Question:
Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed published on its website on 2025/1/21: "...Nawaf Salam emerged after his meeting with President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday evening at the Baabda Palace, carrying a black file without disclosing whether he had submitted any draft of names or a ministerial lineup...", noting that: [After a presidential vacancy exceeding two years due to political disputes, the Lebanese Parliament elected Aoun as the country's president on 2025/1/9. Four days after his election, Aoun tasked Nawaf Salam with forming a new Lebanese government... Al Jazeera 2025/1/20].
What is happening in Lebanon regarding the speed of the agreement to install the Army Commander, Joseph Aoun, as President on 2025/1/9 after the post was vacant for more than two years, and then, a few days later, the agreement on Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister on 2025/1/13? How did all this happen so quickly? Does this speed mean that work was being prepared—and still is—to change the face of Lebanon internally and externally, or is it a routine change as occurs in the region?
Answer: To clarify the answers to the above questions, we review the following:
First: Major political developments in the region and the world are what led to this rapid shift in Lebanon, resulting in Aoun's election as President and Nawaf Salam’s appointment as Prime Minister. To clarify this, we say:
Following the Jewish entity's assassination of the leadership of the Party of Iran (Hezbollah) and before the ceasefire, calls emerged in Lebanon to elect a president and end the vacancy. These calls were led by opponents of the Party of Iran, such as Samir Geagea’s group, which openly declared its refusal to support Gaza in the war. This was an exploitation of the situation resulting from the war and was done in consultation with European envoys who were touring Lebanon in parallel with the tours of the American envoy, Hochstein, which focused on the ceasefire. The Party of Iran used to denounce these calls from the Lebanese opposition.
After 12 failed sessions to elect a president in Lebanon over the past two years, various political forces in Lebanon almost suddenly agreed on the personality of the Army Commander, Joseph Aoun, to be the new president and end the vacancy. The Party of Iran had been declaring that its candidate was Suleiman Frangieh (Al-Alam TV, 2025/1/7). This Frangieh is considered part of the Iranian axis and the defunct Bashar regime. Then, Suleiman Frangieh announced the withdrawal of his candidacy for the sake of consensus.
Supporters of the Iranian axis (its Party and the Amal Movement) did not vote for Joseph Aoun in the first session; the vote failed because he did not obtain a two-thirds majority (86 votes). Then, in the second session and after a meeting with these parliamentary blocs, they voted for him, and he received 99 votes. Thus, voting for Joseph Aoun in the second session was intended to show that without the votes of the Party of Iran and the Amal Movement, Joseph would not have won the presidency. Although this carries some meaning that the influence of Iran's followers still exists and that they influence the voting, their abandonment of obstruction—which they were capable of—signifies a retreat.
On 2025/1/13, a new Prime Minister for Lebanon was appointed, Nawaf Salam. He was promoted as a candidate for political consensus; he is neither Najib Mikati, the candidate of the Party of Iran and its allies, nor Fouad Makhzoumi, the candidate of Samir Geagea’s group (the opponents of the Party of Iran). Thus, Nawaf Salam was tasked with the premiership in Lebanon.
Nawaf Salam was a candidate rejected by the Party of Iran and its allied forces in Lebanon. The Party of Iran rejected him in 2019 after the resignation of Saad Hariri, calling him at the time the "U.S. candidate," and Hassan Diab was appointed then. The Party rejected his nomination again the following year after the Beirut port explosion on 2020/8/4.
It appears that this choice angered the Party of Iran and the Amal Movement: (Al Jazeera correspondent reported on 2025/1/13 that Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc did not name any candidate for the Lebanese premiership. Following the meeting of the "Hezbollah" bloc deputies with the Lebanese President to name a Prime Minister, MP Mohammad Hassan Raad expressed his regret, saying that some are working to exclude and eliminate the group. He added, in statements to reporters, "We took a positive step in our meeting with the President of the Republic, but we did not find an extended hand," stressing that the group will act calmly and wisely for the sake of the national interest. A source close to Hezbollah had reported that the party and its ally, the Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, support re-appointing Mikati. He explained that re-naming Mikati was "part of the agreement reached with the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Yazid bin Mohammed bin Fahd Al Farhan, which led to Hezbollah and Amal proceeding with the election of Aoun as President last Thursday"). In the same vein, the BBC reported on 2025/1/13 from the head of the Party of Iran's bloc in parliament that the re-naming of Aoun is "part of the agreement reached with the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, which led to Hezbollah and Amal proceeding with the election of Aoun as President."
