Media outlets reported that the Turkish government received approval from the United States—the occupying power in Iraq, including Iraqi Kurdistan—to conduct its military campaign in Northern Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan). Official Turkish and American sources confirmed this. Although the security of occupied Iraq, including Kurdistan, is the responsibility of the United States, it has allowed Turkey to launch a military campaign against it!
Does this mean that America has "sold out" Iraqi Kurdistan for its interests in Turkey, which are more significant to America than Iraqi Kurdistan?
The Answer:
It is true that Iraq is occupied by America, and external aggression against Iraq is considered "aggression" against America in some aspects. Consequently, America would typically not allow any country to launch a war against Iraq as long as America occupies it.
It is also true that Turkey is important to America, but Iraq and its Kurdistan region are also important, even if the degrees of importance differ. However, what is not true is the claim that "America sold out Iraqi Kurdistan for its interests in Turkey." America's interests are secured in Turkey through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, and its interests are also secured in Iraq and its Kurdistan region because the Iraqi government is an American creation...
As for America allowing the Turkish government to conduct its military campaign in Northern Iraq, it is an effort to consolidate these interests in both countries, Turkey and Iraq, rather than selling one out at the expense of the other.
As for how this is the case, it is as follows:
Since America abandoned Abdullah Öcalan and handed him over to the Turkish authorities—following the famous deal America managed with Turkey to protect Syria—and after the pro-American Justice and Development Party came to power in Turkey, the strategy of America, and subsequently the AKP government, has been to handle the Kurdish issue as a political matter... Negotiations and visits by Turkish government officials to Turkish Kurdish regions began, followed by cultural talks regarding Kurdish-language programs in the media.
On the other hand, the senior military leaders, who are English-aligned, continued to treat the Kurdish issue as a security matter. They exploit it to stir up trouble for the AKP government whenever they notice an increase in the weight of Erdogan's government and, consequently, an increase in American influence in Turkey at the expense of the influence of the English-aligned secularists in the military.
Before the AKP government and the increase of American influence in Turkey, the English-aligned Kemalists in the army used to carry out coups against any Turkish government they saw deviating from the English-aligned Kemalist line in Turkey... The repeated coups carried out by the army in the latter half of the last century are well-known.
Although the AKP government is clearly and visibly pro-American, and although it is "clipping the wings" of the English-aligned Kemalists in the military through legislation—as it did with the National Security Council, the judicial council (the High Constitutional Court), the election of the President, and so on—the military has been unable to carry out a coup. This is due to the atmosphere of civil (democratic) rule that America has emphasized in Turkey, which the AKP government has loudly championed, as well as the government's direction toward the European Union forces to facilitate its accession... All of this has distanced the possibility of a military coup, if not permanently, then at least for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, the military resorted to the military-security exploitation of the Kurdish issue, specifically the wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) whose bases are in Northern Iraq. This wing adopts military action, not just political action, to address the Kurdish issue in Turkey, unlike the other wing. The PKK wing in Northern Iraq has links to Barzani, who has an English background; thus, it aligns with the English-aligned secularists of the Turkish military in terms of military-security provocation, even if their objectives differ. Meanwhile, Talabani and his party are pro-American. Consequently, the PKK wing is located in the northern regions adjacent to Barzani's areas, not in Talabani's areas.
The military intended to embarrass the AKP government with the United States, which occupies Iraq. The military conducting a military operation against the PKK in Iraq (Kurdistan) would affect the American relationship with the AKP government. The more the military intervention expands, the more the American-Turkish relationship is destabilized, thereby weakening the AKP government and putting it in a dilemma.
For this reason, the English-aligned secularist military leaders prepared the stage. They sent foot patrols or light vehicles without adequate protection (as happened late last year) near hot border sites close to PKK positions in Iraq... This led to the killing and capture of several Turkish soldiers. The military's media outlets then began "magnifying" what happened, calling it an insult to the army and claiming that a large-scale military operation in Northern Iraq was necessary to strike PKK bases. They hinted, almost explicitly, at accusing the AKP government of not valuing the blood or the capture of the soldiers, which created public opinion in favor of attacking PKK strongholds in Iraq and then condemned the government's inaction.
The government began to procrastinate on the matter. However, when the outcry over the killed and captured soldiers increased—in addition to other incidents, whether fabricated or real, in various areas attributed to PKK fighters—the government was forced to act. It presented a law to Parliament, which was passed, approving a military operation at a time the government deems appropriate.
This acted as a "pressure valve," though it was not decisive because it did not specify a time, leaving it to the government's discretion.
The English-aligned secularists in the military believed that launching a massive military campaign in Iraqi Kurdistan, occupied by the Americans, would cause a heated crisis for the government with America if it agreed to enter the army into Iraq. On the other hand, if it did not agree to enter the army into Iraq to avoid clashing with America, a heated crisis would occur for the government before Turkish public opinion because it did not avenge the soldiers' blood! In both cases, the English-aligned military leaders, who consider themselves the guardians of English-aligned Kemalism, saw a heated crisis arising for the AKP government.
However, Erdogan's recent visit to America, followed by political meetings in Ankara and at the US military headquarters in Baghdad, resulted in an agreement. America would permit the Turkish government to conduct a military campaign limited in time and space. This allows the government to appear as though it does not accept "injustice" or the wasting of its soldiers' blood. Simultaneously, it works to finally "defuse" the plan of the English-aligned military leaders.
Thus, the campaign began in an atmosphere of support from America, Talabani, and Al-Maliki; only the Barzani government in Northern Iraq grumbled about it, while Europe condemned it shyly.
The expected outcome is as follows:
On the part of the army: The army will try to expand the scope to clash with the forces of the Kurdistan government (Barzani's), thereby reshuffling the cards, heating up the Turkish government's dilemma with America, and activating European intervention in the matter—resulting in a violent shock to the AKP government.
On the other side: America will work with the AKP government and supporting parties in Iraq to keep the operation limited in time and space. It will then announce that it has achieved its objectives and withdraw, thereby allowing the AKP government to score points in its favor.
- It is most likely that the factors necessitating a limited campaign and preventing its expansion are the strongest. These factors are: America, the AKP government, and certain supporting parties in Iraq. Additionally, a fourth important factor is the harsh conditions—whether weather-related, such as snow, which hinders expansion, or geological, such as the mountainous terrain, which exposes the Turkish army to losses.
It is clear that these factors are more influential in restricting the campaign to a limited space and time.
The AKP government may score points in its favor during this campaign, except in two cases:
First: If matters spiral out of control and the fighting extends in time and space.
Second: If a significant and striking number of Turkish soldiers are killed.
In these two cases, a crisis would occur that puts the AKP government in a dilemma.
For this reason, we said "most likely," as the possibility of these two cases remains present, even if it is less probable.
In conclusion, when America permitted Turkey to launch its military campaign against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, it did not, by this permission, abandon either Kurdistan or Turkey. Rather, it granted permission to protect its interests in Turkey, as well as its interests in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan.
19 Safar al-Khayr 1429 AH 25/02/2008 CE