Question:
What is happening in Ivory Coast? The second round of presidential elections was held on 28/11/2010. The Constitutional Council, which supports the current president Laurent Gbagbo, announced the president's victory with 51.45%, while the Electoral Commission announced the victory of his rival, Alassane Ouattara, with 54.1%. Consequently, America, the United Nations, and the International Security Council recognized the results announced by the Electoral Commission and the victory of Alassane Ouattara. President Gbagbo rejected this, considering himself the winner according to what the Constitutional Council announced, and insisted on remaining in power, supported by the army. Is this a matter of tribal or religious electoral competition? Or is it a political conflict, and if so, between whom? What is the expected solution to this electoral problem?
Answer:
To answer this, we review the following points:
1- It is historically known that France entered Ivory Coast in 1843 and declared it a French protectorate. However, the Muslims resisted and defeated them, declaring an Islamic emirate there that implemented Islamic Shariah. But the French managed to occupy it and impose their control with the help of tribes in neighboring countries, declaring it a French colony in 1893. They gave it symbolic independence in 1960, similar to most African countries that were given symbolic independence by de Gaulle's France due to the international circumstances of that period. It was headed by the French agent Felix Houphouet-Boigny from that year until his death in 1993. During his rule, he relied directly on France and its forces and divided the country, as dictated to him by France, into:
Muslims who worked on cocoa plantations, keeping them in a state of poverty, deprivation, and marginalization, subjected to persecution and injustice in the North, even though they constitute 65% of the population of their country, Ivory Coast—though Western sources reduce their percentage to about 40% or less due to a known policy.
And into well-to-do pagans along with those who converted to Christianity in the South, including the country's presidents and army leaders, with the intent of preventing the spread of Islam among the pagans and working to Christianize them.
2- Ivory Coast is rich in cocoa, as its production accounts for about 40% of the global output, which French companies exploit. This is in addition to the presence of other mineral riches such as copper, diamonds, cobalt, and uranium, most of which are exploited by the French. Even the financial institutions there are mostly controlled by the French. Its system is linked to France through its rulers, as well as its economy and security. There is still a French military force of 900 elements that supports the ruling clique in the country and protects the French investors, whose number is estimated between 15,000 to 20,000. It is located in the Gulf of Guinea on the Atlantic coast, giving it a strategic position, and it is surrounded by several African countries that were French colonies and remain under French influence. Ivory Coast is considered one of the strongholds of the Francophonie, where France imposed its language and culture. Therefore, it held cultural importance for French colonialism, in addition to the economic and strategic aspects.
3- America has been interested in removing Ivory Coast from French influence and placing it under its own influence. Therefore, the country began to witness events and disturbances because of this conflict. It saw a military coup at the end of 1999, and the coup leader Robert Guei promised elections that actually took place on 22/10/2000. During these, France managed to remain in control of the government by bringing its agent Laurent Gbagbo to power in the elections despite American counter-measures.
Despite this, American methods and various means of pressure did not subside to the point that France feared Gbagbo's fall in the next elections. Therefore, when his term ended in 2005, the elections were postponed six times until they were held this year due to increasing American pressure on him and his regime and the international isolation and sanctions imposed on him. The first round was at the end of last October, and the second round was at the end of last month, 28/11/2010.
4- The result was the Constitutional Council, which supports the current president Laurent Gbagbo, announcing the president's victory with 51.45%, while the Electoral Commission announced the victory of his rival, Alassane Ouattara, with 54.1%. America, the United Nations, and the International Security Council recognized the results announced by the Electoral Commission and the victory of Alassane Ouattara. President Gbagbo rejected this, considering himself the winner according to what the Constitutional Council announced, and insisted on remaining in power, supported by the army.
The recognition by America, the United Nations, and the Security Council of the Electoral Commission's announcement—meaning the fall of Gbagbo—and America’s ongoing actions of threats and inducements to make Gbagbo step down from power, means that Gbagbo's position is in opposition to American policy and that he still maintains his loyalty to France.
5- As for Alassane Ouattara, he held the position of Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Boigny brought him in as Prime Minister to appease America and ease its noticeable pressure. France was aware of Alassane Ouattara's leanings during his time at the IMF, but it did not fear him as long as its strong, seasoned agent Boigny was present; at the same time, this calmed American pressure. However, upon Boigny's death in 1993, France feared for its influence and the rising star of Alassane Ouattara, who began implementing IMF policies there. So, it brought in the Speaker of Parliament, Henri Konan Bedie, to head the country for a transitional period and to issue a law preventing Alassane Ouattara from entering the presidential elections, and then to install himself as the actual president of the country in 1995.
All of this indicates that Alassane Ouattara has maintained his loyalty to America since he was in the IMF apparatus. For this reason, America supported him, as it considered him the winner and the legitimate president of the country. It created international public opinion on this issue, and the United Nations supported him through its Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. America was also able to obtain a resolution in the International Security Council in this regard when it announced on 9/12/2010 its recognition of Alassane Ouattara as President of Ivory Coast and issued a warning to Laurent Gbagbo stating: "The members of the Security Council condemn in the strongest possible terms any attempt to subvert the popular will or undermine the integrity of the electoral process or free and fair elections." America also made the African Union issue a resolution supporting Alassane Ouattara's victory. America uses pressures and threats alongside inducements to make Gbagbo step down and hand over power to Alassane Ouattara. We have seen it move the African Union in this direction, which announced on 9/12/2010 "the suspension of Ivory Coast's membership until Laurent Gbagbo hands over power to Alassane Ouattara," as well as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which asked Gbagbo to step down and hand over power to Alassane Ouattara, whom the grouping considered the winner. Thus, America stirred international public opinion and all international and regional institutions against Gbagbo and his regime, inciting disturbances in the country, warning of a deeper rupture in the country, and threatening more sanctions and international isolation. Alongside this, it offers inducements; Reuters reported on 10/12/2010 from an American official that "Obama offered Gbagbo, in the event of his resignation, that Obama would be the first world leader to praise his decision to step down, and that he would invite him to the White House to discuss strengthening democracy in the region and give him a role he could play. In case of his refusal, America would support efforts to impose isolation on Gbagbo and hold him responsible if he refuses to step down."
