Question:
Hollande described the Russian raids on Aleppo as a "war crime" (BBC Arabic, 20-10-2016). This occurred after the opening ceremony of a Russian Orthodox spiritual and cultural center in Paris was held without Putin's attendance on 19-10-2016. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had announced on 11-10-2016 that President Putin decided to cancel his official visit to Paris scheduled for the 19th of this month. This followed the French President’s expression of hesitation in receiving Putin in Paris, after Russia used its veto against the French proposal regarding Syria, which created tension in relations... What is the reason for this? What is its impact on Russian-European relations? Will these events cause a change in the international actors involved in the Syrian crisis? In other words, will there be a role for the European Union and a decline in the Russian role? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
To clarify the reason for this, its impact, and whether it will result in a change in the effective international parties, we review the following matters:
First: The idea of "international partnership" activated by the Obama administration resulted in assigning Russia an international function in Syria. This is the reality in Washington, and it was echoed by some Russian politicians when they spoke about American arrogance in discussing the Syrian issue with the Russians. America was behind assigning Russia the task of killing and destruction in Syria... and also behind excluding European countries, especially Britain and France, from intervening in the resolution of the Syrian crisis. Meanwhile, Russia was confident that this international function would automatically transform it into an influential state on the international stage. However, it was surprised whenever America refused to include it in other issues. Even regarding the Ukrainian crisis, which is extremely sensitive for Russia, America believes that its cooperation with Russia in Syria does not lead to recognition of Russian interests in Ukraine; Syria is one issue, and Ukraine is another.
Thus, Russia emerged internationally due to its intervention in Syria and brought its military back to the forefront. Despite the criticism from some politicians in Washington regarding this international partnership policy—as seen in the document signed by fifty diplomats in the US State Department calling for a unilateral solution to the Syrian crisis (i.e., without Russia)—the utilization of Russia was the established policy in Washington. This American policy and the resulting prominence of Russia on the international arena caused great resentment in Western Europe.
Second: Russia saw its international status enhanced because of Syria, and felt the mantle of greatness had returned to it through its military and the Kerry-Lavrov meetings regarding Syria. Consequently, it fell completely in line with America in isolating Europe from Syria. It was pleased with America’s restriction of the crisis to the two of them, especially since it is an intruding party in America’s sphere of influence by assignment from Washington. However, internationally, Russia appeared—just like America—to be indifferent to the major powers in Europe. The European countries might have expected Russia not to follow Washington's lead, but rather to assist them in breaking American hegemony over the international situation. Thus, Russia's total compliance with America greatly angered Europe.
Third: America was the primary wall isolating Europe from the Syrian crisis, restricting the matter to itself and Russia. However, recently, a crack appeared in this wall through which Europe hoped to penetrate the Syrian crisis as follows:
During the past months, America was hastening its steps to achieve an accomplishment in resolving the crisis in Syria, aiming for a success to be credited to the soon-to-depart President Obama, and to support the campaign of the Democrat Hillary Clinton in the US presidential elections. Thus, the American-Russian agreements occurred, and Russia intensified its brutal bombing of the city of Aleppo, the latest of which was the US-Russian agreement to cease hostilities in Syria on 9-9-2016.
The people of Syria rejected the agreement, meaning they rejected the American plan. Every sincere revolutionary followed them in this; even those with a shred of dignity could not tolerate the humiliation of the agreement and rejected it. This rejection reached its peak with the refusal to cooperate with the American special forces that Erdogan introduced as part of the "Euphrates Shield" operation. America saw it fit to intensify the bombing on Aleppo even more brutally, hoping to affect the people of Syria and its resistance so they would accept the American plan or a significant part of it, so that a success could be recorded for Obama before the end of his term. Because America presents itself as being with the opposition, it escalated tension with Russia to appear as though it opposed the brutal Russian bombing... until the American announcement of ending cooperation with Russia in Syria.
