Answer to a Question
Question: The Syrian regime has massed its forces south of Idlib province, and Russia announced its readiness to fight the battle of Idlib—the "last big battle" in Syria. Russia also conducted the largest military maneuvers in its modern history in the Eastern Mediterranean. Many were expecting the start of battles after the Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit held in Tehran on 07/09/2018. However, Turkish President Erdogan showed opposition to the military campaign in Idlib, and the attack was replaced by the "Demilitarized Zone" agreement reached between Erdogan and Putin on 17/09/2018. What is the reason for this change? Furthermore, America threatened a harsh response if chemical weapons were used, and some European countries echoed this... So, what is the reality of the international and regional positions regarding the battle of Idlib?
Answer: To clarify the international positions regarding the battle of Idlib, we must review the following facts:
Initially, we say that America is not sincere in its pretense of supporting the opposition. It is behind the Turkish and Saudi regimes in deceiving the Syrian factions with a "carrot and stick" policy, dragging them into reconciliations and truces with the regime and handing over areas to it. In fact, America’s message to the Syrian opposition in the south was clear and explicit: they should not expect American support to repel the Syrian army's attack. Regarding Idlib, the US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, said in a press conference: ("This is a tragic situation, and if they want to continue the path of taking over Syria, they can do it," referring to the Syrian government and its allies Russia and Iran. She added: "But they cannot do it with chemical weapons..." Reuters, 04/09/2018). Thus, the declared American opposition is against the use of chemical weapons, not against the regime's control over Syria. Similarly, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, called for ("more discussions between the Turks, Syrians, and Russians on more precise counter-terrorism operations, which would be the right approach, as opposed to large-scale conventional operations. He said, 'I suggest that counter-terrorism operations be carried out in a way that minimizes the risk of innocent lives being lost'..." Reuters, 04/09/2018). America invokes the issue of chemical weapons whenever it wishes and asks the regime to act so it can be a pretext for implementing its policies. The regime is largely reassured by American support; without it, Iran and Russia would not have intervened, and Turkey and Saudi Arabia would not have pressured the armed factions to sign truces and withdraw from areas for the Syrian regime to control. Without it, the tyrant's regime would not have returned to the international community, including the Geneva negotiations, to regain the legitimacy it lost in the early years of the revolution.
America allowed Russian military intervention to support the regime. Russia, Iran, and the militias fulfilled the mission, and the regime now controls much of the Syrian territory, with Idlib being the most significant remaining area. As for Russia, it is suffering in the Syrian "quagmire" and wants to storm Idlib to end its military dilemma and devote itself to political work. America, however, wants to arrange the political solution before finishing the Idlib issue, using Idlib to blackmail Russia by prolonging or shortening its military dilemma based on Russia's approval of the American plan for a solution in Syria. This plan involves the removal of Russian military bases as a condition for the political solution that America is drafting. America makes the opposition insist on the removal of the bases as a condition for the solution, meaning Russia would leave empty-handed! Thus, Turkey's opposition to the Russian military action, which was prepared to attack Idlib, was motivated by America.
Russia continued to carry out its military mission in Syria without any horizon for a political mission after the Trump administration took office. The takeover of Ghouta occurred with significant Turkish cooperation—meaning with American approval—and the takeover of the South followed the same context. At the same time, America refuses to hold negotiations with Russia regarding Syria, indicating that the Trump administration does not see a political role for Russia, at least not before it completes its military mission! When the armed Syrian revolution was cornered in Idlib, and Russia wanted to continue its military operations, it mobilized, threatened, and maneuvered in the Mediterranean with large warships and strategic bombers, closing the airspace in the Eastern Mediterranean for the first time in its history. However, Russia found itself in a major dilemma as it witnessed things it had not accounted for, including:
a) Turkish opposition to a comprehensive operation in Idlib: Turkey did not agree to an all-out war on Idlib. (The Turkish minister considered that "terrorists" should be identified and fought, and it is not right to launch a comprehensive war on Idlib and bomb it indiscriminately. Enab Baladi, 14/08/2018). Turkey's opposition to the war became clearly evident during the Tehran conference between the presidents of Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Turkey highlighted its fears of the war on Idlib and the flow of refugees, which surprised Russia and embarrassed it by framing the war as a tool to destroy the political solution in Syria. (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that continued attacks on the opposition-held Idlib province would lead to the collapse of the political process in Syria... Youm7, 07/09/2018). Then, as the American tone rose against Russian efforts for war in Idlib, Turkey began reinforcing its observation points in Idlib with weapons—points established under the "de-escalation" agreement with Russia and Iran. (Field sources and witnesses told Sky News Arabia on Sunday that a Turkish military convoy headed to the city of Idlib... The Turkish military convoy, which entered Syrian territory from the Kafr Lusin crossing towards Idlib province and its countryside in northern Syria, includes tanks, military equipment, and ammunition... Sky News Arabia, 09/09/2018). Thus, Turkey became an obstacle to the Russian ambition of eliminating the military factions in Idlib. Because of this, a second meeting was required between Erdogan and Putin on 16/09/2018 in Sochi, only nine days after their meeting in Tehran.
