Question:
Tensions are escalating between America and North Korea, with America conducting massive military drills in South Korea. Amidst this tension, America has sent a large group of warships, including an aircraft carrier, while North Korea warns of nuclear war. The BBC reported on 15/04/2017: "North Korea has warned the United States not to take any provocative actions in the region, saying it is 'ready to respond with nuclear attacks'." What is the reality of this tension? Is it possible for a nuclear war to break out between them? Furthermore, what is China's position regarding the tension on its borders, especially since North Korea is considered within its sphere of influence?
Answer:
Yes, tension began to escalate significantly between North Korea and America after President Trump took office. North Korea's missile tests have become occasions for American threats against North Korea. It was notable that the escalation took a sharper turn after the Trump administration took power, as if this administration arrived with the elimination of the North Korean "threat" to its interests and allies in Asia as its top priority. Indicators of this include:
The issue of North Korea in American strategy is not merely a matter of a hostile military force that has a socialist system and does not submit to the American global order. North Korea's small size and power do not place it at the top of American priorities except as part of a whole called China. America views the rising growth of China with great seriousness and is studying all options to contain Chinese power. One of these options is to stir up tension on China's borders, including North Korea. Confirming this is that America, during the Obama era, was active in building alliances around China. Its relations significantly increased with India, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, in addition to South Korea. It wanted these alliances to be a belt around China, limiting the momentum of Chinese policy in investing in the South China Sea and strengthening its major trade routes with the world. America’s heightening of tension with North Korea was one of the many tensions it stirs around China, such as the border dispute between China and India, and island issues between China on one side and Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia on the other. For the sake of containing China, America has lifted many restrictions on the Japanese military to stand in the face of China. Today, when America puts this "threat" at the top of its priorities, it is because it is part of its strategy against China... American pressure on North Korea is not new, even if it has now taken a hotter turn... This strategy began with the method of pressuring negotiations. America's talks with North Korea yielded the suspension of Pyongyang’s nuclear program in 1994, and in 2008, the six-party talks resulted in the closure of the Yongbyon reactor. In 2012, it resulted in North Korea suspending its nuclear program and allowing inspectors to enter. Each time, North Korea returned to activating its nuclear program because America failed to fulfill its obligations to provide light-water reactors as alternatives or to supply fuel, or because of the humiliation regarding the aid provided to it. It was America that was pushing Pyongyang back to the square of tension... Then, in 2012, America adopted a new method by which it moves 60% of its naval power to the Far East. It does this not against small North Korea, but to contain Chinese power, and today's tension is merely a continuation of this containment.
Secretary of State Tillerson announced that the American policy of "strategic patience" toward North Korea has ended. (Tillerson said during a press conference with his South Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se in Seoul: "Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are looking at a new range of security and diplomatic measures. All options are on the table...") (Reuters, 17/03/2017). This is also reinforced by the fact that America has felt some reassurance regarding Syria after Turkey proved its ability to force the rebels to surrender the city of Aleppo. This means that the decrease in the intensity of the danger of the Syrian revolution—as America sees it—enables it to move and focus on North Korea. Consequently, the North Korean issue became the number one issue on President Trump's table, after the Syrian issue had vied for priority in the Obama administration. America had not yet finished preparing its plans for China’s surroundings, so it was studying its options and readying its alliances. Therefore, tension with North Korea became the loud tone in Washington, and America’s announcement of the end of the strategic patience policy was an indicator of Washington's potential inclination toward a military solution with North Korea. As a result, America announced its response to North Korea's military tests with highly provocative steps and statements, including:
a. US Secretary of State Tillerson’s threat to North Korea with nuclear weapons: (US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson threatened North Korea with the use of "nuclear deterrence" to defend South Korea and Japan, in the fiercest response to Pyongyang's latest missile test. Tillerson issued a joint statement with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, confirming that the United States is "determined" to defend Tokyo and Seoul even using "nuclear deterrence"...) (Russian Sputnik agency, 17/02/2017).
