Question:
I am confused by the recent developments in Yemen, particularly the signing of the "Peace and National Partnership Agreement" on 21/09/2014, as if these developments have shuffled the cards... How were the Houthis able to reach Sana'a and take the lead in power and influence there without effective resistance from the authorities? Does this mean that British influence has ended in Yemen, and that America, which supports the Houthis, has become the effective power in Yemen, or is it a division of influence? Please clarify these matters, and may Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following points:
British influence has been established in Yemen in recent decades, particularly since Ali Saleh took power in 1978. He clipped, or rather cut, the wings of American influence in Yemen and pursued its agents and followers. The active political class in Yemen became almost exclusively loyal to the British and their agents. This continued until the events of the "Arab Spring" in 2011 in Yemen, when people rose up against Ali Saleh due to his tyranny and monopoly on power. In their movement, they were influenced by the winds of change in other Arab countries. However, the lack of political awareness among the revolting masses enabled other parties, particularly America and its allies—Iran regionally, and the Houthis and the Southern Movement locally—to exploit the ongoing events. America saw this as a unique opportunity, as for the first time, Saleh's authority was severely shaken, his grip on power weakened, and the institutions of authority were destabilized.
America began moving seriously to establish a solution to the events that suited it through its embassy and envoys, in addition to its local followers. Britain felt that America was serious about this, so it followed its usual method: taking the initiative toward a solution that preserves its influence while accommodating and satisfying America by giving it something that does not cause Britain to lose its influence in Yemen. Thus, it moved its tools in the Gulf states and launched the Gulf Initiative at the beginning of April 2011. This initiative called for Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, with a pledge not to prosecute him, and to hand over his powers to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, who is loyal to Britain. Following this, elections were to be held within two months, and then work would begin on drafting a new constitution. America agreed to the initiative in a step it considered transitional to remove Ali Abdullah Saleh, as it viewed him as the strongman of the British in Yemen. As for Hadi, America saw him as lenient and easier to deal with according to its interests than Ali Saleh. The Yemen News Agency/Reuters reported on 14/08/2013: "Washington finds that Hadi is a partner who can be dealt with more easily than Saleh." Consequently, America saw the possibility of weakening British influence in Yemen after getting rid of the strong British agent, Ali Abdullah Saleh. America considered the initiative a transitional step through which it wanted to twist the arm of the initiative to improve or cancel it via two means: first, by encouraging its followers, especially the Houthis, to reject the initiative and disrupt it; and second, by sending its man, Jamal Benomar, as a UN envoy—or rather, an American envoy—to manage the affairs of the initiative in a way that achieves America's interests completely or in a partial, effective way.
Thus, the initiative became like a ball being kicked around. On one hand, Britain and its followers in the Gulf held the strings of the solution through the Gulf Initiative and created a public opinion that forced America to accept it. On the other hand, America saw it as a step through which it gained the removal of Ali Saleh, the firm British agent, as his successor Hadi—though a follower of the British—is less formidable and more flexible. This enables America to change the terms of the initiative, obstruct its implementation, or cancel it through the force of the Houthis and the Southern Movement, and through negotiations via one of its men, "Jamal Benomar." In other words, Britain saw the initiative as a way to rescue and maintain its influence, as Hadi is one of its men and the political medium is its creation, while simultaneously satisfying America in hopes of easing its pressure. America agreed to it transitionally to move through it toward having actual influence in Yemen.