Thus, a verbal exchange emerged between Russia and America that reached its peak in the General Assembly meetings in New York on September 20 and 22, 2016. This renewed American predicament in Syria and America’s inclination towards a "truce-seeker’s break"—meaning the failure of the Kerry-Lavrov settlements and America’s announcement that it was looking for other options—was the crack that Europe witnessed in the American wall. The European countries in New York cheered during the General Assembly meetings for the end of the Kerry-Lavrov formula for solving the Syrian crisis, and they began to exploit this strongly to have a role alongside America in the Syrian crisis. Then they began to widen the gap between themselves and Russia in the hope of convincing America to push Russia away from Syria; this is the source of the new tension between Europe and Russia.
Fourth: In the face of this new atmosphere and Europe seeing the crack in the American wall, it was natural for European statements and initiatives to begin attempting to enter the Syrian crisis, led by France. This included:
With America’s official announcement of the end of US cooperation with Russia in Syria, France pushed forward. A French project was announced in the Security Council to impose a cessation of hostilities, and Russia was the target. France prepared for this project with Foreign Minister Ayrault’s visit to Moscow on October 5 and 6, 2016, to convince the Russian side of the French project. The French project called for a no-fly zone over Aleppo, which was the opposite of previous American-Russian understandings about the necessity of continuing more bombing to subdue the revolutionaries. Therefore, Russia was embarrassed during the French minister’s visit; on one hand, it said the French project oversimplified things, and on the other hand, it was wary of rejecting it. In continuation of France's efforts to make its project succeed, its foreign minister also visited Washington after Moscow to ensure American support for the project in the Security Council.
Russia aborted all French efforts with a veto in the Security Council on 8-10-2016. Thus, tension flared between Russia and France, and with it the European countries that saw Russia as a new wall preventing them from entering the Syrian crisis. It was as if America had deliberately created the crack in its wall and whetted the appetite of European countries after ensuring Russia's steadfastness in the role assigned to it by America.
The scheduled visit of Russian President Putin to Paris on 19-10-2016 coincided with this tension in Russian-French relations. Although it was a private visit to open a Russian cultural center and an Orthodox church, it had been agreed that the French President would join Putin during the opening ceremony. Due to that tension, the French President took the initiative on 10-10-2016 to announce his hesitation in receiving Putin during that private visit, while the Kremlin in Moscow was announcing that arrangements were continuing as usual for the Russian President’s visit. Thus, Russia found itself in an embarrassing position as France announced that the French President would only discuss the Syrian crisis with Putin during the visit and would not join him in the opening ceremony that was scheduled as a courtesy. (The French leader said that he only considered the possibility of the Russian counterpart's visit to Paris on the basis that it aimed exclusively at discussing the Syrian file, saying: "I do not intend to accompany Putin during the ceremony [opening the Russian cultural center] but I am ready to continue discussing the problems of Syria exclusively, and this is what I confirmed to the Russian President") (Russia Today, 11-10-2016). Russia became angry, and it was announced in Moscow on 11-10-2016 that the Russian President's visit to Paris was canceled. Thus, French-Russian tension reached a high degree between the two countries.
The French escalation continued: (Paris: A local French newspaper reported that French President Francois Hollande said he does not intend to ease pressure on Russia because of its support for the Syrian government in its fight against the opposition, but he is still ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing war.) (Reuters Arabic, 16-10-2016)
(French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly criticized on Thursday 20-10-2016 the air strikes carried out by Russia and the Syrian regime on the city of Aleppo during a joint press conference with Merkel at the conclusion of the French-German-Russian summit in Berlin. Hollande described these raids as a "war crime"... For her part, Merkel described the Russian and Syrian raids on Aleppo as "inhumane"...) (BBC Arabic, 20-10-2016).
- These are the reasons for the rising heat in French-Russian relations, as they have come to the forefront of events, especially the Syrian crisis... particularly since France, like Russia, is not good at political maneuvers; that is, tension leads to more tension and may reach a level of strain in the relations of the two countries...
