Question:
On 27/02/2023, the Al-Arabiya website reported: (Kremlin: We welcome the Chinese peace plan, but a settlement is far off). Similarly, on the same date, Al-Youm channel's website reported: (The Kremlin said that Russia is looking with interest at the Chinese peace plan in Ukraine, noting that the details of the proposal need careful analysis and calculations, as described). On 21/02/2023, Putin announced ("that Russia suspended its participation in the New START treaty signed with the United States"... Anadolu, 21/02/2023). These statements came after Biden's visit to Kyiv on 20/02/2023 and his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, where Biden said (Kyiv would receive a new military aid package worth $500 million to be announced Tuesday... Sky News Arabia 20/02/2023). These statements were preceded by the announcement of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the Munich Security Conference that China has a peace initiative for Ukraine, stating ("this war cannot continue to flare up"... CNN Arabic, 18/02/2023).
The question is: Is China capable of stopping the war in Ukraine? Why is China proposing this initiative a year after the war broke out? Why does Russia welcome the plan but then say a settlement is far off? And what are its chances of success?
Answer:
To clarify the answer to the above questions, we review the following matters:
First: The influential countries regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war:
America: Under the leadership of President Biden, America succeeded in removing European doubts about American leadership of the Western world. The Biden administration unified Western efforts to provide military and non-military aid to Ukraine so it could stand firm against the Russian offensive. It unified the West in imposing economic sanctions on Russia, succeeded in cutting off Russian energy arteries to Europe, and even included countries far from Europe in the sanctions, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. It revitalized NATO after it had become a subject of doubt during the previous Trump administration. The Biden administration began increasing weapons to Ukraine and announced that its goal is to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
The Major European Powers: While it is no longer possible to distinguish British positions from American positions against Russia, Germany and France have since followed suit. With every cut of Russian energy arteries to Europe, Germany increased its anti-Russian stances. German Foreign Minister Baerbock, in the context of efforts to unify European positions regarding the supply of tanks to Ukraine, said: ("We are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other"... Al-Shorouk, 24/01/2023), leading former Russian President Medvedev to describe her as a "useful fool" (Anadolu, 29/01/2023), meaning she admits Europe is a party to the Ukrainian conflict. As for France, which faced criticism from its allies due to its president's contacts with the Russian president, it has finally boarded the same train as the other European countries behind the American locomotive against Russia. Its president, Macron, said while returning from the Munich conference, according to Sky News Arabia, 19/02/2023: ("I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine and I want Ukraine to be able to defend its position").
Russia: After the aura of power that internationally covered the Russian army, the war in Ukraine revealed serious weaknesses that lowered the rank of the Russian army, which was defeated around Kyiv, in Kharkiv, and finally in Kherson. After the Russian army was the pillar of Russia's greatness, nothing remains of it except Russia's nuclear power as an international pillar of its greatness. As for the Russian economy, it is fundamentally weak. Politically, America and Europe have succeeded to a large extent in imposing international isolation on Russia. This is in addition to Russia's lack of internal consensus on the war; when it imposed mandatory conscription, many Russians fled abroad!
Second: The impact of all these international variables on China:
China realizes that it is at the top of the American priority list, even before Russia. America challenges China regarding Taiwan and embarrasses it. It challenges it through unprecedented military maneuvers with South Korea. It challenges it if it proceeds to compensate Russia for its losses due to the sanctions imposed on Moscow. It challenges it if it proceeds to provide lethal military support to Russia. It also besieges its economy covertly, as in the economic war America is waging against the Chinese company Huawei and other technology companies, and overtly when it cut off electronic chips on the pretext of their military use and that China threatens American national security. China sees America arming Japan, making it a pain in its side, if not developing it to be a pain in China's heart. It also sees other military alliances America is establishing in Asia such as AUKUS and QUAD. All of this imposes massive challenges on China and its army.
As for the European countries, which constitute a major economic partner for China similar to America, they have complied with Washington's desires for joint coordination. This joint coordination was revitalized after Russia ignited the war in Ukraine and Europe's urgent need for the American security umbrella to protect the continent from Russian threats emerged. China witnessed that the American leadership of European countries, which was restored by the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine, has begun to drag European countries to adopt American positions against China. The term "like-minded" countries emerged in reference to the capitalist countries and their "Westernized" followers in East Asia. There is even talk promoting a role for NATO in East Asia, which is a dangerous threat to China, indicating that America is capable of dragging many countries against Beijing.
