Answer to a Question
The Political Struggle in Sudan
Question:
Al Jazeera published on its website on 19/03/2023: ("The Transitional Sovereignty Council in Sudan stated on Saturday that 'the parties not signed to the Framework Agreement have expressed their desire to reach a political agreement that ends the crisis in the country,' following a meeting held by the Deputy Chairman of the Council, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti,' with these parties. It is noteworthy that the Sudanese Sovereignty Council and civilian components, most notably the Forces of Freedom and Change - Central Council, signed the 'Framework Agreement' on December 5, 2022, to launch a new transitional phase in the country. However, other forces refused to sign the agreement, including the Forces of Freedom and Change - Democratic Block...") Al-Araby Al-Jadeed had also published on its website on Thursday 16/03/2023: ("The parties signed to the Framework Agreement participated in the 'Justice and Transitional Justice' conference in Khartoum on Thursday, as part of the final phase of the political process...") So, has the final stage really approached? Knowing that news has spread about differences between the Army Commander and President of the Sovereignty Council, Al-Burhan, and his deputy in the Council, the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Dagalo. Are these differences real, arranged by America so that Hemeti can become independent with Darfur and separate it as happened in South Sudan, especially since Hemeti has weight in Darfur? Or are they fabricated differences to carry out roles? Furthermore, what is the significance of the mutual visits between Khartoum and the UAE at this particular time? Finally, do Al-Burhan's attempts to normalize with the Jewish entity have a relationship with these struggles? Apologies for the multiple questions... and may Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
It would have been better not to combine all these various questions at once. Regardless, it is fine, and to answer them, we review the following matters:
The official spokesperson for the Sudanese Armed Forces, Brigadier General Nabil Abdullah, read a filmed statement broadcast by the media on 11/03/2023, addressing the people saying: ("Your Armed Forces confirm their commitment to the ongoing political process, and the strict and complete implementation of what was agreed upon in the Framework Agreement, which leads to the unification of the military system and the establishment of a government led by civilians for the remainder of the transitional phase until elections are held at its end.") The opposition forces showed their welcome for this announcement after doubts they had that the army would not commit to the agreement and that it was working to evade it, overthrow it, or circumvent it, while placing conditions for its implementation...
The Armed Forces' statement also comes a day after reports circulated about trucks carrying armed groups belonging to the Rapid Support Forces arriving in Khartoum from the Darfur region. The army then deployed large military forces in several parts of the capital, which some circles considered preparations for an imminent battle between the army forces led by Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Dagalo, resulting from the escalation of differences between the commanders of the two forces. The army spokesperson, Nabil Abdullah, said ("The situation in the country is under control and what is being circulated on some social media about the entry of armed groups into Khartoum is incorrect... Al-Youm Al-Tali newspaper, 10/03/2023"). However, the office of the Armed Forces spokesperson said in a statement that it ("did not issue statements denying the entry of armed groups into the Khartoum state to any media outlet. The leadership of the Armed Forces and security agencies in the country are monitoring the security situation in the country with wisdom and patience out of concern for the security of the homeland and the citizen... Asharq Al-Awsat, 11/03/2023"). This confirmation and denial from the office of the army spokesperson indicates that it was intended to manipulate people's nerves, and that one of its goals is to intimidate the opposition and prepare the atmosphere for a meeting between Al-Burhan and Dagalo to reconcile, under the claim that there are differences and verbal spats between them!
Following this, it was announced that a meeting was held between Al-Burhan, Dagalo, and forces signed to the Framework Agreement in Sudan on the evening of 11/03/2023. A statement was issued by the Sudanese Sovereignty Council stating that Al-Burhan and Dagalo ("discussed the progress of the political process and the need to move forward with the agreed-upon arrangements, and they agreed to proceed with what was described as the agreed-upon arrangements regarding the political process.") At the conclusion of the consultations, which discussed the political and security conditions in the country, they decided to ("form a joint security committee from the regular forces, relevant state agencies, and armed struggle movements to follow up on the security situation in the country... Sudan Tribune, Al Jazeera, 11/03/2023"). This was to show as if there was a conflict between Al-Burhan and Dagalo and as if the army was on the verge of clashing with the Rapid Support Forces, and that conditions have now calmed down temporarily after these meetings.
