Question:
Sources within the Afghan Taliban movement have spoken of significant progress in their six-day negotiations with the US envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, in Doha. They stated that America would withdraw its forces within 18 months of finalizing the agreement. Although the Doha agreement remains a draft mentioned in various statements and is not yet binding—and another round of negotiations is scheduled for the 25th of this month (February 2019), as reported by Reuters on January 27, 2019—the central question remains: Has the Taliban movement, after all these long years of Jihad, fallen into the American trap? How did this happen? And where are things headed? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
At the outset, I remind you of the previous Q&A titled "America's Strategy in Afghanistan" dated August 16, 2017. In it, we explained that America, along with its NATO allies, has failed to achieve a military victory in Afghanistan and that many Afghan regions have effectively come under the control of the Taliban movement. We highlighted the inability of the puppet Afghan government to fight this American war, barely controlling the capital and a few other areas. We also mentioned in that Q&A that the Trump administration was reviewing its policies in Afghanistan, noting: "This review is moving toward a major 'cooling down' of the Afghan arena, restricting the American presence to military bases for use in times of danger, and framing its mission as being against the 'Islamic State'..." We added: "To facilitate enticing the Taliban to accept, America will return to activating the Pakistani role, where the new military leadership in Pakistan will show more flexibility and sympathy toward the Taliban to push them to sit and negotiate with the puppet government in Kabul and participate in the American political system in Afghanistan... After America realized its limited options in Afghanistan and the failure of the Indian option, it resorted to negotiating with the Taliban movement in hopes of integrating it into the American-led governance in Afghanistan. It used its agents in the Pakistani government to drag the Taliban leaders into negotiations... Nevertheless, all those attempts failed; America succeeded neither militarily nor politically regarding Afghanistan." End quote. However, America did not lose hope in achieving this, relying on its agents in the region, especially since America's military and financial suffering in Afghanistan has become a nightmare for it. Reviewing the American crisis in Afghanistan, the following becomes clear:
First: America is suffering from a massive debt that threatens its economy, which suffered a crisis in 2008 whose repercussions are still ongoing. It believes it has spent approximately seven trillion dollars on wars in the Middle East—meaning in Muslim lands—and gained nothing from them, as stated by its President, Trump. He wrote on his Twitter account on December 22, 2017, saying: "After foolishly spending $7 trillion in the Middle East, it is time to start rebuilding our country!" The BBC reported on January 9, 2016, citing the American magazine Forbes, that: "The war in Afghanistan has cost America so far about one trillion and 70 billion dollars, in addition to the killing of more than 2,400 American soldiers and the wounding of tens of thousands with injuries, disfigurements, and permanent disabilities. Despite these massive human and financial losses, America has failed to eliminate the movement..."
Second: After America failed to eliminate the movement militarily, it saw no way forward except to drag the Taliban into negotiations as the only American option to exit the Afghan war without appearing defeated. This option has become the operational American strategy in Afghanistan. Confirming the vitality of this option for America, the US State Department appointed Zalmay Khalilzad on September 5, 2018, as its envoy to Afghanistan with a specific mission: "The US State Department summarized Khalilzad's mission in a previous statement as coordinating and directing American efforts aimed at ensuring the Taliban sits at the negotiating table... (Anadolu Agency, January 12, 2019)." Therefore, America has pursued a single option: pushing and pressuring the Taliban to sit at the negotiating table. This American vision for exiting the Afghan war is not new; America initially tried to create a negotiation line between the Taliban and the regime, but those attempts failed. Thus, the negotiations shifted to being directly with America after it had wanted them to be between the Taliban and the Afghan regime it established, which the movement had rejected because it saw the government as a puppet in America's hands. Now, it has agreed to negotiate with America, even though America is the founder of that regime!
