Question:
All indicators suggest that the current Ukraine crisis is, in reality, a crisis for Russia with the West and not merely a dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Some compare it to Nazi Germany's occupation of Czechoslovakia piece by piece in 1939, then Poland, until World War II broke out... Could Russia's attack on Ukraine on 2022/2/24 and its continuation until today lead to a world war? Are the reactions from America and Europe, by imposing sanctions without military intervention, appropriate for this attack? Or is it a lure for Russia to sink into the Ukrainian swamp? If so, what is the purpose of that? Thank you.
Answer:
To clarify the picture regarding these questions, we review the following matters:
First: Recent days have proven beyond a doubt that the Russian President suffers from megalomania and believes that Russia, in current international circumstances, can restore its international status as a superpower alongside America. He bitterly criticizes the improper way the West deals with Russia, denounces its marginalization in international issues, and slams the eastward advancement of NATO. He demands the removal of US military bases from countries that joined NATO after 1997—namely Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European countries. What clearly indicated this megalomania includes:
Putin received the leaders of France, Germany, and Iran in a diplomatically improper manner, as well as the President of Turkey shortly before that. Some were forced to wait for him for a period in halls filled with symbols of Russian victories. Russian security requested French President Macron to undergo a COVID test upon arrival at the airport, and Putin sat six meters away from them, whereas he did not do so with the presidents of Kazakhstan and Belarus who visited him during the same period. He even gestured to the German Chancellor to walk behind him as they left the press conference hall!
Putin's explicitly stated view of Ukraine is that it is not a state, that Russia gave it land to form a state, and supported it with $150 billion over decades. He described its rulers as those who occupy power in Kyiv. All this indicates that he sees nothing in the Eurasian region (the meeting point of Europe and Asia) except Russia. This view of the Eurasian region and Russia's center within it is what pushed him to deploy troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) into Kazakhstan during the uprising that occurred there at the beginning of 2022 to control it...
Putin did not care about insulting all European countries when he requested security guarantees for Russia in Europe from America, despite widespread initial criticism from France and some other countries that called for Europe's security to be in the hands of Europeans first. Putin did this because he sees himself as a peer to America, not to the European countries. When Macron offered mediation during his visit to Russia, Putin replied that France does not lead NATO...
Second: The Kremlin announced in a statement that Russian President Putin informed his French counterpart Macron on 2022/2/28 in a telephone call between them of Russia's conditions to stop the war, which are: "Recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the demilitarization of the Ukrainian state, its abandonment of Nazism, and ensuring its neutral status" (Agence France-Presse, 2022/2/28). We mentioned in a Question and Answer dated 2021/12/22 the following: "Thus, the current crisis reveals that Russia aims, first, not to have the status of Crimea as part of it questioned, but rather wants it to be a fait accompli with international American-European recognition. The second goal is for eastern Ukraine to be outside the authority of Ukraine and effectively part of Russia. The third and most influential goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, for which it needs guarantees." Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed this, saying: "His country's armed forces will continue the special military operation in Ukraine until it achieves its goals. Western countries must stop building military facilities in former Soviet Union countries that are not NATO members. The Western world is using the Ukrainian people in the fight against Russia. The important thing is to protect Russia from the military threat posed by Western countries" (Anadolu Agency, 2022/3/1). Hence, this crisis is one of the largest international crises that has arisen recently and will constitute a bitter struggle between Russia and the West. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia will stop until it achieves its goals; otherwise, its loss would be horrific... and it is unlikely that the West will accept these conditions... Therefore, the current circumstances have exacerbated the intensity of this crisis to the point of threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Russian presidential spokesman Peskov announced that "President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian strategic deterrence forces to be put on clear and explicit combat alert" (TASS, 2022/2/28), which includes defensive, not offensive, nuclear weapons. Strategic deterrence forces are divided into strategic offensive forces and strategic defensive forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it "placed the strategic missile forces, the Northern and Pacific Fleets, and strategic aviation on alert" (RIA Novosti, 2022/2/28). Russia, through its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, confirmed its demands by saying: "The achievement of legally binding security guarantees from NATO countries is of fundamental importance to Russia" (TASS, 2022/3/1). Therefore, there is no retreat from Russia regarding its goals in this case, unless the Ukrainians show fierce resistance and continue their resistance as the Afghan Mujahideen did against the Soviet Union in the 1980s...