b. America's threat to provide South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons: (US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced earlier today that he does not rule out a solution that could lead to the appearance of nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan. The Secretary did not specify whether he was talking about deploying American nuclear weapons in those areas, or if these weapons would be owned by South Korea and Japan...) (Russian Sputnik agency, 18/03/2017).
c. In language full of provocation, Trump reminded North Korea of the variety of American weapons that could strike it: (The US President also clarified that he contacted Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday and asked him, in a one-hour call, to let North Korean leader Kim Jong-un know that the United States does not only have aircraft carriers but also nuclear submarines. He said firmly: "North Korea cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. They do not yet have the means to deliver nuclear weapons, but they will have them...") (Russia Today, 14/03/2017, quoting the American Wall Street Journal).
d. Due to the recent escalation of tension between the United States and North Korea after Pyongyang announced a new missile test and fears of it preparing for a sixth nuclear test, the United States sent a large American force of destroyers and an aircraft carrier near North Korea. (A spokesperson for the US Pacific Command confirmed that the American aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and its strike group, in addition to two missile-launching destroyers and a missile-launching cruiser, headed toward the Korean Peninsula after they were supposed to stop in Australia, and that they were deployed "as a precautionary measure." The spokesperson added that the primary threat in the region comes from North Korea due to its missile program...) (France24, 09/04/2017). US Vice President Mike Pence confirmed this on Saturday, 22/04/2017, telling reporters in Sydney: ("The aircraft carrier will be in the Sea of Japan in a matter of days, before the end of this month," with two destroyers and a missile cruiser. He continued, "The North Korean regime should not make a mistake, for the United States has the resources, personnel, and presence in this region of the world to allow us to maintain our interests and the security of those interests and our allies." Pence then threatened an "overwhelming and effective response" to any attack North Korea might launch, stressing that this country poses "the most serious threat to peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region.") (Agence France-Presse (AFP), 22/04/2017).
e. The large military exercises being conducted by the US military in South Korea: (South Korean and US forces began large-scale military exercises on Wednesday, which are held annually to test their defensive readiness in the face of North Korean threats... The drills come amid rising tension following the latest ballistic missile test conducted by North Korea on February 12...) (Reuters, 01/03/2017). It should be noted that the US military possesses large military bases in South Korea where 28,500 American soldiers are stationed, part of a military system in the China basin countries and Pacific islands comprising more than a quarter of a million soldiers, not to mention the naval power roaming the seas.
Thus, Trump threatens as if war is at the door... However, there are indicators showing that America does not want war now, including:
a. America threatened, vowed, and showed its readiness for a strong response to any new test by North Korea. North Korea responded with a massive military parade on 15/04/2017 and scenes broadcast by Pyongyang television showing North Korea's capabilities to launch ballistic missiles from submarines and the possibility of some of its missiles being intercontinental, meaning they could reach American soil. At that point, these facts of power in North Korea became a dilemma for America. America wants to plan for a war without suffering significant harm, or without the war reaching its own lands. When North Korea revealed the reality of its power, American threats faced a major credibility crisis. Pyongyang did not stop at what it highlighted in the military parade and television broadcast—specifically the ability of its submarines to carry and launch ballistic missiles—but followed that with a missile test on 16/04/2017, seemingly for an intercontinental missile. Although it failed, it increased its challenge to America. It became clear that American threats were out of place and that America is currently unable to implement them, meaning America is not yet ready for war...
b. So far, the THAAD missile defense system has not been deployed in South Korea, although preparations are underway even though the agreement for it was reached about a year ago. (The US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Susan Thornton, confirmed that the THAAD missile defense system is being deployed in South Korea according to the set plan. It is noteworthy that the American missile systems were scheduled to be deployed in South Korea in June or July of this year, but the United States and South Korea apparently decided to speed up the process against the backdrop of North Korea's missile tests. It is mentioned that the agreement between Washington and Seoul to deploy THAAD missile systems in South Korea was reached in July 2016... Plans to deploy THAAD missiles in the Korean Peninsula raise concerns for Russia and China, while Japan considered that it would enhance the security of the region...) (Russian Sputnik agency, 17/04/2017).