Second: This is how things proceeded in Lebanon; the Parliament elected a new president and a new Prime Minister was appointed. Upon scrutiny, we find the following:
We find that America is completely satisfied with the new political developments in Lebanon; rather, more accurately, it is the one overseeing them. President Biden said in a statement: ("I congratulate him on his election as President of Lebanon," and continued: "President Aoun will provide decisive leadership as Lebanon and (Israel) implement a full cessation of hostilities and as hundreds of thousands of people return to their homes and as Lebanon recovers and rebuilds. President Aoun has my confidence. I strongly believe he is the right leader for this time." CNN Arabic, 2025/1/9). Likewise, the American agent Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia congratulated him (Al-Hurra, 2025/1/9).
Thus, the new political developments in Lebanon have nothing to do with international conflict over it. Lebanon was in America's hands during the presidency of Michel Aoun, who appeared as part of the Iranian axis. The current President, Joseph Aoun, was appointed in 2017 as Army Commander by the American agent Michel Aoun, meaning that the current President Joseph Aoun is originally from the circle of American agents. In fact, before the presidential vacancy in 2022 and after it, America was providing military aid to the Lebanese army, meaning it has a strong relationship with the Army Commander Joseph Aoun. Nawaf Salam cannot be excluded from this framework either; he spent his life studying and teaching in French and American universities and international institutions, most recently as President of the International Court of Justice.
Thus, America is today changing the rules of its game in Lebanon. After relying on Iran, its axis, and its affiliated forces in Lebanon to consolidate its influence, it is today marginalizing these forces in favor of highlighting new figures to continue its influence in Lebanon. Lebanon was in America's grip and remains so, but America is changing the face and the form.
As for the forces affiliated with the Europeans, they know that their fire is less significant than America's. France, through its participation in the Quintet Committee, had been rejecting Joseph Aoun’s name as a presidential candidate since 2023 when the United States and Saudi Arabia proposed his name early on (Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, 2023/9/22). However, it was eventually forced to accept him. On the other hand, the Europeans lack the influence to make the president affiliated with them. Samir Geagea, who holds the largest Christian bloc in parliament, did not even openly declare his desire to run for the presidency given the strong opposition to his candidacy by the Party of Iran. The Party of Iran had said (No veto on any name except Samir Geagea; because his project is destructive to Lebanon. Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, 2025/1/6). Likewise, the name of the candidate Fouad Makhzoumi for the premiership, proposed by opposition parties, was rejected (RT, 2025/1/13). Therefore, the forces affiliated with the Europeans are unable to monopolize any of the three presidencies in Lebanon, and these positions remain in the hands of America’s followers.
However, the Europeans accept the new political developments in Lebanon: (French President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Aoun on his election as President of Lebanon in a tweet posted on his account on the X platform. Macron considered that these elections "open the way for reforms and the restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty and prosperity." Al-Hurra, 2025/1/10). What the French President said reflects the state of the European powers and their happiness with the receding shadow of Iran over Lebanon; meaning they settle for achieving part of their desires, which is putting Lebanon on a track away from Iran. They settle for their presence in the Quintet Committee to look into Lebanese affairs, which was formed after the presidential vacancy; France sits there side-by-side with America, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, while Qatar represents English interests therein.
This means that America is the dominant international player in Lebanon today, and it is the one switching faces and changing the form, while the Europeans settle for all this by lifting the Iranian shadow from Lebanon.
Third: As for changing the face of Lebanon internally and externally, this is evident from the following matters:
Internally in Lebanon, it is likely that restrictions on the weaponry of the Party of Iran will increase. The refrain of "Resistance," which previously accompanied presidential statements and communiqués in Lebanon, was absent from the new president's statements and communiqués:
a. (Unlike the traditional speeches that characterized previous eras after the Lebanese Civil War, Aoun's speech was loaded with clear messages, most notably his emphasis on the necessity of "securing the state's right to monopolize weapons" as a fundamental pillar for strengthening Lebanon's sovereignty. Al-Hurra, 2025/1/10). (Aoun said in his speech: The Lebanese state—and I repeat, the Lebanese state—will get rid of the Israeli occupation. CNN Arabic, 2025/1/10).
b. (Nawaf Salam paused at the media leaks regarding the distribution of portfolios to traditional parties and also following Hezbollah and the Amal Movement's conditions, especially by granting them the Ministry of Finance... Salam added that he "has not committed to giving any portfolio to any party, and as for the Finance portfolio, it is like other ministerial portfolios and is not restricted to one sect"... stressing that he is inclined toward a government of 24 ministers... Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, 21 January 2025).