Third: The American Position: It is clear that America exerted every effort to lure Russia into the Ukrainian swamp through deception and provocation:
America did not respond to Russia's demands for security guarantees and worked to involve it in Ukraine. It made the Ukrainian government provoke Russia by launching attacks in the east on the Donbas region. This provocation was increased by America's statements, such as Biden's remark during a press conference on 2022/1/19: "My guess is he (Putin) will move in, he has to do something. Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, but if they actually do what they're capable of doing... it's going to be a disaster for Russia" (CNN, 2022/1/20). Following this, an unnamed Ukrainian official told CNN: "Biden is giving the green light to Russian President Putin to enter Ukraine. Kyiv is in a state of shock over those statements"!
When the Russian military operation against Ukraine began, US President Biden announced that "America will not intervene if Russia intervenes in Ukraine, but if it intervenes in NATO countries, it will intervene," and announced "sending about 7,000 additional US troops to Germany." America had previously deployed about 5,000 US troops in Germany, Poland, and Romania. He also announced a package of sanctions on Russia. Biden said: "Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine, but to defend our NATO allies and reassure those allies in the East" (Al Jazeera, 2022/2/24). He confirmed this in the State of the Union address, saying: "His country's forces will not engage in any combat against Russia but will prevent the advance of Russian forces westward toward other European countries. They will defend every inch of the territory of any NATO member state" (Al Jazeera, 2022/3/2). He also announced the closure of the alliance's airspace to Russian aircraft, as European countries and Canada did. These statements from the US President enticed Russia and encouraged it to carry out and continue its military operation in Ukraine. This was followed by statements from NATO in alignment; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during a press conference with the Polish President in the capital, Warsaw, on 2022/3/1: "NATO is not going to be part of the conflict. NATO is not going to send troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace. The alliance is defensive and does not seek confrontation with Russia. We try to help Ukraine as much as possible, and NATO allies have imposed a heavy cost on Russia" (Anadolu Agency, 2022/3/1), echoing the exact American view...
America was dealing with Russia provocatively. Russia was waiting for the meeting of its Foreign Minister Lavrov with US Secretary of State Blinken in Geneva on 2022/2/24, but Blinken canceled the visit. (US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced last Tuesday that he canceled the meeting that was scheduled between him and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov after Moscow's recognition of the two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and its dispatch of troops to them. Blinken said during a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Washington: "Now that we see the invasion is beginning and Russia has made clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting at this time" Al-Bayan, 2022/02/23). This caused the meeting to fail before it was held, and thus provoked Russia. Then American warnings began to follow one after another in a provocative manner about a Russian invasion of Ukraine while Russia was declaring that it had no intention of invading Ukraine. Everything coming out of Washington was provocative to Russia as if it were pushing it to invade Ukraine. America further pushed Russia toward the invasion by declaring many times that it would not fight in Ukraine because the latter is not a member of NATO. At the same time, America increased shipments of new weapons to Ukraine, transported by American planes every day, including shipments of American Stinger missiles and anti-armor weapons!
