Answer to Question
Question:
At the beginning of this month, the US Secretary of State officially announced the United States' withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed with Russia in 1987. What are the dimensions of this American withdrawal? Was Russia actually violating the treaty, or was that merely an American pretext for withdrawal? If Russia did not violate the treaty, then what are America's goals for the withdrawal and why did it withdraw? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
First: Yes, ("US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Friday that America is suspending its commitment to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. Pompeo said: 'We will provide formal notice to Russia of the United States' withdrawal from the treaty within six months.' He confirmed that 'his country will suspend its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty starting tomorrow, Saturday.' He threatened that 'if Russia does not return to compliance with the treaty, it will be terminated'..." Arabi 21, 2019/2/1). This American announcement was expected after the United States had been raising doubts for months about Russia's commitment to the treaty known as the "INF" ("Trump said that the United States will not let Russia continue making weapons 'while we are prohibited from doing so'..." BBC 2018/10/21). As for Russia, it was stunned by this step from the Trump administration (Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, "This would be a very dangerous step, and it will provoke sharp condemnation." He added in a talk with the Russian news agency TASS that the treaty is important for global security in an atmosphere of an arms race, and for maintaining strategic stability. Ryabkov condemned what he described as "US attempts to obtain concessions through blackmail"... BBC 2018/10/21). After being officially notified of the American withdrawal, Russia responded with a similar step (Lavrov said in a press brief in Ashgabat: "President Vladimir Putin has defined our position, which is that we will respond in exactly the same way." He added: "The Americans suspended their commitment to the treaty, and we did the same, and at the end of the six-month period—stipulated in the treaty—and as a result of the official American memorandum of Washington's withdrawal from the treaty, we will terminate its validity" on our part... RT 2019/2/6). Thus, it is clear that the United States is carrying out an actual withdrawal process from that agreement, even before the six months have elapsed, and has announced that it will begin missile research and programs that it had refrained from under the agreement.
Second: As for the reason for the United States' withdrawal being what it announced—that Russia had violated the agreement by manufacturing the "9M729" missile—this is incorrect and unlikely. Russia declares that its missile has a range of 480 kilometers, which is below the 500 kilometers at which activity is prohibited by the agreement. The agreement stipulated the prohibition of short-range missiles from 500-1,000 kilometers and medium-range missiles from 1,000-5,500 kilometers. Russian short-range and medium-range missiles do not directly threaten American territory; rather, the Soviet Union, which was surrounded by many enemies, used to manufacture large quantities of these missiles that specifically reached Western Europe. When America deployed Pershing and Cruise missiles in Western Europe in the 1980s, and the Soviet Union responded by deploying SS-20 medium-range missiles, Europe became the most likely arena for a nuclear war between America and the Soviet Union in the eighties. Therefore, Europe was struck by panic and pressured for the reach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Third: By looking at that American step at that time, the danger of American policy can be understood. On one hand, America increased Western Europe's security dependence on it and made the fate of the European continent subject to Washington's hands. On the other hand, America saw Gorbachev's frantic steps toward disarmament since the beginning of the eighties. When the disarmament negotiations between them matured and that agreement was signed, America made it specific to short and medium-range missiles, so that the greater loss would be for the Soviet Union, which destroyed 1,800 nuclear missiles it had spent its money on, while America destroyed only 800 missiles, which is less than half of what Moscow destroyed (by May 1991, both parties announced the destruction of more than 2,600 missiles in implementation of the treaty, Russia's share of which was about 1,800 missiles... Al Jazeera Net 2019/2/2). That is, the work of the agreement to destroy the missiles ended in 1991, and commitment to the agreement remained, i.e., refraining from manufacturing similar nuclear missiles.
