Answer to a Question
Question:
Tanzania is considered one of the most politically stable countries in Africa and plays a significant role in the SADC organization. Its relations with its former colonizer, Britain, are strong. However, American and Chinese movements are noticeable there. To what extent do the US and China influence this country? Is there an international conflict occurring within it? And why was the SADC group established?
Answer:
To clarify the answer to the above questions, we review the following points:
First: Tanzania is considered a Muslim country, as the percentage of Muslims exceeds 60%. Islam entered it at the end of the first Hijri century. However, it was subjected to attacks by colonialist enemies of Islam, starting from Portuguese colonialism to German and British colonialism; now, America is on the path of intervention. Its strategic location makes it important to colonialist nations, as it lies on the Indian Ocean on its eastern border and is situated within the African Great Lakes region. Therefore, it was one of the gateways for colonialists to enter the depths of Africa and colonize it. Tanzania gained its superficial independence at the end of 1961, yet British influence remained dominant over it.
Second: Britain appointed Julius Nyerere as the president of Tanganyika, who appeared as if he were leading a liberation movement against colonialism! He had previously been appointed as a minister in the British government that administered the region before independence. Zanzibar was merged with Tanganyika in 1964 to form the United Republic of Tanzania according to a British plan drawn up to stand against America, which had begun working to replace old colonialism in Africa. Nyerere ruled Tanzania with an iron fist until 1985, working to consolidate British influence and fighting Islam. He covered himself with the slogan of revolution and socialism while applying the capitalist system, as is the habit of many agents of the West!
Third: Because Muslims are the majority (more than 60%), and to prevent a president from being among them if there were presidential elections, they crafted a constitution. Paragraph 3 of Article 47 stipulates "the requirement that the presidential candidate be from a specific part of the Union (Tanganyika or Zanzibar) and at the same time, the Vice President must be from the other side." There is an understanding—rather than a constitutional mandate—that the presidency alternates between Christians and Muslims. After the death of the Christian president Julius Nyerere, who ruled for the longest period (from the end of 1961 until 1985), Ali Hassan Mwinyi of Muslim origin took power (1985–1995). Then the Christian Benjamin William Mkapa took over (1995–2005), followed by President Jakaya Kikwete of Muslim origin (2005–2015). Then a Christian, John Magufuli, took power and passed away last year. Consequently, his Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan, of Muslim origin, assumed the presidency on March 19, 2021. She had been a minister in the Zanzibar government within the Union. In 2014, she was appointed Minister of State for Union Affairs. In 2015, President John Magufuli chose her as Vice President, bypassing many in the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party—Nyerere’s party, which rules the country exclusively and always wins by a high percentage. Nyerere’s party won the last presidential elections held in 2020 with 84.39%, and thus its candidate Magufuli and his deputy Samia Hassan won a second term. This indicates that the rulers of Tanzania still follow Britain, as the pro-British party of Nyerere still dominates the state. To continue the agreed-upon political tradition of alternating power, Samia Hassan appointed the former president’s assistant for economic affairs, Philip Mpango, as her deputy, who is a Christian. For information, President Samia Hassan was born in January 1960 in Zanzibar, which enjoys semi-autonomous rule and where the number of Muslims is about 99%. Later, she pursued studies in public administration in Tanzania first, then graduated from the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. She took the constitutional oath wearing a headscarf with the Quran in her right hand, gaining a good reputation among her Muslim compatriots, especially as she followed a softened path with the opposition.
Fourth: Britain views Tanzania with a degree of importance from both political and economic perspectives:
Politically: Its location as one of the gateways to the depths of Africa and its colonization makes it important to them. Britain worked to stand against the spread of Islam, fighting it and its people who reject and resist the colonialist. Furthermore, Britain's loss of Tanzania would cause the loss of some neighboring countries where Britain still has influence, such as Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, and other countries in the region.
Economically: It is the largest foreign direct investor in Tanzania in sectors such as mining, manufacturing, and agricultural production. It is the largest investor in Tanzanian tea, and its exports dominate the Tanzanian market, especially cars and electronic devices.
Fifth: Likewise, America views Tanzania with a degree of importance and tries to penetrate it by all means to replace old colonialism. Tanzania was one of the few African countries visited by American presidents to show interest and try to pull it toward America. Bush Jr. visited it on February 17, 2008. Similarly, Obama visited on July 1, 2013, where he laid the foundation stone for a memorial in front of his country's embassy to honor eleven Americans killed in the 1998 US embassy bombing in Dar es Salaam.
