Question:
Yesterday, Sunday, 15/01/2012, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative to OPEC, warned the Gulf states against compensating for the supply of Iranian oil to the markets in the event of an embargo imposed on it by the European Union. He added, as reported in the Iranian newspaper Shargh, that the consequences of compensating for his country's prohibited supplies to the market are unpredictable!
On the same day, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ramin Mehmanparast, as reported by the official Iranian news agency, announced that the United States had delivered a letter to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This followed an earlier threat by Iran on 28/12/2011 to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the tightening of international sanctions against it. Iran also announced naval maneuvers in the region and stated that it had successfully conducted tests on launching missiles of various ranges and types.
Is Iran serious about closing the Strait of Hormuz? Is Iran afraid of a serious war against it? If so, from which side? Do current global circumstances allow for such a war?
Answer:
To answer this question, we review the following matters:
1- The Iranian Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, saying: "If sanctions are approved on Iranian oil, not a single drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" (IRNA, 27/12/2011). The Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Hossein Salami, also threatened that Iran would act decisively to defend its vital interests. Iran conducted naval maneuvers on 31/12/2011 in the region to demonstrate its readiness for war if it were imposed upon it. However, the Commander of the Iranian Navy, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, softened the tone of the threats, stating that "closing the strait is very easy for the Iranian armed forces, or as we say in Iran, easier than a drink of water. However, at the present time, we do not need to close it..." (Press TV, 28/12/2011). This implies that Iran will not move to close the Strait of Hormuz currently unless a war is forced upon it and it is attacked, and not merely by the imposition of sanctions.
2- Reports indicate that between 30% and 40% of the global maritime transport of oil passes through this strait, which is 50 km wide. Between 20 and 30 oil tankers pass through it daily, and it is estimated that about 19 million barrels pass through it per day. It has been a strategic location of great importance throughout history and a subject of competition among European colonialist nations. During the era of "Great" Britain, it was considered a main route to India, which was regarded as the jewel in the English crown, and Britain imposed its control over it when it extended its influence over Iran and the rest of the Gulf states. This continued until the turn of the United States in the modern era, which began working since the 1970s to replace Britain. The US considered the strait part of its national security and placed the headquarters of its Fifth Fleet in Bahrain under the cover of a joint defense agreement concluded in 1993. Its warships sail back and forth in the Gulf waters through this strait. It is not easy for Iran to close it except with implicit American approval in the face of Europe. Iran had previously threatened to close it during its war with Saddam's Iraq in the 1980s, but it did not do so. Now, after all those threats of closure, the commander of the Iranian Navy has softened the tone according to his aforementioned statement.
3- Following those Iranian threats, US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland stated: "We've seen a lot of irrational behavior from Iran recently, which makes us believe that it is starting to feel more than ever the brunt of international sanctions and the escalation of pressure on it, which led to increased criticism within Iran. What we can imagine is that international sanctions are starting to produce the desired result and tension is increasing..." (Al Arabiya, 30/12/2011). America wants to prove that sanctions are sufficient regarding Iran's nuclear program to restrain the Jews from carrying out their threats of a military attack on Iran. For several years, the Americans have stood against any strike by the Jewish entity against Iran. The Americans have stated more than once that sanctions are sufficient to deter Iran regarding its nuclear program. Therefore, the US State Department spokesperson said, "The sanctions are beginning to give the desired result." For months, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has been repeating his statements that sanctions are sufficient to deter Iran from proceeding with its nuclear program, and that sanctions are the only option. America has asked the Jewish entity not to take any action against Iran without coordinating with it, in an attempt by America to keep the reins of power in its own hands.
