Question:
The significant achievement of the previous US administration in Syria, represented by handing Aleppo over to the Syrian regime, coincided with its departure. That administration was following a plan that began to bear "fruits" during its final moments. Now, following the arrival of the new president Trump's administration on 20/01/2017, what is expected from Trump's policy in building upon those "fruits" in Syria? Can we expect certain broad outlines for Trump's international policy regarding Russia, China, the European Union, and specifically Britain? Furthermore, how do we interpret the escalation of violent and shameless rhetoric from Trump toward Islam and Muslims? May Allah reward you with Khair.
Answer:
Although not much time has passed since Trump's inauguration as President of the United States for his policy to be precisely known, and despite the fact that his campaign statements do not necessarily provide a complete picture of his executive policy, some of the verbal and actual statements issued by him during the days since he took power give an idea of his policy to an extent. Taking these verbal and actual statements into account, while realizing that American policy is managed by institutions that are not significantly affected by the President—rather, it is the styles and means that differ—we answer the queries raised in the question as follows:
First: Trump’s policy in building on the "fruits" of the Obama administration in the Syrian crisis:
Yes, the previous US administration's plan bore "fruits" toward its end, which is evident from Turkey's success in pressuring the armed factions. Turkey had gained many of the keys to the Syrian opposition throughout the years of the revolution, but many reasons prevented Washington from investing in those keys. After US President Obama met with Turkish President Erdogan on 01/04/2016 and the Turkish President responded to American demands, Turkey began to shift its position regarding the Syrian crisis. It turned its back on Europe, reconciled with Russia, and subsequently launched what became known as Dera’ al-Furat (Euphrates Shield) in Syria on 24/08/2016. That operation, under pressure, represented the first point of attraction for the armed opposition loyal to Turkey, in order to divert them from fighting Bashar's army in Aleppo and elsewhere. Consequently, Turkish pressure continued more severely on those factions as they found themselves at the critical moment where they had to pay the price for Turkish support. Those armed factions responded to Turkey, surrendered Aleppo, and withdrew from it on 14/12/2016. Turkish pressure did not stop there; these factions found themselves facing a strong Turkish push toward negotiating with the Russian criminal in Ankara. This ended with the factions in Ankara signing a ceasefire announced by Russian President Putin from Moscow on 29/12/2016, and the start of preparations for the Astana negotiations in the capital of Kazakhstan on 23/01/2017.
The outward appearance of these actions clearly indicated that America's plan had begun to bear fruit. America found its way to solving the dilemma of the armed factions, which for years had represented a major obstacle to the negotiation path, after America found that the keys to these factions had effectively gathered in Erdogan's grip. Turkey showed unparalleled sincerity in achieving America's goals regarding the armed factions, completing its turnaround with them from a supporter to a mediator, then to a pressurer and a discourager, until it rolled them toward Astana in Kazakhstan. Turkey continued to play this role in service to America as a loyal follower even after the announcement of President-elect Trump’s victory on 09/11/2016, and did not even think about any possible changes after he assumed office on 20/01/2017.
The Trump administration has begun to reap the "fruits" of what the Obama administration sowed regarding the armed opposition in Syria. That is, it is reassured that Turkey holds a firm grip on the situation of the armed factions and holds the keys to war and peace for them. Furthermore, the outbreak of fighting between the groups participating in Astana and the rejecting factions that America classifies as "terrorist" is something America wants because it weakens the front against the regime and makes the path easier for the regime. This is especially true since Turkey has begun classifying factions as terrorist or non-terrorist; some factions it did not previously classify as terrorist were reclassified as such after the Astana meeting on 23/01/2017, leading to fighting between "terrorists" and "non-terrorists" according to the classification! As Reuters quoted a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry on 26/01/2017, Turkey now classifies Jabhat Fath al-Sham (Nusra) as terrorist, whereas before the Astana meeting, it did not. Consequently, internal fighting broke out among the factions. This indicates the "fruits" that America is reaping in Syria due to Turkey's loyalty to it!