6- America's pressures, political measures, threats, and warnings, followed by some inducements in what is known as the carrot and stick policy, were tightly executed such that they created international public opinion. This forced France and the European Union to support the election result of Ouattara's victory in exchange for a deal, which France is now leading and the European Union—especially Britain—is supporting. This deal suggests power-sharing similar to the Kenya model, where Gbagbo remains President of the Republic and Alassane Ouattara becomes Prime Minister. France is trying to use its army in Ivory Coast and the Ivorian army itself, in which France has strong influence, as a pressure card to accept the deal. The British have moved in favor of France through their agents in Africa in this direction, moving South Africa, which called in a statement issued by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs: "Pretoria calls on the rival leaders to exercise restraint and work for national reconciliation, and for unity to be the absolute priority during this period." (BBC 9/12/2010). South Africa did not announce its support for Alassane Ouattara, but rather claims it is concerned with the country's unity and finding a reconciliation that means maintaining Gbagbo's stay in power. The British also moved their agent Thabo Mbeki, the former president of South Africa, to create this reconciliation, which is a move in the name of the African Union in form. After Mbeki's meeting with Alassane Ouattara for half an hour, Ouattara addressed Mbeki saying: "I ask him (i.e., Mbeki) to ask Laurent Gbagbo not to cling to power" (AFP 6/12/2010), which indicates that Mbeki is not working to remove Gbagbo but rather to stabilize him. This is confirmed by Mbeki's own statement following this meeting when he said: "The situation is very serious, and the important thing is to avoid acts of violence and not to return to war and to find a peaceful solution." (Same source). That is, for Mbeki, the important thing is not Gbagbo's stepping down and bringing in Alassane Ouattara as America wants and insists, but rather to avoid violence and war that would undermine French influence, and to find a peaceful solution. This means finding a conciliatory formula between Gbagbo and Ouattara. It is clear that the British are working against American influence, not for the sake of France, but because the fall of French influence in Ivory Coast will affect their own influence in the countries where they extend their influence within the African continent. Since the period of old colonialism, they have often reached understandings with the French to maintain their influence and cooperate with each other for that purpose. When America appeared on the scene and launched a campaign against them to liquidate them from their colonies, they increased their cooperation to stand in its face. On the other hand, it is easy for the British to extend their influence in countries controlled by the French, as has happened in many countries, including North African countries, but it is not easy for them to compete with America, which has immense capabilities and great potential compared to the British, especially as they realize that America is working to permanently eliminate them from their colonies and places of influence.
7- Thus, the electoral problem in Ivory Coast is a problem of international conflict whose prominent parties are France and America. As for what is expected, the power-sharing deal works if each party cannot fully implement what it wants. However, if one of the parties can take everything it wants or perceives that it can, then the chances of the deal become weak. Following what is happening in Ivory Coast and the international public opinion that America managed to stir against Gbagbo makes America see an opportunity not to agree to the deal, hoping for Gbagbo's removal and Alassane Ouattara's assumption of power. This, at least, is what is expected in the foreseeable future, although the possibility of a deal is not excluded. America sees in what is happening a chance that appeared to it to take an African country through elections without a military coup. This situation gives America more credible excuses to adopt its agents publicly and defend them because they are considered legitimate, having come by the will of the people through elections. No one can blame it and accuse it of supporting dictatorial regimes if its agents were to come through military coups.
Thus, it is expected that America will not abandon its pressures and threats against Gbagbo, as well as its offers to him to step down. The American administration, with its president, Secretary of State, and other officials, has thrown all its weight into this issue, even if weapons and internal fighting are used. It clings to the card of Ouattara's success and supports him with all its might to seat him on the throne of power to be able to extend its influence there. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated: "We are in full agreement that Alassane Ouattara is the legitimately elected president of Ivory Coast and that he respects the election results." (BBC 3/12/2010). It appears that America will succeed this time. Accordingly, it is likely that America will reject the proposed power-sharing formula where the president is Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara is Prime Minister, especially since Gbagbo's regime is famous for persecuting its people, even if they are Muslims. America uses this persecution as a pretext for its campaign aimed at extending its influence in Ivory Coast and removing French influence from it and the whole region. America has warned its citizens against going there, and its State Department said in a statement that it: "predicts the occurrence of demonstrations and does not rule out that they will become violent" (AFP 5/12/2010), as if it is calling for that, or has prepared for that if Gbagbo does not step down, which indicates America's insistence that its influence completely replace French influence, in contrast to France's insistence on power-sharing.
8- Thus, the fate of this country, which is considered an Islamic country with a majority Muslim population, remains a place for international conflict and the struggle of colonialists plundering its riches. France is keen on maintaining an influential role in Ivory Coast, and America is keen on having Ivory Coast for itself alone. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast is an Islamic country, the majority of its people are Muslims, and it was ruled by Islam before. It is duty-bound that its people take charge of the fate of their country without the interference of the influence of the colonialist disbelievers (Kuffar). However, the Muslims, as is their situation in the world, have no shepherd since the Khilafah disappeared from the world. Ivory Coast, like other Muslim lands, awaits the establishment of the Khilafah State to liberate it from the influence of the colonialist disbelievers and make it a part and a province (Wilayah) of the provinces of the Khilafah State, and that is not difficult for Allah.