Matters proceeded in this direction, and the Gulf Initiative was followed by the National Dialogue Conference, which began its first sessions on 18/03/2013 and continued until 25/01/2014. This resulted in a document transforming Yemen into a federal system divided into six regions. However, the official spokesperson for the Houthi movement, Mohammed Abdulsalam, announced: "We did not sign this document and we consider it to represent a solution neither for the Southern issue nor for the pending national issues; the division was made according to political whims." (Al-Alam website, 10/02/2014). Thus, by its agents' rejection of the method of division rather than division itself, America prepared for the next step to extend the influence of its agents. On one hand, it consolidated the principle of division, and on the other, the Houthis and their followers rejected the initiative until its terms matched their desires—specifically, re-dividing to find an outlet for them to the sea—otherwise, they would work to cancel it. As a prelude to this, America exploited the government's decision to raise fuel prices, which came into effect on July 30, 2014. It moved the Houthis and the Southern Movement in heated resistance against Hadi's government. America supported this movement against Hadi politically and through security: Politically, America does not classify the Houthis as terrorists like Al-Qaeda; rather, it considers them a political movement. The US Ambassador Matthew Tueller said in his press conference on 18/09/2014: "We differentiate between those groups that participated in the political process. The Houthi movement participated in the National Dialogue Conference, which resulted in many positive outcomes, and they have political positions and legitimate ambitions... Therefore, we support the Houthi and his movement in carrying out the same practices carried out by political groups and parties." The US Ambassador also stated that the embassy follows these dialogues "through our conversations with some participants in them. We know that the dialogues focus on the demands of the Houthis, and they perceive that they have a role in the government; these are legitimate issues for any party that participated in the dialogue to discuss." He said that the success of the negotiations would represent a step in the right direction, "especially if these negotiations stabilize the security situation inside Sana'a and the surrounding areas." (Muraqebon Press).
As for security, when the Houthis entered Sana'a, the army and police resisted them, and seven Houthis were killed on 09/09/2014. The scales almost tipped in Hadi's favor, but America rushed to send Benomar, the UN envoy (or the American envoy in reality), who pressured Hadi and diluted the matter by calling for negotiations. This gave the green light to the Houthis to escalate their movement during the atmosphere of negotiations, supported by American pressure through Benomar on Hadi and the army. Furthermore, the US Ambassador had visited the Yemeni Defense Minister before that on 11/09/2014. US Ambassador Matthew Tueller confirmed in Sana'a that Yemen's security and stability matter to the region and the world due to Yemen's geopolitical position. During the meeting with Defense Minister Major General Mohammed Nasir Ahmed, the US Ambassador renewed his government's position supporting the security, stability, and unity of Yemen. The meeting covered the nature of the security situation in Yemen and the means to ensure a safe exit from the current crises. (Al-Mashhad Al-Yemeni, 11/09/2014). It is likely that this visit to the Defense Minister was to prevent the army from standing in the face of the Houthis, and this is what the events revealed. Therefore, some soldiers recently demonstrated on 28/09/2014 against Defense Minister Mohammed Nasir, calling for his dismissal and trial for the army's failure to perform its duties.
Britain realized that America was serious about using force to achieve significant gains in the governance of Yemen, and that the Houthis had an influential force of weapons and equipment supplied through Iran. Britain's realization of this made it resist on two tracks: First, Hadi exerts his utmost effort to use his position as president to prevent the Houthis from gaining effective power. Second, involving Ali Saleh as a partner to the Houthis as if he opposes Hadi's rule; some of his supporters joined the Houthis while carrying the banner of the General People's Congress (the party of the former Yemeni president). When the British Ambassador was asked if she communicates with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, she said: "I do not have a direct relationship with Ali Abdullah Saleh, but I have contact with the General People's Congress party, including parties close to him." (27/09/2014, Asharq Al-Awsat). From this, it is understood that Britain is the one who suggested to its agent Ali Saleh that he also cooperate with the Houthis, as the British Ambassador admitted her contact with Ali Saleh's party, which he manages and controls without rival or opponent. Similarly, the Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said: "We consider that Saleh has had no role since the February 2011 revolution and before that, and we hope the outcomes of the Dialogue Conference will address him." (23/09/2014, Al-Siyassa Al-Kuwaitiya). This shows the Houthis' positive view of Ali Saleh as well, confirming that the British suggested to Ali Saleh and their ruling party, the General People's Congress led by Ali Saleh, to take this position and cooperate with the Houthis during their entry into the capital. Even Mohsen al-Ahmar, President Hadi's advisor for defense and security affairs—who initially resisted the Houthis, as mentioned by the Houthi spokesperson—stopped resisting them, left the country, and sought refuge with the Saudi regime. After appearing in Saudi Arabia and thanking it for protecting him, he mentioned the reason for his departure: "We decided, after consultation with His Excellency President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, to avoid civil war at any cost." (26/09/2014, Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed). Thus, Britain pushes some of its men to participate with the Houthi and removes some of its men who resisted the Houthi.
