Answer to a Question
The Final Formula Regarding Syria
Question:
The rapid entry of the regime into Daraa—an area that resisted it for years—followed by Quneitra, and before that Ghouta, Aleppo, and its sisters, while eyes are now turned toward Idlib, indicates matters that deserve study and understanding. We have seen the role of America and its manipulation, the role of the supporting parties and their manipulation, and the implicit approval of the guarantor states of de-escalation, such as Turkey, or their actual participation, such as Russia. What exactly happened and is happening? How were these countries able to play with the Syrian revolution in this manner? What roles did they play? And what comes next?
Answer:
After its launch in 2011 and its threat to depose Bashar, the agent of America, the deep spread of the Islamic sentiment within it, and its threat to change the face of the region toward Islam, the Syrian revolution was a pivotal event from two extremely important angles. From one angle, it brought forth solid local forces that do not owe allegiance to America or Europe; thus, for the first time on this scale, it was a unique force that sprouted within the Ummah without the disbelievers having authority over it. From a second angle, America, the dominant power in Syria and the world, was unable to cure it, which was akin to a miracle! There is no international conflict in Syria; rather, the conflict is between America, its followers, and its agents on one side, and the people of Syria on the other. Europe does not have influence in Syria as it does in Yemen and Libya, for example; rather, America is the one controlling the regime, the followers, and the agents. Thus, the conflict is between America and its appendages and the sincere people of Syria. Despite this, the Syrian revolution continued to haunt America, to the extent that former President Obama mentioned it turned his hair gray: "I am confident that a large part of the gray hair on my head is because of the meetings I held regarding Syria" (Rai al-Youm, 2016/8/5).
America took two different paths to achieve its ultimate goal in the region: crushing the Syrian revolution and ensuring the continuation of the agent rule:
a- The first path was providing all means of financial and military support to the regime in Damascus so it would not collapse. This included pushing Iran and its militias into Syria to fight alongside Bashar, then pushing Russia onto the same path. Russian President Putin announced the Russian intervention in Syria at the end of September 2015, immediately after his meeting with former US President Obama in New York. America prevented all international bodies and institutions from any meaningful condemnation of the Bashar regime, despite the severity of the crimes that reached the level of using chemical weapons. Although America threatened the regime if it used chemical weapons, it did not carry out its threat for fear of the regime's collapse. This is what happened; when the regime used chemical weapons in Ghouta on 2013/8/21, America sent its warships to strike the regime, but then retreated so these strikes would not affect the regime's morale! It did not want it to fall before an alternative agent was ripe, especially since it did not see in the "Syrian National Coalition" it founded the ability to fill the vacuum, particularly as it was exposed by its relations with America and its agents. Therefore, America retreated, and its retreat was clear evidence to anyone with eyes that America was preserving the regime, even though the chemical strike by the regime was horribly brutal. Nevertheless, the revolution in Syria remained steadfast and even made progress on the ground.
b- The second path, which is the most dangerous, was containment. America announced it was with the Syrian revolution, deceiving those factions because it did not fight them openly—and if they had understood, they would have known it was delegating others! We previously mentioned this in a leaflet issued on 2015/10/11, which stated: "...And here was the calamity, for America shows itself to be with the revolutionaries and found it difficult to fight them openly while they had caused damage to the regime, and the American alternative had not yet ripened. So, there was that dirty game of fire where Russia would perform the task; its role is to support the regime openly and stand against the revolutionaries openly, and the war against them is then justified. The regime was ready to summon Russia by America's order, and that is what happened... Russia agreed to play this evil, dirty role in Syria to serve America!..." Thus, America was declaring that it supported the opposition with money and weapons, but it was all talk and no action! This is because America prevented any effective weapons from reaching the revolution through Turkey or Jordan. It would send some aid, like bulletproof vests, only to entrench the idea that it was with the revolution. It announced support and training that benefited only a few individuals, sometimes not exceeding five, with the goal of pushing the factions toward it. America expected that this claim would be exposed sooner or later, so it sought the help of its followers in the region, especially Turkey and Saudi Arabia, during King Salman's reign in early 2015. These two countries were tasked with containing the revolution, gaining the loyalty of faction leaders, and diluting the Islamic character of the revolution. To this end, these two countries used their intelligence tools, dirty financial support, scholars of evil (mashayikh al-su’), providing shelter, safe havens, media platforms, and poisoned money.
