Question:
The protests that broke out more than two months ago are still ongoing to this day. Are they spontaneous, resulting from the deteriorating economic conditions? Or are the reasons for the demonstrations in Sudan the tension in relations between Khartoum and Washington after the visit of the US Deputy Secretary of State, John Sullivan, to Khartoum in November 2017? It has been suggested that among the matters he raised in his talks with the Sudanese side was the issue of not re-nominating Bashir in the 2020 elections, and that Bashir became tense as a result and traveled to Russia to spite America, agreeing to military bases for them... Does this mean that America has decided to change Bashir and therefore tightened the economic noose on Sudan, preventing its agents, especially Saudi Arabia, from helping Sudan? Furthermore, what is the explanation for Sadiq al-Mahdi's support for the protests; does it mean that the British have a hand in them? Pardon the length of the question... and may Allah reward you with good.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, the following points must be reviewed:
Yes, the US Deputy Secretary of State, John Sullivan, visited Sudan on 16/11/2017, and met with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Finance, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, and representatives from the Sudanese Ministry of Interior and the National Security and Intelligence Service, in addition to the Chargé d'Affaires of the Sudan Embassy in America. He also met with a number of religious leaders in a closed session, then gave a lecture at the Martyr's Hall of the University of the Holy Quran, speaking about US policy toward Sudan. (According to leaks published by the Sudan Times website, the American official requested in this meeting that the Sudanese government review, amend, or cancel a number of laws, most notably those that speak of the death penalty for apostates. He also called for "canceling the article on dress in the Public Order Law, which punishes women with flogging for wearing immodest clothing according to the vision of the law enforcement officers from the police," and called for "maintaining religious freedom for everyone when drafting Sudan's new constitution"... Sudan Tribune 18/11/2017).
It is also true that some leaks mentioned that Sullivan asked Bashir not to run for the 2020 elections and that Bashir was not pleased with that, and then a tension in relations occurred... But this is unlikely because Bashir cannot oppose the instructions of his master, America; he only runs if America wants that... Even if we assume that he rejected America's instructions and insisted on his re-nomination in the 2020 elections and remaining in power, America would have carried out a coup against him to remove him just as it brought him in the coup of 30/06/1989... This is while knowing that when it was circulated on social media sites that the American official asked Bashir not to run for the 2020 elections, the Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour denied it, saying: "The United States did not impose any conditions requiring that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir not run for the elections scheduled for 2020 in exchange for removing Sudan's name from the list of state sponsors of terrorism." He said: "All we discussed with John Sullivan, the US Deputy Secretary of State, during his recent visit to Khartoum were issues related to human rights and religious freedoms... Al-Quds Al-Arabi 14/11/2017). Furthermore, the visit indicates harmony rather than tension; Sullivan met with various sectors of the state during this visit with cheering and welcome! It came after the US administration lifted the travel ban on Sudanese citizens on 26/09/2017, as well as after lifting some economic sanctions that had lasted about 20 years on Sudan on 06/10/2017... Therefore, the visit was not to discuss the nomination, but the main purpose of that visit was to remove Sudan's name from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism." Therefore, America set some conditions for removing Sudan's name from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism" as previously mentioned above in the Sudan Tribune website. On the other hand, ten days before Sullivan's visit to Sudan, Bashir renewed his previous pledges not to run, (Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir renewed, on Monday, his previous pledges to give up power in the country at the end of his second presidential term in 2020... Bashir's words came in a speech before a youth crowd on the occasion of the seventh general conference of the non-governmental National Union of Sudanese Youth in Khartoum... Al-Khaleej Online 06/11/2017). Although it is not difficult to break pledges in such countries, the American statements and contacts with Sudan make it unlikely that the purpose of the visit was to prevent Bashir from running. Contacts between America and Sudan continued after the visit and after the start of the protests, to remove its name from the list of state sponsors of "terrorism" since 1993, because this continued after the Trump administration canceled the economic and trade sanctions it had imposed on Sudan since 1997. America required for the completion of the second phase regarding the removal of the name that Sudan expand its cooperation in "fighting terrorism" and promote human rights and religious and political freedoms... etc.
