Question:
(The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, said in a speech broadcast on official television on Sunday evening, 4/10/2020, that Armenia must set a timetable for withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh region before stopping the fighting that broke out there about a week ago... Aliyev considered that taking control of the city of Jabrayil yesterday, Sunday, is a lesson for Armenia and its supporters, and they must learn from it, as he put it. Al-Jazeera, 05/10/2020). Violent clashes had broken out between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the morning of 27/9/2020 with a ferocity not seen since the ceasefire between the two parties in 1994, although they were renewed from time to time in limited and sometimes wide-scale clashes, as happened in 2016. Turkey did not support Azerbaijan militarily in all these previous clashes. However, this time, with Turkey announcing its support for Azerbaijan, it seems that it has certain goals! What are these goals? Why did Turkey intervene with this momentum? And what is the position of the Minsk Group countries, especially its three leaders: (the United States, Russia, and France)? With thanks and appreciation.
Answer: To understand the reality of what is happening, we review the following matters:
1- Azerbaijan announced that Armenia launched a wide-scale attack on its territory on the morning of 27/9/2020. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense stated in a declaration that ("Armenian fire caused loss of life among civilians, in addition to causing great destruction to civilian infrastructure in a number of villages that were subjected to heavy Armenian shelling." It stated that its "forces launched a counter-offensive in which they were able to destroy a large number of Armenian military facilities and vehicles deep in the front line, including 12 Russian-made 'Osa' anti-aircraft missile systems..." Al-Jazeera 27/9/2020). The Azerbaijani Parliament approved the declaration of a state of war in some cities and regions and the imposition of martial law in the clash zones. On the other side, Armenia declared a state of war, even putting on its official account a picture of a monk carrying an automatic rifle with the sign of shirk (polytheism), the cross, hanging from his neck, in a sign that they are waging a crusade against Muslims... Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced his country's position in a speech: ("Azerbaijan has declared war on its people" and that "he does not rule out that the escalation in the region will exceed the borders of the region and threaten international security. Turkey's behavior is fraught with devastating consequences for the South Caucasus and urged the international community to ensure that Turkey does not interfere in the ongoing conflict between Baku and Yerevan over the Karabakh region since 1991"... Previous source).
2- Azerbaijan has shown that the battles this time are serious and the war is decisive. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on 30/9/2020 ("Negotiations regarding Karabakh were not useful and there is no need for new calls for dialogue, expressing Azerbaijan's determination to restore its territorial integrity and that the Azerbaijani army was able to achieve field successes during its recent operations in the disputed region and that no one can force the Azerbaijani forces to withdraw from the positions they have controlled. The withdrawal of Armenian forces is the only condition set by Azerbaijan, and if Yerevan implements it, the fighting will stop." He said: "We have one condition: a complete, unconditional withdrawal without delay of the Armenian armed forces from our land. If the Armenian government accepts... then the battles will stop and the bloodshed will stop... Al-Jazeera, Russia Today, 30/9/2020). It appears that he is confident in Turkish support, thinking that this support is sincere and that it will liberate the land for him...
3- Clashes had been renewed this year on 12/7/2020 and lasted for 3 days, stopping with the loss of life on both sides. Then, for the first time, Turkey sent ground and air forces to Azerbaijan to participate in large-scale military maneuvers between the two countries that began on 29/7/2020 and lasted for about two weeks. Turkey began to show that it was adopting the cause of Azerbaijan and its territories occupied by the Armenians. This has not happened before, even though intermittent clashes occurred between the two parties from time to time since the announcement of the ceasefire in 1994. The last clashes considered severe since that date occurred from the beginning of April until 26 April 2016, but Turkey did not intervene on the side of Azerbaijan except for its president, Erdogan, offering his condolences to those who lost their lives in the clashes and his readiness to support Azerbaijan without providing anything! Circumstances necessitated Turkey's understanding with Russia and not a clash, as America planned so that the two countries would stand together to stabilize the Syrian regime loyal to America, strike the people of Syria rebelling against this regime, and prevent the return of Islam to power. Especially since the Armenian rebellion against Azerbaijan began in February 1988 with support from Russia, and they announced their control over the mountainous Karabakh region in 1991, and declared an independent republic for themselves, and the war continued until 1994. Azerbaijan lost more than 20% up to 24% of its territory, which includes the Karabakh region consisting of 5 provinces, besides 5 other provinces in the west of the country, in addition to large parts of the Aghdam and Fuzuli provinces. They displaced about a million of the Muslim residents of these areas. The Russian army intervened directly, and Russia still stands behind Armenia, a country small in area, population, power, and capabilities compared to Azerbaijan.
