Question:
The Turkish President expressed his strong rejection of any demographic change within Syrian territory. This came during a speech he delivered on the sidelines of his participation in an Iftar banquet at the Presidential Palace, held for foreign ambassadors accredited to Ankara on the evening of Thursday, July 9, 2015, as reported by the Haber 7 website... referring to his previous statement reported by the Anadolu Agency on June 26, 2015, where he said: "We will never allow the establishment of a state in northern Syria on our southern border, and our struggle in this path will continue regardless of the cost." He added: "What is happening in Syria and Iraq is an attempt to reproduce a new Sykes-Picot system in the region, aiming to incite domestic public opinion against Turkey." This was followed by media reports of Turkey reinforcing its defensive capabilities, etc. The question is: What is the reality of what is happening? Is it truly for a Turkish military intervention in northern Syria, or is it for another purpose? And what is the reality of the American position regarding military intervention?
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following points:
The Turkish President stated: "We will never allow the establishment of a state in northern Syria on our southern border, and our struggle in this path will continue regardless of the cost." He also said: "What is happening in Syria and Iraq is an attempt to reproduce a new Sykes-Picot system in the region, aiming to incite domestic public opinion against Turkey" (Anadolu Agency, June 26, 2015). Following this, on July 2, 2015, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Kanal 7: "We have taken measures to protect the borders, and there are orders to act if any circumstances arise that threaten the country's security." He added that no one should imagine that Turkey will enter tomorrow or in the near future. He confirmed this on July 3, 2015, in an interview with Konya TV, saying: "It is not correct to expect Turkey to intervene immediately in Syria in a practical sense; however, Turkey is in a state of readiness to face any potential threat from the Syrian side and is closely monitoring all developments." He said: "Lest anyone be preoccupied, we are not being dragged into an adventure."
Thus, the statements fluctuated between booming with intervention at one time and ruling it out at another. This was followed by the same pattern of conflicting reports and denials. The Turkish newspaper Hürriyet reported on July 5, 2015, that "The General Staff summoned the commanders of the border units and the commanders of the two commando brigades in the provinces of Bolu and Kayseri to discuss a potential operation following recent developments on the Turkish-Syrian border." However, the General Staff denied this news. Anadolu Agency quoted military sources on July 6, 2015, saying: "The claims regarding the summoning of border unit and commando (Special Forces) commanders to the General Staff headquarters against the backdrop of developments on the Syrian side of the border do not reflect the truth. No such meeting took place as claimed, and there is no plan in this regard."
These conflicting statements were accompanied—with a "sporting" spirit—by military movement. Media outlets reported news of Turkish buildups on the border with Syria, stating that Turkey had deployed more than 400 armored personnel carriers, in addition to the role of the air force to support such an intervention. It was reported that about 54,000 soldiers had been deployed along its border with Syria, and that it had reinforced its defensive capabilities along the border by deploying tanks, anti-aircraft missiles, and troops after battles escalated north of the city of Aleppo. Not only this, but the exaggeration in publishing this news reached a point as if the intervention was already stepping in, not just looking in! Some media outlets began leaking news, possibly prepared by official parties, regarding Turkey's future plans. The Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak mentioned on June 28, 2015, that "The Turkish General Staff has drawn up a military plan for intervention in Syria aimed at preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Syria or its imposition as a fait accompli. This plan includes the establishment of a buffer zone with a depth of 28-33 km, extending from Karkamış to Öncüpınar with a length of 110 km. The plan includes sending 18,000 soldiers to Syria for two years after obtaining the support of the international community. If it does not obtain international approval, it will act alone to establish a buffer zone similar to what Israel did in southern Lebanon."
Anyone reflecting on these news reports and other circulating information will find that they are closer to internal domestic purposes than to actual interventionist purposes, for the following reasons:
a. The advancement of the Kurds in northern Syria, which the Turkish government tried to suggest the current military preparations are intended to prevent, was actually aided by the Turkish government when it allowed the Peshmerga to enter Ayn al-Arab (Kobane) through Turkish territory to support the Kurds by fighting with them... The same applies to Tal Abyad. The newspaper Habertürk (July 4, 2015) quoted one of its journalists who met with a high-ranking Turkish official: "Yesterday, a group of journalists and I were in a meeting with a high-ranking official in the Turkish government, and he confirmed to us that the government will not target the Democratic Union Party (PYD) at all." The official indicated that "the possibility of the PYD controlling the area between Afrin and Kobane—in other words, the formation of a Kurdish corridor on the Turkish border—is out of the question at the current stage." He said: "The PYD's control over Tal Abyad is in Turkey's interest, but acting upon the areas controlled by the party based on the principle of 'conquests' will create many conflicts and problems in the region in the medium and long term." This means that the issue between the Turkish government and the Kurds in northern Syria is not heated enough to warrant a military war.
