Question: (A prominent party official said that Pakistan's two largest parties, the "League" and the "Peoples Party," will meet on Monday to negotiate the formation of a coalition government after inconclusive elections amid political and economic instability in the country. Monday's talks are the fifth round of negotiations to form a coalition government... Reuters, 19/02/2024). The Pakistani elections were held on 08/02/2024 after a delay. Does the mention of Monday's meetings mean the exclusion of Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) loyalists from power? Are the accusations of fraud and election manipulation real? And where are things heading after the elections in Pakistan?
Answer: The elections in Pakistan took place after being delayed for months. (Final results announced on Sunday showed independents winning 101 seats, while the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif won 75 seats, the Pakistan Peoples Party led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari won 54 seats, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) won 17 seats. Al Jazeera Net, 11/02/2024). These elections were intended to lead the country toward political stability after a difficult period of chaos following the parliament's withdrawal of confidence from Imran Khan's government and his ousting on 09/04/2022. Subsequently, Shehbaz Sharif (Nawaz Sharif's brother) assumed the premiership for the PML-N, after which storming protests ignited in the country. As for where things are heading after the elections in Pakistan, the following matters must be reviewed:
1- Pakistan is one of the most important Muslim countries; its population momentum (250 million people) makes it a massive human reservoir for driving the economic wheel or providing manpower for the military. Pakistan is one of the unique countries in the world with significant human and military power and a strategic location.
2- Pakistan is considered one of the poor countries in the world today, despite the availability of fertile agricultural plains and water, despite its industrial capabilities, and despite the human power capable of driving the world's largest economies. This is due to the failed policies pushed by America. Financial and administrative corruption and the prevalence of the disease of dependency on others like China or America hinder any attempt at economic progress. The country suffered from the catastrophic floods in 2022 that destroyed agricultural lands, and the state stood helpless, failing to provide any significant solutions. Alongside economic failure, total failure in all fields has been the most prominent feature of governance in Pakistan across decades.
3- The Islamic jihadi spirit exploded in Pakistan in a way that terrified the world. This occurred against the backdrop of the Kashmir issue, as well as the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the subsequent American occupation. Many events over the decades have revealed a solid fighting spirit deeply rooted in the Islamic Aqeedah of the Pakistani people. Thus, there were various Islamic jihadi movements to liberate Kashmir and Afghanistan, and calls to support Muslims worldwide. Movements for what the West calls "political Islam" took root in Pakistan, the most famous being the movement rooted for the establishment of the Khilafah. For all these reasons, the eruption of Islam in Pakistan made it—along with its neighbor Afghanistan—a second center of Islamic political weight after the Middle East.
4- The Pakistani army is considered a giant military force, heavily armed with lethal weapons and nuclear capabilities that are taken into account. Due to the long history of conflict with India, America pushes the Pakistani army toward civil war within Pakistan and pushes it into clashes and engagement with the Taliban movement, which returned to power in 2021 in Afghanistan. In fact, it has also begun pushing it toward the Iranian border, all to enable India to participate in America's strategy to stop China's rise and occupy China with the possibilities of war with India. Before all this, America succeeded in making Pakistan its gateway to Afghanistan during its occupation (2001-2021). However, despite all this, America's eye does not overlook for a moment the strategic risks of the Pakistani army's power. Therefore, US President Biden called Pakistan ("one of the most dangerous nations in the world"... Euro News Arabic, 15/10/2022), all this despite the subservience of the military and political leadership in Pakistan and their easy responsiveness to American policies.
5- Adding to Pakistan's importance is that China—America's most prominent international competitor—views Pakistan with a special perspective. It supports Pakistan against India, supplies Pakistan with weapons, and invests tens of billions of dollars in Pakistan in the form of loans and some grants to support infrastructure, roads, ports, and industries. Although America holds the reins of government and influence in Pakistan, it views these Chinese efforts and investments in Pakistan with suspicion.
6- Given these facts, the first thing that must be understood when looking at political events in Pakistan is that America, the head of disbelief, has focused on the Pakistani army and its military leadership as the linchpin of hegemony and influence within Pakistan. Among the major scenes of American control over the army and its military leadership in Pakistan is keeping the country away from conflict and war with India despite continuous Indian provocations in Kashmir, which have even increased in pace. Another scene is the Pakistani army's direction toward civil war and igniting war in northwest Pakistan to eliminate the mujahideen who were supporting their brothers in Afghanistan during the American occupation. There are also the clashes that occur from time to time with Afghanistan. Additionally, the entire American invasion of Afghanistan passed through the Pakistani gateway. Therefore, American control over the military leadership in Pakistan is what makes Pakistan a state subservient to America.