4- Turkey is playing with the Azerbaijan issue according to its rotation in the orbit of America and the execution of its orders. Turkey signed a comprehensive peace agreement with Armenia in Zurich, Switzerland, on 10/10/2009, which provided for recognizing the current borders between the two countries, opening these borders, establishing diplomatic relations, exchanging ambassadors, opening consulates, developing relations in all fields, regional and international cooperation, and resolving regional and international disputes by peaceful means according to international rules and laws, fighting terrorism, developing democracy in the region, and finding and developing dialogue for the scientific scrutiny of historical documents and sources, in a reference to resolving the problem of the claim of the Armenian genocide... Noting that Erdogan had previously refused to reach an understanding with Armenia before it withdrew its forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in Karabakh and its surroundings. The conclusion of this agreement came at the direct request of former US President Obama, as he called during his visit to Turkey on 6/4/2009 to resolve the dispute between Turkey and Armenia and find peace between them after relations between the two parties were severed and the borders closed in 1993. Erdogan complied and signed a comprehensive peace agreement with Armenia without mentioning Azerbaijan or the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands or the issue of the displaced persons who number about a million of the Muslim people of Azerbaijan... The US State Department announced that the signing was a historic event and that it participated in it!
5- Azerbaijan at that time criticized the signing of the agreement before the withdrawal of Armenians from the occupied Azerbaijani lands was achieved, and Azerbaijan demanded Turkey to adhere to its previous promises not to open borders and establish relations with Armenia before the latter's withdrawal from its occupied lands. The website Elaph published on 10/10/2009: [Zurich: The foreign ministers of Turkey and Armenia signed bilateral agreements in Zurich (Switzerland) on Saturday evening aimed at normalizing relations between the two parties. Ministers Edward Nalbandian and Ahmet Davutoglu shook hands at length after the signing... Phil Gordon, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, said, "This evening (Saturday) we participated in a historic event"... Gordon is accompanying US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who arrived in London on Saturday evening as part of a five-day tour of six European cities. Before arriving in London, Clinton participated in Zurich, Switzerland, in the signing ceremony of the Turkish-Armenian agreements... For his part, a senior US official said that Obama is "excited" about the agreement and considers it "a major step forward"... For its part, Azerbaijan denounced on Sunday the normalization agreement between Armenia and Turkey and warned at the same time that opening the Armenian-Turkish border could cause instability in the South Caucasus... The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement, "The normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia before the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani region directly contradicts the interests of Azerbaijan and casts a shadow over the brotherly relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey built on historical roots"... Elaph, Saturday, October 10, 2009] End.
6- However, Erdogan's Turkey tried to deceive Azerbaijan with sweet words without actions; it did not put any condition in the agreement for Armenia's withdrawal from Karabakh, but rather agreed to it as it is! But after nine years, in March 2018, under pressure from Russia, Armenia officially canceled the agreement due to its submission to Russian influence. Thus, the opportunity was lost for America to take Armenia from Russia through this agreement with Turkey. Rather, Russia strengthened its influence in Armenia, reinforced its missile arsenal in its base, the Gyumri Armenian base, and then signed a joint air defense agreement in December 2015 with Armenia, deploying a squadron of MiG-29 aircraft, thousands of soldiers, armored vehicles, and long-range S-300 air and missile defense systems alongside medium-range SA-6 air defenses. Russia brought it into its "Eurasian Economic Union" market, which came into effect on 1/1/2015, alongside Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. These countries, including Armenia, became a market for the distribution of Russian products under the name of freedom of movement of goods and services in all fields, and the GDP of this market is considered to be more than 5 trillion US dollars, most of which is in favor of Russia.