c. It is unlikely that America will engage in a war against North Korea before the completion of the hundred days agreed upon with the Chinese President to achieve a major trade agreement reviewing the overall trade relations between the two countries. America wants to show some flexibility regarding trade with China—contrary to what President Trump promised during his election campaign to impose 45% taxes on Chinese goods—meaning it is trying to entice China and push it to exert great pressure on Pyongyang, which would serve as a justification for China to abandon it and leave it alone in the face of America and its allies. Through this, America achieves two goals:
First: If this succeeds, it diminishes China's status by showing its abandonment of its allies. In the context of diminishing China's status as well, President Trump’s instructions to authorize the missile strike on Syria on 07/04/2017 were timed by America to occur during a dinner break between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida, which some considered an insult to China. Al-Arabiya Net reported on 08/04/2017: (The site quoted retired General Jack Keane, former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army, quoting Fox News as saying in comment on Trump's action: "He does what he says... He is sending a message to the Chinese") meaning regarding his determination to launch war against North Korea, and that China must pressure North Korea and abandon it; if it did, leniency with it in the trade agreement would be possible...
Second: America wants, by attempting to show the Chinese card against North Korea through increased American statements about the agreement between the two countries regarding the dangerous situation in North Korea, to accelerate the achievement of American-Russian reconciliation. America is turning the Korean card into a playground for competition between Russia and China! The increase in these statements was notable... US Vice President Mike Pence said in a press conference with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull: ("We are encouraged by the steps China has taken so far"... Trump praised Chinese efforts last week to curb the North Korean threat after North Korean media warned the United States of a massive preemptive strike...) (Al-Hayat Newspaper - Sydney Reuters, 22/04/2017).
d. America wants to face North Korea from a position of strength that can break Pyongyang's resolve. This position consists of placing Russia militarily alongside America against Pyongyang, and perhaps using it as a spearhead as in Syria, as this would greatly confuse North Korea's calculations, which thinks Russia is a peer to America. This old-new Kissinger plan, around which American sanctions on Russia from the Obama administration and enticements for Russia from the Trump administration centered, was delayed in its completion by America. The most important issue, the alliance against North Korea, was on Secretary of State Tillerson's agenda in Moscow on 11/04/2017, which was later confirmed by sources to Russia Today on 16/04/2017, quoting the Russian Kommersant newspaper: ("As for the United States, according to the results of the Moscow talks, it can consider the discussion of the Korean problem a success for it. According to the newspaper's sources, this issue was one of the priorities of Tillerson's visit to Moscow.") If the Korean war breaks out before the American-Russian agreement, America could incur significant losses. America also wants to make China affected by the escalation of the threat so that it intervenes against North Korea for fear of a nuclear war occurring...
For all these reasons, America is not ready for war in North Korea now and has no other suitable solutions. It is waiting for China to apply pressure and is trying to speed this up, so its statements are increasing that America is ready to solve the problem alone, meaning without China, as if it is threatening China that it must comply with America and engage in pressuring Pyongyang to strip it of its nuclear weapons. America is also waiting for its agreement with Russia to involve it in solving the Korean dilemma. Faced with these incomplete conditions for war, the United States has begun to backtrack on its threats, even though North Korea has not backtracked on its missile and nuclear tests and continues to threaten a comprehensive war reaching American territory and shows no fear of nuclear war. Evidence of America softening its tone is found in recent statements: (Associated Press quoted an American military source who requested anonymity as saying that Washington currently has no real intention to strike North Korea, even if the latter continues its nuclear and missile tests. The source added that Washington's plans will not change unless Pyongyang targets South Korea, Japan, or the United States, and that the relevant American leadership has unanimously decided at present to be deliberate and avoid escalation...) (Russia Today, 15/04/2017). America worked to further ease the tension it created through its recklessness, as (Acting US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Susan Thornton, announced that her country does not seek conflict with North Korea or regime change. Thornton said in a press conference: "The United States has clearly stated that it wants to solve this problem with North Korea through peaceful denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, and we are certainly not focused on conflict or regime change") (Russia Today, 17/04/2017). US Vice President Mike Pence considered (that it is still possible to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula peacefully, thanks to Washington's new engagement with Beijing, despite growing concerns of North Korea conducting a new nuclear test soon. Pence added: "We truly believe that if China and allied countries in the region exercise this pressure, there is a chance to achieve the historic goal of making the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons by peaceful means...") (Al-Hayat Newspaper - Sydney Reuters, 22/04/2017).
