Answer to a Question
[(Washington: The United States freezes the delivery of F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey... A Pentagon spokesperson said, "Pending an unequivocal Turkish decision to forgo delivery of the S-400, deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability have been suspended." He added, "Our dialogue with Turkey on this important issue continues...") i24news.tv 2019/4/1]
Question: The agreement between Turkey and Russia regarding the S-400 deal began to be discussed in September 2017. At that time, America did not strongly object to the agreement; rather, its position was more of a reservation. What has made it now, after about a year and a half, show such intensity that resembles a threat to Turkey if it receives this deal from Russia? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer: To clarify the answer to this question, we review the following points:
Russia's aggression in Syria began on 2015/9/30 by agreement with America, as ("it was directly preceded by a meeting between Obama and Putin on 2015/9/29, which lasted 90 minutes... the Ukrainian crisis occupied the first part of it, while the two presidents focused on the situation in Syria in the remaining part. The results of this meeting appeared immediately, and on 2015/9/30, the Russian Federation Council unanimously approved Putin's request to use the Russian Air Force in Syria..." Russia Today 2015/9/30). America realized that if the war dragged on and the quagmire tightened for Russia, it might rush to perform actions not calculated by America. Therefore, America wanted to make Erdogan's Turkey its eye to regulate the Russian rhythm within American limits. It prompted Turkey to join Russia in what resembled an alliance so that Turkey could control the pace of Russian attacks, ensuring they did not exceed the required limits—namely, that the opposition gathered in Idlib would not be eliminated before the end of America's project for the final solution to the Syrian crisis, as America wants an opposition to remain to negotiate with the regime during the final solution.
But the problem was that Turkey appeared on the surface to be with the opposition and Russia with the regime, meaning they were in conflict. Then the issue escalated further when the Russian plane was shot down by Turkish pilots on 2015/11/24, and Erdogan rode the wave of popular sentiment, refusing to apologize. Because America was interested in Turkey harmonizing with Russia, its view was that Turkey should apologize and draw closer to Russia, and so it was. After Turkey had been saying that the Russian plane violated its airspace and did not deserve an apology, it went ahead and apologized on 2016/6/27: ("Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that 'the Turkish President expressed his sympathy and profound condolences to the family of the killed Russian pilot and said I am sorry,' adding that Erdogan said he 'would do everything possible to repair the traditionally friendly relations between Turkey and Russia'..." Al-Arabiya, 2016/6/27). There was also something resembling compensation ("The mayor of the Turkish resort town of Kemer proposed giving a house to the family of the murdered pilot during a meeting with the Russian Consul General in the city of Antalya that took place earlier on Friday..." Russia Today 2016/7/1). After Putin was the enemy bombing the people, especially the Turkmen Mountain, talking to him took on a friendly atmosphere. Erdogan called Putin on 2016/6/29 ("and according to sources in the Turkish presidency, the call took place in a very friendly atmosphere..." Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 2016/6/29). Subsequently, Turkey and Russia appeared as friends, with Erdogan addressing Putin as a friend despite Russia's continued bombing of Muslims in Syria!
Thus, the friendship became intimate, and Erdogan entered into agreements and meetings with Putin. We said in a previous Question Answer on 2017/2/5: ("Turkey continued to play this role in service to America as a loyal follower even after the announcement of President-elect Trump's victory on 2016/11/9, and it did not even think of any potential changes after he took office on 2017/1/20. Since Trump showed flexibility toward Russia during his election campaign, Russia thought that setting the date for the Astana talks after Trump's inauguration would make America elevate the status of the conference by attending at a high level. Russia was waiting on pins and needles for President Trump to take office, hoping that Trump's Secretary of State would attend. Thus, Russia was looking forward to the Astana conference being a launchpad for comprehensive peace negotiations between the Syrian opposition and Bashar's government with Trump's support... this was a result of its political stupidity in thinking Trump supports Russia! Then it extended an invitation to Washington to attend the conference, expecting a high-level delegation. The slap it received was that Washington-Trump participated in the Astana negotiations by sending the American ambassador in Astana as an observer! Thus, the Astana negotiations were held on 2017/1/23 and ended on 2017/1/24 without any significant result regarding the ceasefire; rather, firing intensified on Wadi Barada! Naturally, without any political solution, the Astana negotiations fell far below the level Russia wanted, and the negotiations ended by stalling around the square of the ceasefire!") End quote.
