Question:
On Monday, July 20, 2015, the Security Council ratified the nuclear deal, which was finalized on July 14, 2015, in Vienna, Austria, between Iran and the P5+1 group. This followed two extensions from the original deadline of June 30, 2015, as per the framework agreement signed in Lausanne, Switzerland, on April 2, 2015. What is the substance of this agreement, what are its results and implications for the region's situation, and in whose interest is this agreement? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
It is necessary to review the statements and positions of the influential countries to clarify the answer:
Following the signing of the agreement in Vienna, the U.S. President delivered a televised speech in which he said: "The deal cuts off every pathway for Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon... The deal stipulates the removal of two-thirds of the centrifuges installed in Iran and storing them under international supervision, getting rid of 98% of its enriched uranium, accepting the rapid snapback of sanctions if any violation occurs, and giving the International Atomic Energy Agency permanent access to inspect sites wherever and whenever necessary" (BBC, 14/07/2015).
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said: "The implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran will take place in stages and will begin within 90 days after the issuance of an international resolution by the UN Security Council in support of it. Some provisions will remain in effect for 15 years, while others will remain valid for 25 years." (Russia Today, 14/07/2015)...
The UN Secretary-General—who expresses the American view—said in a statement: "I hope and truly believe that this agreement will lead to greater understanding and cooperation on many serious security challenges in the Middle East." He added that "as such, it [the agreement] can serve as a vital contribution to peace and stability in the entire region and beyond" (Elaph, 14/07/2014).
As for Europe, with its three branches participating in the Group of Six—namely France, Britain, and Germany—along with all Europeans, they supported the agreement. The High Representative of the European Union, Mogherini, stated: "The agreement is a historic event and a good deal. It stipulates the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program and a package of measures ensuring that Iran does not seek to conduct research or develop programs enabling it to obtain a nuclear weapon. It is not an end, but the beginning of work for a phase of joint cooperation between Iran and international parties." (Russia Today, 14/07/2015).
The French President welcomed the nuclear deal concluded between Iran and the major powers, stating in a televised speech on the occasion of the National Day: "The agreement we signed is extremely important, and the world is moving forward..." The British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond praised the "historic agreement" concluded on Tuesday regarding the Iranian nuclear program, considering that it "constitutes an important change in relations between Iran, neighboring countries, and the international community..." (Elaph, 14/07/2015). German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said: "The agreement will contribute to spreading security in the Middle East... This is a responsible agreement, and Israel must look at it carefully and not criticize it." (German ARD TV, 14/07/2015).
As for Russia and China, they did not impose conditions or stand in the way of those Western conditions and agreed to everything that occurred:
Regarding Russia, President Putin was "delighted" by the U.S. President's phone call after the signing of the final agreement, giving Russia some recognition as a return for its stance that supported America. In fact, America had obtained Russia's prior approval on everything regarding Iran and its nuclear program. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry, during his visit to Russia and meeting with President Putin and his counterpart Lavrov on May 12, 2015, in Sochi, Russia, referring to the ongoing talks on the nuclear deal, stated: "Unity between Moscow and Washington on this issue is the key to signing the final agreement." Therefore, President Vladimir Putin welcomed the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, saying that the international community received it with "great relief" after long years of negotiations. For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov promised in Vienna that Russia "will contribute practical steps toward implementing the agreement." (Elaph, 14/07/2015).
As for the Chinese representative, he said: "Everyone must show a spirit of positivity in implementing the nuclear deal," noting that "the implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran during the first ten years is of great importance." (Al-Wefaq website, 20/07/2015). Likewise, "Obama thanked the Chinese President for his role in the talks with Iran" (Al-Arabiya, 21/07/2015).
As for Iran, its rejoicing over the agreement was beyond description! It forgot, or rather chose to forget, the Great and Small Satan. Iranian television broadcasted President Obama's speech delivered after the agreement welcoming it. This is the second time in 36 years that Iranian television has broadcasted a speech by an American president live, despite diplomatic relations being severed since 1980! Minutes after Obama, the Iranian President spoke, considering the agreement a "starting point" for building trust between his country and the West. He said, "If this agreement is implemented correctly... we can gradually remove the lack of trust..." (Elaph website, 14/07/2015).
Thus, all the negotiating international powers (P5+1) saw the agreement as a "historic act" and followed America in this. However, two parties opposed it, not because it was against America's interests, but for other purposes. These two parties are the Republican Party in America and the Jewish entity...
- As for the Republican Party, it realizes that the agreement is distinctly in America's interest. However, as is the habit of the Republican Party, it fights fiercely to prevent the success of the Democratic Party in having a vital project for America's benefit attributed to it, especially as elections approach. This is not new; we remember the American hostage crisis that lasted from 04/11/1979 to 20/01/1981. The Republicans exerted every effort to foil the attempts of then-Democratic President Carter to resolve the hostage crisis, wanting it to happen under a Republican era. And so it was; prominent Republican officials contacted prominent officials in Khomeini’s government and agreed to delay the release of the hostages during the Carter administration until Reagan's term after the presidential elections, in exchange for Iran receiving American weapons, the release of Iranian deposits, and other agreements. Indeed, that happened; no sooner had the Republican Reagan taken the presidential oath of office on January 20, 1981, than the American hostages were released twenty minutes after the oath. Reagan's supporters then spoke about this miracle and the end of the crisis as soon as Reagan reached presidential power!