Dagalo "Hemeti" had previously announced ("that his participation in the coup of October 25, 2021, was a mistake, adding that the October 25 coup became a gateway for the return of the defunct regime... Al Jazeera, 19/02/2023"). Knowing that he was a strong defender of what he did with the army leadership against the previous government, it is impossible that his opinion has changed and that he is declaring regret. Rather, all of this is to deceive the opposition into following him or approaching him. This is why he stated after his aforementioned announcement, saying: ("The agreement is one package that must be implemented in its entirety without fragmentation... Arabi Post, 21/02/2023"). Then Hemeti escalated his campaign and appeared as if he were opposing the army leadership, saying: ("We will not accept any person who wants to become a dictator to rule the country. By our own will and desire, we agreed to hand over power to a full-fledged civilian government... The main conflict in the country is concentrated between those dedicated to power and those who want to hand it over to civilians. There is no problem between the Rapid Support Forces and the army, and the dispute is with those who use the army as a scapegoat. The principle of forming a civilian government was done by agreement between the army, the Rapid Support Forces, and our brothers in the Sovereignty Council... Asharq Al-Awsat, 08/03/2023"). It appears he wants to play a role as being with the civilian component and very keen on implementing the Framework Agreement in its entirety. On the other hand, Al-Burhan was hinting that the Framework Agreement is not binding on the army because it does not include all political forces. Then Al-Burhan also conditioned the army's continued implementation of the Framework Agreement on the integration of the Rapid Support Forces and armed movements into the army, saying: ("If there is clear talk about merging the Rapid Support Forces and armed movements into the Armed Forces, we will proceed with the Framework Agreement; any talk other than this will not be acceptable... Asharq Al-Awsat, 08/03/2023"). All this is to show as if there is a dispute between Al-Burhan and Hemeti regarding the implementation of the Framework Agreement, even though both are participants in its approval!
We mentioned in a Q&A dated 11/12/2022 regarding the Framework Agreement signed on 05/12/2022: ("This agreement saves the military leadership headed by Al-Burhan, his deputy, and those with them from their predicament as people have come to reject their rule and they have no internal support. It secures immunity and protection for the military leadership from judicial prosecution for the crimes they committed, allowing them to escape punishment. They have failed to manage the country's affairs and failed to solve its problems, and all they have done is maintain American influence... knowing that the other party of the so-called Forces of Freedom and Change and the parties that formed the government also failed in managing the country's affairs, addressing its problems, and securing the minimum necessities of life for the people. All they did was maintain British influence in the country..."). We said: ("As for the questions whether this agreement will last and be applied? This is doubtful. And will it save the country? That is unlikely, because it is built on falsehood. Foreign intervention is apparent to everyone as foreigners were present at its signing in the Republican Palace; rather, the one who drafted the agreement is a foreigner, who is the UN envoy under the direct supervision of the Americans and the British—the two parties of the international conflict in Sudan—in the name of the Quartet and the Troika"). To obstruct the implementation of the agreement, the military leadership with its two sides, the army led by Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Dagalo, are fabricating or feigning conflict between them, so that eyes remain focused on the agreement or disagreement of the two parties at any moment, and that the solution is centered on that rather than between the military and civilian components...
