Question:
On 17/03/2019, Sky News published an article titled "Within days... Algeria's protests reach the authority's 'painful nerve'," stating: "The head of the largest independent trade union federation in Algeria said he had taken legal steps to implement a general strike in the energy sectors, including oil and gas, over the next few few days..." On 11/03/2019, Bouteflika had withdrawn his candidacy, but he canceled the scheduled election date of April 18 and announced a project for a national conference to set a new election date. However, the people rejected this, considering it an extension of his current fourth term, and millions took to the streets on Friday, 15/03/2019, marking the largest mobilization since the protests began on 22/02/2019. The questions are: Are these powerful protests, especially if the oil strike occurs, home-grown, or are there international hands involved? Furthermore, will they result in a change in the Algerian political landscape? And will Bouteflika, despite these protests, continue to rule for another year as per his recent decisions?
Answer:
The course of events and the role of international players can be reviewed to reach answers to these questions as follows:
It appears that the protests were natural and spontaneous by the people due to the oppression overshadowing them and the corruption of the authority, the regime, and its officials. This includes the looting of public funds while leaving the people to suffer from poverty and deprivation. Their living conditions worsened and their problems escalated across various levels. Bouteflika became tyrannical in his rule to the point that he amended the constitution in 2008, removing the term limit of two presidential terms, which enabled him to hold power four consecutive times. He sought a fifth term despite the deterioration of his health after suffering a stroke in 2013, which left him without sufficient capacity for normal movement or proper speech. Despite this, on the third of this month, it was officially announced that his candidacy papers were submitted. Consequently, the people erupted in anger, and protests escalated across various sectors in a peaceful manner.
As a means of deceiving the people, Bouteflika addressed a message to the people on 11/03/2019, announcing the following decisions: "First: There is no place for a fifth term; indeed, I never intended to seek it, as my health condition and age only allow me to perform my final duty toward the Algerian people, which is to work on establishing a new republic that serves as the framework for the Algerian system we aspire to... Second: No presidential election will be held on the coming April 18, with the aim of responding to the urgent demand you addressed to me... Third: I have decided to make significant adjustments to the government formation as soon as possible... Fourth: The Independent National Inclusive Conference will be a body possessing all the necessary powers to study, prepare, and adopt all types of reforms that will constitute the foundations of the new system and appoint a pluralistic presidential body... ensuring its term ends before the end of 2019... Fifth: The presidential election will be organized following the National Inclusive Conference" (Radio Algeria, 11/03/2019). This message provoked the people even further, as he tried to court them and claimed he never intended to run even though he had! The people understood that Bouteflika wanted to extend his fourth term through deception and that he canceled the elections to consolidate the influence of his corrupt clique.
Under street pressure, Bouteflika announced the dismissal of Ahmed Ouyahia's government as part of his decisions on 11/03/2019 to show that he would bring about change in the country and fight corruption—as if the people would be satisfied if he deceptively replaced one of his corrupt tools with another of the same kind! However, it seems the people are aware of these deceptions; thus, their mobilization escalated on the following Friday, 15/03/2019. Consequently, his decisions to appoint Noureddine Bedoui as Prime Minister and Ramtane Lamamra as Deputy Prime Minister while retaining the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were of no avail. Both tried to deceive the people with President Bouteflika's decisions; Noureddine Bedoui mentioned in a joint press conference with his deputy on 14/03/2019 that "the transitional period will not exceed one year, and the President's postponement of the elections came in response to the people's will, and consultations are underway to form a government of experts," and he called for the establishment of a new state of law and invited the opposition to participate (Algerian TV, 14/03/2019). Ramtane Lamamra had stated the day before to the official Algerian Radio on 13/03/2019, saying: "Dialogue is necessary; our priority is to unite the Algerians. The new system will be based on the people's will." But the people are too aware to be deceived. It became evident that the people in Algeria are indeed conscious of this point, as they rejected all of it, insisted on the President's departure, rejected Bedoui and Lamamra, demanded their resignation, and refused the calls for dialogue, the delay of the President's stepping down, and the changing of faces. This rejection was clear when millions took to the streets and squares on Friday, 15/03/2019. The regime has fallen into a crisis and has begun making arrests!