7- after all that, America returned to look for other ways to strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan and weaken Russian influence there and then enter Armenia. It instructed Turkey to strengthen its military relations alongside economic and political relations with Azerbaijan to strengthen American influence and to pressure Armenia until it opens the doors to American influence, until the recent clashes occurred last July as if it were a deliberate act to be taken as an excuse for Turkey to intervene militarily and send forces for training and joint maneuvers, followed by the recent violent clashes and the declaration of a state of war by both parties. Turkish President Erdogan wrote immediately following these clashes on 27/9/2020 on his Twitter account ("The international community is dealing with double standards and has not been able to show an adequate and required reaction to the provocative Armenian attacks. The trio in the Minsk Group is very far, unfortunately, from acting towards a solution, as it continues its position that has neglected the issue for nearly 30 years," and said: "Establishing peace in the region will be through the departure of Armenian forces from the Azerbaijani lands occupied in 1992. Turkey will continue to stand by the friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan... Turkish News Agency, 28/9/2020) but he thought people forget! He ignored that he had neglected all of that and turned a blind eye to it when he signed that agreement, the peace agreement with Armenia in 2009 to serve America without demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Azerbaijani lands, and it was not addressed even by a single word!
8- When Armenia canceled this agreement nine years after its signing, and thus America could not enter Armenia, Erdogan returned once again to demand the withdrawal of Armenian forces from these occupied territories. He criticized his dear friend Putin, as he describes him, and also criticized Macron, saying ("I spoke about this matter with Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron but without result"... Turkish News Agency 1/10/2020), and he did not criticize his friend and ally Trump, as he also describes him, and how could he criticize him when he is the driver behind the curtain, and even in front of it?! Even if America plays with diplomatic methods, its matter is exposed to everyone with sight and insight... Among these is US President Trump's announcement in a press conference on the evening of 27/9/2020 that ("America will seek to stop the acts of violence that broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan." But he said: "We have a great deal of serious relations in this field, we will see if we can stop it"... Al-Jazeera 27/9/2020), meaning he will stop it when he sees a necessity in stopping it, and he did not say he would exercise pressure and put all of America's weight to pressure both parties to find a solution, but rather softened that by saying "if we can stop it," and it is the country that if it wants to implement something, it puts all its weight and exercises its pressure! It was stated in a US State Department declaration that it ("condemns in the strongest terms this escalation and that Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun urged the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to stop hostilities and to cooperate with the co-chairs of the Minsk Group with the aim of returning to substantive negotiations as soon as possible and emphasized Washington's commitment to helping both sides achieve a peaceful and sustainable settlement of the conflict"... Al-Jazeera Qatar and Al-Alam Iran, 27/9/2020). It equated the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides in the demand to stop hostilities, because the American position targets both countries to strengthen influence in them and weaken or remove Russian influence from them. All this indicates that America is implicitly satisfied with Turkey's movements and that it moved towards Azerbaijan at American instructions, otherwise what is the reason for the contact by the Turkish presidency spokesman Ibrahim Kalin on 29/9/2020 with the US National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien, as reported by Anatolia, about the subject of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia if it were not America that moves things?
9- Furthermore, Erdogan and his officials' emphasis on negotiating to implement the unjust Security Council resolutions and the resolutions of the Minsk Group that emerged from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 1992, whose leaders are America, Russia, and France... even though these resolutions are for the account of the Armenians and to secure a ceasefire in their favor. All this confirms that there is a deliberate action to heat up the atmosphere so that political and diplomatic actions can take their course to exercise pressure as America wants. Wars are often a means to move political and diplomatic actions and are linked to American instructions. Calls have begun from all parties for the necessity of negotiating and finding a political solution to the issue and implementing Security Council resolutions. Statements have followed from officials in Turkey supporting Azerbaijan on the basis of resolving the issue based on Security Council resolutions. Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said during his visit to the Azerbaijani embassy in Ankara ("The UN, Council of Europe, and OSCE resolutions on the integrity of Azerbaijani territory are clear, and if Armenia does not withdraw, the issue will not be resolved"... Al-Jazeera 29/9/2020). Knowing that these resolutions did not address the Nagorno-Karabakh highlands at all, but rather other lands, which indicates collusion over the Azerbaijan issue.
10- Russia stands behind Armenia, a country small in area, population, power, and capabilities compared to Azerbaijan. Russia is the one that finances and supports Armenia with weapons, equipment, and everything necessary for survival. It is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization led by Russia and has a large military presence there, so it is difficult for it to abandon it, otherwise its back from this side becomes exposed and paves the way for reaching the North Caucasus, which is part of the Russian Federation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during a phone conversation with his Armenian counterpart Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, expressed "concern over hostilities in Karabakh, emphasizing the necessity of a ceasefire" (Sputnik, 27/9/2020), which indicates Russian support for Armenia against Azerbaijan. When Turkey condemns Armenia, it must condemn Russia, the main supporter that imposes its influence there and protects Armenia, as Armenia does not dare to commit aggression except with Russian support. The one who supports the enemy is also an enemy. But Erdogan's Turkey maintains the best relations with the Russian enemy and allies with it in Syria against its Muslim people rebelling against the criminal regime headed by Bashar Assad. It is at the same time an American tool for manipulating Russia and using it for the account of American interests. But Russia is not easy to compromise in its vital region as happened in Ukraine and Georgia. Therefore, the conflict will not be resolved in this battle, and political and diplomatic actions will take their course as they are more effective in deceiving Russia.