As for Al-Burhan's visit to the UAE, an important hub for Britain, last February, and the visit of Sheikh Shakhboot, the UAE Minister of State, to Sudan after Al-Burhan's visit and his delivery of a secret message to Al-Burhan, these visits do not change anything. No significant change has been noticed from Al-Burhan in his positions, statements, and actions; rather, they are consistent with what America wants, step by step... It seems the motive for the visit is to "spy" on each other, so each party tries to know the reaction of the other party to the steps each of them takes... under the pretext of each party trying to calm the situation... It seems the civilian component has been deceived by this dispute between Al-Burhan and Hemeti and thought it was a real dispute. Thus, the military component succeeded in pushing the civilian component to try to intervene to resolve the dispute between them under the pretext of calming the situation. A leader in the Freedom and Change, Muhammad Ismat, told Asharq Al-Awsat, ("that there are continuous efforts from the forces of change and civilian transition to calm the situation between the Rapid Support Forces and the Armed Forces, to avoid any clash between them that would lead the country into the abyss of loss... Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, March 06, 2023"). This was followed on Wednesday evening, March 08, 2023, by a high-level delegation of leaders from the former ruling coalition in Sudan, the Forces of Freedom and Change, heading to the United Arab Emirates... to support reaching a final agreement to end the political crisis in the country. ("The delegation includes the head of the Contact and Foreign Relations Committee, the head of the Sudanese Congress Party, Omar al-Digair, the head of the executive office of the Unionist Gathering, Babiker Faisal, the Secretary-General of the National Umma Party, al-Wathiq al-Berir, and the representative of the Professionals Association in the forces of change, Taha Othman. The alliance said in a statement that the delegation will meet Emirati leaders to discuss completing the final arrangements for the political process based on the framework political agreement... Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, March 09, 2023"). All this indicates that the civilian component has been placed in a corner, and that the matter has become controlled by the political component alone! That is, America has moved the political struggle in Sudan to a new arena, which is a deceptive arena of conflict between its agents that overshadows other conflicts and forces the forces subordinate to the Europeans to move closer to Hemeti, especially since he declares his support for civilian rule!
Regarding the issue of normalization, Al-Burhan seeks to protect himself from falling and to strengthen his authority by making concessions to America in everything it wants, including normalization with the Jewish entity. This normalization only benefits the Jewish entity, America, and Al-Burhan personally and those with him. It does not benefit Sudan in anything; rather, it harms it, and it is forbidden (haram) by Shari'ah because it is a recognition of the usurper of Palestine—one of the dearest lands of the Muslims to them—which attacks its people night and day, demolishes their homes, kills their children, and confiscates their property. Nevertheless, [the Sudanese Sovereignty Council announced that its president, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, ("met Cohen in Khartoum and they discussed enhancing prospects for joint cooperation, especially in the security and military fields"), and the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the two parties ("agreed to move forward toward normalizing relations between the two sides... Sudan News Agency, 02/02/2023")] and the official radio of the Jewish entity mentioned on 08/02/2023 that a special delegation from the Sovereignty Council in Sudan visited the Jewish entity secretly today... Thus, the Sudanese regime no longer feels ashamed to commit treason by normalizing with the Jewish entity in order to stay in power to secure American support for it!
Conclusion:
There is no real dispute between Al-Burhan and Hemeti; rather, each of them is an agent for America, and America brought Al-Burhan to his current position through Hemeti. ("The relationship between Al-Burhan and Hemeti reached the current alliance, after the ousting of Defense Minister Awad Ibn Auf, who took power after the removal of Bashir, where Al-Burhan became president of the Sovereignty Council and commander of the army, even though he was not a first-rank commander in the Armed Forces; therefore, it is believed that this was with support from Hemeti and regional support, while Hamdan became the vice-president of the Sovereignty Council, and the two men allied against civilian forces... Arabi Post, 21/02/2023"). Thus, the dispute is fabricated and not real, but rather part of the division of roles.
As for why the dispute is not real to enable Hemeti to gain independence with Darfur and separate it by arrangement from America as happened in South Sudan, especially since Hemeti has military and financial weight in Darfur ("Hemeti's forces control most of the region's wealth, including gold mines from which he exports to the UAE a value of 16 billion dollars... Misr 360 website, 12/05/2022"), there are no indicators for that at the present time. Rather, America now focuses on the dominance of its agents over the rule of Sudan and not enabling British agents to have effective roles in government, but rather keeping them busy in reconciling between Al-Burhan and Hemeti instead of struggling against them! However, it is not excluded that America might fragment the lands of the Muslims if it can, for this is the nature of the colonialist kafir states.