Likewise, Sullivan's visit on 16/11/2017 was not the motivation for the protests that broke out on 19/12/2018 because the American position after the visit and during the protests was on the side of the regime and not on the side of the protests, and the contacts and statements indicate that... On Sunday, 17/02/2019, Cyril Sartor, Special Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Africa, arrived in Khartoum, accompanied by Darren Seirail, Director of the Africa Department at the National Security Council. He concluded his talks in Sudan on Wednesday, 20/02/2019. In one of his statements, the US Special Assistant said after the meeting at the Republican Palace ("I held a fruitful and constructive meeting with the Assistant to the President of the Republic and I came to continue the dialogue between the two sides leading to the removal of Sudan's name from the state sponsors of terrorism." Cyril stressed that "with more patience, the government will be able to find a political solution and that no solutions will be imposed from outside on Sudan, noting that through joint work, the two countries will find their way to a strong partnership... Shorouk News 18/02/2019)... All of this shows that the visit was not the motivation for the protests; rather, it indicates American support for Bashir's rule, the non-imposition of any solution from outside... and the setting of American conditions to remove Sudan's name from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism."
As for the position of America's agents, it was also supportive of the rule and not the protests, i.e., not as stated in the question... The following is an explanation of that:
a. As for Saudi Arabia... since the start of the coalition's military operation in Yemen, it has continued to pump new investments in the fields of Sudanese agriculture:
- (Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab investor in Sudan during the year 2016, with investments estimated at about 15 billion dollars, and those investments are concentrated on fodder, wheat, and corn; it supports Khartoum's economy... Al-Khaleej Online 17/07/2017)... The Kingdom's ambassador confirmed (that the value of actual Saudi investments in Sudan exceeded 12 billion dollars... Al-Bawaba website 03/12/2018)... Likewise (Sudan announced on Monday 07/05/2018 that it had reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia to supply it with oil for five years... Sudan Tribune 07/05/2018).
- A Saudi ministerial delegation visited Khartoum on 24/01/2019 and held talks with Sudanese President Bashir discussing the situation Sudan is going through. Saudi Minister of Commerce Majid Al-Qasabi said in a press statement: ("The delegation's visit to Sudan came under the direction of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz to strengthen economic relations with Sudan and increase trade exchange," adding "that King Salman stressed that Sudan's security is security for the Kingdom, and its stability is stability for it, and that Sudan is more deserving of any relationship with it than any other country"... Al-Watan Al-Masriya 26/01/2019). All of this confirms that Saudi Arabia did not abandon its support for Sudan.
b. As for Egypt, the other pillar... Bashir visited Egypt on 27/01/2019 and Sisi welcomed him at the airport and showed hospitality to him. This indicates that America did not decide to remove Bashir, otherwise Sisi would not have done that, as he is reliant on America and follows it. The Sudan ambassador to Egypt described the visit as ("The visit is considered the most important of visits in terms of timing and content"... Al-Sabah Al-Masriya 27/01/2019). Note that Bashir visited Egypt and met Sisi on 06/11/2018 after Sisi's visit to Sudan on 25/10/2018 accompanied by 12 ministers and signed 12 agreements... Immediately after the outbreak of the protests, Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and its intelligence chief visited Sudan and met with Omar al-Bashir and their counterparts. Shoukry said after the meeting: "Egypt is confident that Sudan will overcome the current circumstances. Egypt is always ready to provide support and assistance to Sudan. The security and stability of Sudan is part of the security and stability of Egypt"... Al-Bawaba Al-Masriya 27/12/2018). This indicates that Egypt still supports Sudan.
