Answer to a Question
The Question:
On 20/12/2021, Al Jazeera published on its website: [The Ukrainian army and pro-Moscow separatists exchanged fire, resulting in casualties on both sides... These developments come one day after the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, announced that his country had prepared a detailed action plan involving all agencies and sectors of the army, for the first time in the country's history, in anticipation of any invasion by Russia, as he put it. Ukraine had accused Russia of mobilizing up to 100,000 troops near its borders in preparation for an attack by the end of next January... However, Russia denied that it was planning to invade Ukraine... Al Jazeera 20/12/2021]. So, what is the reality of this crisis, its dimensions, and its motives? And what is expected from this escalation, especially the Russian-American one?
The Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
Tsarist Russia controlled the lands of Ukraine during the sixteenth century, after which the people of Ukraine began to share with the Russians their colonization of other regions and assist them in colonizing other peoples. So much so that colonized peoples rarely distinguished between Russians and Ukrainians, especially since both are of the Slavic race. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, and Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, it became the second state in the "Soviet Union" space with a unique location north of the Black Sea and a large population reaching 40 million. It possessed an industrial infrastructure no less than its Russian counterpart and a nuclear arsenal representing one-third of the Soviet legacy, before being stripped of it under an American-Russian agreement with Ukraine in exchange for an American-Russian pledge to preserve Ukraine's territorial integrity and safeguard its independence. Ukraine went through long and arduous negotiations with Russia regarding the "Soviet" Black Sea Fleet, most of which Russia inherited and which remained stationed in the port of Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula within Ukraine under a lease agreement.
Russia's power failed to return Ukraine to its embrace in every conflict with Ukraine, whether it was the matter of partitioning the Black Sea Fleet in the early nineties, or the matter of the long and extensive gas pipelines that the Soviet Union had built inside Ukraine to transport gas from Russian territory to Europe. Following this, Russia's need for alternative lines emerged, such as the TurkStream line across the Black Sea or the Nord Stream line across the Baltic Sea to Germany. This also extended to commercial matters, where the Russian market was in dire need of sugar and oils produced by Ukraine's fertile lands, or the matter of Ukraine's membership in various bodies established by Russia for the countries of the former Soviet system. Subsequently, Ukrainian orientations toward the European Union and NATO emerged. All these Russian conflicts with Ukraine did not enable Russia to regain hegemony over Ukraine over the past three decades despite Russia's military superiority...
Ukraine is Russia's front yard; for Russia, it is not like Central Asia, for example, which is a backyard in terms of location, national ties, religion, and history. Ukraine is the front face of Russia and its international status; it overlooks the Black Sea and controls it, in addition to its overlook over the Islamic Caucasian regions that Russia annexed throughout history. From Ukraine's fertile lands, Russia finds its food security in basic commodities that protect it from the fluctuations of its relations with the West, and through it, it crosses into Eastern Europe whether via gas pipelines or otherwise. Above all this, Ukraine today represents the last buffer zone to solve Russia's historical complex, represented by the fear of Europe, from which it was invaded twice (Napoleon and Hitler). If the weakness of the Soviet state forced it to abandon Eastern Europe as a buffer zone, then in the face of NATO's advance to Eastern Europe, it wants at least its neighbors Ukraine and Belarus to provide the zone that isolates it from the dangers of NATO and the advance of its military machine toward the east. Today, Russia wants to prevent Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or supporting it (Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov considered that American military support for Ukraine is a "serious challenge to Russia's security"... Al-Ain News, 13/04/2021).
The West, and especially America, realized the reality of this Ukrainian knot in Russian politics, and that Ukraine represents Russia's weakest flank, especially after the national movements in Ukraine grew stronger and their hostility toward Russia became rooted. Therefore, for two decades, Ukraine has become a focal point of friction for America and Europe with Russia. Following the Orange Revolution that ousted the pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Yanukovych, in 2014, Moscow responded in the same year by severing the Crimean Peninsula located in the south from Ukraine and annexing it to Russia, which possesses strategic and huge military bases on the peninsula. It did not stop there but pushed Russian separatists in Ukraine to ignite the eastern regions and declare the independence of two provinces (Donetsk and Luhansk), which the Russians called "Little Russia," providing them with military support. All this pushed Ukraine into the arms of the West. Ukraine thereafter began to demand and insist on joining NATO in the hope that it would protect it from Russian aggression. The West began to bring it closer and appear as its defender; thus, Ukraine began to be invited to European meetings and NATO meetings, especially when crises with Russia intensified, without being a member of the European Union or NATO. America began to arm it and provide it with military aid worth billions of dollars and began training its army...