Because the revolution in Syria was solid at that time in its goals and its Islam, it was necessary to use those tools of American influence extensively. Some sources mentioned that some factions in Syria received nearly a billion dollars! Through the intensity of financial support, the provision of media platforms, and the safe havens, America's followers (Saudi Arabia and Turkey) gained influence over the opposition and military factions tied to the intelligence of those countries. These two countries, especially through financial and media power, were able to bring forward and elevate leaders, thereby controlling those factions through them! America, using its agents and tools in the region, wanted to divert the Syrian revolution and scatter its goals. It announced that its mission in Syria and its international coalition was to fight "terrorism," meaning fighting the factions of the Syrian revolution. Despite its involvement in the Syrian war since 2014, its bombardment was limited to striking factions it called "terrorist," while not striking Bashar's forces and coordinating with Russia. However, many leaders of armed factions trusted it and began coordinating their operations with its intelligence rooms, MOM and MOC. They even engaged in its path called "combating terrorism." Consequently, internal fighting and involvement in forbidden blood confused the Syrian revolution, which found itself fighting on two fronts: the American front against "terrorism," added to the original front of "toppling the regime." The factions were subjected to Turkish and Saudi pressure, in addition to international pressure, to further engage in the American front and distance them from the original front! The Turkish intervention "Euphrates Shield" was the culmination of this trend, as Turkey asked the factions loyal to it to withdraw from the battles of Aleppo and head north to fight the ISIS organization. This continued until Bashar's forces and their allies, Russia and Iran, were able to occupy the city of Aleppo at the end of 2016 in a process akin to Turkey handing Aleppo over to the Russians and then to the regime! The armed factions' response to Turkey, their withdrawal from the battles of Aleppo, and their involvement in the American front against "terrorism" was an extremely dangerous indicator. It clearly showed that the faction leaders, who had sucked in millions of dollars, had gained a strong influence over their factions, and that America, after a long wait, could open a page of hope to crush the Syrian revolution. American policy began directing the Syrian arena toward liquidating the revolution—a goal America saw as possible after it and its followers succeeded in gaining the loyalty of many military faction leaders. Then Erdogan repeated the "Euphrates Shield" theme; he fabricated "Olive Branch" to facilitate the regime's entry into Idlib. While the Syrian regime was advancing toward Idlib and surrounding Abu al-Duhur airport, Erdogan moved the fighting toward Afrin! About 25,000 members of the opposition participated in it, as confirmed by the military leader in "Faylaq al-Sham," Yasser Abdel Rahim: "About 25,000 gunmen from the 'Free Syrian Army' are participating in the Turkish military operation in Afrin... Russia Today: 2018/01/23). This was with America's knowledge and approval. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stated that he "discussed the Syrian crisis and the issue of border security units with US Defense Secretary James Mattis on Monday evening (2018/1/15) in Canada..." (Anadolu Agency 2018/1/17). This is confirmed by repeated American statements understood to mean that "Olive Branch," the Afrin issue, and the movements of the Turkish army and the Free Army were all with the full approval of America and Russia in coordination with America. Among these statements: "The US Central Command said that Turkey informed them of the military operation in the Syrian city of 'Afrin'..." (Quds Press: 2018/01/21).