Second: As for Trump’s approach toward Russia:
It consists of tempting them with soft words but with a clear, actual threat that Russia must implement America's interests and follow behind America without being given the reins of effective initiative by America pushing it from behind a curtain, as Obama did. Thus, Trump agrees with Obama on the goal—serving America's interests—but differs in style. He makes Russia feel the soft words from Trump so it draws closer to him, while simultaneously realizing the weight of pressure from Trump so it implements his policy, particularly toward China. Trump is not satisfied with merely demoting Russia’s status by making Turkey the counterpart to Russia instead of America in Syrian negotiations; he also takes influential positions that shake the Russian leadership. Indicators of these positions are already being seen and heard, including:
Since Trump showed flexibility toward Russia during his election campaign, Russia thought that scheduling the Astana meeting after Trump’s inauguration would make America elevate the status of the conference by attending at a high level. Russia was waiting on pins and needles for President Trump to take office, hoping his Secretary of State would attend. Therefore, Russia was looking forward to the Astana conference being a launchpad for comprehensive peace negotiations between the Syrian opposition and Bashar’s government with Trump’s support. This was confirmed by BBC on 30/12/2016, quoting Lavrov: "For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that his ministry has begun preparations for a meeting to solve the Syrian crisis in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan." This was a result of Russia's political stupidity in thinking Trump supports them! Thus, the invitation was sent to Washington to attend the conference, expecting a high-level delegation. The slap they received was that Washington-Trump participated in the Astana negotiations by sending the US Ambassador in Astana as an observer! Consequently, the Astana negotiations were held on 23/01/2017 and ended on 24/01/2017 without any significant result regarding the ceasefire—in fact, firing intensified on Wadi Barada—and naturally without any political solution. Thus, the Astana negotiations fell far below the level Russia wanted, ending in a stalemate around the ceasefire issue.
Then came another slap, larger than the first, which was President Trump's announcement that he ("will definitely establish safe zones in Syria" to protect people fleeing violence there) (Reuters, 26/01/2017). This was done without consulting Russia. (The Kremlin responded to the statements of US President Donald Trump... by denying the existence of prior coordination between the White House and Moscow regarding the step, calling on him to study what it described as the "potential consequences" of this decision. Dmitry Peskov, the press spokesman for the Russian President, said on Thursday... "No, our American partners did not consult with us. It is a sovereign decision for them. The important thing is that this does not lead to a deterioration in the situation of refugees...") (CNN Arabic, 26/01/2017). America acts in this manner reassured of Russia's inability to take any effective reaction, as America has completed the process of entangling Russia in Syria. Russia’s exit from Syria has become difficult, perhaps a dream in the Kremlin... and it needs America to find a way out!
Downsizing the Russian role in Syria: America's policies in Syria, such as those announced by Trump regarding safe zones, would blow up the Russian role in Syria and threaten the "grandeur" achievements Russia reaped through the Syrian crisis. Among the first features of Trump’s policies for Russia in Syria is asking it to fight the DAESH organization in a way that threatens to limit its role to that alone. Even if it is given a role, it will be marginal, following America's plans. Meanwhile, America is reclaiming the initiative directly, without needing to hide behind Russia's positions. Some news reports have indicated this; Russia Today reported on 27/01/2017: ("The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump will demand the Pentagon prepare a more aggressive plan to fight the DAESH organization in Syria, and another plan regarding 'safe zones' within 3 months. The newspaper quoted administration officials saying Trump will task the Defense Secretary with preparing a plan for action in Syria, which may include deploying American artillery on Syrian soil or launching attacks using American combat helicopters... Officials said Trump will demand the Pentagon submit the new plan within 30 days... Among the possible options mentioned by the newspaper are expanding the use of US special operations forces, increasing the number of American military personnel deployed in Iraq and Syria, as well as granting the Pentagon and field commanders additional powers to speed up the decision-making process"). This policy requires reducing Russia’s role in Syria, making the new American-Russian agreement regarding Syria one of several international items to be agreed upon and bargained over, most importantly Ukraine and serving America on the Chinese front. This American orientation toward Russia is confirmed by President Trump’s lack of haste in lifting sanctions on Russia (The US President said it is too early to talk about lifting sanctions imposed on Russia) (Al Jazeera Net, 28/01/2017), and his lack of confirmation regarding improving relations with them (Trump stressed that improving relations between the US, on one hand, and Russia and China on the other, would be a positive step, but the new US President admitted the possibility that this might not happen...) (Russia Today, 27/01/2017).