As for Russia, its weakness leads it to be a junior partner to China, especially as the international arena narrows for it bit by bit. Europe has abandoned its oil and gas, with only a small amount remaining after Russia held the energy nerve in Europe. While Europe and America close their doors to Russia, they pursue it at the thresholds of other countries, demanding those countries adhere to the oil price cap imposed on Russia. All of this makes Russia look to China as almost the only door through which it can dispose of its energy sources and raw materials, which the West calls "Russian trade begging at China's door." This situation constitutes an embarrassment for China with America and Europe, which represent the most important destinations for its trade.
As for China itself, despite the continued ambiguity of its declared positions on the war in Ukraine, it must see that the outcomes of that war do not please it. China signed a "limitless alliance" document with Russia shortly before it ignited the war in Ukraine. When America and European countries demanded China take a stand against Russian aggression on Ukraine, China's positions were ambiguous. On one hand, it did not declare support for the Russian war, nor did it declare support for its ally Russia, and it contented itself with holding America responsible for its outbreak because it did not agree to give Russia security guarantees. It was as if China was waiting for Russia to impose a new fait accompli in Ukraine and for security to stabilize within Ukraine, forcing Western countries to recognize a new international status for Russia. This might have tickled the feelings of the Chinese that it implicitly meant a better international status for China, especially in Taiwan. With the emergence of the Russian army's weakness and the defeats it received on the battlefronts in Ukraine, China's positions have been dominated by a state of fluctuation, as if it is retreating from its alliance with Russia.
All these Western positions that smell of hostility toward China did not push China to adopt similar positions against America and European countries, nor did China show support for Russia. This is because China's rise and new status depend entirely on its foreign trade, where the markets of America and European countries represent an authentic artery for China's greatness. This differs from Russia, whose international status is based on its military legacy from the Soviet Union, not its economy and international trade. But from another angle, China continued to conduct joint military maneuvers with Russia on the high seas in Asia and outside Asia. Perhaps it wanted to be in the middle, not losing Russia, which it needs if the "great event" occurs between it and America, while not wanting to lose the Western countries whose trade represents the artery of its economy.
Third: Thus, these positions made China think like a mediator carrying an initiative to solve the crisis between the two parties, even if China's relations with the two sides were not balanced. All this means that China sees many black clouds gathering in its sky after Russia ignited the war on Ukraine. These clouds constitute the first part, or the Chinese part, of the Chinese peace initiative in Ukraine. But this part would not have produced any serious initiative except by joining the second part, the Russian part. Examining this part, we find:
That Russia, although it announced mobilization and recruited nearly half a million new soldiers, and although it returned to the offensive as is the case today around the city of Bakhmut in Donbas, has begun to realize the impossibility of winning the war. This is because it stands not only against the Ukrainian army but, according to its own description, "against the capabilities of the NATO alliance," which explicitly provides Ukraine with lethal military support with the explicit goal of defeating Russia in Ukraine. It appears that Russia has realized it is facing a solid American will to defeat it in Ukraine and internationally. Finland and Sweden are on the verge of becoming new members of NATO, and they are the closest countries geographically to Russia. Germany, Russia's arch-enemy throughout history, is rapidly militarizing. In the East, the Japanese army may soon become a major threat to Russia, especially since Japan demands the Kuril Islands from Russia, which Russia occupied during World War II. All these Ukrainian and international developments impose great security burdens on Russia and reveal more of its weakness, especially since it is under unprecedented economic sanctions.
These signs of Russian weakness, which represent a new Russian admission of the outcomes of its war in Ukraine and the search for a way to stop the deterioration of its army and economy and the deterioration of the international circumstances around it, are the second Russian part that is no less important than the first Chinese part of the peace initiative. In other words, Russia wants to stop the war in Ukraine, but it wants its face to be saved.
Therefore, the meeting of the two parts (the negative international effects of the war on China, and Russia's despair of victory in Ukraine) is what produced this Chinese peace initiative in Ukraine. This situation did not exist a year ago at the start of the war. It seems that China expected Russia to settle the war in its favor quickly, so China waited at the beginning of the war to offer an initiative. But now, after the near-despair in Russia of victory and the emergence of a Russian inclination for negotiations while saving face, China undertook this initiative.
This is the reality of China's peace initiative in Ukraine, and this explains its timing, especially what appeared in the initiative of the text on respecting the sovereignty of states to entice the West and Ukraine. The Chinese Foreign Minister announced in the initiative support for Ukraine's sovereignty, saying (the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries will be respected in China's proposal. CNN Arabic, 18/02/2023), as an enticing entry for the West into negotiations.
