable of holding the reins of power in Kyrgyzstan and that the security forces are in its grip and at its beck and call if it wants to replace one president with another of its followers, especially since many political forces are its followers!
Now that protests have increased, Russia saw fit "to calm the situation" for the President of Kyrgyzstan to agree to the appointment of Sadyr Japarov as Prime Minister after the Parliament voted in favor of his return to power on 14/10/2020, following his recent release from prison at the hands of his supporters, where he was serving a sentence of more than 11 years... (Today, Wednesday, more than 80 out of 120 deputies attended an extraordinary session of Parliament during which they voted to approve the appointment of Japarov to the position along with his proposed government. Then Jeenbekov signed a decree confirming the appointment of Japarov as Prime Minister alongside his government, according to a presidential statement... Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020).
("...Earlier "today" Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and canceled the state of emergency declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek. Participating in the session, during which the president's resignation and the cancellation of the state of emergency were approved unanimously, were Jeenbekov, Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov, alongside the Speaker of Parliament Kanat Isaev. Before the vote, Jeenbekov delivered his final speech to the members of Parliament, stating that his stepping down came for the sake of ensuring peace in the country and preventing the division of society... Yeni Şafak Arabic: 16/10/2020)... Thus, (the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, consolidated his power after the powers of the president were transferred to him following the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, "which he submitted" yesterday, and he promised to maintain the country's foreign policy. Japarov told Parliament today, Friday: "I thank God that the change of power was peaceful... I will do my best to maintain the foreign policy and other important directions"... Sputnik, 16/10/2020).
Fourth: The American Role:
As for America, its position was clear in exploiting what happened in the elections to embarrass Russia and the Kyrgyz authority. (The United States urged all parties in Kyrgyzstan to exercise restraint and find a peaceful solution, expressing concern over practices that marred the elections and led to major protests. A US State Department spokesman told AFP: "We call on all parties to renounce violence and resolve the existing conflict over the elections by peaceful means." The US State Department noted that an observation mission supported by the OSCE "concluded credible information about vote-buying operations that marred the elections." Al Jazeera Net, 7/10/2020). This means that the new circumstances in Kyrgyzstan, characterized by political ambiguity, provide America with the appropriate atmosphere to penetrate this country. It undoubtedly has contacts with some opposition parties and was accused earlier this year of spending 60 million dollars in "cash" to support parliamentary candidates and associations to give its followers some influence, in addition to other funds spent by the George Soros Foundation for the purpose of destabilizing a country dominated by Russian influence. All these funds were spent without the knowledge of the Jeenbekov government, according to the Time company website, 10/1/2020.
America has followers in the Kyrgyz opposition, but they are an ineffective minority in eliminating Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan until today. However, they are active in exploiting any friction between Russia's followers competing for power. They almost succeeded had Russia not ordered Jeenbekov to resign to calm the situation, and then Russia will work to appoint another of its men after elections held under its watch!
Fifth: In Conclusion:
The struggle for power in Kyrgyzstan is primarily a local struggle due to the lack of maturity in the ruling mentality of those leading the political scene in this Muslim country. Because of this, disputes and conflicts break out, the essence of which is ethnic, regional, or tribal. Although the opposition and loyalist parties are called by general names, experts distinguish their leanings such that they do not deviate from the ethnic, regional, or tribal core. This conflict, in its current state, is not intended to remove Russia's great influence from this small republic. Rather, Russia fears America's contacts with some opposition parties amidst the state of chaos following the announcement of parliamentary election results. It fears America regaining a foothold after Russia exerted its effort to remove America from Kyrgyzstan, allowing it once again an influence with which it can work against Russia in Kyrgyzstan and its surroundings.
This will remain the state of Muslims in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere, where they are ruled by evil rulers who drag the Ummah from one depth to another, caring only for their personal interests. They view ruling as a spoil and possess no nurturing (Ri'ayah) outlook toward the Ummah that installs them or remains silent about the colonialist Kafir installing them. The situation will remain so until the Ummah rises, and its strongest faction rises to expel these rulers, tear out the roots of the colonialist Kafir from Muslim lands, and build its state, the Khilafah State, on the basis of its Deen, and installs a ruler who rules it by what Allah has revealed, being a helper to it for a decent life and a helper to Paradise, by Allah's permission.
يَغْفِرْ لَكُمْ ذُنُوبَكُمْ وَيُدْخِلْكُمْ جَنَّاتٍ تَجْرِي مِنْ تَحْتِهَا الْأَنْهَارُ وَمَسَاكِنَ طَيِّبَةً فِي جَنَّاتِ عَدْنٍ ذَلِكَ الْفَوْزُ الْعَظِيمُ * وَأُخْرَى تُحِبُّونَهَا نَصْرٌ مِنَ اللَّهِ وَفَتْحٌ قَرِيبٌ وَبَشِّرِ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ
"He will forgive for you your sins and admit you to gardens beneath which rivers flow and pleasant dwellings in gardens of perpetual residence. That is the great attainment. And [He will give] another [favor] which you love - victory from Allah and an imminent conquest; and give good tidings to the believers." (Surah As-Saff [61]: 12-13)
1st of Rabi' al-Awwal 1442 AH
18/10/2020 AD