Third: The expected approach of Trump toward the European Union, especially Britain:
Trump carries within him America's dreams of dismantling the European Union. He lacks diplomacy and does not hide this. Even before his election victory, he praised Britain's exit from the European Union, publicly calling on others to follow its example and leave Brussels. While American trends toward dismantling the European Union are old, what is new in Trump's policy is advocating for it without any diplomatic cover. This led French President Hollande on 27/01/2017 to consider President Trump the biggest challenge facing the European Union, saying: ("In a speech delivered on the sidelines of the summit of EU and Mediterranean countries, Hollande said: 'When we hear statements about Europe from the President of the United States, and when he talks about Brexit as a model for other European countries, I believe it is our duty to respond to him.'") (Russia Today, 28/01/2017).
Trump does not hide his admiration for Britain. (US President Donald Trump praised the "very special relationship" between his country and Britain, stressing during his reception of British Prime Minister Theresa May that "a free and independent Britain is a blessing to the world.") (Al Jazeera Net, 28/01/2017). Before that, he had promised the leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, to return the bust of Churchill to the White House which Obama had removed, and he indeed returned it. That British party leader was the first foreign official to meet the President-elect at Trump Tower after his victory was announced.
Confirming these American orientations toward Britain, Trump stated during the joint press conference with Prime Minister May: ("Trump said that 'the special relationship between the two countries is one of the greatest forces in history for achieving justice and peace. Today, the United States renews its close and deep ties with Britain, whether on the military, financial, cultural, or political level. We pledge to provide permanent support for this very special relationship.'") (BBC, 28/01/2017).
The new British policy after Brexit and Trump's victory can be summarized as Britain preparing itself for new orientations liberated from the European Union after the referendum on 23/06/2016. Therefore, it is searching in all directions to revive Britain's international policy. When Trump won in America on 08/11/2016, Britain viewed him as a great opportunity due to his limited political experience, his promises of change, and his slogans. This explains why Theresa May was the first leader to meet the new President Trump in Washington on 27/01/2017, initiating advice to him—especially on the Russian side—and offering a joint deal to fight DAESH in Syria, effectively placing Britain alongside America internationally once again.
With the convergence of Britain's new orientations and the Trump administration's goals, it has become in America's high interest to make Britain's exit from the EU a model to be followed. This orientation has its requirements, such as signing important trade agreements with Britain that make EU countries crave similar deals, and highlighting an international role for Britain as a reward if it becomes the knot by which the European Union is dismantled. This can be read in the orientations of both the British and American sides (Trump reaffirmed his support for Britain's decision to leave the EU, while May expressed her hope that reaching a swift trade agreement with Washington would help ease the effects of Brexit.) (Al Jazeera Net, 28/01/2017).
Fourth: How to explain the escalation of the violent and shameless attack by Trump against Islam and Muslims, we mention the following matters:
The attack on Islam and Muslims is not from Trump alone; rather, it is from all Western rulers. However, they differ in their styles. Some wrap the poison in a bit of fat... For example, Obama at the beginning of his term visited the capitals of Muslim countries (Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey) and showed a soft style toward Muslims. Yet his repeated aggressions against Muslim lands and the number of deaths, especially via drone strikes, may be more than what occurred under other rulers. Trump, however, displayed a blatant violent attack without needing to wrap the poison in fat, even before his term began. Thus, the hateful Crusader view against Islam and Muslims exists within America and the West in general.