These measures by Britain to push Ali Saleh toward the Houthis are so that if Hadi fails to use his position as president to prevent America and its followers from actually reaching power, Ali Saleh would be an active partner with the Houthis. Thus, British influence remains present in Yemen, especially since the Houthis lack the popular support that would allow them to be sole rulers of Yemen.
In this atmosphere—the atmosphere of Houthi force supported by America politically and through security, and the atmosphere of political cunning and British maneuvering—the Houthis stormed Sana'a. When the army tried to resist them, Jamal Benomar intervened under the pretext of negotiation and prevented that. The Houthis exploited this atmosphere for their benefit and seized government buildings, including the Prime Minister's building, the Army Command Center, and the Television Complex. They attacked some buildings and looted their contents, and the entire capital, or most of it, fell into their grip. In this atmosphere as well, Jamal Benomar worked through various means of pressure to conclude the Peace and National Partnership Agreement. It was clear that American influence had entered Yemen in an obvious manner. The agreement included some gains for the Houthis; for example, the terms included "the appointment of new political advisors to the President of the Republic from the Southern Movement and the Houthis," "the political advisors to the President of the Republic set the criteria for candidates for positions in the new government," "the President of the Republic selects the Ministers of Defense, Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Interior provided they meet the above criteria and do not belong or hold loyalty to any political party," and "the Prime Minister shall be neutral without any partisan affiliation." The Houthis considered that this agreement had canceled the Gulf Initiative; the Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam stated that the Gulf Initiative had ended irrevocably, noting that the Peace and Partnership Agreement signed at the Presidential Palace last Sunday, 21/09/2014, documents a political contract with a new political partnership based on the outcomes of the Dialogue Conference and in response to popular demands. (Nabaa Online, 25/09/2014).
Nonetheless, official authority remained in Britain's hands through President Hadi and some important ministries. As we said earlier, Britain created an entry point for Ali Saleh with the Houthis as a fallback for its influence if Hadi could not use his presidential authority to limit the effective interventions of the Houthis in governance. There is a security annex to the agreement that the Houthis initially refused to sign, but they signed it about a week later when Hadi delayed choosing a Prime Minister due to the Houthis' refusal to sign the security annex. That is, the President this time used his presidential authority by postponing the naming of the Prime Minister because of the Houthis' refusal to sign the security annex, so they signed it, although they have not yet implemented it practically! They only signed it after the delay in naming the Prime Minister embarrassed them. Jamal Benomar saw that the Houthis should sign the agreement and that the push and pull would be over its implementation, not its signing! Thus, Jamal Benomar stated that the Houthi group had signed the security annex to the Peace and Partnership Agreement a week after refusing to sign it, and the Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam confirmed this, saying: "The security annex was signed after making simple modifications." (27/09/2014, Khabar News Agency). It seems Iran also played a role, as the signing came two days after the Yemeni authorities released two Revolutionary Guard experts accused of spying and training militants, in addition to releasing eight others convicted of smuggling weapons from Iran to the Houthis! Britain emphasized the necessity of implementation and not just signing; this position was expressed by the British Ambassador to Yemen, Jane Marriott, who "demanded the Houthis respect what they signed by withdrawing their forces from the streets of Sana'a and from the surrounding camps." She said: "We want to see them leave (Sana'a) sooner rather than later, and leave security to the Yemeni security forces, while we accept that the Houthis and others have a legitimate role to play in Yemen. They must withdraw from the streets of Sana'a upon the appointment of the new Prime Minister, and we will look closely at that with the expectation that the Houthis will do so; if they do not, we will consider it a breach of the agreement." (27/09/2014, Asharq Al-Awsat).
Hadi revealed much of the pressure that was placed on him. In his speech before officials from among the heads, ministers, and deputies of his regime on 23/09/2014—two days after signing the agreement—as reported by the Yemeni News Agency Saba: "I address you in this difficult moment of our Yemeni history, fully aware of the difficulty of the past days, and I realize that you all feel shocked by what happened and by the surrender of some state institutions and army units in the image we witnessed. But you must also know that the conspiracy was beyond imagination, and that we were stabbed and betrayed." He said: "It is a conspiracy that exceeded the borders of the homeland, in which many forces of those with lost interests and opportunists whom we see in every tragedy eating from the liver of this homeland allied." (23/09/2014, Saba). Hadi had previously attacked Iran, as reported in (Al-Asriya Net on September 15, 2014), saying: "We have repeatedly warned against any interference in Yemen's internal affairs, but what is happening are perhaps messages for the sake of imposing regional hegemony and exposing Yemen to great dangers, and there is evidence proving Iran's interference in Yemen's affairs."