Then America increased the pace of its announcements of the proximity of the Russian invasion and that its declarations were based on intelligence information, thereby increasing the international sense of danger. Everyone began watching for the Russian invasion hour by hour based on what was issued by President Biden, his Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, their spokespeople, and even the American press. America also increased the risks of war in Ukraine when it decided to withdraw its staff in the ceasefire monitoring mission in the Donbas region, which is disputed between Ukraine and the separatists. These American employees are part of the European security preservation mission, and Russia felt a great danger from their withdrawal. Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said: ("Some countries" decided to withdraw their citizens employed in the organization's Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, claiming "worsening security conditions." Zakharova added that these decisions cause Moscow great concern, warning of "deliberately dragging the mission into the military hysteria fueled by Washington and using it as a tool for a possible provocation." Sada El-Balad, 2022/2/13). Meaning that Russia perhaps saw that America wanted to ignite the extremely sensitive conflict in Donbas, a conflict that had been frozen since 2015.
This increase in American provocations to Russia coincided with America's announcement that it had almost secured gas for the European continent as an alternative to natural gas from Russia, which Russia is expected to cut off or whose Ukrainian supply pipelines might be affected by the war. This meant depriving Russia of the European market and finding alternatives from American and Qatari gas and from Asian importers, especially the Japanese who hold long-term gas contracts. This comes in light of the mildness of winter and the approach of spring, when the need for natural gas is lower... Then there were extremely dangerous events happening in the Russian Far East. The Russian army announced that an American nuclear submarine entered Russian territorial waters in the Kuril Islands, that it did not respond to Russian warnings, and that Russian ships used rougher methods to force it to retreat, and the process of pushing it out of Russian territorial waters took 3 hours. These Kuril Islands are Japanese islands occupied by Russia during World War II, and Japan still claims them. Because of Russia's lack of response to these Japanese demands, Tokyo has not signed any ceasefire agreement with Russia since 1945, meaning that Japan is officially still in a state of war with Russia since 1945. This meant that Russia's fear of America increased—was America pushing Japan to occupy the Kuril Islands?
Thus, things continue in the direction of provocation, escalation, and more of it, step by step, until Russia sinks deeply into the Ukrainian mud. Until then, American provocations continue, along with British provocations, and European provocations are dragged along with them, such as Germany's suspension of Nord Stream 2 on one hand. America's enticement of Russia to war in Ukraine continues; it does not threaten Russia with an effective threat but suffices with showing the intention of sanctions. Its Secretary of State Blinken calls Russian military preparations a prelude to a "successful" invasion of Ukraine! On the other hand, Ukraine's demands to join NATO increase, and Ukraine's demands for more armament from the West increase, which adds to the piling up of risks for Russia and accelerates their accumulation. This continues until the only door open for Russia to address its security risks around Ukraine is invasion, war, and sinking into the swamp. This is what America wants, which is booby-trapping Ukraine for Russia, and this path does not seem to be one that Russia is capable of stopping today after falling into the traps of its own foolish plan!
Fourth: The European Position: The High Representative of the European Union, Josep Borrell, said on 2022/2/22 that this is a dark day for Europe, the day Russia recognized the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. British Prime Minister Johnson said a few days ago that we have entered a new strategic competition with Russia that may extend for a whole generation. All of this leaves the door open to all possibilities, including nuclear threats.