Fifth: As for the impact of the tension in Russian-French relations on European relations in general and the repercussions of those relations, it is as follows:
- The Russian-French tension is a tension in Russia's relations with the whole of Europe, especially the influential European countries, Britain and to some extent Germany. France's position and its resolution in the Security Council represent the European Union, including Britain, which is still a member. In fact, Britain coordinates its policy with France to a large extent. France, with its usual impulsiveness and reckless boldness, represents the spearhead for the European Union and for Britain in particular in international policies. This is most indicated by the speed with which the Russian-French tension turned into British tension with Russia. "Immediately after the Security Council vote, the British representative emphasized in his speech that the Russian veto represents the 'shame' that we know regarding Russia's actions" (Al Arabiya Net, 8-10-2016). Also, Middle East Online reported on 11-10-2016 (Johnson told Parliament "If Russia continues on its current path, I believe this great country is at risk of becoming a rogue state," calling on anti-war groups to protest outside the Russian embassy. He continued, "All available evidence points to Russia's responsibility for this horrific act," referring to an attack on a humanitarian aid convoy.) Russia responded the following day according to the Russian Sputnik on 12-10-2016 (The Russian Ministry of Defense considered that Johnson's allegations result from a neuropsychiatric illness that afflicts those who harbor hostility towards others. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that Johnson's allegations represent symptoms of "anti-Russian hysteria, which accompanies some British political leaders")... then there is that statement we mentioned earlier: (Hollande described these raids as a "war crime"... for her part, Merkel described the Russian and Syrian raids on Aleppo as "inhumane"...) (BBC Arabic, 20-10-2016).
In other words, the tension with Russia is rolling to include the European Union, and voices are rising in Europe calling for pressure on Russia and the imposition of new sanctions on it because of Syria. Thus, France, Britain, and the rest of the European countries are moving towards further straining their relations with Russia, expressing their rejection of Russia and its policies. All of this is in the hope that these countries will have a place in the Syrian crisis as the number one international issue. There is no good for Muslims in the intentions of these countries; for European countries, the issue is not the massacres committed by Russia against Muslims in Syria—since the positions of these countries were characterized by much indifference to the blood flowing in rivers in Syria for six years—rather, the issue is that these countries participate as "great powers" in solving the Syrian issue.
Events in the European Union have accelerated according to the tension in French-Russian relations. (Britain and France called on the European Union to condemn the Russian air campaign in Syria and impose more sanctions on Moscow... French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said that pressure on Russia must be strong, noting that the European Union showing a united position enables progress in stopping what he described as massacres of the population in Aleppo. Britain and France want to impose a travel ban on twenty other Syrians, as well as add 12 Russians to the sanctions list that includes two hundred others, including three Iranians, for their role in the ongoing conflict in Syria...) (Al Jazeera, 17-10-2016)... Also, the issue of financial sanctions has begun to be practiced without issuing a decision on sanctions. (Russia Today news network announced that a British bank froze all its bank accounts, without explaining the reason behind this decision... Russia Today quoted editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan as saying—in a tweet via her account on Twitter—"They closed all our accounts in Britain, all accounts! And the decision is final"...) (Al Jazeera, 17-10-2016)... (European leaders discuss their relations with Russia in Brussels on Thursday 20-10-2016, and among the options on the table is imposing sanctions on Moscow for its actions in Syria...) (Reuters Arabic, 19-10-2016).