Third: It is worth noting and reflecting that, in order to convince the Taliban to enter peace negotiations, America prepared the atmosphere in its malicious way. it carried out internal actions in Afghanistan and regional ones through its agents and others around Afghanistan:
Focusing American raids on Taliban leaders, especially those who reject negotiations: "US officials said the United States launched a drone strike last Saturday against the leader of the Afghan Taliban, Akhtar Mansour... The US Department of Defense (Pentagon) described Akhtar Mansour as an 'obstacle to peace and reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban'... (Donia Al-Watan, May 22, 2016)." This means he was targeted for rejecting negotiations. This was during the Obama administration, and America continued in the same vein during the Trump administration: "The NATO mission 'Resolute Support' said in a press release this Wednesday evening: 'Two Taliban commanders were killed in Kapisa province in a US strike to support Afghan special security forces in Tagab district on July 22.' (Sputnik Arabic, July 25, 2018)." Another incident followed where another Taliban leader was killed: "Colonel Dave Butler, spokesman for US forces in Afghanistan, said: 'We can confirm a US airstrike was conducted yesterday that resulted in the death of Taliban leader Mullah Manan,' adding: 'We are driving toward a political solution... (CNN Arabic, December 2, 2018)."
Iran extended its hand to the Taliban movement, and the latter thought it was safe, assuming Iran was a "state hostile to America." Some of its leaders sought refuge there, failing to learn that the assassination of their leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, while returning from Iran and on its borders, was likely coordinated between America and Iran. They continued to trust Iran, yet Iran only pushed them toward the American political solution: "Iran said that representatives of the Afghan Taliban movement held negotiations with Iranian officials in Tehran last Sunday as the Islamic Republic seeks to push peace talks in the neighboring country to curb the influence of other Islamic groups. Bahram Qassemi, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated on Monday that the talks took place with the knowledge of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and aimed to outline negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government... (Euronews, December 31, 2018)."
Qatar opened an office for the Taliban movement in Doha. The latter thought Qatar's recognition strengthened it, but Qatar openly stated that this office was opened in coordination with America for the purpose of negotiations with the Taliban. Qatar said during its crisis with the "blockading" countries: "The statements of former CIA director David Petraeus are sufficient when he mentioned that the meeting of the Taliban and Hamas in Doha was at the request of the US government, and this in itself proves that Qatar did not commit anything to hide, and this was with everyone's knowledge and not behind their backs... also, the presence of Hamas and the Taliban in Doha was at the request of the United States of America to find a way out for the Palestinian cause and for the Taliban" (Al-Sharq Qatari Newspaper, July 4, 2017). Qatar deludes the Taliban into thinking it is on their side and supports them, and the latter fell into this trap. When the situation worsened for Qatar due to the "blockading" countries and it began pleading with the Trump administration and paying money to protect its regime, Qatar—the British agent—increased its compliance with America to push the Taliban into negotiations, hoping the Trump administration would alleviate the Saudi threats. Thus, America made the service of pushing the Taliban into peace negotiations a matter of competition among the feuding mini-states in the Gulf. The UAE competes with Qatar by dragging the negotiations to Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia drags them to Jeddah. Reuters also quoted a Taliban military commander involved in the negotiations, who requested anonymity: "In fact, the differences between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have completely destroyed the peace process." He continued: "The Saudis are pressuring us unnecessarily for a ceasefire declaration... (Sputnik Arabic, January 14, 2019)." Through this tension, which outwardly appears as contradiction and disagreement, the Taliban found itself pulled by three Gulf ropes, seemingly contradictory but all pulling in one direction: negotiations with America. The American agents in Saudi Arabia compete with the British agents in the UAE and Qatar to see who can serve America first and gain its approval. During this competition in falsehood, the Taliban is being trapped and its direction unified toward American negotiations and a political solution. Britain does not oppose Qatar's direction in this regard as it serves as a defense for the Qatari regime, while the UAE was placed by Britain in the front lines with American agents for other purposes.