It has become clear that the army supports Bouteflika and his authority. Ahmed Gaid Salah, the Algerian Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of Staff, known for his intense loyalty to Bouteflika, threatened the protesters, saying: "There are those who want to return the country to the years of pain and embers." He pledged that "the army will remain in control of the reins of security and stability." He added, "There are parties who are disturbed to see Algeria safe and stable; rather, they want to return to the years of pain and years of embers" (Asharq Al-Awsat, BBC, 05/03/2019). He had also threatened on February 26 to use force against the protesters, whom he described as misled, and condemned the unknown parties calling for street demonstrations. However, the Ministry of Defense backtracked and asked all media outlets not to publish his threats. He then began to court the people, saying: "I never tire of taking pride in the greatness of the relationship and trust that binds the people to their army. Based on these good relations, the people are sincere, loyal, and aware of the implications of what I say" (Sky News, 13/03/2019). It is well known that the army is what controls the country, and Bouteflika was able to remove the previous commanders loyal to France and bring in loyalists to him. Thus, it appears that the army and security commanders have become loyal to Bouteflika's British line. We saw the BBC on 08/03/2019 describing the army chief, Ahmed Gaid Salah, and presenting him in a positive light, saying: "Many have considered Lieutenant General Ahmed Gaid Salah since then (September 2013), when he was promoted to Deputy Minister of Defense while retaining the position of Chief of Staff of the Algerian Army, as Bouteflika's right hand. It was reported that the previous intelligence leadership, headed by Mediène (General Toufik), sought to overthrow the President while he was in France for treatment... but after Gaid's promotion, he was able to overthrow many senior intelligence officers." Bouteflika had removed General Toufik from the head of the Intelligence Service (DRS) on 13/09/2015.
Thus, the protests began spontaneously, but after their outbreak, international hands began trying to exploit them and intervene in a way that serves their interests. Before explaining this, I will mention some of what appeared in our publication on 23/09/2015, where we presented the reality of the international conflict in Algeria, saying: "It is a significant state that resisted America's plans more strongly than its neighbor. Since Boumediene's coup against Ben Bella, who was following the American line with Abdel Nasser, British influence has been entrenched in Algeria, with some French protrusions that intensified at times, especially during the era of some weak presidents... Boumediene continued in power from 19/06/1965 until his death on 27/12/1978... after that, Bouteflika has been the President since 1999 until today. Bouteflika still maintains a close relationship with Britain, crowning this with a visit to Britain in 2006, the first visit by an Algerian president to Britain... Although the French group in the Algerian army, who are influential to some extent, are aware of Bouteflika's relationship with Britain and also realize that Bouteflika was not in harmony with French policy... yet those loyal to France in the army have not been able to stop his presidency to this day! While Britain did not fear France's influence in Algeria as much as it feared America's, it decided to end those French protrusions to strengthen its influence. However, it proceeded with this gradually because it is not in a conflict with France; rather, the conflict is with America. Therefore, those changes of officers loyal to France passed without heating up the atmosphere as if there were a conflict! Even when Bouteflika relieved a high-ranking officer with French leanings—the Director of General Intelligence Services, Mohamed Lamine Mediène, known as General Toufik—on 13/09/2015, it was done without any heat or impact on the structure of the regime! It can be said that Bouteflika succeeded to some extent in these dismissals with British support, although there is still a place for France in the army, as the army's culture and training are mostly from France... but as we said, Bouteflika's 'conflict' with the army was soft, carried out calmly, closer to a sporting competition, and did not affect the basic issues of the regime..." (End quote).
