Question:
(The UN Security Council failed on Friday to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in the Tigray region of Ethiopia... France 24 / AFP 20/11/2021). About a year ago, the Ethiopian army managed to eliminate the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebellion and impose its full control over the region. Then, the TPLF returned with force, established its control over the region, and began expanding outside of it, threatening to reach the capital, Addis Ababa. Are these events local and the result of an internal nationalist conflict, or are they fueled by international conflict?
Answer:
To clarify the answer, it is necessary to study the international and local nationalist perspectives of the conflict in Ethiopia and their impact on events:
First: International Perspectives:
Internationally, Ethiopia was under direct Italian occupation until it was expelled with the help of the British in 1941. With the reinstatement of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1941, Ethiopia came under British influence. When America, through socialist-leftist calls, managed to overthrow British influence via the 1974 leftist officers' coup, Ethiopia came under American influence. After a struggle between the coup officers, rule in Ethiopia stabilized in 1977 under the leadership of Officer Mengistu Haile Mariam, and many avenues for the return of British influence were closed. Rule in Ethiopia has remained subordinate to America until now, despite the change of rulers.
The Tigray region in Ethiopia is considered a landlocked area, surrounded by Eritrea and Sudan to the north and west, and by the rest of the Ethiopian states belonging to the government on the other sides. Therefore, providing any significant military support to the rebels in this region can only be through American agents, whether within Ethiopia itself or via Sudan or Eritrea. This means that European countries, even if they possessed the political will, are unable to provide significant military support to the rebel region. Furthermore, the leaders of the TPLF, who oppose the central government in Addis Ababa, are not far from a direct relationship with America. Excluding some European political support for the rebel region and some European statements critical of the Ethiopian army's control over the region in 2020, the conflict between the central government and the TPLF is devoid of any significant European dimension.
As for the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has brought Ethiopia to the regional and international stage in recent years, it is a matter concerning Egypt and Sudan. Their rulers are American agents, and the fact that Abdalla Hamdok, the deposed Prime Minister of Sudan, is considered an agent of the British and Europeans does not change this; the actual centers of power in Sudan remain in the hands of America. This means that the new agents of the British and Europeans in Sudan are unable to intervene in the Ethiopian Tigray region for the benefit of the British and Europeans, as they are struggling in the hope of retaining some share in the rule of Sudan. As for the Jewish entity, it incites the Ethiopian government from behind the scenes to continue building and operating the dam to create points of weakness and conflicts for Egypt to be preoccupied with. This also cannot be carried out by the Jewish entity to the point of exceeding American policy; meaning that the conflict over the dam issue is largely controlled by America and managed according to its interests.
Second: Local Nationalist Perspectives:
Ethiopia is considered a backward country intellectually and in other aspects. Despite the rule of leftist officers from 1974 to 1991, no ideology was spread in Ethiopia despite the clamor for socialism. The situation of these socialists, who were American agents, was similar to that of Abdel Nasser in Egypt. Although official estimates give the majority to Christians, unofficial statistics estimate the percentage of Muslims in Ethiopia at about 60% (Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, 15/04/2015). Due to international trends to give Ethiopia a Christian character, the influence of Islam in that country is very slight and remains beneath the surface; meaning the country is devoid of any thought that strengthens unity among its peoples.
Due to the absence of effective thought, tribal asabiyyah (partisanship) and nationalist outlooks remain dominant over all aspects of political life, including the state, parties, formations, entities, and alliances. Thus, tribal asabiyyah and nationalist outlooks are the wide gate for political influence in Ethiopia, through which tribal conflicts, nationalist wars, and border disputes between regions and states enter. According to the nationalist outlook, the Oromia region, which hosts the capital Addis Ababa, is the home of the largest Ethiopian ethnic group, the "Oromo," who make up about 40% of Ethiopia's population. Then comes the Amhara region and ethnic group at 20%, followed by the Somali ethnic group in the Ogaden region at 6%, then the Tigray region and its namesake ethnic group at 5%, in addition to dozens of other smaller ethnic groups.