The matter now is similar; it is an electoral partisan struggle and not a dispute over America's interest. Both parties realize that the nuclear deal was a victory for America, but the Republicans do not want the Democrats to be credited with a vital project, especially with the presidential elections approaching. From this angle, the Republican opposition entered. It is known that the Republican-controlled Congress opposed signing the agreement because the Congress has partisan calculations related to the presidential elections scheduled for November 2016. The Republican Party is working to ensure that the Democratic Party, represented by the current administration under Obama, does not appear to have achieved a brilliant success that would enable it to win the presidential elections. Obama realizes this, which is why he threatened a Veto if the Republicans pushed their opposition to the limit and blocked the agreement in Congress...
- As for the Jewish entity, it undoubtedly realizes that it never dreamed of such an agreement. It has allowed this entity to lead the region as the sole possessor of nuclear weapons without rival. However, it showed opposition for three reasons: First, the entity expects the Republican Party to win the presidential elections, so it supports them in their preliminary campaigns to gain "favor" with the party upon its success. Second, the entity expects Obama to offer some concessions to appease it, as the Democrats need the votes of the Jewish Lobby, so the objection is a means of extortion. Third, and most importantly, this entity realizes that the rulers in Iran and other Muslim lands who squander the Ummah's rights and its weapons will not last long, and the day will soon come when the Islamic Ummah returns to its Deen and its scientists revive its vital industries anew. The Jewish entity realizes this, and therefore it demonstrates that this agreement is insufficient, aiming to direct pressure—after targeting the nuclear weapon in Iran and other Muslim lands—toward targeting nuclear scientists in Muslim lands...
For these reasons, the entity showed its opposition; otherwise, it realizes that both Republicans and Democrats are committed to preserving its security. It cannot dispense with America's umbrella for its security, for the Jews have no standing except through a rope from Allah and a rope from the people. They cut the rope of Allah long ago, and now they are holding onto the rope of the people. Their security is based on an external factor, and such an agreement is a pillar in preserving their security. Their opposition to the agreement is not real. Thus, Ash Carter, Obama's Defense Secretary—at the same time Netanyahu was opposing Obama—arrived in the Jewish state to a grand reception and said: "Israel is the pillar of our policy in the Middle East, and we will not allow Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon. We are committed to the security and defense of our allies in the region." (Occupied Jerusalem - Quds Net News Agency, 20/07/2015).
Through these statements and positions, the following becomes clear:
A- The American administration's extreme eagerness to sign this agreement! It dealt with it as if it were a matter of life and death for itself, not for Iran, Europe, or any other country. The U.S. President was managing the negotiations from afar, with direct contact and intense interest in concluding this deal. He occupied his Secretary of State with it for three continuous weeks, in addition to previous contacts, which indicates the extent of the importance of this agreement for America, its interests, and the interests of the Obama administration. It has bound Iran for decades and distanced it from manufacturing any nuclear weapon. If we link this to previous statements by the U.S. President and other American officials regarding the importance of Iran's strategic role in the region and the readiness to work with it—and indeed working with it as is apparent—as well as the statements of Iranian officials who announced their cooperation with America in Iraq and Afghanistan and their readiness to work with it in fighting terrorism and extremism, and what is actually witnessed of America's implicit approval of what Iran and its party are doing in Syria, as well as what happened in Yemen where it gave Iran an important role to supply the Houthis with weapons and equipment to play a role there so that America can extend its influence in Yemen... all this indicates that America aims through this agreement to facilitate matters for Iran by lifting sanctions and establishing open relations with it so that it continues to play the role that would facilitate America's work, lighten its burdens, and cover its games with the countries and peoples in the region. Iran effectively implements American policy as is happening in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, but instead of the implementation being behind a screen that blocks the view as it was, it will be behind a transparent screen or without a screen at all!
B- On another note, it was observed that the three European countries were on the sidelines of the negotiations! What was happening was almost entirely arrangements prepared by America with Iran regarding the lifting of sanctions, the nuclear deal, and activating Iran in the service of American projects in the region. There is no doubt that Europe realized this, as most of the secret and even the decisive public meetings were between American and Iranian representatives. Thus, it was clear to Europe that the agreement prepared by America would be adopted; therefore, European opposition, especially the French, retreated and the signing took place. Europe saw that it could gain something from this American agreement, particularly from the lifting of sanctions, so those countries rushed toward the Iranian arena. Britain announced it would reopen its embassy there, France announced its foreign minister would head to Tehran, and German companies prepared to move immediately toward Iran. In fact, they have been drawing up future programs and projects in Iran for some time, which appeared through German media as if the Germans had been confident for a while that the agreement would be signed, sensing that Iran would concede and realizing that it is at America's beck and call. Thus, nothing remained for the Europeans, having realized they could not prevent the American-Iranian nuclear deal or affect American influence, but to move toward Iran to obtain the spoils by gaining investments and projects there, since they are suffering from financial distress. Through this, they can work within Iran in the long term to regain some European influence alongside American influence.