We also mentioned in the publication: "This differs from the real conflict with America and its plans in Algeria regarding political acquisition... For example:
a- After Spain's exit from the Sahara in 1976 after 91 years of colonialism, America found an opportunity in the Polisario movement for the independence of the Sahara and used it as a pretext to intervene in North Africa, especially Algeria... but the rule in Algeria (Britain) was attentive to the issue, so it confined the Polisario to a strip at the border and surrounded it with its eyes because it realized that America had infiltrations within it... Despite America's dominance over UN missions and its delegates regarding the Sahara, it was not able to seize influence in Algeria.
b- America tried to establish a base in Algeria for the forces it created under the pretext of fighting terrorism, the so-called 'Africom' forces. However, Algeria refused because it, and Britain behind it, realized that this American base was for intervention in Algeria's affairs. Therefore, the Algerian Foreign Ministry stated on 03/03/2007: 'Algeria is not concerned with hosting the headquarters of the American Special Forces for Africa (Africom).'
c- America tried to stir up the fight against terrorism, exploiting the events in Mali on 22/03/2012, and visits occurred between it and Algeria to involve Algeria in cooperation with America in counter-terrorism under the pretext that it might reach Algeria. Nevertheless, Algeria (and Britain behind it) refused America's plan. The most prominent of these visits was Hillary Clinton's visit and her meeting with Bouteflika on 29/10/2012." (End quote).
- It is clear from this that international relations between Britain and France in the current circumstances are almost closer to competition with a sporting spirit, but between America and Britain, they are closer to a hot international conflict. This situation is still present; America and France are both trying to exploit the protests, hoping that each can have its agents lead the people and then infiltrate the government to replace Britain's agents, albeit with different methodologies:
- As for America: It announced through its State Department spokesperson, Robert Palladino, on 05/03/2019: "We are monitoring these demonstrations in Algeria and will continue to do so. The United States supports the Algerian people and their right to peaceful protest" (BBC, 06/03/2019). This was the first reaction from America to the events in Algeria, indicating that America wants to exploit these demonstrations for its benefit. After Bouteflika's decisions regarding the cancellation of elections, America announced through Robert Palladino: "We support efforts in Algeria to chart a new path forward through a dialogue that reflects the will of all Algerians and their hopes for a safe and prosperous future. We respect the right of Algerians to demonstrate and peacefully express their positions, and we are closely following reports of the postponement of elections. We also support the right of the Algerian people to choose through free and fair elections" (Reuters, Echorouk Online, 12/03/2019). However, the American spokesperson did not comment on Bouteflika's decisions; thus, America ignored them, giving the impression that its position does not support these decisions and that it rejects the cancellation of elections.
It was apparent that American newspapers, following Bouteflika's decisions, stood against him and his decisions. The New York Times discussed the opposition's position and their skepticism regarding President Bouteflika's intentions, describing his message to the protesters as a trick. Meanwhile, the Washington Post warned of President Bouteflika's unannounced attempt to extend his term and evade handing over power to his successor. Thus, America's position appears to be against Bouteflika, and it is working to exploit the protests to infiltrate and extend its influence in Algeria, as it has worked on this as we indicated above and continues to exert effort to exploit every event, as it does in every country. It does not do this out of concern for the people, for it has worked to crush them in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, whether through direct intervention, coups, or by making partner or agent states intervene by proxy on its behalf.
- As for the French position: It was vacillating, sometimes with Bouteflika and sometimes against him. It is trying to seize an opportunity to infiltrate without challenging Britain. France followed what was happening in Algeria with interest as if it were an internal event, as it considers itself a guardian over its former colonies! The French Foreign Ministry announced on 04/03/2019: "Paris has learned of the decision of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to run in the presidential elections scheduled for April and hopes that the vote will take place in the best possible conditions." It said: "The decision is in the hands of the Algerian people as to whom they will choose as their leader... and the decision is in the hands of the Algerian people regarding their future" (Reuters, 04/03/2019). The French Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne, stated to Radio France Internationale on 05/03/2019: "The Algerian authorities are called upon to allow the youth to demonstrate; France finds that the youth are expressing themselves calmly—let them express themselves." However, when Bouteflika issued his decisions, French President Macron welcomed them, saying: "President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's decision to withdraw from seeking a fifth term opens a new chapter in Algeria's history," and he called for a "transitional period of a reasonable duration," saying: "We will do everything we can to be with Algeria in this transitional stage with friendship and respect." The French Foreign Minister, Le Drian, also welcomed Bouteflika's step and the measures he took to modernize the Algerian political system (Radio Algeria, 12/03/2019).