The situation continued like this until late 2017 when the Russian situation became critical, and Russia began waving the prospect of eliminating the opposition in Idlib. This interest was so significant that America feared Russia might become headstrong and defy American obedience by preparing for a final attack on Idlib before the American final solution for the Syrian crisis. At this stage, it was necessary for Turkey to draw closer to Russia strongly in what resembled an alliance, so that a sweeping attack on Idlib would not occur except with the agreement of both parties. Thus was the S-400 deal for $2.5 billion, which was a tempting deal for Russia, especially during its economic crisis. Erdogan justified it by claiming that more than half of the Turkish pilots were arrested after the failed military coup attempt in mid-July 2016, and thus the Turkish Air Force did not have enough pilots capable of using all the F-16 fighters in Turkey's possession. Therefore, it needed the advanced Russian S-400 deal to compensate for the shortage of pilots flying warplanes, ensuring Turkey's safety in terms of air defense.
Russia was delighted by this deal as it focused on gaining material advantages; the S-400 deal with Turkey was worth about $2.5 billion. Moscow wanted to compensate for its losses due to European and American sanctions and the boycott of Russian oil and gas by many. This deal represented a new attachment between Russia and Turkey. When Turkey conditioned the deal on joint production ("Akşam newspaper quoted Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on Monday, 2017/10/9, as saying that his country might seek an agreement with another country to possess a missile defense system if Russia does not agree to the joint production of the S-400 missile system" DW on 2017/10/9), Russia then refused joint production, so Turkey retreated and agreed to the deal to stop the Russian attack on Idlib that Russia had actually begun (AFP: At least 28 civilians were killed Friday night/Saturday in airstrikes on the town of Armanaz in Idlib province, which is among the de-escalation zones in northwestern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 12 deaths were reported in an earlier toll... Idlib province had been declared a de-escalation zone under the Astana agreement, yet Russia attacked it... Rami Abdul Rahman, director of the Observatory, pointed out: "Warplanes carried out a second raid targeting the town of Armanaz in northwestern Idlib countryside, where these planes bombed the areas of the first raid during the operation to rescue the wounded and pull those trapped from under the rubble of buildings destroyed by the warplanes." The Observatory further stated that 13 other civilians were killed in shelling operations in various parts of the province. Idlib province has been subjected to intensive Russian and Syrian raids for two weeks... Akhbar Al-Khaleej on 2017/09/30). Thus, the deal was concluded without joint production! Erdogan said—during his return from a trip to Ukraine and Serbia—("that there would be no joint production in the first stage of the S-400 missiles that his country will buy, but in the second stage, 'God willing, we will take steps regarding joint production.' The S-400 is an advanced missile system capable of destroying targets from long distances, the number of targets it can track simultaneously reaches three hundred, and the destruction range of aircraft is between three and 240 kilometers. It can destroy all types of fighters and intercept cruise missiles... Besides its destructive capability, the S-400 system needs only five minutes for the missile to be ready for launch, and the Russian army has been equipped with it since 2007..." Al Jazeera on 2017/12/29).
Naturally, America took a quiet stance toward the agreement, resembling a mere reservation, even though Turkey is a member of NATO, and arms organization within the alliance is a Western organization that contradicts having Russian weapons, especially the S-400, which can penetrate the Western system in the alliance. But America and the alliance showed a soft stance then for two considerations: First, America needed to keep the attachment between Russia and Turkey existing to prevent Russia from attacking Idlib before the completion of the American final solution for the Syrian crisis. Second, America discounted the implementation of this deal as long as Turkey is in NATO, as America would not allow Turkey to have a Russian system within the Western system in NATO. For these two considerations, the stance of America and subsequently NATO was quiet, not exceeding reservation! ("...Washington still insists on its reserved position regarding Turkey's purchase of these missiles, while NATO considered that Turkey has the right to acquire weapons that help it maintain its security after Ankara announced that the main system would not be integrated into NATO systems..." Asharq Al-Awsat 2017/12/28).