11- As for France's presence there, it is different; it has no influence there, and it is trying to highlight itself as a major power, and it wants to maintain its membership in the Minsk Group formed in 1992 according to a decision from the OSCE to look into solving the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict issue and securing a permanent ceasefire. It stands in the face of Turkey, which obstructs European influence, including the French, because Turkey rotates in the orbit of America. Macron stated in a press conference in Latvia on 30/9/2020 (I learned about the "pro-Azerbaijan" Turkish announcements which I think are reckless and dangerous. France remains very concerned by the bellicose messages sent by Turkey in the past hours, which remove any obstacles for Azerbaijan to invade Nagorno-Karabakh again, and we will not accept this" (Reuters, 30/9/2020). Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu replied to him on 30/9/2020 saying, "France's solidarity with Armenia amounts to supporting the Armenian occupation in Azerbaijan" (Anatolia, 30/9/2020). France is trying to appear as an (honest) mediator in a contradictory position, and it is a country that does not master political maneuvers, so its position is always exposed and if it tries to hide it, contradiction appears in it. In a statement issued following the clashes, French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Von der Muhll said: "France is deeply concerned about the large-scale clashes in Karabakh and reports of casualties, especially among civilians, and calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of dialogue." She said: "France, as a co-chair of Minsk, emphasizes with its Russian and American partners its commitment to reaching a negotiated solution to the conflict within the framework of international law" (Sputnik, 27/9/2020). At the same time, it is always driven by apparent hatred for Islam and Muslims, whether internally, where it claims to launch freedoms and then restricts them for Muslims in a blatant contradictory position, or externally, where it adopts the causes of Armenians and other Christians to exploit them in finding influence for itself. They are easy to deceive; it deceived them during World War I and incited them against the Ottoman State, which had taken good care of them for centuries. France promised them a homeland in Anatolia, so they betrayed the Ottoman State and killed many Muslims at the instigation of France. Their interest, if they had reason, was to remain Dhimmi people, secure under the shadow of the Islamic state that treats them justly and does not exploit them as France and other colonial countries do.
12- Regarding the Security Council resolutions that countries are demanding to implement, including Turkey itself, they did not address the Karabakh region which the Armenians controlled and declared a republic in. The first resolution issued on 30 April 1993 under number 822 demanded an immediate cessation of clashes and hostilities and demanded a permanent ceasefire. It demanded the Armenian occupation forces to withdraw from the Zangilan region, the city of Horadiz, Kelbajar, and other Azerbaijani areas, and did not address the occupied Karabakh region. There are other resolutions issued in the same year confirming this resolution. Resolution 853 was issued on 29 July 1993, confirming the previous resolution and condemning the seizure of the Aghdam province and other areas of Azerbaijan, demanding full withdrawal from these areas by the Armenians and demanding the government of Armenia to pressure the Karabakh region to comply with Resolution 822. In the same year, on 14 October, Resolution 874 was issued and repeated its support for the peace process between the two sides and called for acceptance of the adjusted timetable for urgent steps. Azerbaijan rejected it because it linked the withdrawal of Armenian forces in Karabakh from the occupied Azerbaijani lands to the lifting of the embargo imposed on Armenia. The Azerbaijani government complained about being treated like the defeated side. The adjusted timetable included proposals related to withdrawing forces from recently occupied territories, removing all obstacles to communication and transport, and all other issues not addressed according to the Council, which must be settled through peaceful negotiations. On 12 November of the same year, 1993, Resolution 884 was issued and confirmed the previous resolutions and condemned violations of the ceasefire between the two parties, especially in Zangilan and the city of Horadiz. It called on the Armenian occupation forces to withdraw from the Zangilan region and the city of Horadiz and the withdrawal of occupation forces from the territories they occupied from Azerbaijan... None of the Security Council resolutions referred to withdrawal from Karabakh. The resolutions were formulated in a studied way that focuses on Azerbaijani lands outside the Karabakh region and considers this region implicitly not Azerbaijani lands. The meaning of this is that if negotiations and then an agreement take place, this region, the Karabakh region, will remain in a certain way under the control of the Armenians in exchange for them withdrawing from Azerbaijani lands. Turkey demands the implementation of these resolutions which do not demand the