Sixth: Thus, it can be said that the political conflict revolves between Britain—the continuous old colonialist—and America, which is trying to penetrate Tanzania to succeed British influence. Both countries use their malicious colonialist means to achieve their goals:
As for America, it announced its objection to the 2020 election results. Morgan Ortagus, spokesperson for the US State Department, wrote on October 30, 2020, following the announcement of President Magufuli's victory, on her Twitter account, saying she was "concerned about credible reports of election irregularities and the use of force against unarmed civilians" and said, "we will hold the responsible individuals accountable." Also, America adopts the demands of the opposition, especially the Chadema party, to stir up political chaos so it can break the dominance of the ruling party, which is Britain's party. This is despite the fact that the opposition is still weak; the candidate of the largest opposition party, the Party for Democracy and Progress (Chadema), did not obtain a large percentage in the 2020 presidential elections, as its candidate Tundu Lissu received 13.03%. The Chadema candidate rejected the results, saying "they witnessed fraud unprecedented in our history." Likewise, America exploits calls for secession, especially the call for the secession of the Zanzibar region from Tanganyika. Furthermore, it uses the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a means to influence the government in Tanzania.
As for Britain, it works according to its method of political cunning to close the doors that America tries to exploit in Tanzania. On one hand, it appears as if it agrees with America, and on the other hand, it implements a different policy:
a. Regarding the elections, Britain issued a statement that was open to interpretation. The British Minister for Africa, James Duddridge, stated on his Twitter account on October 30, 2020: "The UK is concerned about reports of irregularities" and called for a "transparent investigation" and urged political actors to "find a peaceful solution." Thus, it satisfied America but did not object to the election results and did not say what America said: "that there are credible reports of electoral irregularities" or call for "holding those responsible accountable!"
b. Regarding the opposition, leaders of an Islamic group that called for the independence of the semi-autonomous Zanzibar region in Tanzania were cleared of terrorism charges: "The prominent leaders of the civil society group, the Association for Islamic Mobilization and Propagation, or UAMSHO, were released after eight years of detention. Farid Hadi and Msellem Ali Msellem were released Tuesday night. The Director of Public Prosecutions, Sylvester Mwakitalu, confirmed to reporters that all charges against them were dropped... June 16, 2021 https://apnews.com/)". Also, in recent weeks, some banned Swahili newspapers were allowed to resume, and President Samia Suluhu Hassan issued a pardon for many prisoners of conscience, including members of Chadema.
c. Regarding the issue of the IMF, although the Fund was previously "expelled" from Tanzania during the era of President Ali Hassan Mwinyi because it wanted to impose conditions such as devaluing the currency, raising prices, and freezing wages—which increases people's suffering as the Fund does in every country that requests a loan—the Fund exploited the repercussions of the Corona pandemic to offer a loan to Tanzania worth $567 million, saying that "the outbreak of Corona led to the collapse of the tourism sector and exacerbated the need for significant financing" (Bloomberg, September 8, 2021). The government of Tanzania agreed to take the loan, even though Tanzania did not recognize the outbreak of Corona and did not impose prevention measures, but it agreed to improve the relationship with the Fund and not clash with America, in line with the British approach it follows.
d. Most importantly is the establishment of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which was founded on August 17, 1992, replacing the Southern African Development Coordination Conference founded in Botswana on April 1, 1980, by nine member states (Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Eswatini, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Its number has now reached 15 after the entry of (South Africa, Namibia, Mauritius, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Seychelles). Britain established it to maintain its influence in the region and prevent American influence from intervening in the group's countries. Therefore, when the American oil company (Anadarko) discovered a large reserve of natural gas in 2010 in the Rovuma Basin off the coast of Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique—where Muslims live in that country—and then this reserve was confirmed in 2017 according to an article published by the Financial Times in 2017: "Gas was discovered in two adjacent blocks, and each has proven reserves of about 75 trillion cubic feet, which is enough—as experts say—to supply Britain, France, Germany, and Italy for more than 20 years." Thus, when the gas was discovered and confirmed in 2017, Britain noticed America's tendency to intervene in Mozambique, especially since it was accompanied by increasing "insurgency" movements in this country led by a local group called Ansar al-Sunna wal-Jama'ah. Consequently, Rwanda, which is subordinate to America, offered to help Mozambique against this "insurgency" and enticed it, so Mozambique agreed. On July 9, 2021, Rwanda deployed a force of 1,000 soldiers at the request of Mozambique to help suppress the long-standing Islamic insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province. Although Rwanda is subordinate to America, Mozambique preferred to request help from Rwanda.