America blessed the agreement, which indicates its support for everything that happened and that it wanted the Houthis to enter the capital and for the agreement to take place with them under the pressure of weapons, accepting them as a significant political component. Lisa Monaco, the US President's Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Advisor, said in a phone call from the White House with Yemeni President Hadi: "This achievement (signing the agreement) will represent the basic pillar built on the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference." She said: "The United States is following the events closely step by step." (24/09/2014, Yemen Street via Al-Motamar Net). Thus, everything that happened was done under pressure from America to dictate to the regime the recognition of the Iranian-backed Houthi component as a part of the political structure in Yemen despite its armament, so that America can work to harness it to implement its plans there, just as it did in Lebanon with the armed political parties loyal to Iran.
There is another matter America seeks in Yemen that makes it interested in having Yemen under its thumb, not only for its strategic location but because of published reports indicating that Yemen sits on enormous oil and gas wealth. Sky News, the American television station, revealed that the largest oil source in the world reaching an underground oil reserve is in Yemen, part of which extends into Saudi Arabia at a depth of 1,800 meters, but the massive reserve is under Yemeni soil... (Yemen Al-Saeed website, 08/01/2013). Although the Yemeni Ministry of Oil denied the Sky News report as stated on the (Yemeni Ministry of Oil and Minerals website, 13/01/2013), the Sky News report remains a matter of interest, especially for colonialist countries like America. Therefore, the American Ambassador's relations with the Yemeni Ministry of Oil are warm! Saba Net (15/09/2014) reported on the American Ambassador's meeting with the Oil Minister on 15/09/2014: "The American Ambassador pointed to the desire of many American companies to meet with specialists in the Ministry of Oil and Minerals on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference to be held in November 2014... pointing to indicators of expanding investment in the petroleum sector in Yemen, especially since many areas are still under exploration." All of this increases America's interest in Yemen.
Conclusion:
a. The conflict in Yemen is raging between two camps: America and its followers and agents, and Britain and its followers and agents. Each side uses its own means and styles. America follows the logic of the power of the Houthis, the Southern Movement, and Iran, in addition to the method of negotiation to achieve gains through Jamal Benomar. Britain follows the logic of political cunning by Hadi exploiting his presidential authority and maneuvering with America to avoid its pressure without enabling it to hold sensitive positions in governance, and then by pushing Ali Saleh and his men with the Houthis so that if Hadi fails and the Houthi side prevails, Britain would have a share—and what a share—in governance through Ali Saleh and his men.
b. The Houthis do not have sufficient popular support to rule Yemen. As long as this is the case, the element of force is not enough to seize power in Yemen and sustain it, especially since the political class is not with them, and creating a new political class is difficult under current circumstances. As for Hadi and his group, although they have a political medium, their prestige has been shaken by recent developments, and this will affect the decline of British influence from its complete monopoly as it was in Yemen over the past decades. Therefore, it is not easy for Britain and its agents to hold power alone as before and for this rule to continue.
c. This means that the expected solution in Yemen is a middle-ground solution between America and Britain in the capitalist manner, so power becomes shared between the parties. A middle-ground solution usually does not last for them except as a "warrior's rest" until America or Britain can settle the matter in its favor. This means that events in Yemen will continue to fluctuate, calming down at times and intensifying at others according to the balance of political and military forces between the competitors.
d. Based on the above, it can be concluded that matters in Yemen are escalating without stabilizing decisively except in two cases: First, if America or Britain is able to settle matters in its favor and thus dominate effective influence in Yemen—which is not easy as we explained. Second, if Allah honors this Ummah with the Khilafah (Caliphate), it will trample the influence of the colonialist disbelievers, uproot them from the land, and end their evils among the people. Then disbelief and its people will be humiliated, while Islam and its people will be honored, and the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah:
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Surah Ar-Rum 30:4-5)
It is only fitting for the people of Yemen, the people of faith and wisdom, to establish this matter and succeed in both worlds, and Allah protects the righteous.