withdrawal of Armenians from the Karabakh region, just as it demanded the implementation of Security Council resolutions in Syria which do not touch the regime but confirm its survival and the preservation of its secular identity, and just as it demanded the implementation of the two-state solution in Palestine which recognizes the seizure by the Jews of about 80% of Palestine... Thus, the Karabakh issue remained stagnant, and the ceasefire was tantamount to a victory for the Armenians. The Minsk Group did not announce how the solution would be or what is being negotiated except for its extraction of those Security Council resolutions, but it is understood from the context and from the conditions and circumstances that they want to extract a recognition from Azerbaijan for the Armenian occupation of the five Karabakh region provinces where they were completely emptied of their Muslim people and replaced by disbelievers from the Armenian Christians, so that Armenia withdraws from the five other provinces and the occupied areas of the Aghdam and Fuzuli provinces, and thus the issue is settled. Just as happened in Palestine; where the Jews and America behind them extracted a recognition from the Palestine Liberation Organization and the existing regimes in the Arab and Islamic countries for the seizure by the Jews of about 80% of Palestine, and negotiations began to take place over about 20% of the lands occupied by the Jews since 1967, rather those that were handed over to them by the traitorous rulers when they accepted the ceasefire and the acceptance of Resolutions 242 and 243 issued by the Security Council, which provide for the withdrawal of the Jewish entity only from lands it occupied, or rather were handed over to it, on 5 June of that year.
13- This Turkish interest does not bode well. Whenever Erdogan's Turkey intervenes in an issue, it is at the expense of its people and for the benefit of America, as happened in Syria, where Turkey exercised its pressure on the armed factions until they accepted the de-escalation and ceasefire agreement, which was not adhered to by the Syrian regime nor those who support it directly from the Iranian regime and its followers and Russia, until these factions were brought out of it and it was handed over to the regime. Likewise what happened in Libya, where it provided support to the Al-Sarraj government so that when the Al-Sarraj forces advanced towards Sirte and Al-Jufra, Turkey stepped in and stopped the support and demanded Al-Sarraj to have a permanent ceasefire and negotiate with the other party, Haftar's side, whom Turkey considers illegitimate! It is not excluded that the Turkish support is to exercise pressure on Azerbaijan to soften its position. This is indicated by the statements of Turkish officials, as the deadlock in the negotiations led by the Minsk Group, especially America, has not been broken until Azerbaijan provides concessions in the matter of Karabakh, while it repeats its pledge to restore Karabakh by force from the occupiers. America, Russia, and France consider it as if it were an Armenian region according to the tone of their speech and their media always supporting the Armenians and the Security Council resolutions issued by these three countries and approved by other countries in the Council. A special republic has been formed in the region as if it were independent from Armenia, so that negotiations become difficult and this region does not concede its independent entity! And so that Armenia is not directly responsible and evades pressure if it is exercised upon it. The position of Erdogan's Turkey cannot be relied upon in this issue or in others, as it has not provided support since the war that broke out between the two parties thirty years ago and Azerbaijan remained alone, and it did not support it. Therefore, it is feared that the recent support is equivalent to imposing hegemony over the Azerbaijani decision and then conceding!
14- Azerbaijan is an Islamic country and the majority of its people are Muslims, but its regime is secular, and it is an extension of the previous communist regime in distancing religion from the state and society. This country was opened along with Armenia during the era of the third Rightly Guided Khilafah, Uthman ibn Affan, may Allah be pleased with him. Turkey cannot be relied upon, nor Iran, to save the lands of Islam and liberate them from the grip of America or Russia; rather, they both cooperate with them. There is no salvation for Muslims except by establishing the second Rightly Guided Khilafah on the method of Prophethood which the Messenger of Allah ﷺ gave glad tidings of:
إِنَّكُمْ فِي النُّبُوَّةِ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً عَاضّاً، فَيَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ يَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ جَبْرِيَّةً، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ
"You are in Prophethood as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood, and it will be as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be an hereditary (biting) kingship, and it will be as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be a tyrannical rule, and it will be as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood." (The Messenger of Allah ﷺ spoke the truth).
Eighteenth of Safar 1442 AH 5/10/2020 CE