Seventh: When Britain noticed this, it moved the SADC group to remedy the situation in Mozambique, which is a member of it:
"Leaders of the Southern African Development Community during the summit praised member states for their commitment to deploying the SADC Standby Force and providing financial support in Cabo Delgado province, northern Mozambique, for its deployment in that country. August 21, 2021 https://africa.sis.gov.eg/)".
When America-aligned Rwanda deployed a thousand soldiers in northern Mozambique—which is not a member of SADC—a number of SADC members objected: "The deployment of Rwandan forces angered some members of SADC, as Rwanda's participation is not under SADC's control..." They protested that Rwanda's justification, not being a member of SADC, for helping Mozambique is a justification for a "recipe for disaster"... July 22, 2021 https://www.defense-network.com/). Thus, Britain, which realized America's attempts to intervene through Rwanda's assistance to Mozambique, immediately sent military aid to Mozambique through its organization SADC so that Rwanda would not remain alone there.
According to a Bloomberg report, "South Africa's Foreign Minister said in a G7 meeting: 'I had the opportunity to meet France, the EU, and the US Secretary of State and explained to them that our view is that the Southern African Development Community should lead this matter' (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-08-13)".
Recently, the group held a conference on January 18, 2022, in Malawi to support the economic and social reconstruction of the natural gas-rich Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique, which has a population of about 30 million people, of whom Muslims make up about 20%. The amount of gas in the underground of this region is estimated at about 75 trillion cubic meters. The conference approved support for Mozambique and measures to consolidate peace, security, and social and economic recovery in this province where armed movements are active. It pledged to continue fighting terrorism and extremists in Mozambique. The President of Malawi, Lazarus Chakwera, who chairs the SADC group, said: "The group's commitment to ensuring that the Cabo Delgado region in Mozambique remains intact, stable, and secure, and that the summit provided an opportunity to review the SADC mission in Mozambique in the fight against terrorism..." (SPA, January 18, 2022).
Eighth: As for China's efforts, they are still dominated by economic influence rather than achieving political influence. Economic rapprochement with it is intended to annoy America. By reflecting on this matter, it becomes clear that Tanzania is working to strengthen its economic relations with China to alleviate the brunt of economic conditions and to get rid of the dominance of the IMF over it—i.e., from American dominance—and all this is under British guidance. For this reason, Tanzania signed economic and technical cooperation agreements with China to finance Chinese projects in Tanzania. There are discussions to finance projects worth tens of billions of dollars, whether to build a new port for $10 billion, an LNG plant for $30 billion, or an iron and coal mine project for $3 billion. In a phone call between Xi Jinping and Samia Hassan on June 22, 2021, Xi said: "China is ready to implement the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in line with development strategies in Tanzania and expand cooperation in areas such as agriculture, transport, communications, tourism, and energy." Meanwhile, Samia Hassan said: "Tanzania is ready to work with China to effectively advance the joint construction of the Belt and Road and will seriously implement the results of the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and will promote the new development of China-Africa relations" (CGTN Chinese page, June 22, 2021).
Ninth: From this, it is understood that Britain still controls the SADC group, as decisions are issued in favor of strengthening British influence by supporting the subordinate regimes. Accordingly, it can be said that Britain is dominant over Tanzania as well as SADC, and America's attempts to penetrate Mozambique fluctuate between success and failure and are unstable so far.
Due to these factors, Tanzania and Mozambique are candidates for the occurrence of an international conflict—that is, between Britain, which has influence in SADC and its members, and America, which is ambitious to extend its influence in place of Britain, especially in Mozambique. Nothing saves these African countries from their crises and the claws of colonialism except to be ruled by Islam, which is a mercy to the worlds.
وَمَا أَرْسَلْنَاكَ إِلَّا رَحْمَةً لِلْعَالَمِينَ
"And We have not sent you, [O Muhammad], except as a mercy to the worlds." (Al-Anbiya [21]: 107)
1st of Ramadan 1443 AH April 2, 2022 AD