The broad outlines of American policy in Syria after the handover of Aleppo became as follows:
a- Cooling the Syrian arena: The most prominent title for this goal was the Astana path, to which Turkey dragged its affiliated armed factions to negotiate a ceasefire with Bashar, Iran, and Russia. This trend culminated in the so-called "de-escalation" agreements, which moved from one region to another, reaching the south, whose factions had not previously participated in the Astana negotiations but eventually did! During two years of these negotiations, Turkey emerged as a guarantor state of the agreement alongside Russia and Iran. The steadfastness of the revolution in its early years had prevented any ceasefire, making it a distant goal for the Obama administration, but it began to be realized toward the end of that administration in 2016 and then with the arrival of the Trump administration. Cooling the Syrian arena meant, in American terms, making room for negotiations without a direct threat to depose the Bashar regime militarily, but rather through negotiations that confirm the legitimacy of the regime. Therefore, no resolution included a reference to removing Bashar. America used the United Nations and the Security Council it controls and sent its followers as envoys—blacks, greens, and whites—from Kofi Annan to Lakhdar Brahimi to Staffan de Mistura. It held the Geneva conferences to bring the opposition together with the regime, starting from the Geneva 1 conference held on 2012/6/30, all of which were meant to recognize the regime and preserve it. Similarly, the Vienna 1 and 2 conferences were held in 2015. One of the most important points of the Vienna 2 conference was maintaining the secular identity of the Syrian state and its institutions. It issued international resolutions, the latest being the resolution submitted by America itself on 2015/12/18, which the Council accepted unanimously—a resolution that summarizes all previous resolutions and the results of the Geneva and Vienna conferences related to Syria, condensing them into a single resolution numbered 2254. This resolution became the reference for the political solution in Syria, and all countries began calling for its implementation. Even the armed factions, under the influence of the supporting states, called for it. This resolution does not call for the removal of Bashar! This confirms America's protection of him and his regime. This was the situation until the handover of Aleppo, after which it became possible to obligate the armed factions not to open fronts, then pressuring them to achieve this and fully adhere to the ceasefire, leaving the regime along with Russia and Iran (the other two guarantors of de-escalation) to isolate the revolutionaries' areas one by one! As for the third guarantor, Turkey, it did not lift a finger against those violations! The regime began striking the Wadi Barada area before the ink on the first de-escalation agreement in early 2017 had even dried, right before the eyes and ears of this guarantor! It even reached the point of collusion when the regime ignited the battles of Eastern Ghouta, as its intelligence itself participated in "counter-terrorism" operations in Ghouta. (Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said during a press conference today, Wednesday, to the official TRT news channel, that Turkey does not want the presence of a radical organization in Eastern Ghouta.) Reuters 2018/3/15. He says this while the regime, Russia, Iran, and their followers are brutally shelling Ghouta, as if Erdogan's Turkey is justifying it for them!
b- Engagement in American policy under the name of "combating terrorism": After US President Trump announced his determination to get rid of ISIS, and as an extension of the Battle of Mosul, America pursued this policy on four fronts:
The first front: The US military led the US-backed Kurdish factions to expel ISIS from Raqqa and also led other factions in eastern Syria to fight ISIS. The Kurds became significantly important in northern Syria, specifically the Kurdish areas in Syria. The most prominent Kurdish force there is the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF), which, with significant American support, had recovered the most important areas from ISIS control. They controlled all of eastern Euphrates—about 28 percent of Syrian territory—but it is the wealthiest region in oil and gas resources, as well as water and agricultural wealth, from Kobani to Raqqa, the Al-Bukamal district, and Deir ez-Zor. This would not affect the regime, as the Kurdish forces move by American order and thus do not stand in the way of the regime. Many media outlets have recently circulated reports of the People's Protection Units (YPG), the largest component of the SDF, handing over several areas to the Syrian regime by American order, under agreements that took place in Damascus and Qamishli. (Fouad Aliko, a leader in the "Kurdish National Council" in Syria, revealed the reasons and variables that pushed the Kurdish "Democratic Union Party" (PYD) to conclude an undisclosed agreement with the Syrian regime, whereby the latter took over areas that were under Kurdish control, including the Al-Nashwa neighborhood in Hasakah and other areas east of the Euphrates River.) (2018/07/16 https://arabi21.com). The