As for Pakistan, which is the "balancing weight" for the Taliban, after abandoning the movement and the fierce battles its army launched against the Pakistani Taliban, it began softening the atmosphere with the movement and increasing contacts. With Imran Khan becoming Prime Minister on July 25, 2018, and his statements appearing to show closeness to the Afghan Taliban, more conditions were set for the Taliban to trust him, without realizing that this was a trap laid to catch them in American negotiations. Thus, the Taliban fell—or "allowed itself to fall"—into being stung from the same hole twice: the hole of the Pakistani government, which only executes American policy. It supported them in 1996 to rule Afghanistan, then abandoned them in the face of George W. Bush's onslaught in 2001 and beyond, and even participated in the American attack by pursuing the Taliban inside Pakistan. Now, when America failed to eliminate the Taliban and decided to return to negotiations as its only option for a solution and to maintain its influence, Islamabad returned to building its old bridges with the Taliban, but with a single goal: implementing the new American strategy and maintaining American influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban fell into the hole again! This is despite matters being clear: "Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan revealed today, Monday, that US President Donald Trump requested his help in the Afghan peace process. Pakistan's Geo TV quoted Khan as saying he 'received a letter from the US President earlier today, asking Pakistan to play a role in the Afghan peace talks and help bring the Taliban to the negotiating table'... (Sputnik Arabic, December 3, 2018)." Two days later, the Pakistani Prime Minister met with the US Special Envoy Khalilzad in Islamabad, confirming Pakistan's commitment to the US plan in Afghanistan: "For his part, Imran said that 'Pakistan wants a political settlement for Afghan peace and reconciliation'... (Masrawy, December 5, 2018)." Prime Minister Imran Khan confirmed on Tuesday: "His country will do everything in its power to promote the Afghan peace process, noting that his country contributed to the dialogue between the Taliban and the United States in Abu Dhabi recently... (Youm7, December 18, 2018)." Imran had exposed himself on his Twitter account on November 19, 2018, while defending Pakistan's services to America: "...Pakistan chose to participate in the US war on terror. Pakistan suffered 75,000 casualties in this war and lost more than $123 billion from its economy, while US aid was only $20 billion..." Likewise, former Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed the betrayal of Pakistan's rulers—being one of them—writing on his Twitter account on November 19, 2018: "Pakistan is still shedding blood for America because we fought wars that are not ours. We wasted the values of our religion to make it fit American interests and destroyed our tolerant spirit, replacing it with bigotry and intolerance." There is nothing more explicit than this: Pakistan fought a war that was not its own... shed the blood of Muslims for the sake of America... and wasted the values of its Islamic religion to serve American interests. Pakistan's role in Afghanistan resembles that of Turkey and its ruler Erdogan in Syria, and his services to America by pressuring the armed factions and subjecting them to American solutions, despite America insulting him several times!
These are the local conditions inside Afghanistan and the regional movements by America's agents and others that America was using to push the Taliban firmly toward negotiations and political solutions. Wherever the Taliban turned its face—to Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the UAE—it found itself walking on the track of American negotiations to preserve American influence in Afghanistan! However, if the Taliban reflected on America's desperation for negotiations and its pressure on its agents to exert every effort using twisted and malicious methods to convince the Taliban to accept... if they reflected on the depth of the crisis America has faced militarily and financially over 17 years of heroic Jihad by the Taliban... if they reflected on America's insistence on negotiating with them while it used to label them as terrorists, as is its habit of accusing anyone who resists its terrorism and arrogance of being a terrorist... if they reflected on all of that, they would see it as an unofficial declaration of America's defeat in Afghanistan. America wants to get out before these defeats topple it, exposing its weakness as a superpower that is collapsing. The obligation was to exploit this and press hard so that America would exit blamed and defeated, not for the Taliban to allow it a "warrior's rest" through negotiations. America cannot be trusted:
لَا يَرْقُبُونَ فِي مُؤْمِنٍ إِلّاً وَلَا ذِمَّةً وَأُولَئِكَ هُمُ الْمُعْتَدُونَ
"They do not observe toward a believer any pact of kinship or covenant of protection. And it is they who are the transgressors." (QS At-Tawbah [9]: 10)
It will not be satisfied with any concessions from the Taliban through negotiations unless American influence remains in Afghanistan, even if America's representatives smile in the Taliban's faces—for what their breasts hide is even greater!!
