Question: America suddenly announced risks threatening its forces and interests in the Gulf originating from Iran and its loyalist groups. Consequently, it raised the alert level and dispatched an aircraft carrier and military vessels, even sending a hospital ship, suggesting an imminent confrontation in the Gulf. This coincided with America ending its policy of waivers for countries importing Iranian oil with the aim of zeroing out Iranian oil exports. Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to the oil exports of Gulf countries, and tension remains the dominant atmosphere in the region! Is the region heading toward a war fabricated by America? Or is something else intended? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer: To clarify the picture, we review the following matters:
Yes, there is a significant increase in tension in the region, including the mentioned deployment of American naval units, among them the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln—the largest aircraft carrier it possesses, carrying 90 warplanes. It also sent a squadron of B-52 bombers to its bases in the Gulf region, raised the alert level among its forces in the region, and evacuated non-essential employees from its embassy in Baghdad. It is noticeable that all of this was rapid and accompanied by threats directed at Iran. (The United States sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle East to send a "clear and unmistakable message" to Iran. National Security Advisor John Bolton said his country was acting "in response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings." The dispatch of the warship to the Gulf comes after reports of a potential attack on American forces, according to Reuters, quoting an unnamed US official... Bolton said in a statement that "The United States is deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the U.S. Central Command region to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force." BBC, 06/05/2019). Indeed, the aircraft carrier entered the Suez Canal on 09/05/2019 and reached the waters of the Arabian Sea on 14/05/2019. Media outlets reported that America (wants to send 120,000 troops to the region, which US President Trump denied, although Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan had presented the plan to Trump... RT 14/05/2019, quoting the New York Times). All of this occurred amidst potential Iranian threats (CNN had said, citing its sources on May 7, that US authorities obtained intelligence indicating that Iran intends to deploy short-range ballistic missiles on its small ships in the Gulf. RT, 14/05/2019).
What made the American agitation of the atmosphere more than just statements was what four commercial ships were subjected to near the Emirati port of Fujairah and the attack on important Saudi oil facilities, as follows:
a- (Four commercial ships near UAE territorial waters were subjected to sabotage operations without human casualties, as confirmed today, Sunday, by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These developments come as American pressure tightens on Iran, whose President Hassan Rouhani previously admitted that his country is indeed facing a difficult situation. Middle East Online, 12/05/2019).
b- (The Yemeni "Ansar Allah" group announced today, Tuesday, the execution of drone attacks on vital Saudi facilities... Al-Masirah channel quoted a military source confirming that "7 drones carried out attacks targeting vital Saudi facilities," and the source indicated that "this large-scale military operation comes in response to the continued aggression and siege on our people," adding that "Ansar Allah is ready to execute more qualitative and harsh strikes if the aggression and unjust siege continue." Russian Sputnik Agency, 14/05/2019). With these two incidents, American statements about imminent risks in the Gulf gained a strong impact, and the American agitation and escalation of the situation in the Gulf became different from similar previous cases.
Nevertheless, despite all this tension in the Gulf region which suggests that war is at the doorstep, the statements of both sides, America and Iran, provide another picture—that war is unlikely! Among these statements:
(Trump said, in a press statement today, Thursday, at the White House, in response to a question about whether the United States intends to launch a war on Iran: "I hope not." RT, 16/05/2019).
(Reuters, 16/05/2019 - US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday that the Trump administration does not have a mandate from Congress to launch a war against Iran, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Pelosi told reporters that the Republican administration would provide a briefing in a closed session to senior lawmakers, known as the Group of Eight, regarding Iran on Thursday.)
(Reuters, 16/05/2019 - The New York Times reported on Thursday, citing unnamed US administration officials, that President Donald Trump told Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan that he does not want to go to war with Iran. The newspaper said the President told Shanahan this comment on Wednesday morning.)
(Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said there would be no war with the United States. In remarks published on state media and on his Twitter account, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: "We do not seek war, nor do they." BBC, 14/05/2019).
(Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan stated in a press conference that the US administration's goal in strengthening its military presence in the Arabian Gulf is to "deter Iran and not to fight a war against it; we are not about to go to war." France 24, 22/05/2019) End.