Hierapolis website quoted a private source that a meeting took place last Saturday "between figures belonging to the SDF militia representing its Manbij Military Council and officials belonging to the Assad regime at the headquarters of the Ba'ath Party branch in the city of Aleppo." It added that they discussed "the process of handing over the security square in the city of Manbij to the regime militias, in addition to the Shuhada Dam (Tishrin Dam) southeast of the city" (2018/07/11 www.qasioun-news.com). The leaders of Kurdish groups in northern Syria have become dependent on America; if America wants them to return to the lap of its agent Bashar, they will not refuse. There are signs of this, as the Rai al-Youm newspaper website (2018/6/7) quoted the prominent Kurdish leader Salih Muslim regarding the rush to negotiate with the regime: "Our doors were always open to everyone, and we have found a change in Assad's speech recently. Two months ago he was describing us as terrorists, and now he is talking about negotiation; this is progress... and just as everyone thinks of their interests, we will also think of ours." Syrian Regime Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem previously stated, as reported by the London-based Al-Arab newspaper (2017/9/27): "Syrian Kurds want a form of self-management within the borders of the Syrian Arab Republic. This subject is open to negotiation and dialogue." The regime and the Kurds are an American card that does not represent any obstacle to a political solution; what America wants for them, they do not refuse, nor does the regime, whether they remain as they were before 2011 or with autonomy within Syria.
The second front was led by Turkey in the battle of "Euphrates Shield" north of Aleppo on 2016/08/24, and then "Olive Branch" on 2018/01/20. This facilitated the regime's entry into Aleppo and southern Idlib because those factions, by Turkish order, left their battles with the regime and engaged in the fighting in the Shield and the Branch, so Aleppo and southern Idlib were lost or nearly so! Turkey was before that, and it continues to this day at the behest of America, practicing another role in Idlib. It entered the region with reconnaissance units starting from 2017/10/7, then by deploying its forces and establishing observation points within the de-escalation agreement with Russia and Iran. This came after Erdogan's meeting with US President Trump on 2017/9/21 in New York, where Trump stated that day, "Erdogan has become a friend of mine" (Anadolu, 2017/9/21). The conversation between them was focused on the situation in Syria. Trump approved Turkey's entry into Idlib (The Turkish army began a reconnaissance operation in the Syrian province of Idlib with the aim of establishing a de-escalation zone under the Astana agreement... Sky News Arabia, 2017/10/09). The "Enab Baladi" website published on 2018/05/13 that the Turkish operation is still ongoing: "Turkey is completing the steps it began in Idlib province and is moving in two directions: the first is deploying the observation points agreed upon in the Astana de-escalation agreement, and the other is organizing the military structure of the factions operating there without agreement until today with the Islamic factions..." Enab Baladi added: "Since the beginning of this year, Turkish observation points have spread in Idlib on the eastern borders of the Idlib pocket without the western strip, which raised questions about the reasons that limited the points to the east only!... According to sources, the factions received Turkish support only once... Despite Turkish movements, Russian airstrikes remain the most prominent thorny file in the daily scene of Idlib... According to Enab Baladi correspondents in Idlib and its countryside, Russian aircraft target the southern Idlib countryside with high-explosive missiles whose echo is heard throughout Idlib."
The third front: America moved the Saudi regime, which participated in the international coalition and was declaring that it was ready to send ground forces to Syria for America's account and under its leadership. This regime played a dirty role like the Turkish regime by putting the armed factions, which were poisoned by its money, under its influence and preventing these factions from advancing toward the heart of the capital, Damascus, even though they were, as it is said, within eyesight of it and some within a stone's throw! It is the one that subjected them to accepting negotiations with the regime, making the factions that fell under the influence of its funding come to Riyadh and accept participation in negotiations. Thus was the Riyadh 1 meeting on 2015/12/11 and the issuance of the Riyadh statement, and the Riyadh 2 conference on November 22-24, 2017, forming a joint delegation to negotiate with the regime in Geneva and Vienna under American instruction and planning. The Saudi regime is still ready to provide services to America. Saudi Crown Prince Ibn Salman, after meeting his masters in America, announced what they instructed him to say to Time magazine, which quoted him on 2018/4/6: "I believe that Bashar al-Assad is staying for the time being. I do not believe that Bashar will leave without a war, and I do not believe there is anyone who wants to start this war."
