Q&A
Question:
"Iran has signed a trilateral agreement with India and Afghanistan for joint cooperation in transit through the port of Chabahar, overlooking the Sea of Oman, southern Iran... This strategic agreement, aimed at creating an international transport corridor between the three countries, was signed... Chabahar is 100 kilometers (60 miles) away from the Gwadar seaport, which China is developing as part of the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project." (Al Arabiya, 24/05/2016). About a year earlier, on 20/04/2015, China and Pakistan had agreed to launch the Economic Corridor project... The question is: Are these projects merely economic projects despite their magnitude, or are they mixed with political motives? Furthermore, the countries in these projects are linked to America, with the exception of China. Does this mean that behind these projects is a plot against China to distract it away from the South China Sea and exhaust it economically in a corridor where, despite its importance, the economic return is not commensurate with the $46 billion cost? Finally, do the objectives of these projects extend beyond the signatory countries to others, such as the Central Asian countries? May Allah reward you with good, and I apologize for the length of the question.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
First: America's relationship with the countries participating in the two projects mentioned in the question:
When loyalty in India became pro-American during the era of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which came to power in 1998, fell in 2004, and then returned to power ten years later in 2014 under Modi’s leadership, American support became clear. Agreements between America and India escalated in various fields, especially nuclear, and it was clear that this was directed against China. As for Pakistan, loyalty has remained the same for America since the era of Nawaz Sharif's governments in the 1990s, through the rule of Pervez Musharraf, then Asif Zardari, to the current government of Nawaz Sharif. A rapprochement occurred between India and Pakistan due to their common loyalty to America. Pakistan has made concessions in favor of India regarding important matters based on American dictates to strengthen its agents in India and their positions toward China. America has assigned Pakistan the task of fighting Islamic movements internally and in the region, which is called the war on "terrorism and extremism." It was stated in a Q&A dated 09/06/2016: "Although the regime in India is loyal to America, just as the regime in Pakistan is also loyal to America, America's goal for the two countries is different. The goal for India is to form a spearhead in confronting China, while for Pakistan, the goal is to stand against the Pakistani and Afghan resistance against America..."
Regarding Iran, it also follows America and has admitted its cooperation with America in its occupation of Afghanistan, its assistance in achieving stability there, and its support for the puppet governments affiliated with America, such as the previous Karzai government and the current Ashraf Ghani government. Recently, the Turkish Akhbar al-Alam reported on 29/06/2016 (an interview by the newspaper Iran with Ali Akbar Velayati, the former Iranian Foreign Minister and currently the head of advisers to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), in which he admitted the relationship and cooperation between Iran and America. He said: "Iran held talks with America regarding Afghanistan... and in those talks, our permanent representative at the United Nations, who is currently Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif... and the largest part of Afghanistan was in the hands of the Taliban. In those circumstances, if it were not for Iran, the Americans would not have been able to enter Afghanistan..." He also said: "Something similar happened regarding the issue of Iraq, where Iran and America agreed; talks were held with the aim of participating in securing security in Iraq after the fall of Saddam..." Similar admissions were reported from Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian President, stating that all of this was with the permission of the religious authority (marji'iyya). He said, "The talks currently taking place between America and Iran are based on prior permission from the office of the Supreme Leader. Negotiations with America began through the mediation of Qaboos, the Sultan of Oman, five to six months before the arrival of Hassan Rouhani's government..." All of this confirms Iran's relationship with America and that America, in exchange, has assigned Iran a role in Iraq and Afghanistan... It was stated in a Q&A on 11/06/2014: ("On the other hand, it appears that America is giving a role to India in Afghanistan and is working to strengthen relations between these two countries so that it no longer needs Pakistan to enhance stability there. The first president Modi met at his inauguration ceremony was Karzai of Afghanistan. America trusts India when the government is loyal to it, as is the case now, more than it trusts Pakistan, although the government in Pakistan is loyal to it. But it fears that any change might occur in this Islamic country at any moment; it is not reliable for it in the long run, and its people are in a state of movement for change... Thus, India, under the pro-American Modi, will play an active role from a security perspective in Afghanistan for the benefit of the pro-American regime there"). Now, economic cooperation has been added to it to enhance security cooperation and protect American influence in Afghanistan.
