Question:
My question consists of three parts, if I may:
First: The recent meeting between Obama and Modi received heavy media coverage, but it did not result in any real decisions. It seems there is still a problem between the United States and India’s BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Could you point out the issues of disagreement between the two parties?
Second: Given that the BJP in India and the Nawaz party in Pakistan are both pro-American, and that the Kashmir issue is draining India, why is India stalling on resolving the Kashmir problem?
Third: China is meeting with the Taliban for mediation talks. Has the United States allowed this, or is it happening independently? What is China’s purpose behind this mediation?
May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
First: To understand the relations between America and India under Modi, the following points must be taken into account:
Modi inherited a heavy legacy of problems in relations between the Congress Party and America during the ten years of Congress rule. Prior to that, during the years of BJP rule, relations between New Delhi and Washington flourished unprecedentedly. However, all of that changed when the BJP lost the general elections in 2004 and the Congress Party—which is pro-British—took power. In 2010, the Indian Parliament passed the "Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act," which placed excessive restrictions on suppliers of nuclear power plants; this was to deter the United States and its companies from entering the Indian market. The implementation of this law made concluding the 2005 civil nuclear deal with America impossible. On another front, New Delhi strongly rejected American attempts to initiate a dialogue on Kashmir and demanded that Washington take strict measures against Pakistan following the 2008 Mumbai attacks. There was also disagreement with Washington regarding its role in harassing the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), and over several trade disputes. It was expected that both countries would have many joint trade relations, which developed during the Congress Party years, but the United States objected, for example, to the use of the "Made in India" stamp for solar panels, calling it a violation of World Trade Organization laws. India is still busy defending itself against the complaint filed with the WTO Dispute Settlement Body by the United States in 2013...
During the Congress Party's rule, the Indian public had a negative image of America, which worsened due to Washington treating Indian diplomats with contempt. As a result, Modi's first task was to improve America's image among Indians, especially within political circles. Modi polished America's image before the Indian public through Obama's visit to India as the Chief Guest for Republic Day, alongside the signing of a nuclear agreement...
President Obama is now, prior to the general elections to be held in the United States in the fall of 2016, like a lame duck. His main focus is on the Democratic Party winning the elections. In any case, Obama must divide his time between participating in local election campaigns and focusing on numerous crises abroad. Therefore, it is unlikely that Obama will be able to do much to overcome the 10 years of Congress Party rule in India.
In light of these factors, it is difficult to see any tangible progress on the announcements made at the Obama-Modi summit. At best, there will be close cooperation on matters that unify American and Indian interests in the region, such as combating "terrorism" originating from Pakistan and limiting China's influence. However, there are many obstacles that created a gap as a result of the Congress Party's rule, and it will take time for Modi and Obama to overcome and remove them. Former US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwell, while delivering a speech on US-India relations under the Modi era in New Delhi in January 2015, said: "...regarding US strategy toward India over the next two years, in my view, at best, our expectations should be modest, unlike they were at the beginning of the last decade. Neither this Prime Minister nor this President will be able to make a strategic transformation in US-India relations. Therefore, in my opinion, there will be no real strategic partnership between the two countries in the next two years." ["The Atmosphere of US-India Relations and Unified Business," January 24, 2015].
In other words, Blackwell expects that relations between the two countries will catch their breath and regain full strength during Obama's successor, not before.
Second: As for the Kashmir issue, it was also surrounded by many complexities during the Congress Party rule, making Modi need some time to be able to put the Kashmir issue on the table:
Since the Congress Party rose to power in 2004, the Kashmir issue has been largely shelved, despite the fact that Pakistan, under Musharraf's rule, made numerous concessions to start the stalled dialogue process between the two countries. However, the Congress Party rejected any initiative presented by Musharraf and insisted that the Kashmir issue is an internal matter.
The situation remained as it was until the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. After that, all prospects for resuming dialogue on the Kashmir issue were completely frozen. The Indian government changed its tone and pressured Pakistan to admit guilt in the attacks and work to rein in all armed groups operating inside Pakistan, especially Lashkar-e-Taiba... In October 2010, the Indian government held the Pakistani intelligence agency (ISI) responsible for planning the attacks, saying in a statement: "The ISI was involved in planning the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai..." ["Indian Government: Pakistani Agents Behind Mumbai Attacks," Hindustan Times, October 19, 2010].
Following the Mumbai attacks, relations between Islamabad and New Delhi became strained, and any attempt by Pakistan or America to press for a resumption of dialogue on Kashmir was rejected by India.
At that time, America was pressuring India to ease tensions along the border with Pakistan, especially on the Line of Control, so that Pakistan could redeploy its forces to the border with Afghanistan to help America fight the resistance in Afghanistan. But India did not budge from its position on Kashmir, and both Pakistan and America were forced to accept the new reality.
During the Congress Party's rule in India, public opinion froze against any concessions regarding the Kashmir issue to Pakistan. Consequently, when Modi ascended to the Prime Minister's office on May 26, 2014, he was challenged by 10 years of Congress Party intransigence in refusing to abandon the non-negotiable position on Kashmir.
America tried to pave the way for a rapprochement between India and Pakistan as a step toward negotiating a solution for Kashmir. Accordingly, Nawaz Sharif defied the feelings of Muslims by visiting India to congratulate Modi and attend his inauguration ceremony, despite Modi being known for his hostility toward Muslims... That step increased the distance rather than the rapprochement...
Furthermore, there is another matter: all Indian parties hold onto Kashmir as a part of India. Therefore, even if the BJP and Nawaz's party are pro-American, it is not easy to solve the Kashmir issue through a negotiated solution. Rather, the correct and just solution is to end the Hindu occupation of it by force, which is an easy matter, Allah willing, if there were a state in Pakistan sincere to Allah (swt) and His Messenger (saw). May it be soon, by Allah's leave.