c. Internally, the most important local American power is the army, and the Sudanese army's position on the protests was on the side of Bashir and protecting his regime. The army announced in a statement ("its rallying around its leadership and its keenness on the people's gains and the security and safety of the citizen in his blood, honor, and money"... Arabi Post 23/12/2018). The Chief of Staff of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Kamal Abdul-Ma'rouf, said in his address to officers with the ranks of Brigadier and Colonel ("The army will not hand over the country to the scum of the earth from the defeated rebellion leaders, and agents of suspicious organizations abroad"... Misr Al-Arabiya 30/01/2018). This indicates that the army still supports Bashir, and such was the position of other military and security sectors: (Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti', commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, threatened that his forces are ready to confront those he described as greedy... Al-Masirah Net 26/12/2018). Likewise (Director of the Sudanese Security and Intelligence Service Salah Gosh said in a brief statement in Parliament, "There are many initiatives in the arena, but everyone must know that any initiative that goes outside the existing legitimacy has no place"... Al-Jazeera Net 21/02/2019). America uses the army to carry out coups, and it has been concentrated in it since the Nimeiry coup in 1969...
As for the opposition, ("Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the Umma Party, on the fourth day of the protests, called for the formation of a new consensus government in which all parties participate." He said that he "supports the popular protests in the country, but he stressed that his party will not participate in them"... BBC 22/12/2018). But when he saw the continuation of the protests, he announced his adoption of them (Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the National Umma Party and head of the "Sudan Call" alliance, announced his support for the popular movement calling for the overthrow of the regime, and called for an end to the killing of protesters before demanding that President Omar al-Bashir step down... Sudan Tribune 25/01/2019), that is, more than a month after the protests, trying to exploit them later... Sadiq al-Mahdi is known for his loyalty to the British; he headed the Sudanese government between 1986 and 1989, and he is the one whom Bashir overthrew later. Then the Sudanese Professionals Association emerged as a parallel organization to the official government-loyal unions. This Professionals Association is influenced by Europe through Mahdi and is an attempt to be the alternative to the official unions controlled by the regime. Its leaders who are abroad reside in Europe (among its leaders abroad who speak in its name are journalist Mohamed Al-Asbat in France and Dr. Sara Abdel Jalil in Britain. BBC website 24/01/2019). Secular trends and other marginal movements also permeated the protests, which are not influential in change... Although British influence permeates these gatherings, especially in Sadiq al-Mahdi's party, this influence is unable to effect actual change. However, the continuation of the protests gives it strength due to the British experience in exploiting protests. Therefore, the Mahdi party's announcement of support for the protests was delayed for about a month, thinking that Bashir would suppress them in their first days, but when they extended, he rode the wave! Then, after more than two months, Mahdi's position strengthened and he emphasized Bashir's resignation (and expressed his readiness to meet with opposition representatives to agree on the details of crossing towards the new system... Sputnik 02/03/2019). Thus, the longer the regime's inability to stop the protests, the stronger the British agents become. Therefore, America took this matter into account; as a precaution for any emergency, America arranged with Bashir to infiltrate these gatherings through the withdrawal of some political parties participating in the government, so that they become the opposition: (Head of the Umma Party Mubarak al-Fadil announced the dissolution of his party's partnership with the ruling National Congress and its withdrawal from the government... Al-Nilin website 28/12/2018). Likewise, the withdrawal of Ghazi Salahuddin: (The Reform Now Movement decided to withdraw all its representatives in the legislative councils during a press conference in which its head Ghazi Salahuddin spoke... Sawa News Agency 01/01/2019). Ghazi Salah was elected head of the National Front for Change ("The General Assembly of the National Front for Change yesterday elected Dr. Ghazi Salahuddin as head of the Presidential Council of the Front"... Al-Khaleej 365 14/02/2019). In addition to this infiltration, and in anticipation of the escalation of protests and Europe's exploitation of them, it gave the green light to Bashir to impose a state of emergency, which was imposed on 22/02/2019... Most recently on 28/02/2019, Mirghani's party withdrew from the government, which is known for its relations with America (The Democratic Unionist Party led by Mohamed Osman al-Mirghani announced on Thursday the termination of all partnership agreements in power that it signed with the ruling National Congress Party and withdrawal from the Sudanese government"... Al-Ain News 28/02/2019)... Then there was the new step to calm the opposition by Bashir announcing himself as neutral, not with one side against another! (The Sudanese President delegated his powers as head of the National Congress Party to his deputy in a flight forward as his options narrowed in the face of the worst crisis during three decades of his rule... The party said in the statement that this decision comes "in fulfillment of what was stated in the President's speech to the nation that he stands at the same distance from all political forces." Middle East Online 01/03/2019). Bashir, by this, is deceiving himself before deceiving others. How can he be neutral when he is the head of state, and his party is the ruling party? Even if he assigned someone else to head the party, it would be no more than a formality?!