If the tension in French and European relations with Russia increases, the door of conflict between Russia and Europe will widen, and its repercussions may appear in Ukraine or any other region in Eastern Europe, and European countries may impose sanctions on Russia. The reasons for increasing tension in Russian relations with Europe are many and are not limited to the Syrian crisis, despite its international importance. If Russia does not take the initiative to act rationally in dealing with Europe, it will be the biggest loser from the deterioration of its relations with Europe. In light of its prominence in the Syrian crisis, Russia is not showing sufficient rationality in its international relations. At a time when the world is talking about war crimes in Syria, Russia returns and increases the pace of its bombing of Aleppo. This stems from the political short-sightedness of the Russians; they are reassured today about their relations with America and they know that the apparent tension in Russian relations with America regarding Syria is not real. Amidst this tension, the US State Department announced a meeting between Kerry and Lavrov in Lausanne, and it was actually held on 15-10-2016 after involving some followers and associates to save face because it had previously announced the suspension of meetings with Russia and now it is meeting with it! At the same time, it excludes Europe from attending!
It seems that Russia has realized the predicament it has fallen into, as America made it the spearhead in the brutal bombing, and Europe exploited this artificial tension between America and Russia, escalating the situation against the brutal Russian attacks. Russia wanted to alleviate this European pressure, so it began talking about the issue of a truce. (Russia announced a "humanitarian truce" during which it would stop its bombing of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Russia said it would stop its bombing of the city of Aleppo during next Thursday 20-10-2016 for eight hours, starting from eight o'clock in the morning local time "five o'clock GMT" until four o'clock in the afternoon... This step comes in conjunction with news of the killing of 14 people from one family during an air bombardment of Aleppo...) (BBC Arabic, 17-10-2016)... Putin also agreed to discuss the Syrian issue with the Europeans after he had previously refused it with Hollande. (The French presidency announced yesterday that French President Francois Hollande, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold a "working meeting" dealing with the Syrian crisis today, Wednesday, in Berlin...) (Agencies, Al-Khaleej newspaper, 19-10-2016).
- Thus, the tension occurring in French-Russian relations has reflected on the countries of the European Union, and consequently Russia has become in a predicament with Europe. It is trying to find a way out of this predicament, so it meets with the European Union and discusses the Syrian crisis after it refused to discuss it with Hollande, which caused the cancellation of Putin's visit and an escalation in the heat of events beyond what they were...
Sixth: As for whether these events will result in a change in the regional or international parties related to the Syrian crisis... it is not expected that a change will occur. The effective international parties will remain the same; that is, America and its subordinates Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia remain. As for the European Union, its luck is not significant. The proof of this is that despite the escalation in Europe's tone against Russia and its persistent attempt to get closer to America to have a role in the Syrian crisis, America called for the Lausanne meeting on 15-10-2016 and excluded Europe from attending. Russia was alongside America in the conference despite what America was showing of a break with Russia and tension in relations! When America noticed that Europe was annoyed by this matter, it called for a pacification meeting on 16-10-2016 with Europe without the attendance of other parties, exchanged conversation with them, and the meeting ended as it began...
- Therefore, it is most likely that the international role in the Syrian crisis will remain restricted to America, its tool Russia, and then the subordinates.
This is from the perspective of international and regional parties; they plot and scheme, but in Ash-Sham and elsewhere, there are men sincere to Allah the Almighty and truthful to the Messenger of Allah ﷺ who will not enable America, Russia, and the subordinates to achieve their plotting and their evil plans to stabilize in Ash-Sham. Rather, their state, by the permission of Allah, will be like their predecessors:
قَدْ مَكَرَ الَّذِينَ مِنْ قَبْلِهِمْ فَأَتَى اللَّهُ بُنْيَانَهُمْ مِنَ الْقَوَاعِدِ فَخَرَّ عَلَيْهِمُ السَّقْفُ مِنْ فَوْقِهِمْ وَأَتَاهُمُ الْعَذَابُ مِنْ حَيْثُ لَا يَشْعُرُونَ
"Those before them indeed plotted, but Allah struck at the foundation of their building, and then the roof fell down upon them from above them, and the torment overtook them from directions they did not perceive." (QS. An-Nahl [16]: 26)
19th of Muharram Al-Haram, 1438 AH Corresponding to 20-10-2016 CE