Despite all this, it is not excluded that America might bring the two parties together, but this matter may take time.
Third: China's relationship with Afghanistan... and the Taliban:
China has taken a great interest in developing trade relations with Afghanistan. The state-owned Metallurgical Group Corporation spent $3 billion on a copper mine in the Aynak mine (about 50 kilometers south of Kabul). The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the country's largest oil company, agreed in 2011 to develop the Amu Darya basin in Afghanistan, a project that will generate $7 billion in profits. CNPC helped establish the first oil production site in Afghanistan, with an estimated annual capacity of 1.5 million barrels ["China and its Presence in Afghanistan," The National, November 1, 2014]. Furthermore, China recently announced the "New Silk Road" project at a cost of billions of dollars. The project consists of three parts: the first starts from Xi'an in China, passes through Pakistan, and ends in Turkey. The second extends from Bangladesh to Myanmar, while the third connects the coast of Fujian, China, with the rest of the world. The revival of the Silk Road Economic Belt was the brainchild of President Xi Jinping, and it has been worked on, developed, and accelerated in implementation since the last quarter of 2013. Consequently, Afghanistan is an important piece in this major project. Also, China's massive appetite for resources will increase in Afghanistan, with over $1 trillion in potential mineral wealth.
Accordingly, it was not surprising that as soon as Ashraf Ghani became President of Afghanistan, his first foreign visit was to China, where he was rewarded with new commitments from Beijing. China pledged to give Afghanistan 2 billion yuan ($327 million) in aid through 2017, in addition to the $250 million it has contributed to Afghanistan since 2001. Additionally, China promised to provide training for 3,000 Afghan professional employees, as well as help in developing Afghan agriculture, hydroelectric power, and infrastructure.
From the above, it is clear that China has a strong commercial interest in developing robust relations with Afghanistan in the near future.
China cannot exploit its trade relations with Afghanistan unless the country is stable... and stability requires a strong government in Afghanistan. Therefore, China is keen to support Ghani's government as much as possible. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during his visit to Kabul on February 22, 2014: "Peace and stability in this country have an impact on the security of western China, and more importantly, it affects the tranquility and development of the entire region. We hope to see a broad-based and inclusive political reconciliation in Afghanistan as soon as possible, and China will play a constructive role to facilitate that... A divided country has no future." [Reuters, February 22, 2014].
From here came China's interest in the stability of Afghanistan. There is another matter: China fears the threat stemming from the Afghan border with China, known as the "Wakhan Corridor," a narrow strip of territory in northeastern Afghanistan that extends to China and Tajikistan, separating Pakistan and the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region. It lies between the Pamirs to the north and the Hindu Kush to the south, with a length of about 350 km and a width between 13-65 km. It forms a channel to facilitate the movement of Uighur Islamic fighters, who constitute an internal security issue for China, as the Taliban shelters and trains militants from the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" of the Uighurs in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. Uighur fighters are fighting to establish an independent homeland free from Chinese hegemony. The Chinese Foreign Minister clearly explained this during his visit to Kabul last year, in a statement published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China about the purpose of the visit, where he said: "...to enhance cooperation in the security field, and cooperation in other aspects such as combating terrorism and combating the East Turkestan Islamic Movement..." ["Wang Yi Holds Talks with the Foreign Minister of Afghanistan," Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Czech Republic, February 23, 2014].
In light of the aforementioned points, China supports the continued American presence in Afghanistan beyond December 2014 to maintain stability. This was clearly indicated in China's public encouragement of Hamid Karzai to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). In September 2013, President Hamid Karzai's spokesperson, Aimal Faizi, said that the President of China provides support for Afghan foreign relations with regional and foreign countries, specifically with the United States of America, in an effort to bring peace and stability to the region, and that China supports the conclusion of a security agreement between Afghanistan and the United States. ["China Supports the Security Agreement between Afghanistan and the United States," Khaama Press, September 28, 2013]. The newspaper added that China also announced its support for the Afghan-led peace process and that it is ready to play a role in the Afghan peace talks, i.e., peace talks with the Taliban... From these statements, all in the same context, and other similar statements, it is clear that China supports America to preserve stability in Afghanistan and also supports peace talks with the Taliban with the full knowledge of the Americans.
Also, in November 2014, China established the "Peace and Reconciliation Forum," as reported by Reuters, in an effort to play a larger role in Afghanistan to push peace talks forward [Reuters, November 11, 2014] and to find ways to mediate a peace agreement between Ghani's government and the Taliban movement. Consequently, recently, the Taliban movement visited Beijing, and China is supporting Pakistan to exert pressure on the Afghan Taliban movement to achieve reconciliation with Ghani's government. This cannot be interpreted as China wanting to replace America in Afghanistan; on the contrary, Beijing and Washington's interests are harmonized on the issue of achieving stability in Afghanistan. In this regard, a US official said: "The United States and China have agreed to work together to support the government of Afghanistan, national unity, security forces, and economic development to ensure that Afghanistan is never again used as a safe haven for terrorists." ["China Steps Forward to Mediate Stalled Peace Talks with the Afghan Taliban," Economic Times, February 13, 2015].
All this indicates that China is concerned with stability in Afghanistan due to the development of its vast economic interests there, and it agrees with America on the subject of Afghanistan's stability... It is also concerned with reconciliation between Afghanistan and the Taliban, so China benefits from that by tightening the supply line of the East Turkestan revolutionaries. Therefore, these contacts from China with both parties—Afghanistan and the Taliban—took place.
We hope the Taliban realizes this matter and turns China's plot back against it, and that the brotherhood of Islam continues between them and the East Turkestan revolutionaries.