The fourth front was for the forces of Bashar, Iran, and Russia, after Turkey guaranteed them "de-escalation" in the primary areas. The forces of that front fought battles in Palmyra and reached Deir ez-Zor, all with the collusion of Turkey and Saudi Arabia and their influence on the factions, diverting them from confronting the tyrant to other fronts under the pretext of combating "terrorism." Thus, the regime breathed a sigh of relief and shook off the dust of many defeats it suffered during the years of the revolution, appearing strong in the negotiation rounds in Geneva as well as Astana, where it began speaking from a position of power and withdrawing from negotiations. The factions began asking countries to pressure it to accept a peaceful solution, after it had been a demand of the regime to save it from collapse!
c- Removing sources of distraction: In addition to America excluding European countries from the Syrian scene and limiting it between itself and Russia internationally—even though Russia is not a separate entity from America in Syria, but rather America used Russia and its standing by Bashar as a front for international negotiations regarding Syria and to prevent European countries from intervening—no less important was America's endeavor to limit regional distractions from "Qatar and Jordan":
- As for Qatar, America incited Saudi Arabia and Egypt against it and imposed a boycott on it in mid-2017, accusing it of supporting "terrorism" in Syria. Thus, the regime in Qatar found itself under direct threat from America's agents, so it refrained from continuing its interference in Syria, and its effective role ended.
- As for Jordan, it and its intelligence were establishing strong relations with the factions of the south in Syria, which was in favor of Britain in hopes of gaining some influence in Syria. To limit this, America itself initiated negotiations with Russia regarding the "de-escalation" deception in southern Syria. Thus, it enabled the regime to gain almost complete control over the south, and then the effective influence of Jordan ended or nearly so.
By examining American policy and the policy of its followers, especially Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with Egypt following to a lesser degree due to its internal problems, we find that America is moving simultaneously along all the broad lines it drew for Syria mentioned above. It leaves the door wide open for the efforts of the regime, Russia, and Iran to strike the opposition militarily and removes any doubts among the opposition that America might come to its aid. When the regime began its campaign against Daraa and the southern region, supported by Russian aviation, America sent a message to the factions in the Free Army through its embassy in Jordan on 2018/6/23, saying: "We understand that you must make your decision according to your interests and the interests of your families and your faction as you see them, and you should not base your decision on an assumption or expectation of military intervention by us" (Enab Baladi website 2018/6/23). This means America is cutting off any hope for the factions cooperating with it that it might come to their aid! It is as if some of them, as reported by some media outlets, woke up from their heedlessness and said that America had deceived them! Only now?