Second: The Iran, India, and Afghanistan Project:
India and Iran first discussed the idea of an Indian gateway to Chabahar in 2003, when they agreed on the joint development of the port. In 2004, a coalition of Indian companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Iranian Ports and Shipping Organization to develop the facility. However, this did not materialize. But in May 2015, two months before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's nuclear program, the Indian Transport Minister, Nitin Gadkari, visited Iran to sign an MoU on Chabahar. Immediately after that, representatives from Iran, Afghanistan, and India met in New Delhi to finalize the draft of the Chabahar agreement. The agreement was signed between these three on 23/05/2016 to develop the port of Chabahar in the far east of Iran and transform it into a commercial corridor on the Indian Ocean with the aim of increasing trade exchange between the three countries. This comes after the lifting of sanctions on Iran following the signing of the nuclear program agreement. Indian Prime Minister Modi said in Tehran: "His country will allocate a credit line worth $500 million to develop the port of Chabahar... We want to connect with the world, but connection among our three countries is a priority... It is a corridor for peace and prosperity... It will affect the economic relationship." Iranian President Rouhani said: "The agreement is not only economic but political and regional, but it is not directed against any country and may contribute to the stability of the region and the establishment of peace." He signed 12 memoranda of understanding with Modi, according to which India must pay $6.5 billion to Tehran, which it could not recover due to international sanctions (AFP, 25/05/2016)." The French agency added its comment, saying: "It provides Afghanistan with a port on the sea because it is landlocked, and it includes the construction of railways and a road through Iran to Afghanistan. It is considered a strategic victory for India against China. India wants to compete with China, which is investing in the port of Gwadar, 100 km from Chabahar." This is evident in the explicit words uttered by the Iranian President, that these projects are not only economic but are political and relate to the regional situation in the area adjacent to China. Even if the Iranian President said they are not directed at anyone, their outward appearance and implication is that they are directed against someone! The Iranian President admitted they are not only economic, but political and regional. The Indian Prime Minister pointed to the priority of strengthening the connection between the three countries—meaning enhancing relations between them—for purposes related to these three countries.
It has been announced that these Indian-Iranian projects are also intended to access the Central Asian republics. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif called for "speeding up the implementation of the strategic project between the Islamic Republic of Iran and India to develop the port of Chabahar for its role in strengthening rail and road transport routes and transit trade between the Central Asian region and China" (Al-Alam Iranian page, 17/04/2016). Similarly, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the agreement "will significantly improve the use of Chabahar Port to contribute to the economic growth of Afghanistan and create better regional connectivity, including India and connections to Afghanistan and Central Asia." (The Diplomat, 18 April 2016). The statement of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at a press conference on 24 May 2016 is clear on this: "With our joint investments in Chabahar, we can connect India through a reliable route to Afghanistan and countries in Central Asia." (Quartz India, 24 May 2016). "The Indian government finally approved a project providing for investment in the port of Chabahar worth $100 million" (Al-Alam Iranian, 02/06/2016). It is worth noting that the port of Chabahar has a strategic location on the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean and is the easiest route for the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Third: The Chinese-Pakistani Project:
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan on 20/04/2015 (Reuters) and signed agreements with it to undertake projects worth $46 billion. These include a road network of about 3,000 kilometers from Gwadar in Pakistan to the Xinjiang region (East Turkestan) in western China, in addition to railways and the laying of pipelines. The projects will provide China with an entrance to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Reuters quoted Mushahid Hussain Sayed, chairman of the defense committee in the Pakistani parliament, as saying: "Pakistan is now of pivotal importance to China. This must succeed and we see it succeeding." Correspondents said: "This represents a major step forward in China's ambitions to enhance its economic influence in Central and South Asia, which exceeds what the United States spends in Pakistan." Ahsan Iqbal, the Pakistani minister in charge of the plan, told AFP at the time: "Those investments are massive and real projects that will have a significant impact on the Pakistani economy." The Chinese president told the Pakistani media: "China and Pakistan need to unite work on security concerns to enhance security cooperation." Fifty agreements were signed regarding Chinese investments in Pakistan, 30 of which relate to the economic corridor. Nawaz Sharif said: "Xi's visit to Pakistan represents a turning point in the history of relations between the two countries, and friendship with China is the cornerstone of Pakistan's foreign policy." Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain said: "Approximately 3 billion people will benefit from the project; Pakistan has granted China exclusive rights to operate the port of Gwadar over the next forty years." An army division of 13,000 new troops was established to protect the emerging economic corridor. China provides secret nuclear assistance and missiles to Pakistan, as well as nuclear-capable ballistic missiles with a range of 2,750 km. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif recently said that he "is personally overseeing the Chinese economic corridor, which has the potential to change the fate of millions of people in the region, and that the economic corridor will connect the entire region through a network of highways and railways..." (Official Pakistani News Agency, 12/07/2016).