These American and Iranian statements indicate that what the media transmits about an imminent and major American-Iranian war is mixed with doubt. The most eloquent part of those statements is the Iranian Leader's reassurance to his people that Iran does not seek war and neither do the Americans. This means that war, in terms of destroying Iran or destroying American ships in the Gulf, is unlikely to happen according to these statements. In the extreme case, if military actions do occur, they will be limited to save face for both sides... The statements of American officials are frequent in saying they do not want regime change... US National Security Advisor John Bolton said: ("Our policy is not aimed at regime change in Iran, but at pushing the regime there to change its behavior"... Ad-Dustour website, 03/10/2018).
So, what are the reasons for this escalation and tension in the region? The answer is that upon close examination, it becomes clear that there are three reasons:
The First Reason: Global Oil Markets: America today differs regarding the issue of oil from a decade ago, as shale oil extraction technology has succeeded there, allowing it to export its oil even though it remains an oil-importing country. The Chinese outlet for reducing the trade deficit with America was to increase its imports of American oil. At the same time, America continues to import cheap oil from cheap rulers in the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, whose oil money accumulates in America without it being able to withdraw it even when needed; so it borrows and does not touch its sovereign funds, which benefit no one but America. According to this reality, American pressure on Iran and depriving it of exporting oil will raise the global oil price, and America will benefit from that. The increase in oil prices suits the cost of shale oil production. The International Energy Agency speaks about the worsening "disruption in the supply outlook" for oil and speaks about America's ability to compensate for the decrease in exports from Iran and Venezuela (The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the world will need very little surplus oil from OPEC this year, as the recovery in American production will offset the decrease in exports from Iran and Venezuela. Reuters, 15/05/2019). Likewise, (the US Energy Information Administration said this week that US oil production from the seven main shale formations will rise to a new record level of 8.49 million barrels per day in June. Reuters, 17/05/2019). This means that American oil companies are pumping more oil in light of the policy of agitating the Gulf and pushing Iranian production back through sanctions.
Most importantly, oil prices are rising due to the American agitation leading to the sabotage of oil tankers and oil facilities (Oil futures rose on Wednesday amid the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East, which harms global supplies, overshadowing the unexpected rise in US crude inventories. Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $71.77 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at $62.02 per barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.4 percent... Oil prices received support after Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that explosive-laden drones hit two oil pumping stations, two days after sabotage operations targeted oil tankers near the United Arab Emirates. Reuters, 15/05/2019).
Thus, it becomes clear that America, through its agitation of the atmosphere with Iran, benefits from the high price of oil and is able to increase its production of shale oil. Whenever the price of oil increases, American companies are driven to produce more shale oil, which exists in astronomical quantities in America. There is no doubt that America considers this tension a benefit for its oil companies, especially given the commercial thinking that dominates the Trump administration.
The Second Reason: Signing a new nuclear agreement with Iran that ensures the lion's share for American companies in the Iranian market.
It is no secret to observers that America is playing an open game with Iran to sign a new nuclear agreement that includes its missile program and its influence in the region. During the US Secretary of State's visit to Iraq, (what Pompeo told Abdul-Mahdi in reality, according to the source familiar with the details of the meeting, was something completely different; in fact, the Iraqi Prime Minister was astonished by the tone Pompeo used in his meeting with him. Pompeo asked Abdul-Mahdi to convey a message to Tehran that the United States is not keen on war breaking out and that all Trump wants is to conclude a new nuclear deal—a deal he can attribute to himself... Noon Post, 15/05/2019, quoting the British Middle East Eye). The American President does not hide this goal. (The American President expressed his desire for Iranian leaders to call him to solve the increasingly inflammatory crisis, and his administration left a phone number with the Swiss so that the Iranians could call him if they wanted to negotiate... The American President continued, saying: "What they should be doing is calling me up, sitting down. We can make a deal, a fair deal... We're not looking to hurt Iran," he added: "I want them to be strong and great and have a great economy. But they should call, and if they do, we're open to talk to them." The White House left a phone number with the Swiss, who represent Iran in its diplomatic relations with America, to be the point of contact if Tehran wished to negotiate with Washington. CNN Arabic, 11/05/2019). Likewise, RT reported on 15/05/2019 from President Trump (I am convinced that Iran will want to negotiate soon). In the same context, the Iranian website Entekhab, close to the reformists, revealed on Tuesday the goals of Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi's visit to the capital, Tehran. The site stated in its report on 21/05/2019 that (the goal of that visit is mediation between the United States and Iran, and discussing the issue of targeting the American embassy in Baghdad, and other developments in the region...) and the site added that (the Omani Minister Yusuf bin Alawi carried with him during his sudden visit to Tehran a message from American President Donald Trump) without mentioning the details.