Thus, America is effectively pursuing a policy of eradicating the armed factions in Syria through the regime, Iran, and Russia, and is not placing any obstacles in front of that, but before and after that is the effective contribution from Turkey and Saudi Arabia! As for American support for the factions, it stopped at the level of statements or money paid to leaders in exchange for loyalty. Whatever American weapons reached them were simple, few, ineffective, and defensive in nature (non-lethal). This was in the past aimed at convincing the revolutionaries that America was with them and supported them so they would follow it. As for today, after Bashar's military edge has prevailed, that talk has ended, and with it the American statements in this regard, and this file has been closed by America as well as by its followers, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
As for the path of political negotiations, America was postponing it until the revolution was crushed and Bashar could stand on his feet. Therefore, it kept its followers and agents busy preparing conditions in side talks until the circumstances for a political solution matured, so the main seat would be for it. Consequently, during the path of political negotiations that lasted for years, America's agents and followers in Saudi Arabia and Turkey were active in organizing meetings and conferences for the Syrian opposition, highlighting some leaders in the political scene and removing others—all in a back-and-forth until the regime stood on its feet, so America could take over the political solution with or without a role for Russia. However, after the major military achievements of Bashar and his allies in the city of Aleppo, then Wadi Barada and Qalamoun, then Eastern Ghouta and the removal of threats from around Damascus the capital, then the countrysides of Homs and Hama, and today in Daraa, and perhaps after that in Idlib and what remains of the Aleppo countryside—these major achievements suggest that the American political solution is approaching, but it is postponed until after Idlib. It seems they are preparing for that; they completed the implementation of the Foah-Zabadani agreement, and a final agreement was concluded between Russia and Turkey on 2018/7/17 providing for the evacuation of the residents of the towns of Foah and Kafriya loyal to the regime in Idlib province, where they were besieged by factions, so that no pressure cards remain in the hands of the factions and so the regime is not embarrassed if it attacks the area and commits massacres. Thus, nothing remains before the American political solution except Idlib and with it the western Aleppo countryside. It is an important area with a large gathering of revolutionaries, but Turkey has a significant path over many of the armed factions there. It is likely that Turkey will pressure them to hand over heavy weapons to the regime and reconcile with it, which is more dangerous than the war of the regime, Russia, and Iran, even though both are danger and harm. If the military force is stripped from the Syrian revolution, the American political solution will be under preparation and implementation. It is likely that America wants to keep Bashar for a "transitional" period as part of its political solution, ensuring during that period the liquidation of opponents, and then bringing an agent like Bashar who continues to maintain its influence in Syria, as well as preserving the security of its foster child, the Jewish state occupying Palestine. This state wants an agent like Bashar in Syria who preserves its security so not a single shot is fired at it. Netanyahu stated to journalists before leaving Moscow on Thursday 2018/07/12: "We have not had a problem with the Assad regimes (father and son) for forty years; not a single bullet was fired from the Golan Heights. We do not oppose the stability of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but we will act to protect our borders." (Haaretz, 2018/7/12).
The military force possessed by the Syrian regime is weak and insufficient to control Syria after the political solution, as Bashar's army has become significantly exhausted. Despite the unending supply of weapons provided to it by various American channels, whether through Russia, Iran, or others, human power remains its main problem. Therefore, it is expected that any American political solution must rely on a force capable of protecting it, and America may take one of the following two paths or both together:
a- Continuing reliance on Iran, its party, and its other militias of Iranians, Afghans, Pakistanis, etc. This requires housing them and granting them citizenship, which some news reports indicate the Syrian regime is doing today. An expert estimated to the German agency DW on 2018/4/30 the number of those militias at 45 and the number of their members approaching 40,000. The expert mentioned: "In my belief, these militias will stay in Syria... and we have witnessed a process of resettlement in the Damascus belt; the Shiite militias are present in the Sayyida Zeinab neighborhood and other areas... and I believe that Iran is trying, as is the case for the Popular Mobilization Forces, to naturalize these people or take other paths that help them stay in the region." Although the regime forces the sons of the areas it brings back under its control into compulsory military service, loyalty doubts make it rely on those militias that fought alongside it during the years of the revolution.
b- Relying on regional forces for "peacekeeping," and it may bring in Egyptian, Saudi, and Turkish forces for this purpose. This talk is not new; Al Jazeera Net quoted an American magazine on 2016/4/8: "The American magazine The National Interest pointed to the war that has been ravaging Syria for years and said that the country, which has slipped into a quagmire, needs peacekeeping forces, regardless of any form the conflict ends in." This American vision for the solution in Syria, which involves bringing in forces from abroad despite Bashar's military achievements, has not ended. Al Jazeera Net reported on 2018/4/17: "The Wall Street Journal said that the administration of President Donald Trump plans to replace US forces with Arab forces in Syria to maintain stability in the northeast of the country after the defeat of the Islamic State organization. The newspaper reported that US National Security Advisor John Bolton contacted the acting Egyptian intelligence director Abbas Kamel to find out Cairo's position on this endeavor. It added that contact was also made with Gulf countries to participate in these forces and provide financial support for them, and administration officials expected Arab countries to respond to Trump's request, especially regarding financial support."