b. America has not made a decision for ground military intervention yet; it is still searching for the next agent to replace the current agent Bashar, and the sincere people in Syria have frustrated its efforts so far. We ask Allah that the sincere efforts continue to frustrate those attempts... The reality dictates that the outcries of Erdogan and his government remain merely noise without effectiveness unless America agrees (or commands), and the evidence for this is plenty:
- The ruling regime in Turkey has demanded the establishment of safe or security zones inside Syria more than once, and America rejected it. Davutoglu mentioned in October 2014 that it is possible to establish a buffer zone by taking the M4 land route. This line starts from the borders of Latakia and extends to Hasakah, with a length of 720 km and a depth of about 70 km, which means one-third of Syrian territory. America rejected it, so it was not implemented... Recently, talk has returned that Turkey is looking into establishing security zones in the form of pockets, the first pocket extending between Jarabulus and Ayn al-Arab. Local reports stated that Turkish President Erdogan is considering establishing a buffer zone on the border following the control of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan over border areas with Turkey. The American response came from White House spokesperson John Kirby, who stated: "The Pentagon and the US military or the coalition do not currently feel a need to establish a buffer zone, and there are difficulties in that. But we recognize Turkey's concern for its borders." (Reuters, June 30, 2015)... The Turkish government tried to avoid this embarrassment caused by the firm American rejection. Ibrahim Kalin, assistant to the Turkish Prime Minister, said on June 30, 2015: "Interpreting the measures we are taking related to border security as Turkey participating in the war is illogical." He said: "At no point did we say we wanted a buffer zone; rather, we said we want safe zones where flying is prohibited. Safe zones must be established." (Anadolu Agency, June 30, 2015). Despite this, neither safe zones nor buffer zones have been achieved so far because America did not approve!
- Likewise, Erdogan's famous statements that he would not allow a "second Hama" to be repeated have been so long ago that they are almost forgotten! This is while the criminal Bashar regime has committed a second, third, and fourth Hama in every city and town, continuing the killing and destruction with an American green light, Russian support, and direct Iranian intervention with its party in Lebanon... Despite all this, Erdogan and his regime have done nothing, because his will is mortgaged to the American will, which has not permitted him to carry out his statements. They remained dust scattered by the wind, without even the rising dust from the horses of Allah whose rider says, "Mount up and seek Allah's favor," to restore the glories of Al-Mu'tasim in Ankara's Amorium and Al-Fatih in today's Istanbul (Constantinople)...!
Thus, those military buildups are not intended for actual military intervention in Syria unless America agrees when it serves its interests... The most likely scenario is that these buildups are intended for local public opinion for the following considerations:
a. The aforementioned statements of the Turkish Prime Minister are explicit that Turkey is not about to intervene in Syria and that it considers intervention an "adventure," but it is ready to face any potential threat if it comes from Syria. Meaning, it wants to defend its borders and not penetrate the Sykes-Picot borders which its president, Erdogan, mentioned they are maintaining.
b. There are notable voices internally that have begun to fear the establishment of a Kurdish entity in Syria. These voices believe that this will encourage the PKK to return to military action against Turkey after its operations stopped since March 2013, when the party's leader, Ocalan, called from his prison for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of his party's armed elements outside Turkey, and the start of a peace process... Consequently, these military buildups help in silencing and calming these voices...
c. After Erdogan lost his majority in the elections and the rise of opposition voices denouncing Erdogan's turbulent position in Syria, in addition to the fact that the possibility of early elections is on the table if Davutoglu cannot form a government within the legal timeframe—all of this prompted Erdogan and the government in Turkey to perform a theatrical display that the government is concerned about its security and that it is still strong, thinking that this will restore the unity of public opinion with them...
The conclusion is that these actions and buildups are directed at winning over and calming domestic public opinion more than they are directed at actual military intervention in northern Syria. However, these buildups will become directed for intervention in Syria if America sees that this serves its plans in Syria... We ask Allah, the All-Powerful, the All-Mighty, to frustrate the plans of America and its agents, and to turn them back on their heels, achieving no good.