4- It appears that America has recently perceived a serious, premeditated intention by the Jewish entity to direct a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, and that there is serious British movement supporting this entity in launching this strike. This prompted America to move towards tightening sanctions, even reaching a ban on dealing with the Iranian Central Bank. A US official announced on 13/01/2012 that the new US sanctions imposed last month on Iran to force it to abandon its nuclear program aim to paralyze the work of the Iranian Central Bank, making it difficult for this bank to deal with international banks. Through this, America is trying to show that the solution lies in sanctions and their intensification, in order to prevent the Jewish entity from launching such a strike and to prevent the Europeans, led by the British, from playing a role in this issue.
5- There are indicators that Europe supports a military strike against Iran and encourages the Jewish entity to do so, even providing it with what is necessary for this matter and standing behind it in this regard. Two years ago, France launched a satellite over the region to spy on Iran and provides the Jewish entity with images and information about Iranian military sites, facilities, and nuclear activities. Germany provided the Jewish entity with the latest submarines that carry missiles. Britain is coordinating militarily with the Jewish entity on this subject very strongly, and its Defense Secretary Philip Hammond warned "Iran against any potential attempts to close the strait," and its media outlets are always working to escalate the situation and stir up public opinion against Iran. The Guardian reported on 03/11/2011 that "British forces are accelerating preparations for the possibility of a military operation against Iran under the pretext of fears over Iran's nuclear program." The British have intensified their contacts with the Jewish entity in recent months; the American agency (UPI) reported on 02/11/2011 that "the British Chief of Staff, General David Richards, paid a secret three-day visit to Israel, while Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak headed to Britain on the evening of 02/11/2011 at a time of increasing talk about launching an Israeli military attack against Iran." The British Daily Mail said—in a report on its website on 10/11/2011—that British government officials confirmed there is an understanding in the government that Israel will try to target Iranian nuclear facilities sooner rather than later. Israeli media reported in early November 2011 that the Zionist Air Force had conducted an aerial maneuver at a NATO base in Italy, and that this maneuver included all aerial formations that could participate in a future long-range attack.
6- The "Israeli" threat to strike Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated during this month. The American Wall Street Journal reported on 14/01/2012 that Washington fears a possible Israeli military attack against nuclear facilities in Iran, which prompted American officials to intensify messages expressing their rejection of this attack and warning of its consequences to Israeli officials. The newspaper said in a report it provided on the subject that US President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, and other senior US officials have recently addressed a series of secret letters to Israeli leaders to warn them of the dire consequences of a potential attack, and to inform them of the American position that insists on giving more time for the sanctions imposed on Tehran to bear fruit, so that Iran refrains from manufacturing nuclear weapons.
7- America emphasizes that sanctions are what will affect Iran, and that military action is futile, especially since the current year 2012 is the year of the US presidential elections. The state of the Jews and the Europeans want to exploit this election year in America to carry out a military attack against Iran while the current administration headed by Obama is preoccupied with winning a second term. The administration is working to win the votes of the Jews and others, so if such an attack were launched, America would be in an embarrassing position that would force it to support it if it occurred during the election period. Furthermore, things would become complicated for America in the region, which would give the Europeans, especially the veteran English colonialists, an opportunity to intervene and play an influential role in the Gulf region. They would work to destabilize American influence in the region and destabilize the internal situation in Iran, preparing to have some of the influence in Iran that they lost following the Iranian Revolution in 1979 with the fall of their agent, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
8- Thus, American policy focuses on the fact that sanctions serve the purpose, and it tightens them whenever the omens of war—which the state of the Jews is keen on with European support during the current election year—draw near. America may have thwarted the opportunity for them at the end of the past calendar year, as news leaked that the end of last year was an expected date for this attack, as reported on the website al-mashhad.com/News on 10/11/2011, which stated: "An unnamed British Foreign Office official revealed that British ministers had been informed that the Israeli strike could come by Christmas or in early 2012." Nevertheless, it is not ruled out that new attempts will be made by Europe and the Jewish entity to shuffle the cards for the American administration due to the circumstances of the election year. It is expected that America will not allow them to seize this opportunity and will remain watchful, holding the reins of power. Whenever Europe is about to support the Jewish entity in carrying out a military attack on Iran during the election year, thus embarrassing Obama before Jewish voters, Obama tightens the sanctions, explaining to the Jews that this is the effective solution and not a military attack on Iran! He acts in their interest by tightening sanctions to win their votes.