This is what the facts that have taken and are taking place regarding American policy in Syria indicate. By contemplating it, it becomes clear that the continuation of the regime and its failure to fall was not primarily due to the strength of the regime, nor the strength of America and its followers Russia, Iran, and its militias, nor the strength of the followers and agents Turkey and Saudi Arabia, even if all that had an effect. Rather, the greatest reason was the betrayal or deception and collusion of many faction leaders due to their trust in America—that it was with them—forgetting that it is an enemy to Islam and Muslims in all its actions. Likewise, trust in its followers and agents Turkey and Saudi Arabia, forgetting how Aleppo was handed over by opening the Euphrates Shield front and withdrawing fighters from it, and then Olive Branch, which directed the fighters there and left southern Idlib an easy target for Russia and the regime. As for Saudi Arabia, those factions forgot how it prepared them for negotiation with the tyrant regime in meetings and negotiations that recognize the regime more than removing it, and here is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia revealing what was hidden, declaring that Bashar is staying. Then the most appalling and bitter thing is that Russia bombs them with its lava brutally, yet they negotiate with it and hand over their heavy and medium weapons! It is a painful sight to see Russia receiving their tanks and cannons while they are closer to humiliation and submissiveness. All of that is the basic reason for what happened. They spent long years fighting the regime and advancing in its areas, but in a few days they left Aleppo through collusion from Turkey, and in less than that they left southern Syria, especially Daraa, through collusion from Saudi Arabia. In both cases, their weapon stores were full of the weapons they seized from the regime's army. It is truly a sad matter that they stood firm for years against barrel bombs, destructive missiles, and lethal weapons from the regime, Russia, Iran, and its militias, but in days, through collusion and betrayal, they hand over their places without fighting, and even their heavy and medium weapons! And they leave their homes as displaced people!! Whoever contemplates this sees that the basic reason is the factions' trust in the enemies of Islam and Muslims, and their trust in the agents and followers, whether those faction leaders knew or were ignorant, and whether they were intentional or made a mistake—both are bitter. A questioner may ask, and he has the right to ask: since Hizb ut-Tahrir has this degree of awareness, insight, and realization of the course of events, why did it not advise the factions and enlighten them so they would not fall into what they fell into? I say to whoever asks this question: our tongues have worn out while we were advising them, exhorting them, and explaining the reality of the matter to them with evidence and proofs. Our feet have grown tired from walking to them to advise and guide them, as some paths to them were difficult for cars to traverse, so we walked them on foot. Indeed, due to our frequent contact with them, some of them thought we were one of them!! If the one asking this question looked at our publications and answers to questions—and how many they are—he would know that we exerted every effort in this matter, even beyond effort, but many of those leaders do not pay heed nor fear [Allah]. Rather, they used to say when we warned them against the dirty money they took from those treacherous countries: "And from where shall we get money then? Hizb ut-Tahrir does not give us money," so they beautified for themselves taking money from the disbelievers and traitors! If we said to them that you will thus be hostages to them, they said no! So what was lost was lost while they wander blindly in their heedlessness. And if we said to them that you seize many and plentiful weapons from the regime, so why do you humiliate yourselves at the doors of those traitors to take a little of something of weapons? They would say, "From where do we take weapons while Hizb ut-Tahrir does not give us weapons?" If we told them that your necks would be held hostage to them because of these weapons, they said to us, "We take from the enemy and fight the enemy!" Then it became clear to them after it was too late that the weapons were denied to them when they were in most need of them; rather, they surrendered their weapons due to the collusion of those traitors. Thus, we advised them, but they do not like the advisers! As an example, I mention some of what came in our publication on 2018/04/05:
(...And although the Party spared no effort in making those factions aware and enlightening them about what is going on and revolving, they were justifying their following of those by saying that they support them with money and weapons, and that the Party cannot do that, but only supports them with advice... They add that this advice is of no use against the striking of swords! They did not realize that the sword is in the hand of its holder, double-edged; in the hand of the aware and insightful, it is a shield that protects him from the evil of his opponent and a strong means to defeat his enemy... but in the hand of the deceived person running after the support of the criminals, it is a torn shield whose wires stick out through it, killing the one in whose hand it is before his opponent kills him!