Here it appears that France is seemingly supporting the protest movement while simultaneously not wanting to provoke Bouteflika, so it welcomes his decisions! This is because it proceeds from two matters: it wants to intervene in an easy way that does not provoke the authority, and second, it does not want to appear as if it is on the American side against Bouteflika. As part of Europe, if necessary and if it cannot replace Britain in Algeria, it prefers the continuation of British influence in Algeria over American influence.
As for the French press, France 24 reported on 02/03/2019 comments from French newspapers, quoting the French newspaper Libération: "The Algerian youth are thirsty for social justice and want change, especially among those who have known no president in their lives other than Bouteflika." It said: "The Algerian youth no longer understand why they must bear the consequences of a past they do not know; this youth, full of vitality and activity, deserves more than the political dominance imposed on them by a regime hiding behind an unreal president." As for the daily Le Figaro (Right-wing), it headlined the page it dedicated to the demonstrations in Algeria "A massive wave against the Algerian regime" and pointed to "the participation of some political and partisan figures in the demonstration, such as Ali Benflis, head of the Talaie El Houriat party, Rachid Nekkaz, a candidate for the upcoming elections, Ahmed Benbitour, former Prime Minister, and Abdelaziz Rahabi, Minister of Culture who resigned from his post during the first term of Abdelaziz Bouteflika" (Quoted from France 24 on 02/03/2019).
As for Britain, no official statement has been issued by it. The BBC does not focus on the protests but rather passes over them dismissively. British newspapers do not criticize Bouteflika's measures nor support the protesters. This indicates that Britain is with Bouteflika and supports him and does not want him to fall. Therefore, it has not worked to stir up the people through its media or magnify the events and focus on them as it did with the protests in Egypt, Turkey, and Sudan, where it focused on opposition movements, their statements, and prominent figures—especially those loyal to it—and criticized the regimes' actions and their suppression. This has not appeared regarding Algeria. This confirms that Britain, the holder of political influence in Algeria, is reassured by the actions of Bouteflika and his clique. According to its wicked policy, it pretends as if the matter does not concern it, so it does not appear in the foreground, out of the maliciousness of its policy to preserve its agents!
The most likely conclusion regarding the questions raised is:
a- The protests were spontaneous and natural, a reaction to political and economic injustice, where Bouteflika and his clique monopolize power and wealth. He and they amend the constitution to fit their size. Despite his failing health and his inability to move or speak, he extends his fourth term instead of the fifth! He and his clique are accused of corruption and embezzlement of funds, while the people suffer from a life of hardship, including poverty, high prices, unemployment, and the inability to buy basic and necessary needs—what is called the weakness of the people's purchasing power—even though the country is rich in resources, especially oil and gas. Foreign companies, in cooperation with those in charge of the regime and Bouteflika's entourage, loot them while the people burn in the misery and hardship of life.
b- Bouteflika is determined not to be absent from the scene unless death forces him, and the army supports him, as does the British-aligned political class. Since Britain is the holder of political influence, it wants to preserve the regime and its men. The fact that the regime is composed of British loyalists is important for it in North Africa in the face of America. Thus, Algeria stands against Haftar, America's agent in Libya, and works to contain the American-supported Polisario Front.
c- France has colonial interests in Algeria—political, cultural, and economic—and is still tickled by the feelings of the old colonialism of Algeria. It has agreed with Britain, which has expanded its political influence there since Boumediene's coup in 1965, to stand in the face of America, which competes with them for colonialism and expansion of influence. It also agreed with it to stand against the Muslim people of the country who seek liberation from the yoke of Western colonialism in all its states and forms, who yearn for Islam and the establishment of its state and its application, as most of the people know that justice is in Islam, truth is in it, and goodness is in it, and nothing else is justice or goodness. Those loyal to France orchestrated a coup in 1992, brought evil and corruption, and killed hundreds of thousands, like their mistress France, which killed a million and a half of the people of Algeria in the war of liberation. In any case, some of France's men participated in the protests and rode their wave, but as we said, with caution.