9- As for Iran's statement that the Gulf states will bear responsibility if they compensate for the shortage resulting from European sanctions by not importing Iranian oil, it falls within the scope of statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz to create tension in the oil market. This would cause prices to rise and affect Europe, especially since it is facing an economic crisis, thus discouraging it from continuing to support the Jewish entity in a military action against Iran.
10- Regarding Obama's letter to Iranian officials, although its contents have not been disclosed, it is not ruled out that it is a "warning" request from America to Iran to ease the atmosphere of tension, whether from the side of statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz or the side of threats to the Gulf states regarding the responsibility for compensating for oil supply shortages. This is to reduce provocation that Europe and the Jews might exploit for military action against Iran in this election year. Evidence has appeared in recent days that the United States and Iran have taken some steps to ease the tension between them, as Tehran agreed to receive a delegation of UN nuclear inspectors during this month, while Washington twice during the same month rescued Iranian sailors from accidents they faced in the region (Wall Street Journal, 14/01/2012).
11- It is truly painful that the Gulf region, including its lands, waters, and the Strait of Hormuz, is part of America's security and one of its vital and strategic interests, even though it is a purely Islamic region. Its gulf is Islamic in both its parts, whether called Arabian or Persian; the Gulf of Oman is an Islamic gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz is an Islamic strait. Muslims defended all these areas against European invasions, from the Portuguese to the Dutch, the French, and the English. Finally, the Americans came and are working to tighten their control over these areas and plunder their wealth.
What is even more bitter is that this international conflict finds tools among the rulers in the region who facilitate its goals. Nevertheless, the time will not be long, Allah willing, until this Ummah rises, including the Gulf region, and becomes one Ummah in one state—a Rightly Guided Khilafah (Caliphate) that cuts off the hands of these countries from extending to any part of the lands of the Muslims. Indeed, tomorrow is near for the one who awaits it.
Conclusion:
1- Europe, especially the English, and the Jewish entity want to exploit Obama's election race to direct a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Because it is an election year, this will embarrass Obama if he stands in the way of the military strike, as he needs the votes of the Jews.
2- Iran is important to Obama, and he does not want a military strike against it unless it crosses the red lines that America has set for the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on 08/01/2012. At the same time, the Jewish entity is important to him, and he does not want to lose the votes of the Jews. Therefore, he is working to show that sanctions are the best way to prevent nuclear armament for Iran, which concerns the Jewish entity, and that a military strike will not be useful but will harm the entire region, affecting the interests of America and the West.
Accordingly, whenever military action draws near, Obama diverts attention to tightening sanctions, even extending them to the Iranian Central Bank, focusing on the fact that this is the effective weapon against Iran's nuclear efforts, not a military strike. It is expected that the back-and-forth on this issue will remain at least throughout the American election year: Europe and the Jewish entity focusing on exploiting the opportunity for a military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, and America focusing on preventing that by showing that sanctions and their intensification are the effective solution, and so on.
3- Regarding Obama's letter to Iran, although what was in it has not been revealed, it is not ruled out that it is a "warning" request directed at Iran to ease the tension resulting from its statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz and its threats regarding the Gulf, to remove the justifications for military actions.
4- It is painful that the Western countries conflict over our Islamic region, and that they find tools for themselves in the region who walk with them, instead of us having our own state, the Rightly Guided Khilafah, which cuts off every hand that extends to our pure Islamic lands. Nevertheless, this darkness will not continue, nor will this gloom, for Islam, Allah willing, is coming, and the Khilafah is coming.
وَلَتَعْلَمُنَّ نَبَأَهُ بَعْدَ حِينٍ
"And you will surely know [the truth of] its information after a time." (QS. Sad [38]: 88)