Question:
The Egypt Arab website published on 28/08/2019: "Surveying and exploration activities are proceeding at a high pace; no one can hinder our work now or in the future... This is what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said two days ago regarding gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, in a new challenge to Egypt, Cyprus, and European Union sanctions." Does this mean there is a conflict over Mediterranean gas among these four parties? Are the quantities of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean large enough to cause conflict between countries? May Allah reward you with good.
Answer:
Yes, the quantities are significantly large and important due to the Middle East region where these quantities are located. The conflict over them is not just between these four (Turkey, Cyprus, the EU, and Egypt), but also involves America, Russia, and the Jew's state usurping the Blessed Land of Palestine... Furthermore, the major internationally influential countries exploit gas in their economic and political conflicts... To clarify this, we review the following:
First: Discovery of Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Its Importance:
1- Discovery of gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean region:
This discovery began in 2000 when "British Gas," a subsidiary of "British Petroleum," discovered the "Gaza Marine" field 36 km off the coast of the Gaza Strip. The total reserves of the field are estimated at approximately one trillion cubic feet of gas... In January 2009, the "Tamar" field was discovered, with total reserves estimated at nearly 10 trillion cubic feet according to geological surveys. The field is located 90 km off the shores of northern occupied Palestine, at a depth of 1,650 meters below sea level... The same year saw the discovery of the "Aphrodite" field 180 km off the southwestern coast of Cyprus, at a depth of 1,700 meters below sea level, with total reserves estimated at nearly 9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas... In 2012, the "Leviathan" field was discovered with gas reserves of 17 trillion cubic feet, located 135 km off the shores of northern occupied Palestine near the city of Haifa, at a depth of 1,600 meters below sea level.
In 2015, the "Zohr" field was discovered near the Egyptian coast by the Italian company "Eni," which is considered the largest gas field in the Mediterranean. The field is about 200 km from the shores of the Egyptian city of Port Said, with proven reserves of 30 trillion cubic feet of gas. According to Eni's estimates, it will extract 2.5 billion cubic feet per year in the current year 2019, accounting for about 40% of Egypt's gas production. Following the Zohr field, Eni announced at the beginning of this year a new gas discovery near the Egyptian coast, the "Noor" field, located in the Mediterranean about 50 km north of Sinai. Furthermore, according to the 2010 US Geological Survey estimate, there is a possibility of approximately 122 trillion cubic meters of undiscovered gas sources in the Levant Basin off the coasts of Syria, Lebanon, the Jew's entity, Egypt, and Cyprus, in addition to approximately 107 billion barrels of extractable oil.
As you can see, the wealth is indeed immense.
2- Importance of the gas wealth in the Eastern Mediterranean
This importance stems not only from the significance of the gas discovery itself but also from the geopolitical importance of the broader region, which is the Middle East, containing about 47% of the world's oil reserves and 41% of its gas reserves. Its importance is further increased by the Mediterranean's openness to the intersection of Asia, Europe, and Africa, and its connection to global trade routes via the Suez, Bosporus, and Gibraltar straits. With successive discoveries, these estimates have raised the hopes of Eastern Mediterranean countries, whetted the appetite of oil and gas companies, inflamed regional competition for resources, and attracted the attention of international powers to an additional wealth and a potential flashpoint.
Second: The Competing Countries Over Eastern Mediterranean Gas:
1- Coastal Mediterranean Countries
A- Turkish Cyprus - Greek Cyprus: Turkish Cyprus considers the island's resources to belong to all its people and that they should not be exploited in isolation from the other party. However, Greek Cyprus ignored this and finalized the demarcation of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), enabling it to exploit gas wealth unilaterally in 2010. This prompted Turkish Cyprus to respond with a similar step, defining its maritime borders (Turkey signed an agreement to demarcate the continental shelf with Northern Cyprus on 15/09/2011... Ahval News on 08/11/2018). As a result of these procedures, an overlap occurred between the areas defined by the two Cypriot parties (Turkish and Greek). (Therefore, the Republic of Northern Cyprus claims its right in several areas demarcated by Greek Cyprus in 2010... Turk Press on 11/07/2019).