For all these reasons, it is painful that the Doha negotiations, which lasted six days, have become a prelude to progress in the negotiations, by the testimony of the Taliban movement itself:
a. "Speaking to Anadolu, Taliban leader Wahid Muzhda said that the two sides reached a significant understanding regarding the withdrawal of foreign forces and ensuring that Afghanistan does not pose a threat to any part of the world. He explained that the movement, for its part, seeks to ensure that the proposed peace process enjoys international protection. He added: 'The agreement was not finalized in Doha due to some technical issues and the drafting of the agreement'... (Anadolu Agency, January 26, 2019)."
b. Reuters reported on January 26, 2019, from Taliban officials: "They agreed on some terms with Washington to be included in the final agreement. One of these terms confirms that foreign forces must withdraw from Afghanistan within 18 months of signing the agreement in exchange for guarantees from the Taliban movement not to allow Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to use Afghan territory against America..." It is clear from the text on not allowing Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State... that America wants to give the Taliban a place in the system where it asks them for guarantees to stand against other organizations, wanting to use them for this purpose as well.
Likewise, the statements of American officials confirmed what came in the statements of Taliban officials:
a. "...and Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative, wrote on Twitter after six days of talks with the Taliban in Qatar: 'Meetings here were more productive than they have been in the past. We have made significant progress on vital issues.' (Deutsche Welle Arabic, January 26, 2019)."
b. Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan said on January 28, 2019, regarding peace talks with the Taliban: "I would say the conclusions that were drawn are encouraging... (Al-Hurra, January 28, 2019)."
Thus, the Doha draft agreement is considered a major breach in the Taliban's wall, which used to be solid before agent governments began softening it. Despite some reserved statements from the Taliban that it will not negotiate with the Kabul government, and similar American statements that the agreement must be on everything or nothing, the rush of both parties toward further rounds of negotiations is built on the momentum provided by the Doha negotiations and the firm push from agents. Therefore, it can be said that America finally, after 17 years of war, has begun to see light at the end of the tunnel to exit its predicament in Afghanistan... unless a current of sincere individuals within the Taliban rises up, blows this agreement away, makes it vanish into the wind, and extinguishes that light in which America saw a safe path to exit the Afghan war.
For this reason, it is duty of the Taliban and all the Mujahideen resisting the Crusader American and NATO occupation not to make concessions to America and its subordinate regime, not to get involved in it, and to maintain their resistance until America is forced to exit humiliated and broken. War is but patience for an hour; America did not accept negotiations except after its inability to break the will of the Mujahideen. Let them beware of falling into the swamp of negotiations, which for Americans and Westerners means a concession from the other side to gain through negotiations what they could not achieve through war—namely, defeating the opponent at the table without spilling a drop of blood or spending a penny! This is according to their pragmatic political concepts. America is a criminal aggressor that must be held accountable for its aggression and crimes; it has killed, wounded, left people disabled, displaced millions of Afghans, and destroyed the country. Its crimes are countless and match—even exceed—the crimes of the defunct Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Just as the Soviet Union was expelled humiliated and broken, such could be the fate of America if the Taliban remains steadfast in what they set out for in fighting America and being patient in it. Allah has promised the patient and the steadfast victory even if they are fewer than the enemy. The Almighty said:
الَّذِينَ يَظُنُّونَ أَنَّهُمْ مُلَاقُو اللَّهِ كَمْ مِنْ فِئَةٍ قَلِيلةٍ غَلَبَتْ فِئَةً كَثِيرَةً بِإِذْنِ اللَّهِ وَاللَّهُ مَعَ الصَّابِرِينَ
"Those who were certain that they would meet Allah said, 'How many a small company has overcome a large company by permission of Allah. And Allah is with the patient.'" (QS Al-Baqarah [2]: 249)
They must not accept participation in the existing puppet regime in Afghanistan, but rather work to demolish it and establish the rule of Islam, the Rightly Guided Khilafah upon the method of Prophethood, whose arrival was heralded by the Messenger of Allah ﷺ:
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ
"Then there will be a Khilafah (Caliphate) upon the method of Prophethood." (Musnad Ahmad)
لِمِثْلِ هَذَا فَلْيَعْمَلِ الْعَامِلُونَ
"For the like of this let the workers [on earth] work." (QS As-Saffat [37]: 61)
1st of Jumada al-Akhirah 1440 AH February 6, 2019 CE