Fourth: By looking at the American strategy employed by the Trump administration, and partially by the Obama administration before it, it can be realized that global developments necessitated that Washington reconsider the entirety of American policy. The deep issues that the American strategy is observed to target are:
1- The American Economy: America saw that its economy, as one of the pillars of its international greatness, had suffered international weakness. Nevertheless, it noticed that Europe is economically strong because it does not spend enough on security, as it is reassured by the American security umbrella. In a respect no less important than Europe, the rise of China was extremely rapid; it built a first-class economy in a period of only two decades and built monetary institutions like the Asian Development Bank in a way that threatens the status of the international institutions that America built, such as the World Bank. These international economic facts and fluctuations have made America doubt the future of its economy as a fundamental pillar of its international hegemony. Therefore, it began to focus on its military greatness—that is, revealing its missile and nuclear fangs to intimidate competing countries. America under Trump no longer hides its goals; the American President said (that his country will increase its nuclear capability until "others come to their senses") Youm7 2018/11/6.
2- European Tendencies against America: French President Macron called for the creation of a European army to stand against Russian, Chinese, and even American threats. Trump wondered how Europe could think that America poses a threat to its security when it is the one that shelters it, preserves its security, and spends for its protection. Furthermore, Europe opposes America in many places, such as the Climate Agreement, the American war on Iraq, and the grueling power struggles in Arab, Islamic, and African regions; moreover, Europe cooperates significantly with China. For all of this, America wants the Russian threat to bring Europe back to its senses. By withdrawing from the treaty with Russia, Russia will be forced to launch into missile manufacturing, thereby restoring the Russian nuclear threat to loom over Europe, which is closest to Russia. The treaty had constituted a halt to nuclear competition on European soil, which was expressed by the German Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, saying (in a statement quoted by Reuters, that "for 30 years the treaty was a fundamental pillar of European security"... Russian Sputnik 2018/10/21). Previously, Heiko Maas told the German News Agency: (that his country would strongly oppose any move to deploy new medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe... the news agency quoted him as saying in an interview published on Wednesday, Europe must not under any circumstances become an arena for debate about rearmament... Al-Wefaq Online 2018/12/28). French President Emmanuel Macron had said before that (the United States' withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty will endanger European security. Macron added in his talk to the French radio "Europe 1" today, Tuesday, "When I see that President Trump announced several weeks ago his withdrawal from the important disarmament treaty, who will become the main victim..." Youm7 2018/11/6).
3- Russian Policy and American Pressure on it: After the Trump administration took power in America, hardly a month passes without an increase in American pressure on Russia, including sanctions, bringing NATO's military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders, annexing new countries to NATO (Macedonia), entangling Russia in Syria and being slow to help it find a way out of its predicament, and installing anti-missile systems at its eastern borders (in South Korea). Not the last of those American pressures is bringing life back to Japanese claims to the Kuril Islands and exacerbating Russian-Japanese relations. What emboldened America against Russia was Russia's response to it in Syria, so America wanted to transfer Russia's international services to America to the vicinity of China. Russia, for its part, understands this policy clearly, as the Russian Foreign Minister was explicit when he said: (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that the United States will not be able to turn Russia into a tool to serve its interests and confront China..., and said: "They are working to demonize us in order to impose discipline on Europe and strengthen the Euro-Atlantic bond. For example, they are now seriously discussing how to use Russia against China for their benefit... out of a desire to make us a tool to serve the interests of the United States"... RT 2018/12/24). Russia, after America succeeded in entangling it in Syria to serve American interests, is being subjected to great pressure to draw it against China, and this is a broad line in the new American policy on the Russian direction. By America withdrawing from the short and medium-range missile treaty with Russia, it increases the pressure on Russia on one hand, and on the other hand, it works to strain its relations with China. Increasing pressure on Russia is by pushing it into a new arms race that its economy is not capable of fighting. Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Russian Foreign Minister, said (We do not want to engage in an arms race with the United States while it is seeking to drag us into that... RT Arabic channel 2019/2/7). As for straining the relationship with China, America forcing Russia to engage in an arms race in strategic medium and short-range weapons will create great apprehension in China, which shares its borders, as all Chinese territories become within range of those missiles that had ended from Russia by 1991; subsequently, this matter creates tension between China and Russia.