In any case, it is one of the methods to calm the protests! All of this is to try to influence the opposition and contain the protests, especially since the regime now has forces that have infiltrated the opposition. If these forces cannot contain them, they will try to lead them or participate effectively in their leadership, and thus American hegemony continues...
As for Bashir's visit to Moscow, which lasted for 4 days on 22/11/2017, i.e., six days after Sullivan's visit to Sudan, that visit was not carried out by Bashir to complain about America to Russia; rather, it came by order and consent from America. The proof for that (A Sudanese newspaper revealed, today, Wednesday, a deal between Khartoum and Washington, providing for securing the path of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's plane to Russia in exchange for accepting the cancellation of controversial laws objected to by the US administration, coinciding with the start of Bashir's first visit to Moscow. Informed sources told Al-Rakoba newspaper that the Sudanese regime obtained guarantees from US Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan, during his visit to Khartoum, not to intercept Bashir's plane in exchange for passing American proposals to allow religious freedoms and cancel controversial legal articles related to "apostasy, inheritance, and indecent dress"... Masrawy 22/11/2017). This is because if it were not by order from America, Bashir would not have been able to use Saudi airspace, as the colonial state to which the Saudi regime is loyal influences control of the airspace. This happened during the era of King Abdullah, the agent of England, in 2013; Britain did not want Bashir to reach Iran because it did not want the Iranian regime to gain fame with the arrival of many presidents for the president's inauguration ceremony. Therefore, Saudi Arabia prevented Bashir's plane according to Britain's desire (The Sudanese presidency announced that Saudi Arabia prevented the President's plane on Sunday from crossing its airspace to attend the Iranian President's swearing-in ceremony in Tehran, forcing him to turn back... France24 04/08/2013).
All of the above makes it unlikely that America is behind the protests... and Britain does not have the ability to launch them... So how did they start and continue?
The answer to this is that the protests broke out spontaneously due to the escalating crisis of people's livelihoods in Sudan, and the matter in its entirety is as follows:
b. The poverty rate among the population of Sudan reached record levels; the Central Bureau of Statistics confirmed ("that the poverty rate exceeds two-thirds of the population based on the results of a survey conducted in 2014 as the first study since the separation of South Sudan in 2011"). All of this happens after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its recommendations, or rather its orders as it does everywhere, as it demanded the government to float the currency and lift subsidies on fuel, electricity, and wheat, promising with the World Bank to provide technical assistance to Sudan in implementing the economic reform program! This pledge came in a meeting of the IMF and the World Bank on the sidelines of meetings in Bali, Indonesia, in October 2018. Note that the IMF demanded the government to float the pound in its annual report prepared in December 2017 and stressed that this is necessary to create the conditions to attract investors and promote economic development in the country. It also demanded the government to cancel subsidies on electricity and wheat between 2019 and 2021 after floating the currency. The Sudanese regime's compliance with these orders led it to the deterioration of the economic and living conditions of the people. c. Thus, the conditions in Sudan became ready for explosion, so this coming out to the street was spontaneous due to the spread of poverty, rising prices, high cost of living, increased unemployment, and poor distribution of wealth. All of this is because Bashir applied the capitalist system and followed the recommendations of its financial institutions from the IMF and the World Bank, and because of his submission to American pressure. He is an agent regime for America and implements its policy, especially the separation of the South and the state's loss of its large income from oil (following the separation of South Sudan in 2011, Khartoum lost three-quarters of its oil resources, which were pumping about 80% of foreign currency resources into its treasury. Al-Jazeera Net 26/12/2018), so the hardship of living escalated for the people... Then the spark of the Sudanese revolution broke out in the north of the country in the River Nile State in the city of Atbara on 19/12/2018, then it spread to all the cities of Sudan, and it is still ongoing, its fires have not been extinguished, and they have only one demand: the departure of the regime...