This economic work draws China into focusing on its relationship with Pakistan, as the latter is enthusiastic about this and works to lure China with these economic projects, making it spend huge sums of money on them and keeping it preoccupied in this corner. By doing so, Pakistan provides a service to its master, America, which is working to encircle and besiege China to prevent it from competing with it and to keep it occupied as far away as possible from controlling the South China Sea. This matter is important for America; it is exerting every effort to obstruct China's attempts to control the South China Sea, where China is expanding islands and building airports and ports on them. Thus, its control over the archipelago of islands becomes natural when the islands become affiliated with it, bearing in mind that the archipelago of islands extends to about 250 islands. America wants to turn China's eyes away from engaging in that and direct it toward projects it lures it with so that it sees them as more beneficial to it than islands of no value! Therefore, Pakistan's projects with China heading toward the Pakistani port of Gwadar, in contrast to the projects of India, Iran, and Afghanistan heading toward the port of Chabahar—and the two ports are close to each other by a distance of about 60 miles—this matter will create a preoccupation for China in that region... It is well known that the port of Gwadar in Pakistan and the port of Chabahar in Iran have strategic geographical and geopolitical importance for the region, and each of them has importance for international maritime transport and the oil trade... An expert on South Asia, Adam V. Larkey, highlighted the political nature of the aforementioned project deal, saying: "There is no comparison in terms of the scale and purpose of China's role in Gwadar and India's role in Chabahar; but the Americans are pleased with India's pushback against Chinese expansionist thought." (The United States supports the Chabahar port deal between India and Iran because it encircles the Gwadar project between China and Pakistan. Firstpost.com, 26 May 2016). Thus, America wants to influence China through this project with Pakistan, because if the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is completed, it will be like the heart of China, meaning that China will not easily abandon this project, so it becomes preoccupied with it instead of other more important areas like the South China Sea...
America is also inciting the countries of the region against China, including the Philippines, which took the matter to the International Court, where the court ruled in favor of the Philippines regarding its rights to the disputed islands with China. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, issued a decision on 12/07/2016 in which it declared: "There is no legal basis for China to claim historical rights to the resources in the maritime area within the 'nine-dash line'" upon which China bases its claims. And that "China violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines in its exclusive economic zone by interfering with Philippine fishing and oil extraction activities and building artificial islands, and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in that area." China immediately hastened at the hour of the announcement through its official agency (Xinhua) to "confirm that China does not accept nor recognize the court's decision." Its foreign ministry announced thereafter "that this ruling is null and void and has no binding force," even saying: "The goal is malicious and is not to resolve the dispute with China nor to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea." Consequently, its president, Xi Jinping, announced that "his country will not accept any proposal or action based on the ruling of the international court." America then announced its support for the court's decision, and considered it, as stated by its official spokesperson in the State Department, John Kirby, that it is: "final and legally binding for China and the Philippines, and represents a significant contribution to the common goal of reaching a peaceful solution to the disputes in the South China Sea" and called on "all parties to abide by the decision and avoid making provocative statements or carrying out provocative actions" (DPA, AFP, 12/07/2016).
Fourth: It becomes clear from the above the answers to the issues raised in the question as follows:
a- The economic works that took place between the countries of the region—between India, Iran, and Afghanistan, and between Pakistan and China—are not purely economic but have political objectives, especially since all these countries except China follow American policy.
b- America has given a role to India to confront China. Just as it worked to enhance its nuclear capabilities, it is working to enhance its economy so that it can play this role, and it supports it with Iran and opens the field of investment for it there. It is also working to strengthen Iran's economy so that it does not collapse and continues to play the role assigned to it by America in the region. America has assigned India a role in Afghanistan to protect American influence there, just as Iran supports American influence in Afghanistan. Therefore, India and Iran moved to support the economy of American-occupied Afghanistan and open the way for it to reach a port on the sea.
c- America encourages Pakistan to strengthen relations with China so as to lure it with projects that keep it away from engaging in expanding its actions to control the South China Sea, while at the same time it incites the countries of this sea basin against China and creates problems and troubles for it, the latest of which was obtaining a politicized decision from the Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands.
d- America targets the Central Asian region by working to bring it to work with Pakistan and creating interests for it in reaching a port on the sea through the economic corridor built by China. By this, America can link the rulers of the region with interests with its agent Pakistan, and thus be able to communicate with them by virtue of their relations with Pakistan and the existence of interests for them there, so the process of buying them off takes place... This is from one perspective. From another perspective, one of the objectives of the trilateral project (Iran, India, Afghanistan) is also to reach Central Asia, as stated in the declarations of Iranian and Indian officials. Reaching Central Asia through these pro-American countries is undoubtedly a service to America's interests, and thus it consolidates its influence in the region, competing with Russian influence there.
Fifth: In conclusion, this region was for hundreds of years under the rule of Islam during the era of the Islamic Khilafah (Caliphate). The Silk Road and all commercial routes in the region and the ports were under the supervision of the Khilafah State. The merchants were mostly Muslims carrying goods from here and there, just as they carried the call to Islam until millions converted, and they multiplied and became hundreds of millions. It will return once again soon as it was and better, by Allah's permission. At that time, there will remain no agents who take orders from America, serving it in exchange for staying in power and preserving their worn-out, corrupt regimes and narrow national interests. Indeed, tomorrow is near for the one who awaits it.
وَاللَّهُ غَالِبٌ عَلَى أَمْرِهِ وَلَكِنَّ أَكْثَرَ النَّاسِ لَا يَعْلَمُونَ
"And Allah is predominant over His affair, but most of the people do not know." (TMQ Yusuf [12]: 21)
16th of Shawwal 1437 AH 21/07/2016 CE