As a result of the deal, relations between Russia and Turkey flourished noticeably, and the Idlib front calmed relatively. Russia thought that this friendship and joint talks with Turkey would hasten reaching a solution through which Russia could escape its predicament. However, the situation continued for about a year until late 2018, and nothing changed regarding Russia's predicament. America was not paying attention to the talks that were taking place, especially in Astana, but rather attended them as an observer like Jordan, or was represented by its ambassador in Kazakhstan! Russia realized there is no solution if America does not participate seriously. It seems Russia realized the American game and decided to attack Idlib, foolishly thinking that Turkey would stand with it, only to be surprised by its rejection, and subsequently returned its forces to their barracks! We clarified this matter in a previous Question Answer on 2018/9/22: [When the armed Syrian revolution was cornered in Idlib, and Russia wanted to continue its military operations, it mobilized, threatened, and maneuvered in the Mediterranean with large warships and strategic bombers and closed the airspace in the Eastern Mediterranean for the first time in its history. It found itself in a great predicament as Russia witnessed things it had not accounted for:
A- ... Turkey did not agree to a comprehensive war on Idlib, ("The Turkish minister considered that 'terrorists' should be identified and fought, and it is not correct to launch a comprehensive war on Idlib and bomb it randomly." Enab Baladi 2018/8/14). Turkey's opposition to the war was clearly manifested during the Tehran summit between the presidents of Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Turkey highlighted, in a way that surprised Russia, its fears of the war on Idlib and the flow of refugees to it, and embarrassed Russia by considering the war a tool for eliminating the political solution in Syria. ("Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today, Friday, that the continuation of attacks on the opposition-controlled Idlib province will lead to the collapse of the political process in Syria..." Youm7 2018/9/7). Thus, Turkey became an obstacle to the Russian ambition of eliminating the military factions in Idlib. Because it was so, the matter required a second meeting between Erdogan and Putin on 2018/9/16 in Sochi, only nine days after their meeting in Tehran...
B- Thus, America wants Russia to remain stuck in Syria, unable to leave until America finishes implementing the political solution according to its plans... Russia has become aware of this American policy and perhaps realized America's entrapment of it in Syria. It is indeed stuck there and cannot leave except with the permission of America, which possesses all the tools of influence in Syria. Therefore, it could not complete its prepared attack to end the crisis in Idlib in its own way because Turkey, prompted by America, objected, and Iran remained silent... Thus, the Iran meeting on 2018/9/7 failed to approve Russia's plan to attack Idlib and end the crisis in the Russian way... Only a few days passed until the Erdogan-Putin meeting was held, and the creation of a demilitarized zone replaced the attack! This was with American blessing, as Novosti agency reported on 2018/9/18 from a US State Department official telling the agency: "We welcome and encourage Russia and Turkey to take practical steps to prevent a military attack by the Assad government and its allies on Idlib province..." The Russian president said at the end of his meeting with his Turkish counterpart in the Russian resort of Sochi, "We decided to establish a demilitarized zone between 15 and 20 kilometers wide along the contact line, starting from the fifteenth of October of this year"... Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced to Russian agencies that this agreement would prevent the attack expected for days on the last stronghold of the factions in Syria. In response to a question about whether this agreement meant there would be no military attack on Idlib, the minister replied "Yes," according to Interfax and TASS... In contrast, Erdogan said in the press conference following the meeting between the two presidents: "Russia will take the necessary steps to ensure that no attack occurs on the de-escalation zone in Idlib..." France 24 / AFP 2018/09/17)... Thus, Russia stopped its bombing of Idlib and returned its ships that had maneuvered in the Mediterranean... That is, the interest of Turkey and America behind it in preventing Russia's attack on Idlib was primarily for America's benefit and not to prevent the regime from reaching Idlib or to protect civilians. Rather, at the time when America tightens the solution it wants and Russia submits to it, the blood of Idlib—civilians or non-civilians, demilitarized or not—will become cheap to them... their history speaks of that in various regions of Syria, and their crimes precede them from every side...] End quote.
Thus, America felt reassured about the success of its plan and that Turkey had become capable of frustrating any Russian attack on Idlib before the completion of the American solution to the Syrian crisis, which involves America creating a new agent to succeed the current agent who would be acceptable to the current opposition. This naturally requires the opposition to remain in Idlib to negotiate with the regime to approve the new rule according to the American plan. Accordingly, America no longer needs Turkey's cooperation with Russia. Russia is no longer able to mobilize forces and attack Idlib. Therefore, the reason for which America remained silent regarding Turkey's agreement with Russia on the S-400 deal has vanished. Consequently, America's tough and threatening positions toward Turkey began if the deal were to be implemented as a Russian system within the Western NATO system. American positions against the deal became stringent, even though they were soft when it was concluded due to a different American need for Turkey's rapprochement with Russia at the time of the agreement in 2017, which ended in 2019.