7- The Pakistani army fully controls the country and has intervened in political and party life. When things got out of control, it would intervene with a military coup and overthrow the rulers. Previously, the country's governance fluctuated between two political parties: the Muslim League (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). The former was viewed as a right-wing party while the latter was seen as left-wing. The former enjoyed broad support in the Punjab province, while the latter enjoyed broad support in the Sindh province. Due to the failure of both parties throughout history, the deep immersion of leadership from both parties in corruption, and their leadership becoming feudal landowners, the army—faced with this chronic failure and the great resentment in Pakistan that pushes people toward political Islamic movements—saw fit to change the equation. It brought in Imran Khan, who was the leader of a then-small party (Tehreek-e-Insaf), and raised his voice against corruption amid major accusations and courts set up for former Prime Minister and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif, until PTI won parliamentary votes and Imran Khan became Prime Minister in 2018.
8- During that period, Pakistani courts were pursuing the former ruler Nawaz Sharif on corruption charges. He had resigned from his post in June 2017 after the Supreme Court convicted him of tax evasion-related corruption charges and ruled him ineligible to remain in office. In July 2018, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges. (Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif accused Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa of toppling his government, pressuring the judiciary, and installing the current government led by Imran Khan in the 2018 elections. Reuters, 17/10/2020). For all these reasons, the overthrow of Nawaz Sharif, his trial, and holding elections while he was behind bars in Pakistan were by the army's decision. Bringing in Imran Khan, away from the two traditional parties, was also the army's decision.
9- Nawaz Sharif, who was serving a prison sentence, was allowed to travel to Britain for health purposes, under an agreement that he would return after treatment to complete his sentence. However, when the army overthrew Imran Khan (as we explained in the Q&A "America and the replacement of its agents in Pakistan" dated 05/05/2022), it began removing all obstacles to Nawaz Sharif's return. After Imran Khan's ousting in 2022, Sharif's brother (Shehbaz Sharif) was appointed as interim Prime Minister until elections were held. Additionally, the Islamabad court issued a decision to release Nawaz Sharif on bail before his arrival in the country. The parliament passed a law in June 2023 setting a maximum of 5 years for the ineligibility of a member of parliament to run, after it had been for life, allowing Nawaz Sharif to return and nominate himself. Thus, Nawaz Sharif returned from abroad and appeared before the court in preparation for his acquittal from the charges against him and to compete in the elections (Independent Arabia, 27/10/2023). And that is what happened! Nawaz Sharif became a "clean" politician once again and ran for elections with his party, the "Muslim League," while his brother Shehbaz led the interim government supervising the elections. (Sharif received army support upon his return to Pakistan last October after four years in exile in London. Independent Arabia, 10/02/2024). According to the same source, (on the other hand, it is believed that Nawaz Sharif returned to the country after making a "deal" with the military establishment to return him to the post of Prime Minister for the fourth time. The "Insaf" and "Peoples" parties accuse the official reception Sharif received upon his return as evidence of an understanding between him and the military establishment).
10- That was regarding Nawaz Sharif. As for Imran Khan, he currently languishes in prison, having been sentenced on multiple charges. Because of this, he was prevented from running in the elections, and his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf, was barred from contesting the elections as a political party. Thus, it becomes clear how political balances flip in Pakistan. Today (2024), the army's scales have turned against Imran Khan, placing him in the same position Nawaz Sharif was in in 2018. Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif has returned to the forefront after all obstacles were removed as we explained. Through all this, it is evident how the Pakistani army leadership manipulates parliamentary elections and how it manipulates those political parties that seek its approval to gain power. This is not hidden; the army chief imprisoned Nawaz Sharif and brought in Imran Khan, then imprisoned Imran Khan and brought back Nawaz Sharif! Thus, pseudo-politicians among party leaders are manipulated according to America's desires for the sake of a distorted ruling seat! Then, when their role ends, they are cast aside or behind prison bars!
11- The army leadership is what controls the state and subsequently the elections in numerous ways. It has been admitted that communications and the internet were cut off in some areas; the state claimed this was to prevent chaos and disturbances on election day! Similarly, the state monopolizes the determination of electoral districts based on its population census. Through this, it can increase or decrease districts in favor of specific parties that have electoral weight in those districts! The elections were delayed from August 2023 until February 2024 under the pretext of redrawing electoral districts based on the latest population census. In this sense, the party leaders who rotate in power are all bound by subservience and service to America. Whoever deviates from this American line, or attempts to do so, or clashes with the army, finds conspiracies hatched against them, and corruption courts set up until they end up behind bars. Therefore, all these parties operate under the umbrella of the army's military leadership, which is a leadership subservient to America. These parties may compete locally among themselves for the army to choose the most suitable one for the current stage...