b) Indicators of a shift in the Iranian position: As for Iran, it showed an unusual distinction at the Tehran summit on 07/09/2018 between moderate armed factions and "terrorist" ones in Idlib, as if it were supporting President Erdogan's position rejecting the war against the Russian position. Later, Iran's stance became clearer. (Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif revealed today, Saturday, in press statements, his country's conviction that the solution in Syria is political and not military. Zarif said in an interview with the German newspaper Der Spiegel that Iran is trying to spare Idlib what he described as a "bloodbath," referring to his country's opposition to any military attack on the region... Zaman Al-Turkiya, 15/09/2018). If this Iranian position is complete, Russia may find itself alone in the Idlib war if it insists on proceeding, and it cannot fight it alone.
c) The American Stance: Perhaps the most dangerous of all is the American position, which hastened to beat the drums of military strikes if chemical weapons were used in Idlib. Russia knows that America, through the regime, is the one that controls chemical strikes. Therefore, Russia hurried to accuse the armed opposition of preparing a chemical attack against themselves to justify an American strike, and even accused Britain of involvement in what it called a "chemical conspiracy." American strikes in general in Syria embarrass Russia greatly; moreover, the American strike this time might be harsher and broader! (Bolton said while responding to questions following a policy speech: "We have tried to convey the message in the last few days that if chemical weapons are used for a third time, the response will be much stronger." He added: "I can say that we have consulted with the British and the French, who joined us in the second strike, and they also agree with us that using chemical weapons again will lead to a much stronger response." Arabi 21, 10/09/2018). Russia fears not only a Western American strike that embarrasses it in Syria but also that it might target its forces there.
d) Israeli Military Strikes: Also, the military strike by the Jewish entity on 04/09/2018 on Wadi al-Uyun near Masyaf, west of Hama, and Baniyas in the Tartus countryside—all of which are near Russian military bases (50 km from the Russian Hmeimim base) and over the Russian base in Tartus—occurred during the massive maneuvers Russia was conducting in the Mediterranean from 01-08/09/2018. These maneuvers, which Russia promoted as the largest in modern history in the Mediterranean, involved dozens of large naval vessels and air forces. This strike by the Jewish entity carried an unprecedented challenge to Russia. (SANA reported that the Assad regime's air defenses intercepted several missiles fired by "Israeli" aircraft on the Wadi al-Uyun area... The air defense systems intercepted an "Israeli" attack by planes that sneaked at low altitude from west of Beirut and headed north targeting military sites... Al Arabiya Net, 04/09/2018). A military strike this close to Russian bases is something the Jewish entity would not dare to do without coordination with America. It perhaps carries messages that American technology is not hindered by Russian air defenses (S-400), causing Russia to fear that Western shelling might later target its bases or aircraft in Syria.
e) The Downing of the Russian Plane: This is what happened when a Russian plane was shot down in the Idlib countryside, putting Russia in an actual dilemma. (The official spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said that the "Israeli" pilots intentionally used the Russian plane as a cover, making it vulnerable to Syrian defense fire which caused it to fall. He added: "It was not possible for the 'Israeli' flight control means and F-16 pilots not to have seen the Russian plane... Nevertheless, they carried out this provocation intentionally." The plane, an Il-20 with 15 servicemen on board, crashed while returning to Hmeimim airbase... The spokesman stressed that Israel did not warn the command of the Russian forces in Syria in advance... Sky News Arabia, 18/09/2018). (The spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, announced that Israel did not warn... The notification came via the "hotline" less than a minute before the strike... Sputnik Arabic News, 18/09/2018).
All these evidences made Russia unable to resolve Idlib military to exit its dilemma, nor is it able to bear the provocations of the Jewish entity driven by America!