a. Bashir and those with him deluded themselves into thinking that by giving up South Sudan in implementation of America's orders, Sudan would live in luxury and security and America would support it after lifting the sanctions... but the opposite happened as the economic situation began to deteriorate more and become distressed. The crisis intensified at the beginning of 2018 and after the lifting of American sanctions on Sudan! The government raised bread prices and increased the value of the customs dollar threefold, and the value of the local currency fell, leading to price increases followed by fuel crises... Bread prices doubled until it became rare; one stands for long hours in a long queue to get a loaf of bread whose price has risen beyond what people can bear... The inflation rate reached about 70%, and the Central Bank withheld funds from banks in an attempt to stop its fall and the rise in the price of the dollar until it was forced to lower the currency value by more than 60% to make the price of the dollar 47.50 pounds, and it decreased until on 20/02/2019 in the parallel market (free market) it became 75 pounds against the dollar...
Thus, the protests started spontaneously and then forces intervened to exploit them for their side to achieve the interests of those forces and divert the protests from their path as we explained above.
- In conclusion, there are two matters worthy of reflection and deep consideration:
The first is that the first thing America imposes on its agents is to exert their utmost effort in serving its interests, and Bashir has exerted effort in that to the extent that he betrayed his oath and separated the South from Sudan... Even today, America is still supporting Bashir; its contacts with him and his regime, as we have shown, indicate that... But if the protests continue and Bashir is unable to control them soon, he will fall from America's eyes and then become unable to serve America in its interests. At that point, it is likely that America will seek to change him. Perhaps arranging the withdrawal of some of its men from the government to ride the wave of opposition, especially the Mirghani party loyal to it... perhaps all of this is moving in this direction, i.e., preparing the alternative. Because any change for Bashir requires the existence of an alternative acceptable to the people, and America uses this method with its agents. It used it with Mubarak; when he could not control the protests, it ordered him to leave, so he resigned and assigned Tantawi and his military council in his place... It is a habitual method for America; it only needs the alternative before ordering its agent to leave. It fears that if the change is before the alternative is matured, sincere and loyal men will reach power who would be a thorn in its throat, rather a dagger in its chest. Keeping its agent Bashar until now is from this door...
As for the second matter, what is feared is that the blood of the killed and wounded and those losses in the streets and public utilities will be wasted, and the protests will eventually lead to replacing one agent with another while the man-made constitution remains standing in the country, taking lives and exhausting the people... This is what we warn against because the protests until today do not adopt the demands of Islam nor do they demand putting the laws of Sharia into practice by following a righteous and sincere leadership that works to resume the Islamic way of life by establishing the Rightly Guided Khilafah... Consequently, the political crisis remains the same, rather it may be worse, and the economic crisis remains the same, rather it may be worse. The word of Allah is the clear truth:
فَمَنِ اتَّبَعَ هُدَايَ فَلَا يَضِلُّ وَلَا يَشْقَى * وَمَنْ أَعْرَضَ عَنْ ذِكْرِي فَإِنَّ لَهُ مَعِيشَةً ضَنْكاً
"Then whoever follows My guidance will neither go astray [in this world] nor suffer [in the Hereafter]. And whoever turns away from My remembrance - indeed, he will have a depressed life." (QS Taha [20]: 123-124)
And Allah, the All-Knowing, the All-Wise, spoke the truth:
فَاعْتَبِرُوا يَاأُولِي الْأَبْصَارِ
"So take warning, O people of vision." (QS Al-Hashr [59]: 2)
27th of Jumada al-Akhira 1440 AH 04/03/2019 CE