Al-Burhan wants to expand participation in the agreement and hints at the intransigence of the forces signed to it, as part of stalling its implementation. He has sought to hold meetings with non-signatory parties as mentioned at the beginning of the question, which creates a conflict between the signatories and non-signatories, especially between the Freedom and Change "Central Council" (signatory) and the Freedom and Change "Democratic Block" (non-signatory), and this prolongs the time for final approval... Expressing Al-Burhan's position more clearly, Sovereignty Council member Shams al-Din Kabbashi stated early this month ("that the army will not proceed with the Framework Agreement without political consensus, and that the signatory forces are not enough to resolve the political crisis in the country, and that the army will not protect a constitution that is not agreed upon... Al Jazeera Mubasher, 20/02/2023"). The army is trying to evade the Framework Agreement or to circumvent it in one way or another, sometimes by expanding participation in it, and sometimes by conditioning the merger of the Rapid Support Forces and armed movements into the Armed Forces (the army), and these are controlled by Al-Burhan and Hemeti in their length or shortness according to America's desire!
America has succeeded in moving the political struggle in Sudan to a new arena, which is an arena of alleged conflict between its agents that overshadows other conflicts and forces the forces subordinate to the Europeans to postpone focusing on implementing the Framework Agreement and instead busy themselves with reconciling between Al-Burhan and Hemeti, thinking that the dispute between them is real! Consequently, the military component (Al-Burhan and Hemeti) controls the postponement of implementation under the pretext of their lack of agreement on the merger, until the conditions and atmosphere become suitable for amending the agreement and purifying it of any actual influence for the civilian component. This is the meaning of "soon" mentioned in Al-Burhan's statement ("that the country is walking the path of establishing civilian rule, suggesting the formation of the civilian government soon... Al-Ittihad, 19/03/2023"). Thus, the Framework Agreement will be implemented according to the requirements of the military component, and then it will be "soon" whether the date of implementation is near or far! If they cannot achieve that, it is not excluded that they will attempt to cancel the Framework Agreement by fabricating the difficulty of merging the Rapid Support Forces with the army due to the lack of consensus between Al-Burhan and Hemeti—meaning a repeat of the scenario of canceling the Constitutional Document with a new style of production... This document was signed between the military and civilian components on August 21, 2019, and it was scheduled for the military to head the Presidential Council initially... then the civilians were to start in November 2021 heading the Council. To prevent them from doing so, the Sudanese Defense Minister, Major General Yassin Ibrahim, announced on 21/09/2021, two months before the date the civilians were to take over, the thwarting of a coup attempt... Then calls grew to dissolve the government, and it was indeed dissolved and the Constitutional Document ended. We clarified this at the time in a Q&A on 25/10/2021... And it is not excluded now that the same scenario will be repeated but by fabricating a conflict with a prominent element of America's men, "Hemeti"!
In conclusion, we emphasize once again that Sudan will not see a glimmer of hope as long as there are agents working for this colonialist or that colonialist, who are struggling over a Muslim country and do not care about the country's revival, solving its problems, feeding its people, and securing their needs. The only way for the people is to get rid of the agents and not follow them or follow their misguided path. Rather, they must follow the path of those who turn to Allah, call to Him, and work to implement His rule and to unify the Muslims and revive them.
وَمَنْ أَحۡسَنُ قَوْلاً مِّمَّنْ دَعَا إِلَى اللهِ وَعَمِلَ صَالِحاً وَّقَالَ إِنَّنِي مِنَ الْمُسْلِمِينَ
"And who is better in speech than one who invites to Allah and does righteousness and says, 'Indeed, I am of the Muslims'?" (Surah Fussilat [41]: 33)
27th of Sha'ban 1444 AH 19/03/2023