Thus, America wants Russia to remain stuck in Syria, unable to leave until America finishes implementing the political solution according to its plans. US National Security Advisor John Bolton announced on Wednesday during a special interview with Reuters: ("that Russia is stuck in Syria and is looking for someone else who can also fund reconstruction after the war, noting that this gives Washington leverage in negotiations with Moscow... Bolton said Washington has a hand in negotiations with Moscow because 'Russia is stuck there in Syria right now' and added 'I don't think they want to stay there'..." Source: Sputnik News Arabic, 22/08/2018). Russia has become aware of this American policy and perhaps realized that America has embroiled it in Syria. Russia is indeed stuck and cannot leave except with the permission of America, which possesses all the tools of influence in Syria. Therefore, it could not complete the attack it prepared to end the crisis in Idlib in its own way because Turkey, driven by America, objected and Iran remained silent. Thus, the Tehran meeting on 07/09/2018 failed to approve the Russian plan. Only a few days later, the Erdogan-Putin meeting was held, and the attack was replaced by the establishment of a demilitarized zone! This was with American blessing. RIA Novosti reported on 18/09/2018 from a US State Department official: "We welcome and encourage Russia and Turkey to take practical steps to prevent a military attack from the Assad government and its allies on Idlib province..." Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced on Monday the agreement with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to: (establish a "demilitarized zone" in the Idlib province by October 15, to be under the supervision of both countries... Putin considered this agreement a "serious solution"... For his part, Erdogan said: "Russia will take the necessary steps to ensure that no attack occurs on the de-escalation zone in Idlib." France 24 / AFP, 17/09/2018). Thus, Russia stopped its bombing of Idlib and withdrew its ships that were maneuvering in the Mediterranean. It continues to beg America, directly or through Turkey, to resolve the Idlib issue militarily before the political solution. However, America wants the political solution first to use it as a bargaining chip to blackmail Russia regarding its military bases. This means that the interest of Turkey, and behind it America, in preventing the Russian attack on Idlib was primarily for America's benefit, not to prevent the regime from reaching Idlib or to protect civilians. When America solidifies the solution it wants and Russia submits to it, the blood in Idlib—civilian or otherwise, demilitarized or not—will be of little consequence to them. Their history in various regions of Syria speaks to this, and their crimes precede them on every side.
This is the reality of the influential positions regarding the war on Idlib, internationally and regionally. However, there is something that can, by Allah's permission, turn the tables on the international and regional positions: that the factions in Idlib perform their role with excellence, sincerity, and devotion to Allah Almighty. These factions are of two types:
First: The military factions affiliated with Turkey. These are the ones that carried out withdrawals and betrayals in various areas, and which discuss ideas of reconciliation and truces due to intense Turkish pressure accompanied by the buying of loyalties of their leaders with Saudi money. These are the factions that Turkey dragged into the Astana negotiations, which produced the "de-escalation zones"—meaning regime control and the handing over of areas to it. Today, these factions face the truth: they were the tool to weaken the Syrian revolution and lose many areas due to Turkish promises that proved to be false. Since the ranks of these factions are not devoid of sincere individuals, a noticeable whisper approaching an audible voice has begun to circulate among them regarding Turkey's deception. Erdogan noticed this, expressing it at the Tehran summit: ("The opposition feels deceived following the developments that occurred after the establishment of those 'de-escalation' zones..." Al Jazeera Net, 07/09/2018). Erdogan admits that his plans to deceive the Syrian factions have been exposed, which he fears. These factions have not yet been driven to fight the factions that reject the peaceful solution according to the Turkish plan. The exposure of Turkish deception could be used to push these factions to fight fiercely if attacked.
Second: The other factions, often described by the media as "terrorists." This force has increased with the displacement of many revolutionaries from various regions in Syria like Ghouta, the South, Homs, eastern Aleppo city, and others. This force controls significant parts of the region. Despite differences in numbers and weaponry, the source of fear regarding them can be summarized by what previous American reports mentioned: that the "extremist" forces in the Syrian opposition, though not the most numerous, are the ones who fight the major main battles on the Syrian stage. Meaning, they are a solid force not easily defeated, especially since the Idlib region is considered the last area for the revolutionaries. Fighting there will generally be fierce because the revolutionaries are besieged with no other exit. For all these reasons, the battle from a military perspective is not necessarily decided in favor of the regime despite the large military buildup Russia prepared. In fact, a long battle in Idlib and the concentration of the regime's local forces and sectarian allies there might open the door wide for other areas previously controlled by the regime to slip away.
Therefore, if these factions of all types are sincere in their deen to Allah, exploit Russia's dilemma resulting from American pressure, and break free from Turkey's deceptions and Saudi money... and before and above all that, they always remember His saying, Glorified be He:
كَمْ مِنْ فِئَةٍ قَلِيلةٍ غَلَبَتْ فِئَةً كَثِيرَةً بِإِذْنِ اللَّهِ
"How many a small force has overcome a large force by Allah's permission." (QS. Al-Baqarah [2]: 249)
So they do not submit or surrender, and they support Allah with truthfulness and sincerity, then they will, by Allah's permission, thwart the plans of the enemies of Islam and the Muslims and turn them back from Idlib disappointed.
وَلَيَنْصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَنْ يَنْصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِيٌّ عَزِيزٌ
"And Allah will surely support those who support Him. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might." (QS. Al-Hajj [22]: 40)
12th of Muharram Al-Haram 1440 AH 22/09/2018 CE