Nevertheless, Europe tried to calm the situation and reach an agreement with Russia. Its leaders in France and Germany communicated with it. French President Macron visited Moscow and discussed by phone several times with Putin, the latest being after the Russian military operation in Ukraine. The Élysée Palace announced that Macron "repeated in the conversation the international community's request to stop the Russian attack on Ukraine, and reaffirmed the entry into force of an immediate ceasefire, the stopping of all strikes and attacks on civilians and their places of residence, the preservation of all civilian infrastructure, and securing roads, especially the road south of Kyiv" (Agence France-Presse, 2022/2/28). Likewise, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Moscow, discussed with Putin, and stated from there: "There is no doubt for us Germans and indeed all Europeans that stable security cannot be achieved against Russia but only with it... and this is what we agreed on with the Russian President, that the opportunities for settling the current crisis in Europe still exist" (Russia Today, 2022/2/15). Despite this, Europe has indeed become embroiled in the Ukraine crisis just as America wanted. It was forced to announce its full support for Ukraine, backing it with military equipment and advanced weapons, and imposing sanctions on Russia in various fields reaching the point of waging a comprehensive war without sending soldiers. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on his Twitter account on 2022/2/26: "The Russian aggression against Ukraine constitutes a turning point. It threatens the state that has existed since after World War II... In this situation, on our part, we must help Ukraine as much as we can in defending against Putin's invading vanity." Germany decided to send a thousand rocket launchers and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Scholz told the German Parliament: "With the invasion of Ukraine, we are in a new era. Germany will invest from now on, year after year, more than 2% of its GDP in our defense sector. It will invest 100 billion euros in military equipment this year. The goal is to achieve a strong, modern, and advanced army capable of protecting us reliably" (Agence France-Presse, 2022/2/27). Following the Russian military operation, he announced the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which extends from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. EU Foreign and Security Policy Chief Josep Borrell announced on 2022/2/27 that "the Union decided to provide military aid to Ukraine, including weapons worth 450 million euros and protective equipment worth 50 million euros. It will be funded by the European Peace Facility and the intergovernmental fund." (Anadolu Agency, 2022/2/28). In an emergency meeting of the EU in Brussels, European Council President Charles Michel said: "Sanctions will have an impact on us too, but this is a price worth paying to defend our freedom." EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: "We see before us a new geopolitical birth of Europe. The catastrophe that Europe faces today forces it more than ever to unite and cooperate." European Commission President Von der Leyen said: "The fate of Europe is at stake during the war in Ukraine" (Al Jazeera, 2022/3/1). From here, we see that Europe has become embroiled in this war, which has overturned the state of peace it lived in since the end of World War II and placed it under the Russian threat, in addition to its large economic losses due to the loss of energy resources like gas and oil. The EU gets about 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil from Russia, and America wants Europe to turn to it to depend on its gas at exorbitant costs and lower quality. The Nord Stream 2 line would have provided a third of external demand at a cost about 25% lower. Putin stated in the press conference with German Chancellor Scholz in their last meeting, showing his favor to the Germans: "The German consumer, whether an industrial or household consumer, receives gas from Russia five times cheaper (than the current price). Let the German citizen check his wallet and say whether he is ready to buy gas at a price 3-5 times higher. Therefore, the former German Chancellor Schroeder should be thanked, as he supported the Nord Stream 1 project, through which Germany receives about 55 billion cubic meters of gas, and this gas is provided through long-term contracts" (Russia Today, 2022/2/15). Putin mentioned that Germany accounts for 60% of the Russian market. Putin only does this to entice Europe to cooperate with Russia and not stand against it alongside America, and to reassure it that Russia has no designs on it, so that Russia keeps itself safe from the European side.
Fifth: The Chinese Position: China has drawn very close to Russia on this issue. China supported Russia by announcing that Western countries must take Russia's security demands seriously. To mobilize international support for Russian policy regarding Ukraine, Russian President Putin visited Beijing (Winter Olympics) and met with the Chinese President on 2022/2/2. China announced in a joint statement signed by its president with President Putin that it opposes Ukraine's joining NATO. The two countries (Russia and China) announced the unity of their positions in facing American hegemony and called for international multipolarity, stating that a new era in international relations had been inaugurated. They signed large contracts for Chinese investment in Russian gas and oil and for increasing trade exchange between them to $200 billion a year. Nevertheless, it appears that China is waiting to see how things turn out for Russia in Ukraine and whether it will take a similar step to annex Taiwan. Voices began to rise in China saying, "It is the best opportunity to recover Taiwan now" on the Chinese version of Twitter. China refused sanctions on Russia so as not to face similar treatment if it moved to seize Taiwan by force. It abstained from using the veto on a draft resolution condemning Russian aggression and preferred not to vote to avoid a Western campaign against it, thus appearing not to support Russia when it did not use the veto. Note that China did not criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and blamed America, but it values the principles of stability and territorial integrity. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart: "Regarding the current crisis, the Chinese side calls on Ukraine and Russia to find a way to solve it through negotiations and supports all constructive international efforts toward a political settlement" (TASS, 2022/3/1). The Chinese Foreign Minister had announced his country's opposition to sanctions, saying: "China not only does not support sanctions as a means of solving problems but also opposes even more unilateral sanctions that contradict international law" (TASS, 2022/2/27).