Among these stringent positions that were announced:
A- ("Officials from the United States and NATO warned Ankara that the Russian system cannot be integrated into the alliance's air and missile system and that purchasing the S-400 system will weaken the possibility of Turkey purchasing F-35 fighters from the American Lockheed Martin and may lead to sanctions by Washington..." Sky News Arabia, 2019/2/26).
B- ("Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers announced Friday 2019/3/8 that Turkey could face serious consequences if it buys the Russian anti-missile system, then added in a press conference at the Pentagon: 'If Turkey buys the S-400, there will be serious consequences for our relationship in general and our military relations specifically... and they will not be able to obtain F-35 planes and Patriot missiles...' DW on 2019/3/8).
C- ("A US State Department official said Tuesday that the United States told Turkey that if the latter moves forward with the 'S-400' deal, it will threaten its participation in the 'F-35' program, and will also threaten any future arms deal with Washington... In the first American measure to prevent the delivery of F-35 planes to Turkey, a Pentagon spokesperson said Monday that the United States had stopped shipping equipment related to these planes to Ankara... Two informed sources told Reuters that US officials told their Turkish counterparts in the past few days that they would not receive further shipments of F-35 related equipment necessary to prepare for the arrival of the stealth planes manufactured by Lockheed Martin... Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Mike Andrews said in a statement: 'Pending an unequivocal Turkish decision to forgo delivery of the S-400, deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability have been suspended.'" Al Arabiya Net on 2019/4/2).
D- ("Deputy State Department Spokesperson Robert Palladino said that Washington is seriously concerned about this deal. Palladino also stressed that there is a potential rethink of the joint production of F-35 planes with Turkey, as well as any other arms deals in the future. He also mentioned that the state or private institutions and figures involved in purchasing the S-400 could be subject to potential sanctions under the 'CAATSA' law." Kurdstreet on 2019/3/11).
- As for what is expected regarding the implementation of the deal, it ranges between the following matters:
A- That Turkey decides not to proceed with the deal, given its close political and economic ties with America, and compensates for the deal by purchasing tactical weapons, such as helicopters, from Russia instead of the S-400 deal, as such tactical weapons will not face a hostile reaction from NATO or the United States. Consequently, Turkey would obtain defense equipment from America that preserves its security... Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday ("I expect we'll resolve the problem so that they have the right defense equipment with respect to Patriots and F-35s." Al Arabiya Net on 2019/4/2).
B- Or the Americans propose the "Greek solution," which is placing the Russian missiles in warehouses and leaving them to the mercy of rust, in exchange for purchasing Patriot missile batteries from the United States, which cost three and a half billion dollars. The story of the Russian missiles in Greece goes back to Moscow selling them originally to Cyprus, which paid for them, but Ankara's strong objections forced Athens to keep them to avoid a serious crisis with Turkey. This would mean that the Turks pay this amount in addition to two and a half billion dollars for the Russian missiles! This solution certainly suits Donald Trump, but its heavy financial cost will put the Turkish government in the crosshairs of the Turkish opposition, which will have the right to accuse the government of squandering the Turkish people's money on the altar of the government's foreign policy mistakes.
C- Or it is possible to send this system to a third country like India to avoid angering Russia, which also aligns with America's strategy to encircle China.
It seems that the most likely probability is the first (Point A), as current statements from the parties involved pave the way for this, such as Shanahan's statement mentioned above on 2019/4/2, as well as the statement of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Defense Industry: ("We have no concerns about the possibility of Turkey withdrawing from the S-400 deal" Al Jazeera on 2019/4/3). Also, what Al Jazeera reported on the same day 2019/4/3 ("The Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Vladimir Shamanov, did not rule out the possibility of Turkey abandoning the S-400 missile system deal with Russia... Al Jazeera Net on 2019/4/3"). Also, what Al Arabiya Al Hadath reported today 2019/4/4: ("Turkey calls for a working group with Washington to discuss the danger of the Russian S-400 missile system"). All this makes the first possibility—of not implementing the missile deal with Russia, i.e., canceling the deal—the most likely.
28th of Rajab 1440 AH 2019/4/4 CE