4- The Great Chinese Rise and what is required American-wise to confront it: The new American strategy, in effect since Obama's second term, places China at the forefront of American priorities. Trump has escalated this priority, as he is fighting a trade war with China to stop its rise, especially since China's powerful economic strength makes it capable of building a strong army that does not lack nuclear weapons, which can be developed and pose further risks to American power and hegemony. The military budget announced by China ($228 billion) is larger than the military budgets of the next four countries after China (Russia, Britain, France, and Germany combined). America does not rule out that China is hiding some of its military programs, as its economy qualifies it for more military spending. This is from one side... from another side, America, which is exhausted by the economic war with China due to the convergence of the two economies in power, wants to transfer its efforts to limit China's growth to the military arena, where it is decisively superior compared to China. For this reason, America wants to free itself from the constraints (the missile treaty with Russia) that prevent it from surrounding China with medium and short-range nuclear weapons that it can install in South Korea, Japan, and other countries around China. In other words, it wants to dissipate Chinese economic power by pushing it into an arms race, so that China manufactures more medium and short-range missiles in response to potential American steps in China's vicinity, at a time when America employs not only its economic energies but also the energies of others like Japan and South Korea in the arms race for the Far East, which will lead the Chinese economy to descend from its current rank.
Fifth: In conclusion, the long-term American goals become clear by its withdrawal from the missile agreement with Russia as follows:
1- With the decline of the American economy and the weakness of its effectiveness as a primary tool of American hegemony, especially with the growth of the Chinese economy and its competition with its American counterpart, as well as European competition, America decided to increase the prominence of its strategic military capabilities—for which there is no competitor—to settle and consolidate its international hegemony in Europe, with Russia, and also with China.
2- With the growing European evasion and the maneuvering of European countries against America politically in many international issues, America decided to bring back the Russian threat to weigh on Europe's chest again, exactly as it was during the Soviet era. This is by creating a new arms race with Russia to force European countries to resort to the American nuclear umbrella for protection from Russia, and consequently accepting Washington's new conditions, such as increasing military spending and ensuring they remain under American leadership.
3- Increasing pressure on Russia and threatening its existing strategic situation with a new arms race that Russia cannot bear, and forcibly driving it toward positions that do not please China, which alienates the two countries. According to the new strategic situation imposed by Washington's withdrawal from the treaty, Russia faces two options, each more bitter than the other: either to proceed with a losing arms race that reveals the limitations of its strategic capabilities, thereby moving to a rank closer to the status of France and Britain in terms of strategic capabilities; or to respond to American pressures that could save its face, thus maintaining international greatness that is completely dependent on American acceptance, in exchange for moving with America to serve its goals in China's vicinity.
4- As for the Chinese side, America's goals for withdrawing from its treaty with Russia may be priority number 1. America wants to control China's military capabilities and does not want those capabilities to surprise it as the Chinese economy surprised it in its growth speed. This could be by controlling these capabilities through treaties that make their growth under the eyes and sight of America, or by forcing China to fight a strategic arms race in the Far East—that race in which America is superior—and making it a powerful tool in breaking the solidity of the Chinese economy, and consequently pushing it toward decline.
Sixth: In conclusion, what causes a lump in the throat is that Muslims are far from this international arena of conflict; they are neither in the caravan nor in the vanguard! Rather, the harmful rulers (Hukkam al-Dirar) in the Islamic lands have become more responsive to America in particular and the West in general to prevent the giant of Islam from appearing. But the increasing vitality the Islamic Ummah shows toward Islam, its rejection of its rulers' secular systems, and its movements against them, confirm that the era of coercive rule (Asr al-Jabri) does not have much life left. It will be succeeded, by Allah's permission, by the Rightly Guided Khilafah (Khilafah Rashidah) at the hands of the sincere workers, so that the glad tidings of the Messenger of Allah (saw) will be fulfilled:
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ ثُمَّ سَكَتَ
"Then there will be a coercive kingship, and it will remain as long as Allah wills it to remain. Then He will remove it when He wills to remove it. Then there will be a Khilafah upon the Prophetic method. Then he (the Prophet) remained silent." (Narrated by Ahmad)
Then the earth will shine with the light of the Khilafah anew, and the colonialist disbelievers will retreat with their evils to their own homes, and the Islamic Ummah will return to the lead of the world, guiding it away from evil and its people.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (TMQ Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
7th of Jumada al-Akhira 1440 AH
12/2/2019 CE