Sixth: Summary:
America (succeeded) in entangling Russia into a full or near-full invasion of Ukraine... This will place Russia before local tensions and political, economic, and possibly military shocks for years, whether it settles for occupying eastern Ukraine or moves beyond it to larger areas in Ukraine, all or some of it... It is not ruled out that this will affect Putin's continuation in power...
Likewise, Russia's international status will be affected by this shock, if it does not reach the point of falling! The international campaign has expanded under American and then European pressure to highlight that Russia attacks sovereign states. At the same time, America and Europe forgot or pretended to forget their attacks on many sovereign states in Asia and Africa... All these countries—Russia, America, and Europe—emerge from the same niche and place no value on human life!
As for these attacks leading to a third world war, like World War II was after Nazi Germany's attack on Czechoslovakia and its occupation piece by piece in 1939 as mentioned in the question, the matter is somewhat different... That is because its occurrence is inseparable from nuclear war because this weapon exists in these countries, and they may think a thousand times before implementing it. Not because it destroys others—as this has no weight for them—but because it might hit them. They have no values except what benefits them, even if it harms others! Al Jazeera published in an interview with Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, on 2022/3/2: (In response to a question about the risk of a third world war, Lavrov said that the leaders of the five permanent member states signed a declaration that a world war must not break out, because it would be nuclear and there is no winner in it, noting that US President Joe Biden is the one who said that sanctions on Russia were the only alternative to a third world war.) This Lavrov, the author of this saying, his country finds no objection to shelling a nuclear station as long as the resulting damage is far from it and near others! Al Jazeera published today: (The most prominent event took place at the nuclear plant in the city of Zaporizhzhia, where Ukraine spoke of Russian shelling that led to a fire that was later controlled; but that caused casualties among its workers, according to the Ukrainian version, while the Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukrainian forces of responsibility... Al Jazeera, 2022/3/4).
These are the major powers in today's world—beasts of the jungle, where the strong eats the weak, and if he calls for help, there is no savior... History repeats itself, and the struggle of the major powers today repeats the struggle of the Persians and Romans of yesterday. This matter will not be set right except by that which set its beginning right: ruling by what Allah has revealed and Jihad in the path of Allah. Thus, the weak is protected and the oppressed is given justice. Then the Khilafah that the Messenger of Allah ﷺ gave us glad tidings of will return:
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ
"Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of the Prophethood."
In it, the strong will be weak until the right is taken from him, as the Rightly Guided Caliph Abu Bakr as-Siddiq said, as recorded in Kanz al-Ummal: On the authority of Abdullah bin Akim, who said: When Abu Bakr was given the pledge of allegiance, he ascended the pulpit, descended one step from the seat of the Prophet ﷺ, praised Allah and thanked Him, then said:
...وَأَنَّ أَقْوَاكُمْ عِنْدِي الضَّعِيفُ حَتَّى آخُذَ لَهُ بِحَقِّهِ، وَأَنَّ أَضْعَفَكُمْ عِنْدِي الْقَوِيُّ حَتَّى آخُذَ الْحَقَّ مِنْهُ...
"...And the strongest of you in my sight is the weak until I take the right for him, and the weakest of you in my sight is the strong until I take the right from him..."
Thus, goodness spreads in the Abode of Islam.
وَيَوْمئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Qur’an Ar-Rum 30:4-5)
1st of Sha’ban 1443 AH 2022/03/04 CE