In addition to border disputes, the person of the ruler is seen as the head of nationalist hegemony in the country. For example, the British agent Emperor Haile Selassie and the American agent Mengistu Haile Mariam were from the Amhara ethnic group. During their long rule, Amhara culture was imposed on the country, and Amharic was imposed as the official language of the state, even though Addis Ababa itself is located in Oromia. The Oromia ethnic group, with a Muslim majority, has complained of marginalization throughout the modern history of Ethiopia. Due to nationalist differences and the Christian view of Ethiopia, the Tigray ethnic group controlled the government since 1991 when Meles Zenawi ruled Ethiopia until his death in 2012, despite representing a nationalist minority. Tigray control over the government continued after the appointment of Zenawi's deputy, Hailemariam Desalegn, as Prime Minister, despite him being from another small ethnic group, as the Tigray continued to control the state's joints in the army and security apparatus. After widespread protests from the Oromo ethnic group around Addis Ababa, which broke out in 2015 and continued until Desalegn's resignation in 2018, Abiy Ahmed was appointed as the first Prime Minister of modern Ethiopia from the Oromo ethnic group.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began removing the Tigray from the state's joints. In June 2018, he dismissed the Chief of Staff of the Army and the Director of the National Intelligence and Security Service, both of whom were Tigrayan. The TPLF viewed this as nationalist targeting, especially since the Tigray had held these vital positions since 1991. However, the strange thing is that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not work for the benefit of his historically marginalized ethnic group, the "Oromo." He became allied with the Amhara ethnic group. Perhaps the fact that he is an Oromo from a Muslim father and a Christian Amhara mother, and married to a Christian Amhara woman, formed within him a nationalist reality that leans toward the Amhara. Therefore, his Oromo ethnic group quickly felt this trend and allied against him with the TPLF.
Third: By examining these international and local perspectives, we find that nationalist and ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia are the primary driver of local events, while the major influential powers exploit and direct them according to their policies and interests. This is how Ethiopian conflicts have been throughout modern history. If we look back years, we find that the emergence of the Tigray ethnic group dates back to the founding of the TPLF in 1975. After about 15 years, the leader of the TPLF, Meles Zenawi, took full power in Ethiopia in 1991. He then began making constitutional amendments to guarantee the Tigray's right to secede from Ethiopia if the tide turned against them in Addis Ababa. Thus was Article (39) of the 1995 Ethiopian Constitution, which grants any of the peoples of Ethiopia the right to self-determination and unconditional secession. However, the Tigray did not need this article of the constitution as long as they dominated the state—a dominance that was ended by Abiy Ahmed's seizure of power in Addis Ababa. When Abiy Ahmed's government postponed the parliamentary elections scheduled for August 2020 on the pretext of the spread of the Corona virus, the TPLF rejected this postponement and conducted elections in Tigray unilaterally. The Tigray region appeared in the state of a rebel putting itself on the track of secession from the state. Due to the secessionist tendencies of the TPLF, its seizure of central Ethiopian army camps in the region, and the central government's rejection of the unilateral elections, war broke out between the rebel region and the central government on 04/11/2020. Within a short period, the Ethiopian army managed to control the entire region and its capital, Mekelle, with the help of the Eritrean army, and the TPLF moved to the mountains.
Fourth: However, the central government in Addis Ababa began to retreat months later in an unexpected manner. It started with the announcement of Eritrea's withdrawal, after Addis Ababa had previously denied the presence of the Eritrean army in Tigray (Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Friday that Eritrean forces would withdraw from the Tigray region in the north of his country. France 24, 26/03/2021). Then, the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army itself from the region was announced (Al-Masry Al-Youm reported on 30/06/2021 that the Ethiopian Foreign Minister announced the government's withdrawal from Tigray, stressing it was a political decision, adding: "We are no longer responsible for what happens in Tigray"). According to the same source, (Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that "our exit from Tigray gives the people of Tigray an opportunity to think carefully about matters." Abiy Ahmed added: "We spent about 100 billion birr in the Tigray region, equivalent to more than 13 times our annual budget for the region, but from now on, we do not want to continue this futile spending"). This withdrawal of the Ethiopian army occurred despite the landslide victory of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's party in the parliamentary elections on 10/07/2021, which he considered great popular support for his army's campaign on Tigray. To justify the army's withdrawal after the absolute victory over the TPLF, the Addis Ababa government began making excuses that the priority was to protect the Renaissance Dam after some clashes with the Sudanese army to control a border strip, the Al-Fashaga triangle (Al-Quds Al-Arabi, 02/07/2021).
Fifth: Upon closer inspection, we find that the weak Ethiopian army could not have occupied the rebel region in late 2020 with such ease without American support. The evidence of this American support is the participation of the Eritrean army alongside the Ethiopian army in the regional battles; the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, is a long-standing American agent. We also find that it was America that allowed the exit of the Eritrean army from Tigray after the Addis Ababa government had not even admitted its participation in the battles. Furthermore, the statements of the Foreign Minister and the Prime Minister in Ethiopia all indicate the voluntary withdrawal of the Ethiopian army from the region, vacating the field for the TPLF once again. This would never happen except at the request of America.