Russia has fallen under harsh Western sanctions (European and American) since its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, so it tried to compensate by increasing its economic relations with China. It extended pipelines to China to transport oil and gas and opened a land corridor (railway) for China to transport Chinese goods directly to Europe—meaning it cooperated with it within the framework of China's great project, the "Silk Road." Moreover, it began to get rid of its stock of US bonds and dollars and largely liberated its trade from the dollar. Although Russia is not a commercial giant like Europe or China, America saw that Russia was challenging American economic hegemony and boldly inciting other countries to do so. This is evident in most Russian commercial contracts, especially with China, by adopting local currencies as an alternative to the dollar. This was a threat to America, to which was recently added what Russia was accused of regarding raising gas prices to be a new economic dilemma for Europe.
Russia looks at the great dimensions and advantages of Ukraine in terms of history, hegemony, economy, and security—i.e., the buffer zone from NATO. Thus, it considers it a red line. (Putin warned NATO against deploying its forces and weapons in Ukraine, saying: "The expansion of NATO's military infrastructure in Ukraine is a red line for Russia and will lead to a strong response," but US President Joe Biden said that he does not respect anyone's red lines regarding Ukraine. Noon Post, 04/12/2021). For all these reasons, Russia, while managing the current Ukrainian crisis, is not in a position to abandon Ukraine and leave it as easy prey for America and NATO, especially after it experienced and endured Western sanctions. Moreover, it sees that America's main concern today is confronting China, meaning that America will not proceed with admitting Ukraine to NATO membership because of the American resources required to defend Ukraine, as that would weaken American preparations in the Far East to face China... Similarly, Russia does not give weight to Europe, which is militarily weaker and significantly dependent on Russia for energy supplies. This means that Russia feels the international circumstance is favorable for it to achieve success in Ukraine. Therefore, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed his American counterpart Antony Blinken that Moscow needs ("long-term security guarantees at its western borders that would stop the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO - toward the east... adding: 'which must be considered an imperative demand'"), as reported by the Libyan Al-Wasat portal on 02/12/2021.
These are the realities of the demands from the Russian side that stand behind this escalation in Ukraine. Russia sees that the West is increasing the armament of Ukraine and that the West could push Ukraine, after strengthening its army, to eradicate the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and could push it thereafter to war in the Crimean Peninsula. All of this is a danger to Russia. The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said, ("Supplying Ukraine with planes, drones, and helicopters will push Kyiv to take dangerous steps... but any provocations by Kyiv to resolve the situation in Donbas by force will be suppressed." RT, 09/12/2021). Thus, the current crisis reveals that Russia aims, firstly, not to have the continued presence of Crimea as part of it questioned, but rather wants it to be a fait accompli with international American-European recognition. The second goal is for eastern Ukraine to be outside the authority of Ukraine and ruled as part of Russia. The third and most influential goal is to prevent Ukraine's accession to NATO and that it needs guarantees for that, especially after the joint military maneuvers between NATO and Ukraine in the Black Sea, where Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the time ("that the recent maneuvers conducted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 'NATO' in the Black Sea exceeded all limits, and he considered that the West does not take his country's warnings seriously enough. In a speech delivered to foreign policy officials in Moscow, the Russian President pointed out that the flight of NATO strategic bombers 20 kilometers from his country's borders exceeds all permitted limits. He said, 'Our Western partners are escalating the situation by supplying Kyiv with modern lethal weapons and conducting provocative military maneuvers.'" Al Jazeera Net, 18/11/2021).
America responded to Russia's demands by holding a summit between Presidents Putin and Biden on 07/12/2021. The Ukrainian crisis was its main topic but not the only one. During the summit, it appeared that Russia was demanding America to recognize the red lines it draws in Ukraine, and it also appeared that America was warning Russia of economic sanctions if it proceeded to invade Ukraine—and America has nothing beyond that. The US President confirmed the day after the summit that American military intervention in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is not on the table. America threatened before the summit, through many officials, with sanctions the likes of which Russia has never seen, and spoke about stopping the flow of Russian gas in the Nord Stream line to Germany, stating that it is talking with the Germans in this regard. Its maximum option is cutting off Russia and its main bank from the international financial transfer system, even though much of Russia's trade has already moved away from the dollar.