B- The European Union: Its priority is to enhance energy security to diversify import sources and supply routes, especially with the deterioration of European-Russian relations and under the pressure of American sanctions in recent years. In this context, Eastern Mediterranean gas contributes to this equation and reduces the near-total dependence on Russian gas, particularly for Eastern and Southern European countries... Thus, the EU is present in the equation through some of its member states like Greek Cyprus and Greece, and through oil and gas exploration companies.
C- Turkey: Turkey is not a member of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which allows for the demarcation of maritime zones; one reason is its dispute with Greece in the Aegean Sea. Turkey considers that the Exclusive Economic Zone defined by Greek Cyprus overlaps with the Turkish continental shelf and its own EEZ, even though it has not been officially declared... Based on these claims, Turkey does not recognize the agreements made by (Greek) Cyprus to demarcate its EEZ with Egypt, the Jew's state, and Lebanon, and considers the awarding of tenders to foreign companies for gas exploration in this area illegal as it violates Ankara's rights... Erdogan said in a speech to supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he leads, as part of the 18th anniversary of its founding in Ankara: ("We are present in the Eastern Mediterranean through Turkish ships, and naval forces protect those ships." Erdogan stressed that Turkey continues exploration activities in the region "licensed by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus"... Sawt al-Imarat on 24/08/2019).
D- The Jew's State Usurping Palestine: Increasing gas discoveries help the Jew's entity liberate itself from its previous dependence on Egypt and fill a large gap in its energy sector. Not only that, but gas in the occupation's calculations has turned into a political and security lever, and an effective political weapon for normalization with several neighboring Arab countries, especially Egypt, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, and Jordan. Also, ("Israel" reached an agreement with Greece, Cyprus, and Italy to extend a pipeline at a cost of six billion euros ($6.8 billion) to transport gas from "Israel" to the three countries... Shorouk News on 25/11/2018), all because Europe seeks to diversify its energy sources.
E- Egypt: Gas does not only hold economic value for the Egyptian regime; more importantly, it is considered a tool for stabilizing the ruling system and obtaining the required regional and international legitimacy in the absence of internal legitimacy that would allow the Egyptian people to optimally benefit from the country's wealth. Early this year, Egypt, the Jew's state, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine announced the "East Mediterranean Gas Forum." (In January, Egypt, "Israel," Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine announced from Cairo the establishment of what is known as the "East Mediterranean Gas Forum." The forum excluded Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkish Northern Cyprus from its membership at its inception, despite being countries overlooking the Eastern Mediterranean basin... Khaleej Online on 15/01/2019).
F- There are other coastal Mediterranean countries but they lack influence or impact (Syria in its current situation... Lebanon, although it signed agreements with French, Italian, and Russian companies, has not yet started and may be delayed due to the interference of the Jew's state... then the Authority!).
2- Non-Coastal Countries
A- America: It views the region through a broader framework related to its priorities in the Middle East, which are often linked to ensuring the flow of energy and protecting the Jew's entity. The United States is present in the Eastern Mediterranean through its companies and its agents in the region. Moreover, its exports of liquefied gas to Europe are increasing, which may affect its view of the region's gas in the future.
B- Russia: Although gas in the Eastern Mediterranean does not constitute a substitute for Russian gas nor does it compete with it, Moscow wants to ensure its monopoly on the European market by also being present in any complementary or alternative gas projects so that they do not negatively affect it; this is exactly what it is doing... Moscow is present in the conflict over gas in the Eastern Mediterranean through gas exploration companies (the case of Lebanon), through financial funding (the case of Greek Cyprus and Greece), and through military presence and bilateral agreements (the case of Syria).
Third: Exploitation of Gas in the Conflict Between Economically and Politically Influential Countries
1- Regarding the European Union: On December 20, 2018, Greece, Cyprus, and the Jew's entity announced that they were ready to move forward with a US-backed pipeline project to transport natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe. This pipeline (EastMed) will transport gas from the sea between occupied Palestine and Cyprus to EU markets via Greece. It is expected to transport about 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the EU via Greece and Italy. The EU's purpose is to diversify its natural gas imports away from Russian gas. The EastMed project will meet approximately 10-15% of the EU's projected natural gas needs, thereby enabling the EU to diversify energy sources, and Russia loses its influence related to gas prices over the EU... The EU will likely try to lower market prices for gas, which have risen steadily over the past few years...