Fourth: As for the question about the viability of this Chinese initiative for success, i.e., ending the war in Ukraine, this depends on several influential factors:
It depends primarily on the position of America, followed by the positions of the European countries supporting Ukraine—positions echoed by the rigid stance emanating from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and from President Zelensky. These Ukrainian and Western positions are summarized by the necessity of the Russian army's withdrawal from all occupied territories in Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, as a condition for peace negotiations. This means negotiation with Russia will not be over land, but over reparations and bringing war criminals to an international court. These conditions are rejected by Russia, which alludes to the reality on the ground—namely, a ceasefire at the current front lines, followed by negotiations. Certainly, Russia wants to make concessions after the ceasefire in a way that saves its face on one hand, and on the other hand, gives it some territorial gains, even if symbolic, in addition to lifting sanctions and releasing its frozen funds.
It appears today that Western countries are not interested in the Chinese initiative and that they are planning for a total defeat of Russia in Ukraine and are waiting for it. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said: ("We need more evidence that China is not working with Russia, and we do not see that now." CNN Arabic, 18/02/2023). The US Secretary of State accused China of supporting Russia: (Blinken said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that China is "thinking strongly" about sending ammunition and weapons to Russia as its war on Ukraine reaches its first year. Al-Quds Al-Arabi, 20/02/2023). These are sufficient signals that the West is proceeding with supporting Ukraine in order to defeat Russia.
For all these reasons, the Chinese peace initiative in Ukraine, despite its suggestion of respecting the territorial integrity of states—implying that a Russian withdrawal is possible—is, according to today's circumstances, unacceptable to America and its followers in Europe, as well as Ukraine, which possesses neither the power to accept nor reject. This is because America supports Ukraine in a steady, increasing, and rolling manner in terms of the quality of weapons provided, and announces through its president, Biden, that the Russian president will not win in Ukraine. This solid American will is followed by a similar will in Britain, as well as the countries of Eastern Europe like Poland and the Baltic states, which harbor a deep hatred for Russia. This means the Chinese peace initiative receives neither acceptance nor welcome from America. It seems these positions have embarrassed Russia, so its statements about the initiative began to be veiled with acceptance without showing it publicly—advancing one foot while retreating the other. Sky News Arabia reported on 27/02/2023 on its news site: [The Kremlin says regarding China's initiative: ("The conditions are not conducive to peace in Ukraine") but returned to say: ("Russia expresses its appreciation for the Chinese peace plan...")] Likewise, the Al-Youm channel website reported on 27/02/2023 (The Kremlin said that Russia is looking with interest at the Chinese peace plan in Ukraine, noting that the details of the proposal need careful analysis and calculations, as described). It is as if Russia is keeping a way out for itself.
Fifth: In summary, the coming period will witness a new development titled the Chinese initiative to end the war in Ukraine. These Chinese efforts have become, a year after the outbreak of that war, a hope for Russia to exit the extremely dangerous Ukrainian quagmire for its international status, in addition to these efforts being a Chinese interest in the first place. However, America, Europe, the NATO alliance, and Ukraine reject this initiative and are skeptical of it. Therefore, the chances of this initiative's success seem at their lowest levels unless international circumstances change or Russia proves it is capable of launching a major and influential offensive in Ukraine, which is unlikely in the foreseeable future given that America and the NATO countries are lying in wait for Russia and standing ready to provide Ukraine with all the lifelines of combat to prevent a Russian victory.
In conclusion, these kafir colonialist states called the "major powers" in today's world are clashing among themselves not for the good of the world but for evil and harm. Russia aggresses against Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian that moves, and America and the West fight the aggression with every Ukrainian and not with their own soldiers! Both parties are clashing in Ukraine to kill every Ukrainian. Such are these countries that seek corruption on earth; they give no weight to the amount of blood shed as long as it achieves their interests, even a fraction of their interests. It is as if history repeats itself when the Persian and Roman states were clashing; this one prevails and that one is defeated, and so on. Each of them behaves like a machine that sucks people's blood to achieve its own interests. This continued until Allah honored the people of truth and justice, the Islamic Ummah, with victory and clear conquest (Al-Fath), so Islam and the Muslims became mighty, and kufr and the kuffar were humiliated. This will happen again, by Allah's permission:
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (TMQ Ar-Rum [30]:4-5)
9th of Sha'ban 1444 AH
01/03/2023 CE