12- Furthermore, the army leadership allows back-and-forth debate over election results to show that it is far from controlling them! (Former Pakistani Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan both claimed victory in the general elections on Friday. Independent Arabia, 10/02/2024). Tehreek-e-Insaf considers that the independent candidates obtaining 101 seats—the vast majority of whom are its followers—is the largest number of votes obtained by any bloc, qualifying it as a party to lead the government formation process. However, the PML-N led by Nawaz Sharif, which obtained 75 seats, says that as a bloc, it is the winner. This is what the Army Chief's statement alluded to when he asked all political parties "with political blocs" to show maturity and unity in the face of chaos. This means that although Imran Khan's party obtained the largest number of seats, they are officially seats for independents and not a "political bloc." Thus, Nawaz Sharif's bloc remains the one with the "legal" right to lead the government formation process by coalition with other parties.
13- Despite some officials admitting that "election fraud" occurred: [Islamabad - Liaquat Ali Chatha, a government commissioner in the city of Rawalpindi (southeast of Islamabad), confessed to rigging the election results that took place under his supervision in Rawalpindi... He added, "We made independent candidates who had between 70,000 to 80,000 votes lose by putting in fake ballot papers." In a handwritten letter, Chatha said he would resign from his post because he was deeply involved in the "serious crime of rigging the 2024 general elections." In response to Chatha's claims, the Election Commission of Pakistan said it "strongly rejects the accusations made against it or its head," adding, "But the Election Commission will conduct an investigation into the matter as soon as possible." Al Jazeera, 17/02/2024]. Despite this, it seems the Army Chief—after releasing Nawaz Sharif from prison and allowing him to run at the head of his party—is preparing the stage for him to take the premiership. (A prominent party official said that Pakistan's two largest parties, the "League" and the "Peoples Party," will meet on Monday to negotiate the formation of a coalition government after inconclusive elections... Negotiations are currently underway to convince the Peoples Party to join the government and take ministerial positions within several proposals for power-sharing between the two parties... The new government may also face more political tension, as independent members of parliament backed by the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan form the largest group in the legislature. Reuters, 19/02/2024). The army leadership makes whomever it wants a winner today and a losing prisoner tomorrow... and so on!
أَلَا سَاءَ مَا يَحْكُمُون
"Evil indeed is their judgment!" (An-Nahl [16]: 59)
14- Amidst this deep manipulation of governance in Pakistan by the military leadership subservient to America, where a climate of political chaos exists that could persist and strike at the country's stability, all of this can be a strong motivator for the sincere people in the army and in Pakistan in general to rise up and end the country's dependency on America. Subsequently, they must establish the rule of Allah, the Righteous Khilafah. This is the promise of Allah (swt):
وَعَدَ اللهُ الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا مِنْكُمْ وَعَمِلُوا الصَّالِحَاتِ لَيَسْتَخْلِفَنَّهُمْ فِي الْأَرْضِ كَمَا اسْتَخْلَفَ الَّذِينَ مِنْ قَبْلِهِمْ
"Allah has promised those among you who believe and do righteous deeds that He will surely grant them succession [to authority] upon the earth just as He granted it to those before them." (An-Nur [24]: 55)
And it is the glad tidings of His Messenger (saw) after this oppressive rule we are in: (...Hudhayfah said: The Messenger of Allah (saw) said: ...)
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ ثُمَّ سَكَتَ
"...Then there will be an oppressive rule, and it will last as long as Allah wishes it to last, then He will lift it when He wishes to lift it. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood. Then he remained silent." (Narrated by Ahmad)
The establishment of this great obligation is awaited by everyone near and far among the sons of the Islamic Ummah, especially since Pakistan was founded on the basis of Islam since its inception. The general public and the army love Islam and Muslims, and the connection of its rulers and army leadership to America is more insignificant to Allah than for them to change the Ummah's love for its Islam. Thus, the end is for the righteous if they are truthful, work hard, and support Allah; for Allah is their supporter:
وَسَيَعْلَمُ الَّذِينَ ظَلَمُوا أَيَّ مُنْقَلَبٍ يَنْقَلِبُونَ
"And those who have wronged will come to know to what [kind of] return they will be returned." (Ash-Shu'ara [26]: 227)
10 Sha'ban 1445 AH 20/02/2024 CE