The Third Reason: And this is the most important—the process of producing an American-Arab alliance that includes the Jewish entity to be brought into effect.
Looking at the sum of American political goals in the region and the regional positions, it becomes clear that the most important reason driving America today to agitate the atmosphere with Iran is to build this alliance and formally launch it. This means shifting the conflict in the region from a (Zionist) aggression through the occupation of the Blessed Land of Palestine—and thus the obligation to fight it to remove it and return Palestine to the Abode of Islam—to a sectarian conflict in the region with Iran! In other words, integrating the Jewish entity into the region. This goal, which America and Britain failed to achieve over decades, they hope to achieve today through the traitorous rulers, especially in the Gulf, who are racing to normalize with the Jewish entity under the same American pretexts: "fear of Iran."
This appeared clearly in the position of the Jewish entity: amidst the tension in the Gulf, the Prime Minister of the entity said in the presence of US Ambassador Friedman: ("There is a new prosperity and a new rebirth of relations between us and many of our Arab neighbors and many non-Arab Muslim countries." Netanyahu said: "We are united in the desire to stop Iranian aggression." Netanyahu added that "the State of Israel and all the countries of the region and all the countries that want to achieve peace in the world must stand together alongside the United States against Iranian aggression." The Israeli Prime Minister stressed the need to continue strengthening the power of "Israel and its important alliance with America." RT, 14/05/2019). The standing of the Jewish entity with Arab and perhaps other (Islamic) countries alongside the United States to repel "Iranian aggression" clarifies that the talk in the American agitation plan is about building a regional alliance against Iran led by the United States with the participation of the Jewish entity. The agitation, fiery statements, and some military actions as occurred in Fujairah and Aramco facilities are the process of producing this regional "NATO," and that production process is still ongoing. Among its precursors was Riyadh hosting an Arab-American meeting on Monday, 06/04/2019, in which Qatar participated, within the framework of preparations to launch the "Middle East Strategic Alliance," known in the media as the "Arab NATO." The SPA agency stated (that the meeting was held "with high-level participation from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United States of America, the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan." It explained that the meeting "is an important step among the steps to launch this alliance, which aims to enhance security and stability in the region and the world." RT, 10/04/2019). Thus, the process of building this military alliance is in full swing. The Jewish entity's joy over security coordination with Arab and (Islamic) countries against Iran means that the Jewish entity is a participant in those American deliberations with these rulers, but without an announcement. Perhaps the announcement will be delayed until after America announces its peace plan, the most important clause of which is the normalization of the traitorous Gulf rulers with the Jewish entity.
Conclusion:
The agitation of events and heating of the atmosphere is not a prelude to a comprehensive war between America and Iran. Rather, it is most likely to achieve the three reasons mentioned above. However, this does not prevent limited, short strikes from occurring to save face for both parties, as a way of removing embarrassment from them due to their inflammatory movements and statements of threat, menace, deterrence, and changing behavior!
What is painful is that although America does not hide its goals in its statements and threats, the rulers in our lands, especially the Gulf region, justify America's arrogance and its hegemony over the region as if they are deaf, dumb, and blind, not understanding. Consequently, they lose their worldly life and their Hereafter, and Allah spoke the truth:
وَمَنْ كَانَ فِي هَذِهِ أَعْمَى فَهُوَ فِي الْآخِرَةِ أَعْمَى وَأَضَلُّ سَبِيلاً
"And whoever is blind in this [life] will be blind in the Hereafter and more astray in way." (QS Al-Isra [17]: 72)
19th of Ramadan 1440 AH 24/05/2019 CE