d- America is working to enter Algeria by exploiting Algeria's circumstances and the protests. it claims to be against injustice and tyranny and to support the people's rights, even though it does not care about injustice, oppression, or tyranny; rather, it sponsors them all over the world and supports tyrannical and oppressive regimes, especially in Islamic lands, including Arab countries, where it supported the regime of Salman and his son in Saudi Arabia, Sisi's regime in Egypt, and the Iraqi regime directly, and the Syrian regime indirectly through its partners and agents. Its concern is not to support the Algerian people; rather, America wants to establish a base in Algeria for its Africom forces to extend its influence there and in North Africa specifically, and to head from there toward the Sub-Saharan and West Africa where French influence exists, to replace it. It is annoyed by Algeria's opposition to its agent Haftar, who wants to control western Libya, in addition to its ambitions to control Algeria's resources.
e- As for the people in Algeria, they have awareness of what is happening, and among their chants was: "No Washington, No Paris, we are the ones who choose the President." This indicates that the people realize foreign interventions and their goals; they have awareness of that. The people have experience with agents and their crimes and realize the role of colonial countries and their standing behind the regime, agents, and the corrupt. They are seeking change earnestly and yearn for the return of Islam; they elected those who said "we will return Islam to rule" in 1991 by a margin of 84%. The emergence of Islamic sentiments among the people was clear with the marches coming out of the mosques after Friday prayers, and the secularists participating in the protests submitted to that when they saw the massive influx of Muslims to prayer in the mosques.
f- As for what is expected as a result of this movement, the active political class in Algeria holding the decision-making centers is, in its majority, loyal to Britain. As for France's men, they have weakened and decreased, as Bouteflika, during his rule exceeding twenty years, was able to exclude most of them from sensitive positions and decision-making centers. The most they aspire to now is not to replace Britain's agents in power but to participate with them in some non-essential positions. Even this depends on the extent of their success in exploiting the ongoing protests by riding their wave to give them weight.
As for America, it lacks a political class that can be pointed to, and as is its custom in such cases, it resorts to the army, which is currently supporting the regime.
That is, the current protests are not likely to change the political loyalty of the regime from Britain to France or America.
g- As for whether Bouteflika continues or not, he currently does not rule effectively; rather, the clique surrounding him, who are loyal like him to Britain, manages the rule. It is not unlikely, if the protests increase, especially with the expectation of an oil and gas strike, that Britain will resort to its usual method of malice, cunning, and deception. It may resort to removing Bouteflika, whose color has changed and who has rusted, and Britain will bring another Bouteflika with a new, shinier face and a sharper tongue!
h- But all of this will not alleviate the tragedy nor remove the hardship of life as long as the regime is far from Allah and His Messenger and refers to the Western capitalist systems, the source of evil and corruption. Rather, what solves the problem and removes the tragedy is referring to the Sharia of Allah the Almighty. It was the duty of the protesters—the vast majority of whom are Muslims—to make their cause Islam and the Islamic State, the "Khilafah upon the method of the Prophethood." In this is the glory of this world and the Hereafter, the provision of a decent life, and the spread of justice and goodness throughout the country; there would be no misery or hardship, but rather glory in this world and success in the Hereafter.
فَمَنِ اتَّبَعَ هُدَايَ فَلَا يَضِلُّ وَلَا يَشْقَى * وَمَنْ أَعْرَضَ عَنْ ذِكْرِي فَإِنَّ لَهُ مَعِيشَةً ضَنْكاً
"Then whoever follows My guidance will neither go astray [in the world] nor suffer [in the Hereafter]. And whoever turns away from My remembrance - indeed, he will have a depressed life." (QS Taha [20]: 123-124)
14th of Rajab 1440 AH
21/03/2019