America and the West realize that Muslims have no state to care for their affairs and pay those countries back twofold if they attack Islam and Muslims. These countries also realize that the rulers in the Muslim lands do not owe loyalty to Islam as much as they owe loyalty to the Kafir colonizers. That is, they do not stand in the face of America and the West in defense of Islam and Muslims; rather, they sometimes—actually, in many cases—show hostility toward Islam that matches the hostility of the Kafir colonizers. Therefore, the West and America find nothing to deter them if they carry out violent attacks on Islam and Muslims; this is what emboldens them in their aggression without any accountability.
When the Muslims had a state—and they will have one, by Allah’s leave—they were a force for truth that was reckoned with. Oppressors and tyrants did not dare to commit aggression against Islam and Muslims. If they slipped and committed an attack, they met a powerful response that displaced those behind them. Historical facts speak of this, and the Kafir colonizers know them well. Therefore, they exert every effort so that the state of the Muslims, the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly Guided Caliphate), does not return to establish the truth and nullify falsehood. This is a solid matter that no person of sight and insight can deny. For example, when a Roman on the outskirts of the Muslim lands dared to wrong a Muslim woman and she cried out "Wa Mutasimah" (O Mu’tasim), the Khalifah led an army at its head, not allowing anyone else to lead it. He set out to the birthplace of that Roman, took retribution from him and his homeland, opened those lands, spread goodness within them, and removed the evil from them. Similarly, when the ruler of Sindh attacked a ship containing Muslim women and took them as captives, the Khalifah sent word to his governor to take retribution from that oppressive ruler. Muhammad bin Qasim led an army, rescued the Muslim women, took retribution from that tyrant ruler, and opened the lands of Sindh. Furthermore, when the author of a play containing unseemly words about the Messenger of Allah ﷺ tried to perform it in a theater in Britain, Britain—which was the "Great" power at the time—offered a formal apology to the embassy of the Ottoman State in London. This is how the Muslims were when their state was established; no one like Trump or other tyrants of the earth would have dared to let their tongues utter or their feet move with any ill intent toward Islam and Muslims, except that their tongues would be cut and their feet broken.
Today, the Holy Qur'an is attacked, the Messenger ﷺ is insulted, and the lands of the Muslims are assaulted, and the aggression is not repelled! This is only due to the absence of the Imam, the Khilafah Rashidah, through whom Allah's words in the authentic Hadith narrated by Bukhari and Muslim from Abu Hurayrah (may Allah be pleased with him) will be fulfilled:
إِنَّمَا الْإِمَامُ جُنَّةٌ، يُقَاتَلُ مِنْ وَرَائِهِ، وَيُتَّقَى بِهِ
"The Imam is but a shield, behind whom you fight and by whom you are protected."
And that is not difficult for Allah. The days alternate:
وَتِلْكَ الْأَيَّامُ نُدَاوِلُهَا بَيْنَ النَّاسِ
"And these days [of varying conditions] We alternate among the people." (Surah Ali 'Imran [3]: 140)
Indeed, Islam has men who have been true to their covenant with Allah. Their resolve will not weaken, nor will their strength soften until Allah's promise is fulfilled at their hands, and they establish the Khilafah Rashidah after this tyrannical rule (Hukm Jabbari), as stated in the authentic Hadith narrated by Ahmad and at-Tayalisi: Hudhayfah said: The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
ثُمَّ تَكُونُ جَبْرِيَّةً، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ
"...then there will be a tyrannical rule, and it will remain as long as Allah wills it to remain. Then He will lift it when He wills to lift it. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood."
And Allah is Almighty, All-Wise.
8th Jumada al-Ula 1438 AH 05/02/2017 CE