Sixth: By reflecting on what has happened and is happening in Ethiopia, it becomes clear that American plans for Ethiopia and the entire Horn of Africa have changed. To clarify this:
When America supported Abiy Ahmed's government and backed him through Saudi Arabia and bin Salman's contacts with him, it first assumed his ability to impose stability in Ethiopia. Then it became clear to America that he was unable to do so. Perhaps the alliance of the Oromo Liberation Army with the TPLF to topple the Addis Ababa government is a clear sign that Abiy Ahmed failed even to attract the ethnic group to which he belongs. On the other hand, the previous Trump administration, which provided support for the Ethiopian army's campaign on Tigray at the end of 2020 and ensured the defeat of the TPLF with the participation of the army of its agent, the President of Eritrea, was looking through a single lens: that of the Jewish entity. The Jewish entity sees Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's dedication to his plans for the Renaissance Dam as a major strategic threat to Egypt. Thus, the Trump administration, for electoral reasons and in alignment with the Jewish entity, supported Abiy Ahmed's plans in Ethiopia to re-impose control over the Tigray region at the end of 2020.
When the Biden administration succeeded Trump, American plans for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa changed, and American policy began leading Ethiopia toward disintegration. This explains why the Biden administration allowed the removal of the Eritrean army from Tigray and then the removal of the Ethiopian army from the region, essentially putting the region on the path to secession from Ethiopia. By following the statements of American officials regarding events in Ethiopia, we find that America's eye is fully open to the dismantling of Ethiopia; you find them frequently talking about the "unity of Ethiopian territories" even though the TPLF and other groups allied with it do not mention this publicly! This American trend toward dismantling Ethiopia is confirmed by the following:
a- What is happening in practice is by American planning. Nine factions allied with the Tigray Front against the central government, including the Oromo Liberation Army, which threatens the capital itself. The alliance of these factions was held in the American capital, Washington. (An alliance of nine factions opposing the Ethiopian government said on Friday "November 5, 2021," that it aims to topple the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whether by force or negotiations, and form a transitional government... The leaders of the factions announced the alliance in Washington despite calls from African and Western leaders for a ceasefire in the ongoing war between the central government and the TPLF and its allies. Deutsche Welle, 05/11/2021). It is apparent from this announcement in Washington that America is the one sponsoring these secessionist forces and working to weaken Abiy Ahmed's government.
b- The American magazine Foreign Affairs published a lengthy article about the war in Ethiopia, saying: (Even if it were possible to stop the fighting and wars, the absence of a unified identity for the country and severe disagreements over who should rule and how to continue make it difficult for Ethiopia to survive disintegration. It added that without a widely shared and convincing vision for the Ethiopian state, Abiy Ahmed will not be able to prevent the forces of disintegration from rising at the expense of the forces of unification and cohesion. Al Jazeera Net, 06/11/2021).
Seventh: In conclusion, it is America that seeks to weaken Abiy Ahmed's central government in Addis Ababa, and it is America that is paving the way for the successive victories of the Tigrayan rebels and other rebels of the Ethiopian regions. All of this follows the plan adopted by the Biden administration to dismantle Ethiopia and divide it into small states. This division may not happen in the short term, but this is the current American plan according to the course of events. It is the same American plan used for Sudan, under which its south was separated from it. All of this indicates the high degree of criminality in the American political mindset. America and other international colonialist powers do not care about shedding blood to implement their policies and achieve their interests, especially since the oppressed peoples are the ones who pay the price. In Ethiopia, Muslims have often been the first to pay the price, especially the people of Oromia surrounding the capital Addis Ababa, who are among the most marginalized of Ethiopia's peoples. Various Ethiopian forces agree with their masters from the colonialist disbelieving countries that Muslims have no share in ruling Ethiopia, and they agree on continuing the Christian face of Ethiopia and preventing Islam from surfacing on the political stage in Ethiopia despite the large percentage of Muslims in this country.
Africa has represented a model of Western criminality, as happened in the massacres in Rwanda and elsewhere. Usually, Muslims are the first victims of those wars. No one will be able to stand in the face of these savage international powers except the Islamic State, the Khilafah State, which spreads guidance among people to replace rotten asabiyyahs and nationalisms, unmasks the crimes of those major countries, and makes them an example for those who would take heed. Then, it will proclaim to the world the words of the Almighty, the All-Powerful:
وَقُلْ جَاءَ الْحَقُّ وَزَهَقَ الْبَاطِلُ إِنَّ الْبَاطِلَ كَانَ زَهُوقاً
"And say, 'Truth has come, and falsehood has departed. Indeed is falsehood, [by nature], ever bound to depart.'" (Surah Al-Isra 17:81)
16th of Rabi' al-Akhir 1443 AH 21/11/2021 CE