And we turn to those factions that used to refuse our awareness and enlightenment to them... for they used to say this is talk that is of no use in war, rather they want support with money and weapons which they find with the traitors of the Muslims—Arabs, Turks, and Persians—indeed some of them add even if from the criminals of the Russians and Americans, thinking that their taking of dirty money from those will not prevent them from fighting for Ash-Sham... We say to all of these: here you are seeing the result of your actions and words; you have become displaced and driven out even from your homes and children!)
In conclusion, we say: nothing remains of the places except Idlib, and Erdogan may have other "shields" and "branches" in his bag that lose Idlib and its surroundings while he remains still, not showing any movement. We say to the factions and turn to them not to be deceived by Erdogan's movements and not to leave Idlib to the regime. Do not forget what befell you in Aleppo, and remember the Hadith of the Messenger ﷺ narrated by Al-Bukhari on the authority of Abu Hurayrah (ra) from the Prophet ﷺ:
«لَا يُلْدَغُ الْمُؤْمِنُ مِنْ جُحْرٍ وَاحِدٍ مَرَّتَيْنِ»
"A believer is not stung from the same hole twice."
So how about if it was times and times?!
إِنَّ فِي ذَلِكَ لَذِكْرَى لِمَنْ كَانَ لَهُ قَلْبٌ أَوْ أَلْقَى السَّمْعَ وَهُوَ شَهِيدٌ
"Indeed in that is a reminder for whoever has a heart or who listens while he is present [in mind]." (Qaf [50]: 37)
And as a final conclusion, we emphasize what we have said before: that days rotate, and this Ummah has been afflicted with the like of this and worse, from the Crusaders and the Tatars, then it returned and rose, uprooted them, and led the world anew. It is true that the rule of Islam was the effective one in those days, and that the Khilafah existed even if it was weak, so the Ummah had a head that gathered it to fight its enemy, establish the truth, and abolish falsehood, and thus it defeated its enemy and rose again. Today there is no rule by Islam, and there is no Khilafah; so who is it that gathers the Muslims for fighting? Someone might say such a statement, and it is a correct description of reality, but the work for the Khilafah is continuing strongly by Allah's permission, and it has become a primary demand for Muslims in their countries. they watch for that in word and deed, and they move to overturn those black days—26, 27, 28 Rajab 1342 AH—which were the stage for conspiracy and crime in the abolition of the Khilafah. They move to remove those black days and return them bright with the Khilafah anew on a day decreed by Allah, and that is not difficult for Allah. At that time, those who have wronged, betrayed, and committed crimes will know to what [kind of] return they will be returned. Muslims must not despair of Allah's mercy, for Ash-Sham will remain Ash-Sham; it is the heart of the Abode of Islam: Na'im bin Hammad narrated in Al-Fitan from Kathir bin Murrah who said: The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
«عُقْرُ دَارِ الْإِسْلَامِ بِالشَّامِ»
"The heart of the Abode of Islam is in Ash-Sham."
The Party is reassured of Allah's victory, not only for the prophets and messengers but also for the sincere believers, and not only in the Hereafter but in this world as well:
إِنَّا لَنَنْصُرُ رُسُلَنَا وَالَّذِينَ آمَنُوا فِي الْحَيَاةِ الدُّنْيَا وَيَوْمَ يَقُومُ الْأَشْهَادُ
"Indeed, We will support Our messengers and those who believe during the life of this world and on the Day when the witnesses will stand." (Ghafir [40]: 51)
On that day, the believers will rejoice in Allah's victory, and those who committed crimes will be hit by humiliation in this world and a painful punishment in the Hereafter. Allah is the Avenger, the All-Mighty, the All-Wise.
16th of Dhu al-Qi'dah 1439 AH 29/07/2018 CE