Upon scrutiny, we find that Russia is cornering itself in a crisis that could backfire. America can push the Ukrainian president to provoke Russia so that Russia is left with no choice but to invade Ukraine, thereby getting mired in the Ukrainian quagmire and embroiled with Europe. Ukraine is not a NATO member state such that America is obliged to rush to its defense. If Russia makes the mistake of invading Ukraine, it will provide America with full justification to subjugate the European countries and bring them back under the American mantle under the pretext of standing united against Russian aggression—an outcome that contradicts the international multipolarity that Russia calls for. Furthermore, there is a horizon that Russia does not see: as a form of American pressure on Russia if it invades Ukraine, America will possess a new tool to dismantle the emerging alliance between Russia and China. It could pressure China and threaten its trade with America to distance itself from the Russia that is aggressing against Ukraine. If China submits and distances itself from Russia, America would have achieved a major goal. If Russia submits to various types of sanctions and withdraws from Ukraine after its invasion, America's demands will pursue it in eastern Ukraine and even in the Crimean Peninsula, depriving Russia of any gains from its invasion of Ukraine; rather, it will bring woes upon it. This is in addition to America inciting the Eastern European countries and pushing them to provide effective and influential military support to strike Russia in Ukraine. Perhaps the experience of exhausting Russia in Afghanistan is not far from memory. For all these reasons, Russia is playing a dangerous game around Ukraine that may become a great trap for it and backfire—like a fool who does not realize the consequences of his actions!
As for where things are headed, the matter is as follows:
a- The European countries are seeking to cool down the situation and prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. They want to soften relations with Russia to limit its risks and ensure the continued flow of Russian energy resources to Europe at reasonable prices. France, Germany, and Italy are calling for Russia's engagement in negotiations with Ukraine to resolve the crisis. For instance, (German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that his country wishes to improve relations with Russia. The minister stressed that achieving this requires progress in resolving the conflict in Donbas. RT, 23/11/2021). However, Britain may seek to heat up the situation as a form of political provocation to the European Union, which it has left! (The Chief of the British General Staff, General Nick Carter, said that there are greater risks than at any time since the Cold War of a war breaking out between the West and Russia. Al Jazeera Net, 13/11/2021). He also said ("We have to be careful" regarding the possibility of conflict in the region. General Nick Carter told the BBC that he really hopes there will be no war with Russia, but added that NATO must be ready for this possibility. BBC, 05/12/2021). Such statements from Britain are for disruption more than being omens of an actual war.
b- But the most decisive factor is America's position. It controls many of the Ukrainian government's strings. For this reason, Russia sent the request for security guarantees to America and no other country, considering the Alliance countries to be followers of its steps. Even America's delay in responding regarding security guarantees, especially the issue of Ukraine's accession to the Alliance, worries it: (In Moscow, Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, said that Moscow needs a quick American response to its proposals because the situation is difficult and liable to complication and escalation... Al Jazeera 20/12/2021). Thus:
If America decides to give Russia security guarantees in Ukraine without an agreement with it regarding China, then Russia's side will be the prevailing one in this crisis. Giving these guarantees would reveal further weakness in the American position because America would have submitted to Russia's demands and listened to Europe's calls for cooling down. This is unlikely unless a Russian concession occurs in breaking its ties with China in favor of America.
If America decides to implicate Russia and push it toward war in Ukraine, then Russia will have fallen or been made to fall into the traps of its own plan.
By pondering these matters, the most likely outcome is that a hot war between Russia and Ukraine is not expected to happen unless new developments occur by which Russia is deceived, so it starts the war and gets mired in it! The lack of expectation of war does not prevent the occurrence of skirmishes in eastern Ukraine periodically...
Similarly, it is not expected that America will obtain a total severance of Russia's ties with China... In return, Russia will not achieve its three goals... Instead, following the capitalist method of compromise, there may be a softening of positions from America toward Russia's three goals in exchange for loosening Russia's ties with China... Then Russia would dismantle its mobilizations on the borders with Ukraine, and settle for returning with its safety as its only spoil!
18th Jumada al-Ula 1443 AH
22/12/2021 CE