C- As for Russia and China, they do not aspire to have influence in Iran. That America facilitates their commercial relations with Iran by lifting sanctions is enough for them. If a thank-you call from Obama for not opposing the agreement is added to that, as mentioned earlier, it is considered a good thing by them!
D- As for Iran, all it cared about was the lifting of sanctions and appearing as a victor, even if it meant being stripped of the weapon of pride for Islam and Muslims, and even if it was in exchange for the accelerated and increasing implementation of American projects in the region at a faster pace than before! It showed its joy over the agreement and supported it on official and popular levels because it cancels the sanctions, while remaining silent about the price paid for that. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered a speech via Iranian television immediately after the signing, but he waited for the U.S. President to finish his speech! Rouhani praised the agreement, saying it achieved Iran's aspirations and stated: "All sanctions imposed on Iran will disappear on the day the agreement enters into force..."
In exchange for lifting the sanctions, there were concessions that no free regime would accept, let alone a regime that raises the banner of Islam. Any rational person who looks closely at those concessions and ponders them will be struck by extreme astonishment at their atrocity. After the announcement of the agreement on July 14, 2015, the "Russia Today" page published its most important provisions, including:
Imposing long-term restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program with the continuation of uranium enrichment at 3.67%... reducing centrifuges by two-thirds to 5,060 centrifuges... getting rid of 98% of enriched uranium... not exporting nuclear fuel during the coming years and not building heavy water reactors and not transferring equipment from one nuclear facility to another for 15 years... allowing IAEA inspectors access to all suspected sites, including military sites, but after consultation with Tehran... maintaining the ban on arms imports for an additional 5 years and 8 years for ballistic missiles... releasing Iran's frozen assets and balances estimated at billions of dollars... lifting the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Iran... The page added that Iran signed a "road map" with the Agency, which included:
Maintaining the restrictions imposed on Iran in the nuclear field for 8 years... Iran refraining from conducting scientific research regarding nuclear fuel processing for 15 years... Iran's low-enriched uranium stockpile must not exceed 300 kilograms for 15 years... Iran is committed until October 15 to clarify issues of a possible military dimension in dialogue with the IAEA.
The Iranian Fars Agency said on July 14, 2015: "The draft agreement stipulates the inspection of all Iranian sites, including military ones, and one visit to the Parchin military site." Added to this is what came in Obama's speech after the agreement: "...and accepting the rapid snapback of sanctions if any violation occurs..."
Whoever ponders these concessions will be struck by extreme astonishment at their atrocity, as we said before. The strange thing is that the regime promotes these concessions as victories! There are those who make mistakes but admit them and rectify them or seek to rectify them; these are people whose mistakes and return from them can be understood. But for people to commit terrible tragedies regarding the fate of an Ummah deliberately and then count them as a victory and success, that is a deadly darkness that might be slightly alleviated by the light beginning to emerge from some conscious people in Iran who were not deceived by that promotion of a false victory, but rather saw it as a clear defeat. The Raja website in Iran criticized the celebration of the agreement and said: "It is not a victory but a crushing defeat because it closed a large part of Iran's nuclear technology" (Elaph website, July 14). Even Khamenei realized that the weapon of promoting victory is a losing weapon, especially after Iranian television broadcasted Obama's speech before his president's speech! So the "Supreme Leader" returned to try to fix the loss by describing America as arrogant... and that its policy differs from his... and that he does not negotiate with it... but when?! After he had had his fill of negotiations... and after the American nuclear project had struck Iran at its core... even the lifting of sanctions and the release of funds that the regime tried to use to justify these concessions do not hold any argument. Rouhani's repetition in his speeches: "Those sanctions caused many problems in Iranian society" (23/06/2015), and repeating it again in his speech delivered after signing the agreement broadcasted by Iranian television, saying: "The sanctions left effects on the Iranian people" (14/07/2015)... all this is part of the deception because the effects of sanctions are not erased by humiliating concessions, but by the sincere and faithful application of the rules of Islam, especially the economic system in the rules of public property and state property, and that it be applied by men who are true to their covenant with Allah. They would properly utilize the vast wealth in Iran, both beneath the earth and above it. This system is written in the Book of Allah, the Exalted, and the Sunnah of His Messenger ﷺ, and it is realized by everyone who has a heart or gives ear while he is a witness... all of this revives the people and lifts them from the hardship of living, and the effect of the sanctions rebounds on the one who created them and not on the one for whom they were made. As for the release of funds, if the costs of the weapons that Iran is giving up in exchange for that were calculated, the difference would not be great! So how about if the moral value lost by the Ummah by being stripped of an important part of its weapons is added?!
This is how sanctions are addressed, and not through humiliating concessions...
إِنَّ فِي هَذَا لَبَلَاغًا لِقَوْمٍ عَابِدِينَ
"Verily in this (the Quran) there is a plain Message for people who worship Allah." (Surah Al-Anbiya [21]: 106)