This is the reality of the situation and the tension in the Korean Peninsula resulting from American planning and recklessness. These were its parties, and this is the general line... Nevertheless, the situation is liable to ignite at any moment. Brandishing war and perhaps waging it remains pending the completion of its conditions, especially the anticipated agreement between America and Russia. If they agree, the possibilities of escalation will increase. If their agreement is delayed for long or is not concluded at all, the situation in the Korean Peninsula will remain in a state of moderate tension with the aim of continuing pressure on Pyongyang to denuclearize... As for the American administration, if it acts recklessly in its dealing with North Korea, its predicament there will be terrible... This administration does not possess enough political savvy to implement sophisticated strategies. (Former US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned against Washington taking a preemptive strike against North Korea, noting that any step in this direction would ignite a nuclear war claiming millions of lives, "and this is the" reason that prevented previous US presidents from pulling the trigger and striking North Korea. He added: "The American administration must be careful in its choice of words and avoid escalation, and must exercise caution and not take any hasty decisions," pointing to "the necessity of being deliberate while waiting for what China will be able to achieve toward de-escalation, especially since Washington has recently given it a chance to intervene in hopes of influence...") (Russia Today, 15/04/2017).
As for the reality of China's position, it is fully aware that it is the indirect target of America's sparking of tension, let alone war. Therefore, it does everything in its power to defuse the situation, calling for a peaceful settlement of the dispute, rejecting military solutions, and openly rejecting the militarization of the Korean Peninsula. This includes its categorical rejection of the installation of the American THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. (The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed Beijing's opposition to the deployment of the THAAD system, while at the same time demanding that North Korea and its neighboring countries refrain from committing any provocative acts...) (Al Jazeera Net, 17/04/2017). However, it anticipates the worst and is also preparing for the possibility of war, warning against it. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, "If war breaks out, there will be no winner" (BBC, 15/04/2017). As for Chinese military readiness, Russia Today reported on 14/04/2017: (The American United Press International agency revealed that the Chinese armed forces received direct orders from the General Command of the Army to maintain a state of high alert in 5 military regions. The agency reported, based on the non-governmental Center for Human Rights and Democracy in Hong Kong, that artillery brigades in the military regions of Shandong, Zhejiang, and Yunnan were ordered to move and position themselves on the border strip with North Korea. According to the center, about 25,000 soldiers from the 47th Army stationed in the west of the country were ordered to prepare to move with their military vehicles long distances toward a military base located near the North Korean border. A Japanese news agency also reported that the underlying reason for moving Chinese forces toward the North Korean border is Beijing's concern about the possibility of Washington conducting a preemptive strike on Pyongyang similar to the scenario of the American missile attack on the Shayrat military base in Syria).
This is what we weigh in this matter according to the analysis of current facts, at least for the foreseeable future. We say this because the world is controlled by beasts in human clothing, for whom the blood of people has no weight... If their bloody interests require it, they hasten to shed rivers of blood with their nuclear and non-nuclear weapons, as they have done and continue to do... The world will not feel security and peace unless Capitalism and other man-made systems disappear and no longer control the world, and subsequently the system of truth and justice, the Khilafah Rashidah—the system of the Lord of the Worlds—becomes dominant in this world, spreading goodness, prosperity, and tranquility. For the Creator is the One who knows what is best for His creatures:
أَلَا يَعْلَمُ مَنْ خَلَقَ وَهُوَ اللَّطِيفُ الْخَبِيرُ
"Does He who created not know, while He is the Subtle, the Acquainted?" (Surah Al-Mulk [67]: 14)
26th of Rajab 1438 AH Corresponding to 23/04/2017 CE