2- This is from Europe's side. As for America's side, the United States has put pressure on Russia by imposing sanctions on it and its allies, especially Germany, to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, claiming that this project would push Russian gas deep into Western Europe and enable Russia to exert greater influence over European foreign policy, allowing it to use energy as a tool to pressure any country. Consequently, the United States is working hard to push EU countries to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States instead of Russia as a means of diversifying and securing energy supplies and creating a competitive climate. This undoubtedly affects the "Nord Stream 2" (North Stream 2) project: (which involves the construction of two gas pipelines across the Baltic Sea to Germany with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, while several countries oppose this project, such as Ukraine and the USA... Sputnik News on 01/04/2019).
3- Competition and conflict between the United States and Russia regarding natural gas supplies have increased. Since the European Union, as a superpower composed of 28 countries with a total population of about 512 million people, is an important market for the world's largest energy exporters, especially natural gas, Russia has long been interested in it, being the dominant source and supplier of natural gas to the European market. Now America has entered the scene, looking to challenge Russia by increasing its exports of American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), as it is easier and safer to store and transport. On the other hand, it is considered expensive due to the effort required to liquefy and transport it compared to gas transported in pipelines and other energy sources. However, if priced competitively, it could play an increasing role in the EU's gas supply, posing a potential threat to Russia... America has already started this; the volume of LNG supplied from the United States to the EU reached about 24% of total US LNG production in October 2018, compared to about 10% of US exports that went to the EU in 2017—the year America first began to emerge as a gas exporter. During the first months of 2019, EU imports of US gas reached about 13%, making it the third-largest supplier to the EU. This is due to increased production from shale fields in America.
4- In short, with Russia's dominance over EU gas supplies and the heavy reliance on them, the necessity of diversifying energy sources increases. Therefore, the EU is keen to support the EastMed project and diversify its natural gas imports away from Russian gas, which is subject to severe American sanctions, especially after the decline in North Sea gas production. At the same time, America wants to control the European market by pushing EU countries to buy liquefied natural gas from the United States instead of Russia; hence, it directly obstructs the "Nord Stream 2" project that connects Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea.
5- Thus, the Middle East, which is essentially an Islamic region, has been endowed by Allah with immense wealth in oil, gas, minerals, etc. However, those who plunder and enjoy it are the colonial disbelievers along with the Jew's state usurping the Blessed Land of Palestine... All of them enrich their economies, move their factories and markets with it... and a portion of it reaches their agent rulers who treat it as their private property, even though this wealth is public property (mulk 'amm) for the people, its rightful owners, and not for its usurpers! It is the duty of the Ummah to move to change these oppressive rulers who enable the colonial disbelievers to plunder our wealth... causing the Ummah to remain in a state of living hardship, not benefiting from its wealth while surrounded by it: Like camels in the desert killed by thirst, while water is carried upon their backs.
Silence regarding the oppressor and failing to work to change him with sincerity to Allah and truthfulness to the Messenger of Allah ﷺ, this silence does not save the one who remains silent from the consequence of oppression; rather, it afflicts both the oppressor and those who are silent about him:
وَاتَّقُوا فِتْنَةً لَا تُصِيبَنَّ الَّذِينَ ظَلَمُوا مِنْكُمْ خَاصَّةً وَاعْلَمُوا أَنَّ اللَّهَ شَدِيدُ الْعِقَابِ
"And fear a trial which afflicts not only those who have done wrong among you in particular, and know that Allah is severe in penalty." (QS. Al-Anfal [8]: 25)
It afflicts the oppressor for his oppression and afflicts others for their silence about the oppressor and their failure to work to change him...
إِنَّ فِي هَذَا لَبَلَاغاً لِقَوْمٍ عَابِدِينَ
"Indeed, in this [Quran] is notification for a worshipping people." (QS. Al-Anbiya [21]: 106)
2 Muharram 1441 AH 01/09/2019 CE