Externally, by contemplating what is happening, the following is observed:
a. Unusually, no role appeared for Iran in choosing the President and the Prime Minister, even if the essence of this role existed behind the positions of its party in Lebanon. Since the Party of Iran and its allies could have obstructed those developments and did not, these American changes—which were described as a coup—are taking place with Iran's implicit approval. Iranian influence is indeed receding from the Arab region. America has entrusted Turkey with the political solution in Syria, removed Iran from it, and completely removed Russia from the Syrian equation. This is America's new policy in the region, and this is what it has done in Lebanon. This is not only the policy of the Biden administration; the incoming administration shares the same vision and will work to deepen it in Syria and Lebanon and extend it to Iraq. This American policy is completely consistent with what the Jewish entity wants and may be among the promises the Biden administration made to the Jewish entity when it pushed it to agree to the ceasefire in Lebanon.
b. It appears that the new Lebanese President realizes that America is bringing him in at this stage for major changes in the face of Lebanon. (President Aoun said at the beginning of his inaugural speech: "The honorable deputies have honored me by electing me President of the Lebanese Republic, which is the greatest medal I carry and the greatest responsibility. Thus, I have become the first president after the first centenary of the establishment of the State of Greater Lebanon, in the midst of a Middle Eastern earthquake in which alliances have cracked, regimes have fallen, and borders may change." Independent Arabia, 2025/1/11). According to the same source, he will head to Saudi Arabia as his first foreign destination: (Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said today, Saturday, that Saudi Arabia will be his first foreign destination, following an invitation to visit it during a phone call he had with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman).
c. It is also clear from all this that America is entrusting Saudi Arabia with Lebanese affairs this time, after it was Iran the previous time. Therefore, the Saudi role will be prominent in Lebanese affairs, and it will have a hand in reconstruction, especially since Iran is expected to be subject to new commercial and financial pressures imposed by the Trump administration. Thus, Saudi Arabia will be an alternative to Iran in Lebanon, both politically and financially, for reconstruction, supporting the state to strengthen its army, and facilitating the disarmament of the Party of Iran. This may pull Lebanon toward normalization with the Jewish entity, especially since the incoming American President, Trump, is rushing Saudi normalization with the Jewish entity.
Fourth: This terrible situation is likely to continue in Lebanon and around Lebanon until Allah brings about a matter that was promised. Then the Islamic State, the Khilafah State, will be established, and all these political forces from Lebanon and around Lebanon will evaporate, and with them, the Jewish entity will evaporate—just as the Assad regime evaporated from Syria. Thus, the land of Ash-Sham will return to its perpetual state: the beating heart of the entire Islamic Ummah. We are confident in the return of the Khilafah again after this oppressive rule (hukm jabri) in which we live... Ahmad narrated from Hudhayfah that he said: The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ. ثُمَّ سَكَتَ
"Then there will be an oppressive rule, and it will remain as long as Allah wills it to remain. Then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be a Khilafah upon the method of Prophethood. Then he (the Prophet) remained silent."
And wherever it is established, it will reach Ash-Sham and settle there. At-Tabarani narrated from Salamah bin Nufayl that he said: The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
عُقْرُ دَارِ الإِسْلامِ بِالشَّامِ
"The heartland of the Abode of Islam is in Ash-Sham."
And it will fight the Jews and remove their entity occupying the Blessed Land and return all of Palestine to the Abode of Islam... and indeed, tomorrow is near for those who wait.
However, the Sunnah of Allah necessitated that angels will not descend from the sky to establish a Khilafah for us to fight our enemy while we sit idly. Rather, He sends His angels as support and glad tidings of His victory to men who believed in their Lord and whom He increased in guidance; Muslim soldiers, patient in war, shielding themselves with their Imam and fighting their enemies from behind him... Then we will be among those entitled to the glad tidings:
نَصْرٌ مِنَ اللهِ وَفَتْحٌ قَرِيبٌ وَبَشِّرِ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ
"Victory from Allah and a near conquest; and give good tidings to the believers." (Quran 61:13)
23rd of Rajab 1446 AH 2025/1/23 CE